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Christoph Stiepermann

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Posts posted by Christoph Stiepermann

  1. Posted

    On 09/12/2019 at 18:24, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:


    Nash Game Theory assumes that self-interest encourages competitors to find and use the optimum strategy in any given scenario. 

    There is criticism - common when results are negative - of tactics, substitutions, Board, philosophy, strategy, lack of Plan B* and quality. 

    There are pages of quick-fire simplistic solutions all over this board implying that ‘if only we did x, or if only we did y’ we’d be better off, surviving, thriving, competing better. 

    In that context - and to make an empirical judgment - the only meaningful question is: ‘Are we doing the best we can with the parameters we have?’

    The painful Nashian evaluation might well be that this is ‘as good as it gets’. *Plan B does not need to exist if Plan A is already the best you can do with what you have. Which is not the same as winning every (or in fact any) week.

    Farke’s defence - and by extension the Club’s unless contradicted - is that the limits of the finances (ergo the limits of the self-sustaining model) ensure that we have a ‘youthful’ (trans: naive, inexperienced as well as ‘young in age’) team that is learning on the job, increasing in education and increasing in value as an asset, further sustaining the model. 

    The concentration of youth in defence (and conversely age in attack), can be observed to be the photo-negative of the typical approach whereby (to exaggerate to make the point) old sweats - battle-hardened, scarred and negative - have the appropriate, fearful, danger-lurks-around-every-corner mindset to keep goals out, whilst young, fearless, carefree, try-anything-once, zippy-footed youngsters bear down spontaneously on goal, making it hard to determine their next move and increasing the chances of scoring. 

    That teams and players are significantly better en bloc at Premier level can be clearly noted. Systems are as strong as their weakest point and teams have the funds, depth of resources and analysis to minimise, amortise and prioritise their weaknesses. 

    The optimum strategy to disturb Norwich’s tactics philosophy might be observed to be a well-coordinated high press, with dynamic physicality and a particular focus on the dedicated tempo-playmaker (vid the targeting of Leitner).

    But wait. That’s not exactly news is it? Didn’t everyone know to do that last year in the Championship? 

    A clear example of how and why it is greater quality, finer coordination - not Norwich failing in some way - that sees our negative outcomes repeating can be seen in the intelligence, unity and coordination of the high press against us. A press that contains 6 players moving in synch not 3 makes a fundamental difference. Players that can mentally repeat this process better, for longer and can then do something penetrative and meaningful with the ball after they have achieved a turnover  (perhaps at the fourth time of trying). They then do it all again after making an assist or scoring. Do not underestimate how impressive this is. It just doesn’t exist to anything like this level in the Championship. And all Premier teams can do it. 

    Pukki’s exceptional goalscoring of course bailed us out multiple times from some average performances last season, he now gets less space, less chances and the increased pressure on defending inevitably leads to more exposure to danger and less creation. In the Championship other teams miss and waste a far higher percentage of chances, encouraging and rewarding more open strategies (to the point of cavalier: vid Alex Neil). It can be observed that you simply don’t have to focus so hard on defending and minimising chance creation against you under these parameters. That you may not be mentally, tactically or physically equipped to amend this failing at a later date at a higher level can also be observed. 

    Buendia -  arguably second in influence over outcomes last season behind Pukki - has been less able to exploit a half second of time and space than he was a full second of it in the Championship. Conversely Cantwell, statistically far less effect in the Championship than Buendia (and others) - indeed he was arguably peripheral for much of the Championship campaign - has shown himself well able to replicate what he can do at the top level with comparatively much less time to do it in. This does not inevitably meant that he will dominate - or even succeed - if returned to the Championship. 

    This is what scouts and Coaches really look for. Not really FM2019 style stats on who has done what - anybody can find and filter those - but rather ‘does what he does translate to a higher level? Will he be able to do the same thing with less time, under greater pressure, when he has to think faster, when his mistakes cost him more, when he is exposed to brighter lights?’
    You might note that England has typically dominated smaller teams - often beating them far more heavily in qualifying than other major nations - only to regularly come up short when in the latter stages of a tournament. This is why. The style of play and methodology  (until recently) dominated at lower levels and was conversely ill-suited to higher levels. One does not prove the other. 

    In the Championship goals are often scored by a relatively limited number of players. Often not lots of midfielders or defenders score repeatedly (we were an exception) and coaching dangers can be reasonably targeted on limited areas. In the Premier it is far less the case that you can discount some areas, players and possibilities as nearly all players are capable of causing problems if left unattended. 

    Norwich have also made a stylistic decision that has implications for the type of player they recruit and play as Farke has repeatedly stressed. The approach of our contemporaries is instructive here to counterpoint our philosophy. Villa and Sheffield United have followed the tried-and-tested received wisdom of the ‘winning the mini-League’ and adopting defensive-minded strategies with high physicality and athleticism to spoil, disrupt and compete with similar sides and restrict chances of big beatings - with the hope of the odd ‘cup win’ style victory against an off-colour superior. Heightened physicality -  often (outside of very high prices) with a corollary of less fluid technicality - can thus be observed as an advance acceptance of mini-league membership. We decided to do different, aware of the risks. 

    We can be observed to have attempted (actually ‘be copying’) the style of top level clubs in a desire to dominate possession and win games by ‘being better’ than the opposition. This is an ambitious and attractive approach that - let us not forget - was well able to dominate the Championship where ‘spoilers’ abound. It can be observed - currently - to be a style of play suited to playing better teams ( Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, even Liverpool) who have a similar approach, albeit with far greater resources. 

    The sit-tight-and-counter-attack approach is far safer tactically (disclaimer: it might be observed that this is actually what we de-facto did vs Man City) and whilst it concedes possession, it does not threaten your own defensive shape in the way that fluid attacking and brave chance-creation often does. 

    The apparent bete-noire for Norwich of weak set-piece defending via zonal marking is true and not true. Zonal marking exists in man-to-man marking systems too. Putting men on the posts is a zone no? The perceived danger of an opponent ‘getting a run on you’ via Zonal should be negated by simply filling the area they want to run into by having lots of strategically-placed bodies there (which we do). Opponents can’t often (if ever) score from headers from the penalty spot outwards, so we are not talking about a huge strip of zonal land here. Zonal can encourage the keeper to come more, which can equally be  good or bad. The truth is that lots of goals are scored by set pieces and good delivery is hard for anyone - and any system - to defend. Players switching off is switching off, zonal or not. If you defend a lot, you will logically have to defend more set pieces. If you defend more of them, you’ll concede more from them. Concessions from zonal do look awful though, so they may imprint deeper as a negative image on all. I would be lying if I said I thought all Norwich defenders looked comfortable with the current set piece defensive set up however. 

    Money cannot be excluded in the margins of a game either. Many Premier clubs pay high sums for game-changing Plan B subs. A Crouch, Fellaini, Carroll,  a set piece specialist (throws, direct free kicks, sharp delivery). We have a good, balanced squad with interchangeable players. We cannot buy top end weapons to sit on the bench ‘just in case’ as others can.

    As Nash knows, there is no point in Plan B if the odds still favour Plan A (even if ‘pub’ humans like change for change’s sake in the mistaken belief that it must inherently be better). There will be plenty of flaws in a 6/10 strategy and this board is full of some of them. Unfortunately too often the ‘solutions’ are simply anything and everything that the current strategy isn’t. This is easy to prescribe, though it in no way proves that any such change would derive a better outcome. It is Farke and Webber’s raison d’etre, their life’s work to achieve the best outcome, the maximum output from the resources available. Racing a Fiat against a Ferrari takes more than a good driver however. 

    We have a clear identity. A clear methodology and style of play. It is now well-drilled and established in the minds of the players. There is no confusion, no lack of cohesion, no misunderstanding of what is required individually and collectively. The players purchased fit the model well, the players grown and nurtured are well-schooled in what the coach needs and wants to achieve. This has and will create a good ‘floor’ to outcomes. Our clarity and consistency of message should and will ensure that performance levels - over an extended period (including perhaps the Championship) remain above the ‘floor’ level. 

    It would be naive and disingenuous to imagine that no corollary ‘ceiling’ exists under a self-sustaining model however. Over time - in theory - there are no limits to the model, though a 2020 Championship team without Pukki might well not repeat the surprising and wonderful victory of last season. Goals are much harder to replace than anything else - regardless of the elegant construction of any model - and they can cover a multitude of sins. If buying goals is hard, growing them is harder. 

    If the ruthless approach to transfers this season is due to a long-term infrastructure plan that included not only the training ground, but also the stadium itself, this might be a vote-winner. Giving those who earned success a fair chance is fair-minded, though perhaps romantic in professional sport. Providing an educational platform for young, ascending assets should be economically sound and admirably advertises the model to tomorrow’s candidates, though is quite possibly compromising in immediate sporting terms. 

    There is of course an issue with long-term vision and golden promises of jam tomorrow. Like it or not in our Football world there is the Premier League and far, far behind - in media, money, global interest, exposure, excitement - there is everything else. 

    There is no linear progression, football has changed. Money has changed it dramatically. Small teams historically are now strong economic entities with rich (maybe distant) owners, huge historic clubs floundering - despite maintaining gates at turnstiles - because it pales into insignificance versus TV revenues. Conversely you need a bigger stadium out of the Premier League when you no longer have guaranteed demand to fill it and - horribly - you could shut the stadium and show all your games online via Amazon and make a fortune while at the top tier. Our model is a good one, an elegant one, one to be proud of and support, much of it of eternal good sense regardless of means. Though in truth it was born out of necessity, dressed as choice. It is retrospective justification for what needs to be. We would spend more if we had it. 

    We are doing as well as we can - the manager, the players, the sporting team, the board - with what we have. Nash would be proud. 

    Parma

    Read this, enjoyed it and immediately thought of the casting pearls at swine metaphor, wcorkcanary beat me to it though. I have one follow up question Parma, I understand and enjoy our style of play for the most part, but why do we almost never switch the play horizontally? We seem to always favour playing ourselves into trouble in tight areas to concede possession or a throw in whereas most other possession based teams like to switch the play from one side to the other when they run into congested areas which often leaves the opposition exposed when they're pressing and creates a chance, i look at Leeds and Derby last year as an example. I feel this is one area of our game that we could improve on, exploit and I can't for the life of me understand why we don't especially as we often have a full back in space, unmarked on the other side of the pitch to where the ball is in most instances. It frustrates the hell out of me and I was wondering if you had any thoughts on this from a coaching perspective? Thanks. 

    • Thanks 1

  3. Posted · Edited by Christoph Stiepermann

    I;m worried about an air of apathy and disinterest in any potential promotion campaign going forwards. Part of what got us over the line last year was the fans being excited and right behind the team, i fear a return to the AN era atmosphere of disinterest. 

     

    Imagine we're going well next year, in the top3/4 still playing our style but conceding lots of goals, still looking weak in the air, still being a side that lacks pace and physicality you couldn't blame fans for being not that bothered if we get promoted or not because we know what the next season will be like.That apathy could bleed into the culture at the club and hinder us going forwards. If the atmosphere is flat and fans aren't really into it could you still see the team busting a gut and every sinew to win every ball and force the ball into the back of the net right up to the 97th minute like they were last year? i could see an air of resignation having over us.  I don't know what the solution is, but it's a concern for me.

     

     

  4. Posted

    The model is the only option we have. We're not an attractive club for good investors so it's this or nothing. If anyone thinks theres a benevolent billionaire out there who would want to bankroll us you are deluded. If we end up knocking about L1 anytime soon and the value of the club plummets someone might come knocking, but there isn't any money to be made by owning us, so no one is interested. We don't have a big enough international profile to be worth owning for branding purposes, we're not close enough to London or in a posh enough area or fashionable or trendy enough to be someones boutique club, we're not a sleeping giant with all the infrastructure in place that just needs better management to become an established Pl side, it would cost a fortune to improve what we have with no prospect of making the money back. For the moment we have the best owners we can attract, thinking theres a line of Sheikh Mansour's queueing up around the bloc wanting to buy us is a complete fantasy.

     

    I don't like our current seemingly impenetrable glass ceiling any more than anyone else, but if you think the cause is a stubborn, idealistic owner hoarding her train set, refusing to sell to one of many benevolent billionaires who have the money and nous to turn Norwich into the next Leicester then I'd say get you're head out of the clouds. it's this or McNally's model, both are flawed but it's the best choice we have.

    • Like 2

  5. Posted

    -

    ----------------Krul

    Aarons Zimmermann Amadou Godfrey Lewis

    ...................Mclean Tettey 

    ................Cantwell Hernandez

    ...........................Pukki

     

    Unorthodox formation,  but we need to try something different to give us an edge. we don't score from crosses so no point in having men out wide in forward positions really. With one full back pushing up at a time it's basically 5 more defensive players and 5 attacking players in whatever shape the pattern of the game demands. Focus on quick breaks and counter attacks. Pukki scores most on the break when being played in. 3 at the back as Sheff Utd will hit us with crosses and set pieces all game and if we can't be good at defending them might as well try just having an extra man in there.

  6. Posted

    Doesn't matter if we have VAR/just a referee/8 officials pitchside/an android built solely to referee games to the letter of the law or an omnipotent deity in charge of proceedings, at this level we will ALWAYS get the short end of the stick when it comes to decisions whether it's against the big clubs or our rivals. 

     

    This is just one of the facts of life, one of natures hard unbreakable laws, we're all born, we all die, the earth is round and NCFC do not get a fair shake from officials in the PL. No point in any of us giving it any thought anymore. I couldn't care less whether we have VAR or not, it won't make any difference to us. 

    • Like 1

  7. Posted · Edited by Christoph Stiepermann

    Need to keep him as high up the pitch as possible. For me at this level he either plays right off Pukki or he doesn't play at all. He hasn't got the attributes to run from deep like he keeps trying, his passing range over 20 yeards is often wayward and he gives the ball away often. Playing as a no.10 you negate a lot of that while letting him do what he's best at. I would try a 4 4 1 1 

     

    ......................Krul

    Aarons Zimbo Godfrey Lewis

    Cantwell Trybull Tettey Hernandez

    .................Buendia

    .................Pukki

     

    Let's focus on counter attacking, playing Pukki in clear with clever through balls with a solid 2 in Midfield and good ball carriers who track back out wide. You sacrifice a bit of possession probably, but we would creater clearer chances that suit our striker more imo

  8. Posted · Edited by Christoph Stiepermann

    1 hour ago, adam72 said:

    No you won't. I explained all this to you lot  weeks ago why you won't stay up. You will get the odd cheeky win occasionally, that's football. Ultimately you are doomed.  No point asking the same question in hoping for a different answer. You won't get it. 

     

    What's it like supporting a club that is nothing without one rich man's fortune? We have our ups and downs but everything we have we've earned honestly on the pitch and training ground. You support a L1 team that happens to have a sugar daddy who has bought his way into the top league temporarily. Much like Bolton/Wigan/Portsmouth etc. Won't be long until Tony Bloom FC has a couple of bad seasons, the money gets pulled and you end up back where a club of your size belongs. 

     

    Enjoy your temporary 'success' finishing 15th in the PL for a few years. It won't last. In a decade or so you'll be back to looking up to a club like us with envy. The sugar daddy who makes you absolutely everything you are will pull the plug eventually and you'll be left with nothing but the soulless husk of a club you are without him.

     

  9. Posted

    Tettey when fit has been amazing this season and last. Amadou in his last two games hasn't gotten near what Tettey is capable of at his best. If he was younger and didn't have a glass knee he'd be a guaranteed starter every week for me. His injury record is the only reason a bigger, established PL club hasn't snapped him up and we'll have a hell of a job replacing him without spending a fortune. 

    • Like 1

  10. Posted

    No imo. Our defence is inexperienced and our midfield and attack lacks pace, running power, height, strength and composure.

     

    We're basically the polar opposite of every other lower PL team. We have an exciting young side that we can be proud to support but surviving in this league is all about speed, physicality, counter attacks, long balls over the top, structured defending and being good at set pieces. Our side would survive comfortably in any other top European league, in the Premier League? Not for me, it would be nothing short of a miracle if we survive this year. 

     

    We'll stick with this team and manager, because they've earned that. But we're not cut out for this league and we'll come up short. 

  11. Posted · Edited by Christoph Stiepermann

    A change of manager won't make any difference. As good and exciting as this team is it has the same weaknesses as every other Norwich team I've ever seen. We lack pace, composure, the ability to dribble forwards with pace and organisation on set pieces. We've just been unlucky in that this team has come up against imo the strongest set of PL teams ever. If this team was promoted when Lambers side were in 2011 they would have survived easily,

     

    let's say we sacked Farke and someone brought in Pulis or Allardyce. No amount of coaching is going to make our squad bigger,  stronger, faster or able to out jump and out fight bigger stronger players from opposition teams. We are what we are and no change of coach, tactics or training ground routines will make the slightest bit of difference. 

  12. Posted

    1 hour ago, Making Plans said:

    It's not about lumping it up there. It's about urgency.

    Last 5 minutes we had plenty of opportunities to get a cross in from good positions but it just kept going backwards, sideways, forwards (repeat ad infinitum)

    You cannot afford to wait for the perfect opportunity. Sometimes you just have to gert it in there asap.

    You're right, but we don't have the players to do anything else. We either slip someone in with a clever through ball or cut back or we lose possession. As we commit so many men forwards to provide passing options losing possession that high up can be catastrophic with our weaknesses and how most teams in this league focus on counter attacking. Pukki/Cantwell/Buendia/McLean/Hernandez etc aren't going to win anything put into the box and we have no one with a good long shot to take advantage of second balls.

     

    You're correct in what you say in that we need to be less one dimensional, but we simply don't have the players to do that imo. Not without leaving ourselves exposed for a small chance to pick up a lucky ricochet or second ball. I don't have the solution, with our players I can't see any , but forcing things forwards into the box isn't it imo. 

  15. Posted

     

    We're poor on set pieces, every Norwich team I've ever supported has had this weakness, it's obvious and easily exploitable but for whatever reason, as a club we seem to place little emphasis on this side of the game, that's a whole different issue though and not the reason we're struggling today imo

    With how we play if our passing game isn't up to a certain standard every game we have no chance in this league. Spacing is one dimensional and all wrong, not enough players are showing for the ball, we're not moving the ball quickly enough and we're not strong enough to hold onto the ball or agile enough to dribble round players, we're making the wrong decision every time we do get into a good area and no one looks really in the mood to take the game to the opposition and try something creative. Hopefully the issue is a bug going around the squad or something and that's why we're not focused because this is worrying. 

  17. Posted

    I was one of those who wanted him loaned out at the start of the season. He looked at times a decent Championship level player but was inconsistent and lacked composure in front of goal. 

     

    He looks like a completely different player this year though, absolute quality and more than worthy of Wes' no 14 shirt. I'm not that clued up ion coaching or player development etc. How can a player improve so drastically over just a summer? it's a credit to him but how has a player gone from decent-ish at Championship level to a PL standout in that sort amount of time?

     

    Fair play to him, deserves every bit of success he gets.

    • Like 1

  19. Posted

    A box to box midfielder with physicality in the Leroy Fer mould. Obviously with a better work rate if possible. That would make such a difference for us. Any player like that is usually highly sought after so finding one good enough within our price range would be difficult but we pay Stuart Webber and his team good money for a reason. Looking at our squad a player like that is what we're missing imo. 

    If we're still struggling with injuries a CB on loan would be nice to have as well.

     

     

    • Like 1

  20. Posted

    Worst case scenario for me is we go down and a rich Championship rival snaps him up. I just can't see a lower PL club paying us 20 odd million for a 30 year old striker who is no good in the air. Most teams in this league play with a totally different kind of striker. Most other teams want to score from crosses, set pieces and playing someone with great pace and dribbling in one v one with the keeper quickly on the break, Pukki's game doesn't suit that.

     

    He would be very attractive for an ambitious top Championship club though. I can't see him going this January, no chance, but next summer I'm worried. 

  21. Posted

    Godfrey is never going to shake off the makeshift CB tag in the eyes of the morons while he's here is he? In the future, even after a long and successful career in the PL playing that position some of our stupider fans will still consider him a defensive midfielder because Paul Hurst played him there in the lower leagues. The irony in the thread title, it's too much

  25. Posted · Edited by Christoph Stiepermann

    Is it Leicester now? I'm well out of the loop, I thought everyone was still jealous of QPR and their big money signings and big name managers that our club would never be able to compete with...Or was it Cardiff? I can't keep up anymore.

     

    Seriously though. Nobody like Leicester or Wolves for example's owners want to buy Norwich. We're simply not appealing enough for an owner with both limitless wealth and footballing nous. We might attract a Marcus Evans type if we whored ourselves out enough, but what we know where that road leads.

     

    We need to attract certain types of players and managers that fit our culture here to be successful. If you throw money at mercenaries who don't want to play for this club or live in this part of the country you end up like Sunderland/Portsmouth. The model we have now is the one that will give us the best chance of success and a team that we can enjoy supporting. It has it's limits but it's better than any other alternative available to us. If there was an owner out there who cared about and understood the club and football like Delia/MWJ and had the money to bankroll us you can bet we would sell the club to them. But that person doesn't exist I'm afraid, like it or lump it that's the reality we face. 

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