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The Huckerby Delusion

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Posts posted by The Huckerby Delusion

  10. Posted

    [quote user="Trent Canary"]An even deeper search shows: -"17. The PFA Fans Player Awards provides the necessary mechanism to

    create the nominee list for The PFA Fans Player of the Year, which will

    be awarded at the end of the season."So im guessing it means the top vote-getters for the monthly awards are the final nominees for the yearly awards (Presumably there were four clear leaders in league one, with more or less in other divisions) Therefore the only reason Leeds have three in the final four are that they voted more through the season.I agree its a stupid way of doing it though. Unfortuanetly when its a ''Fans'' award, its just a popularity contest. Id personally ignore it and focus on who the press/players awards go to.[/quote]I agree thats a ridiculous way of doing it.Because that means that for arguments sake say 750,000 people have voted for Beckford over the course of the season to win player of the month in November, Jan and Feb If we''d have pulled our fingers out and got a million votes for Theoklitos to win in August he''d be on the short list instead??

  11. Posted

    [quote user="Trent Canary"]Unfortunaetly its a fans vote, so the final four are simply who got voted for the most (Ie: Which teams fans could be bothered to do it) - Presumably either the Leeds media or forums publicized it, whereas I havent really heard anything about it, otherwise id have voted.So im not sure what complaining will do, its a fans vote, and thats who the fans voted for.If you want to complain about anything then the obvious suggestion would be for the PFA to shortlist 6 candidates who the fans then pick from. But again if more Leeds fans vote than everyone else then someone like Beckford will just win it anyway.Either way, Lucchiano Becchio [:$][/quote]If thats the case then would there not be the same number of candidates for each division? It seems the shortlist is picked then it goes to the public vote, unless anyone remembers voting for their choice?

  14. Posted

    [quote user="GJP"][quote user="Heresyourfathersgun"]

    I expect Doc to go - I think he worries Lambert

    [/quote]

    lol!

    What makes you think that?

    Afterall, the Doc has played more games than any other defender this season and he takes over the captains armband when Holty is unavailable.

    All the telltale signs that the manager is worried by him.

    [/quote]I think the Doc will go. He''s been top drawer this season but I think he''s found his level, also I''d imagine he''s on a fair ole whack and financially the best deal is to let him go. Lambert''s not a mug just as Worthington wasn''t with Iwan and Malky the last time we went up. It''s tough and a little unfair but thats football.

  15. Posted

    I think that in all honesty Saturdays result isn''t all that important in the grand scheme of things. the last couple of weeks have changed this match from a title shoot-out into runaway leaders v playoff contenders. 92 points seems to be about the right mark for promotion so as long as we get positve results against Tranmere, stockport, leyton, Gills and Carlise then I think it''s party time, for me the biggest game left could be at the valley.

  16. Posted

    [quote user="Nuff Said"]Right, you started it, TGD. It''s not a shock that Coca Cola have unplugged themselves. Should we now be singing Wire top of the League in preparation? With some powerful players we''ll soon socket to ''em....Taxi![/quote]Ohm my God, that was terrible. I amp refusing to sink to that level, I don''t wish to take a battery of abuse.

  18. Posted

    [quote user="Nuff Said"]1. Give the guy a break. It''s a blog, not a work of literature and aimed at (I think) an American audience.2. So the conclusion is that an injection of £10 milllion to pay down some of the debt would be the right plan. What about buying some players? When you see the club discussed in these terms, it does look like the main concern of the potential buyers it''s aimed at is to make money from the purchase, not to secure our long term future or ensure a return to the Premiership.Personally, I''d feel safer in Delia and Michael''s hands.[/quote]I think therein lies the rub. The vast majority of people who have the clubs best interest at heart dont have the cash. So that only leaves people looking for investment oppertunitys. The best case is you end up with a Learner, the worst is having to ask the FA if you can sell players outside of a transfer window ala Pompey.

  19. Posted

    [quote user="City1st"]Nothing that was not already known otherwise it has much that is witless drivel.

    " and not having dropped a single match at Carrow Road" I think the word you are looking for is lost -

    "as well as a slight uptick in attendance" - given we are selling out the capacity where does this ''speaking clock'' think we are going to put this ''slight uptick'' - on the friggin'' roof !

    " a refocusing of the board and management on cost structure and expansion of the revenue base." Spend less and bring in more ...wow !

    " there is little statistical relationship between wage costs and placement in the league table." whatever next !

    "It is unheard of for any English club, outside the Premiership, to demonstrate this level of support" err, Newcastle, Derby, Sheff Utd, Leeds etc

    A report that contains such illiteracy as " " The data point we am using " " The size of the grounds" " club’s ability to put bums in seats" should demonstrate how little care has been put into cobbling together this pile of shyte.

    For those that want a more concise appreciation of NCFC''s position and advice going forward from there I would suggest you read Mr Micawber''s view on debt,[/quote]Welcome poverty!..Welcome misery, welcome houselessness, welcome

    hunger, rags, tempest, and beggary! Mutual confidence will sustain us

    to the end? or were you going for the Micawber Principle? "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds

    nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual

    expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery"(I love Dickens)

  21. Posted

    [quote user="Canary_on_the Trent"]Basically once we''re in the Championship, buy the club, pay off a large part of the debt, therefore reducing the large debt interest payments and along with a sensible wage structure we''re a very attractive club that has a very high turnover and will make a profit. It really makes you wonder what those running the club have done over the past 3/4 years, 1. how could we have such a high wage structure? and 2. How did we get relegated with such a high structure?[/quote]1. I think that for all we like to bash  Delia and the board they do tend to back their Managers. Good for the club if it''s Lambert, not so good if it''s Grant, Roeder or Gunn (I know, I know, Gunn bought Holt!)2. Kosich takes a look at the Deloitte figures and examines the link between wage structures and success in the championship and finds that there isn''t one. A club is just a likely to fail with a massive budget as with a small one.

  22. Posted

    Thought some of you may like to read Joe Kosich''s original blog:

    Looking into clubs as potential acquisition targets, Norwich City FC lands

    clearly in the center of our radar screen. The club spent a short run

    in the Premiership as the 2004/05 season and was subsequently relegated

    from the Championship to League One at

    the end of last season. Even with the setback of last year, the club

    appears to have bounced back where they now sit atop the league with a

    strong record of 18-7-3 and not having dropped a single match at Carrow

    Road this season. The following is a quick analysis of the Canaries and

    why I believe they warrant potential investment at this time.

    Support

    With the exception of Leeds,

    Norwich is the biggest draw in League One currently averaging 24,570

    per match. While Leeds is averaging just 400 more supporters per match,

    NCFC is enjoying 94.3% grounds capacity utilization at Carrow Road

    (Leeds – 62.1%). Additionally, if the Canaries were competing in the

    League Championship, the club would have the fourth largest average

    attendance following Newcastle, Derby County and

    Sheffield United. In terms of grounds capacity utilization, the club

    would only rank second behind Cardiff (100.1%). While I’m speculating

    that season ticket price reductions as well as complementary tickets at

    matches might play a role, it is nonetheless amazing that Norwich is

    still drawing over 24,000 supporters per match in League One.

    Grounds

    Carrow Road Stadium enjoys a

    maximum capacity of 26,034. The size of the grounds, while not in the

    top 10 or 11 in terms of capacity, could be expanded to over 35,000

    with the expansion of the South and Watling Stands. While this may be

    an impediment for future growth in turnover, the far more meaningful

    statistic is the club’s ability to put bums in seats. Clearly, the

    management at Carrow Road knows how to accomplish this task. It is

    unheard of for any English club, outside the Premiership, to

    demonstrate this level of support.

    Leverage

    It was reported by the board

    earlier this month that indebtedness of the club stands at

    approximately £23 million which may possibly be the largest amount of

    any League One Club. The debt for NCFC jumped over £5 million for the

    year ending 31/05/2009 in order to fund operating losses at the club

    level of a like amount. On a relative basis, the debt levels for the

    club would not be large when compared to other Championship clubs but

    in today’s economic environment, exceed levels that may be considered

    prudent or manageable for its current turnover.

    Earnings

    Earnings for the club were abysmal

    for the FYE 31/05/09 when a number of different management issues

    conspired to drive the club into an earnings deficit. The total wage

    bill for the club over the 2007/08 fiscal year placed it among the

    Championship laggards with a larger than average total wage bill of

    nearly £14 million and performance in the relegation zone. Another club

    which shared the same distinction during those same fiscal periods was Southampton FC (which

    eventually went into administration). For the year ending 31/05/09, the

    club also experienced a loss of £5.2 million inclusive of nearly £1.7

    million of interest expenditures with amortization and depreciation in

    excess of £3 million (EBITDA of -£500 thousand). From management

    accounts, we project that losses will exceed £6-8 million due to a fall

    in league revenues, an increase in club debt by £5 million (increased

    interest costs) and our assumption that the club’s wage bill and

    administrative costs remain at their same level (2007-08).

    Pro Forma Changes

    In anticipation of NCFC moving to

    the Championship next season, raising additional equity capital and

    managing the cost structure in a more determined fashion, we anticipate

    the following:

    Loss 2008-2009 £7.5 million

    Add:

    Media £3.0 million

    Ticket Revenue £1.0 million

    Loss from Operations £3.5 million

    Add:

    Reduced Interest Cost* £1.2 million

    Wage Savings £3.0 million

    Cost Savings £4.2 million

    *Savings from capital injection/reduction of debt £13 million.

    For the FYE 31/05/11, it is

    reasonable to assume that turnover will increase by up to nearly £3

    million due to increased media revenues for Championship clubs. It is

    also reasonable to assume that with promotion to the Championship,

    additional full-priced season tickets (less discounting and partials)

    as well as a slight uptick in attendance will drive additional turnover

    by £1 million.

    Additionally, the club should

    endeavor to raise at least £13 million which would be used to repay

    approximately £13 million in indebtedness reducing the gearing on the

    club to a more reasonable £10 million. We have also explained to our

    blog readers that the wage bill for the club should be reduced to a

    level of approximately 55% of gross pro-forma (2010-11) turnover or

    approximately £10.5 million (over a £3 million reduction in wage cost

    from the 2007-08 fiscal year). With these fundamental cost management

    and capital structure changes, the Canaries should be able to generate

    positive cash flow and manage a positive bottom line.

    Conclusion

    It is surprising how a club could

    sustain financial deficits with the current level of support unless the

    club had previously demonstrated inadequate cost management (especially

    on the wage line). For instance, in the 2007/08 season, NCFC had the

    fifth highest turnover in the Championship clubfollowing Charlton,

    Sheffield United, Watford and West Brom who were all recipients of

    relegation payments from the Premiership. Finally, wage costs have

    eaten into margins where Norwich has been in the top quartile of their

    respective league in terms of wage costs. In an environment where

    credit is tight, expense discipline and wage cost containment should be

    central to any club. Additionally, previous statistics contained in

    Deloitte’s Annual Review of Football Finance shows little relationship

    between wage costs and league table position (R-Squared of .12). This

    essentially means that in the Championship, there is little statistical

    relationship between wage costs and placement in the league table.

    To the board’s credit, Norwich has

    been very successful in maintaining its supporter base but has allowed

    its cost structure as well as its indebtedness to become bloated beyond

    a point where the long-term success of the club may be hampered. I

    believe that any new investment should be targeted at repayment of this

    debt and a refocusing of the board and management on cost structure and

    expansion of the revenue base.

    Given current trading of clubs at

    this level, it is our opinion that the club should be valued at an

    enterprise value of 1-1.30x trailing turnover. The data point we am

    using for this valuation is Southampton FC which was sold out of

    administration last spring at slightly over 1x trailing turnover. More

    dated but still relevant data points would be Birmingham City or Derby

    County which traded at between 1.0-2.0x multiple. In today’s credit and

    economic environment, the club will tend to have a valuation on the

    lower end of the scale. Finally, the board of NCFC has made recent

    reference to the club having debts in excess of its turnover for the

    first time in the club’s history. This valuation metric might

    potentially be on the on the minds of Ms. Delia Smith and Mr.

    Wynn-Jones as they and the rest of the board seek additional capital

    investment for the club

    Very Interesting Reading...

  24. Posted

    [quote user="I am a Banana"]they can arrange a deal, but burnley cant have him until the window opens![/quote]They can recall him today, he returns to spurs tomorrow and they sell him . After the first month he has a 24 hour recall clause Unless I''ve missed something the transfer window is still open?
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