Remaining unbeaten at home for the rest of the season

[Pugin 601]

I am confident we can remain unbeaten at home until the season end, based on recent performances. It becomes a mini-season, but the last six games are all there to be won, Imagine the momentum and belief that could snowball at Carrow Road. It could be set up for a thrilling finale that would match last season's enjoyment levels.

We will need a bit of luck facing Leicester City as are a side that could score against any side as they are so rapid and inventive in the final third, so the first challenge is huge. After that, there is no team to be terrified of because if we defend properly we are now good enough to keep clean sheets. We have improved defensively as the season has developed, Pukki has it within him to hit a scoring run, two or three or the youngsters are getting better and better, Emi may be key (or not), and Tim Krul is currently looking worth a goal a game. 

Above all else, the team has a togetherness that other strugglers can only dream about. Lifelong heroes could emerge over the next two months.

I am missing the next three games recovering from an operation, which breaks my heart, but I will be there for the run-in, confident this battle will run until the end of the season. 

Many, probably most, will disagree, as will the bookies, but I couldn't be happier to stick my neck out. Who is with me?

 

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,838]

We won our final four at home in 2004/05 when we nearly performed a miraculous escape, so such things can happen, however unlikely it may be.

We were in an even worse position than now when that run started, but West Brom survived that season on 34 points if I remember correctly, and I can't see a team staying up with that number this time round.

[Chumino 57]

We need to win them all, not remain unbeaten. 

[Upo 91]

Well, let's see if we can make Pugin's scenario happen:

We need to score theoretically at the very minimum 6 goals, in 6 games where we also keep a clean sheet. Norwich has scored on average 0,92 goals per game. There's 12 games left. 11 goals. Do you think that amongst those 11 goals we can't find 6 games where we let in 1 less than the opponent? Suddenly doesn't sound so impossible...

There's another thing. It has nearly zero predictive value towards any single game, but over the long run...Norwich as a whole has underperformed its xGs. There is bound to be a correction eventually. It's probably worth a few goals above our current trend, meaning we could expect to score 13 or even 14. Half of the goals are going to come from the Pukki, Cantwell, Duda trio. The other half the rest of the team needs to pick up.

The signs are in the air that I can imagine such chain of events materializing. But the chances are low. A convincing win on Sunday and it's a whole another outlook.

[Pugin 601]

On 21/02/2020 at 22:03, Upo said:

Well, let's see if we can make Pugin's scenario happen:

We need to score theoretically at the very minimum 6 goals, in 6 games where we also keep a clean sheet. Norwich has scored on average 0,92 goals per game. There's 12 games left. 11 goals. Do you think that amongst those 11 goals we can't find 6 games where we let in 1 less than the opponent? Suddenly doesn't sound so impossible...

There's another thing. It has nearly zero predictive value towards any single game, but over the long run...Norwich as a whole has underperformed its xGs. There is bound to be a correction eventually. It's probably worth a few goals above our current trend, meaning we could expect to score 13 or even 14. Half of the goals are going to come from the Pukki, Cantwell, Duda trio. The other half the rest of the team needs to pick up.

The signs are in the air that I can imagine such chain of events materializing. But the chances are low. A convincing win on Sunday and it's a whole another outlook.

Well, I don't know about Upo's machinations, but that will do for a start 🙂