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7rew

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Posts posted by 7rew

  3. Posted

    Since Trybull took a knock at the end, move Kenny out there and bring Leitner and Tettey back into the middle for Tuesday.

    Unless Tom is fine, then move Kenny out there and bring Vrancic in with Trybull.  

    With less tackling in the 3, we should also shore up the 2 with an established pairing. 

  4. Posted

    I don’t think that the team overall had an poor first half.  Kenny McLean had a really poor first half positionally, bad enough that everyone else looked bad, then he massively improved positionally after half time.

    The role he was in, which is the Mario/Mo role, means he should be dropping deep, taking the ball from defence and make the first pass to an attacking player in space.  Instead he would consistently drift up the pitch or wide and try to be the player that received the first pass into space.  That left us with one fewer player in that important area and made playing that first pass much harder. It made it easier for Bristol to press us effectively, and lead to Krul having to go long more often and passes forward being made from worse positions, which give the ball away more.

    After half time, when I assume he got a rollocking, McLean was more disciplined, but still I don’t expect him to keep a deep lying place  in the team.

    That said his goals were good and i’d happily watch him in one of the three advanced midfield roles.

  5. Posted

    8 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

    I think you'll find that the amount of time and space the shot taker has is factored in to the xG for the chance.

    Incidentally, exceptional finishing isn't by any means the only contributory factor. DF drew attention to another in a recent interview when he spoke of wearing other teams out. That's important because it isn't dependent on one or two individuals; it's a squad-wide asset in a way that TK's goal scoring isn't.

    I’m pretty sure xG doesn’t yet measure the positions of other players, as Ben Mayhew of experimental361 suggests here (https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1092669354465001473?s=21).  I remember a 538 podcast that suggested it is not included for a technological reason, because measuring the position of all 21 other players is currently too hard to do at scale.

    But it is a good point about tiring other teams out as a strategy.

     

  6. Posted

    I preface this by saying I find xG and 538 really interesting and useful, but...

    I don’t agree that higher goals than xG shows we rely on exceptional/lucky finishing.  It could show that we have a forward line who are really good at getting themselves better than average space to shoot (which would makes shots easier to score than their xG values). We can also observe in whether that is true in play, which I think it is.

  13. Posted

    Ipswich have been massively out preforming the quality of chances they make for a long time:

    https://experimental361.com/2018/05/06/championship-trends-2017-18/

    https://experimental361.com/2018/05/06/scatter-graphics-championship-2017-18/

    If they don’t:

    keep up a top 6 conversion rate

    deal with the defence that faced the most shots of any team last season, by a long way.

    sort out an attack that created the third least shots

    then they are in trouble.

  14. Posted

    “So on those grounds would you say Olive branch was a success for us this year?”

    No. Far from it. Oliveria is precisely the kind of player that is overvalued when judged by his goals alone.

    It’s Srbeny that I rate higher than his goals scored suggests at Norwich. We were more dangerous as a team when he played than when Oliveria played, even though personally Oliveria scored more.

    That doesn’t mean I don’t want another striker in this window, but that I am perfectly happy with Srbeny being In the squad.

  15. Posted

    “A good game yes, a great game might involve him either scoring or creating an assist for a goal.”

    I totally disagree. A forwards job is to get the team to score goals. It doesn’t matter who gets them.

    Stirling did enough to make it more likely that England would score that he had a really good match.

    Goals scored are one of the worst ways to measure a forwards contribution, because while they are easily available they leave out well over half of what a forward needs to do.

  22. Posted

    But we have played different formations and adapted to the players we have under Farke. It''s the big change he''s brought in compared to Neil, who played the same formation with whoever fitted into it.

    We have played 4-4-1-1, 5-2-1-2, 3-5-1-1, 4-2-3-1 and lately 4-3-3. That is changing formations and we do it a lot.

    What we haven''t played is a formation that doesn''t play with a midfielder at number 10. Because we have adapted to the players we have.

    Specifically, James Maddison is the first outfield name on the team sheet by a mile and rightly so, he is by miles our best player. But that imposes things on how you play.

    That means you find a formation with a midfielder at number 10.

    You also have to have a striker in front of him, because he would be wasted leading the line.

    You need two midfielders behind him, because he is wasted playing in a midfield two.

    Given that you also need 2 centre halves and 2 wing backs, you have 2 players left to move around the pitch and do all the wide attacking.

    It means you send a large part of your build up play through the number 10 position. It certainly means that either bypassing (route one) or shrinking (balls over the top to runners) midfield are not sensible tactics.
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