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hepphep

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Posts posted by hepphep

  6. Posted · Edited by hepphep

    19 minutes ago, Mr Angry said:

    No need to do any stats based scouting-just use the latest Football Manager database 😉

    Actually I did read somewhere year or two back that even some top teams actually use FM as one of their scouting tools. As it has so massive database collected from all around the world, it can be one of the things that help finding leads about missed potential targets. It was seen useful especially for find local talent from smaller regions that are not usually worth to scout extensively.

  7. Posted

    There are increasing amount of teams that are doing well using metrics heavily in their scouting process. I think in every case (including us) there is still level of manual scouting as part of that process.

    Therefore, I don't think it is wrong way to try to do the things. However, as others are doing it actively as well, you need to be good on defining what you are looking for and what kind of data you analyse. Apparently we have not been very good with metrics required for EPL relegation dogfight. Might be that it is position we need to fill even more than the notorious CDM position..

  14. Posted

    1 hour ago, rock bus said:

    Surely his contract doesn't expire this year. 

    I know people are questioning Webber's competence but there is no way he'd leave us in a position where Pukki could sign with another club now.

    I'd also like to think that Pukki is one of the few remaining players who has a bit of respect and loyalty to the club so would be willing to sign a new contract so we could at least get a decent transfer fee for him IF he did want a new challenge (are you listening Mr Cantwell!)

    If I recall it correctly, it is similar as with Cantwell that there is one year extension option for club in his contract.

  15. Posted

    1 minute ago, Haus said:

    I think PLM hasnt settled into the team or position yet, similar to how Rupp didnt for a while but is ok now.   The Premier League is a hard place to jump into to learn.  

    I think a big part of our struggles this year (assuming that some of the players we bought do have the potential) is that we bought too late, a few more weeks of preseason and bedding in would have helped a lot. 

    And not having Covid to destroy most of the latter part of the pre-season as well..

    • Like 1

  16. Posted

    Just now, keelansgrandad said:

    But isn't Webber ultimately responsible for scouting? And surely he goes and has a look at those on the radar whether in person or by video? He is a bit like the Materials Manager in a Company. Its down to him to make sure the Managers can carry out their job well.

    Oh, then I've misunderstood. I sort of thought he runs the business and tries to set of professionals to work on their own field. Sort of thinking that even if he goes through player negotiations, he would go those through suggestions of the head scout and head coach. He would sort of be the person to ensure that the purchase makes sense financially. Scouts would then be responsible for finding candidates based on what is needed and head coach and sporting director would make plan based on their things. In similar way as sporting director could give some input on what is expected from team, but it is head coach who will decide the formations and what players are told to be done on the pitch.

    Yes, in the end he is responsible as he needs to ensure that scouting department is up to the task. However, I'd think that it would be strange to blame their performance for now as it is something that is hard change in short term, but instead focus on developing so that we get things better in future. Like he has done with many other things in club. Step by step.

    If he really also focuses on details on player capabilities and their analysis, his job description is a way wider than I expected.

     

  17. Posted

    3 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

    If there was a panic to replace Farke then it would have been down to Webber as it was he who sacked him in rather bizarre circumstances. 

    It seems Webber did not have a viable replacement lined up and Smith kind a fell into our laps. I agree the jury is still very much out on him, but the fact it is says something of Webbers appointment of him in the first place.

    Webber has done many good things, as did Farke, but in my opinion it is starting to unravel right now. Questionable signings, the timing of Farke's sacking and the appointment of a head coach no better than what we had. I honestly feel we have gone backwards pretty quickly this season.

    I totally agree that the timing for sacking Farke was strange, especially as we did not have that replacement in place. I think we got lucky with timing to get Smith though. However, was just pointing out that so many of use were yelling "Farke out" back then as well, only to notice that when it happened it was really really hard to get any good replacement for him. Same goes with our players. So many are yelling to send Gilmour back. I agree that he is far from solid EPL player, but then you watch Charlton game which he misses and notice that he really plays because without him we would be even worse.

    I'm sort of thinking that maybe we should learn about that as fans and appreciate persons more, because they are in their role (coach, player or sports director) for reason. And often that reason is that they are best we have available, and getting better for now is near to impossible in short term. Maybe to acknowledge that we cannot just get the best there are, but we should focus on supporting on what we have got and can get. With all their strengths and weaknesses. 

    That is just something I started feeling first after Farke was sacked and all the awful options to replace him was all around in pundits and forum. And on Charlton match when Gilmour was missing and there was nobody who was willing to take responsibility of holding ball in the midfield. Maybe we just should appreciate more what we got.

    • Like 1

  18. Posted

    1 minute ago, TheGunnShow said:

    Wasn't Kieran Walsh the main guy for that before leaving?

    I think you are right, and I think he was already leaving during summer window and therefore not fully involved. Which would seem there was sort of transition going on. Could it also be that we actually did get quite nicely the targets that our scouts recommended us to sign and therefore Webber expected us to have succeeded on getting what we wanted?
    If it is so, it is likely that scouting department needs some strengthening and Webber is just acting as a good boss and not throwing them under the bus.
     

  19. Posted

    First it was "Time for Farke to go", only to find ourselves in panic when realizing that it is really hard to find better replacement. I think many would say that judge is still out with Smith. Even though there is need for improvement in scouting and getting in correct player, Webber has made massive positive things to the club, its finances and status. We could be bottom half club in championship without him as well. Just wondering who realistic targets those who claim that there is "Time for Webber to go" would bring on the table to replace him?

    Also, really pondering if Webber is the one who does the scouting and puts together reports on who we should hire or maybe we have some improvement required on our scouting department?

  20. Posted

    I think we have so many players that are so close to each other on overall quality that it best XI would change game by game.
    There are few players who are clearly ahead of others in their position though, who should be starting whenever available:
    Krul, Aarons, Normann, Rashica, Pukki

    So there would be backbone of our starting eleven and other pieces should vary by daily form and opponent.

  23. Posted

    34 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

    We need to get a defensive midfielder in. Genuinely believe that will transform us (if he’s reasonable). Despite our lack of goals we do create chances. A bit of pace up front would be welcome as well but if we sign one player in this window it must be a CDM. 

    I agree with need of defensive midfielder. However, I find the "we do create chances" part tough to swallow. It keeps popping up every now and then, but I can find no statistics that support it. Actually the statistics are against it. 

    If you only check Premier League's own statistics for big chances created (screenshot) for 10 worst teams in creating big chances, we are worst by a margin.

    image.png.7fb03cbcfdf6ed72144d581337c3e7c9.png

    So, in practice we are creating about 30% less big chances than Newcastle which is the second worst team in creating such. When compared to Watford, they are actually creation 130% more big chances that we are.

    This same can be seen in xG values for worst 10 teams when comparing xG
    image.thumb.png.9409cc9811bbc9d1eba05aa495b0ceac.png
    xG differences are smaller, mainly because they take in account the other than big chances. 

    If looking at stats, it would seem that we create some amount of chances from numerical perspective, but we really are not creating good chances at all. Therefore talking about creating chances is misleading for us and easily ends up to thinking that we create chances but just don't take them. It is like if we would start shooting from middle of the pitch and telling that we just created lots more chances. So, finishing has not been top notch either, but we really are not creating those good chances either. 
    Interesting thing is that there is nobody that is missing lots of chances individually when looking at individual xG values. Actually most of the players are maximum at -1, which just means that their expectations would've been to score one goal so far but they haven't just done it. 

    Oh well, but that's just about hearing lots of talk that we create chance and trying to figure out why we keep hearing that 😄
     

  24. Posted

    I'm bit sceptic on January spending. Last time in Prem the January gamble did not work well at all, even though Rupp has proved as valuable addition later on, the instant impact was not there. 

    In a way, I think that we either have to get the things to work with current squad or not at all. Maybe we could get lucky with one major investment, but getting multiple right during hard January window does not just sound likely.

    But what options would that leave?
    Try to keep current team and trust them to turn the boat?
    Cashing some of the players that could be of value and are possibly not here in two or three years anymore (Aarons, Cantwell, Pukki?) and prepare next step of rebuilding by hiring players to be bed in for next season already?

    I actually cannot make my mind of which would feel like the right thing to do.

  25. Posted

    12 hours ago, City 2nd said:

    WTF. Pukki a best player. Championship yes. Premiership no. Our goals for column proves the point!

    In my opinion Pukki is the best player we have by quite a margin and would be starting striker in over half of EPL teams. If you blame him for our lack of goals, you likely have not been watching the games. He has scored over half of the goals for the team this season, with minimal service. Problem is that there is no support for him, either when we have ball or when we are pressing.

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