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Yellow and Green Man

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Posts posted by Yellow and Green Man

  3. Posted

    58 minutes ago, Uncle Fred said:

    I do think we have reached a new low in our modern history , we normally worry about losing our prize assets after relegation but know it is happening when we get promoted to the premier league 

    What should be an exciting few months is turning into a nightmare of lack of ambition

    Now that we've got promoted I see it as win-win. We don't have to sell anyone and can offer premier league football, so players will only leave it strengthens the club overall. If we'd stayed down we'd probably need to sell one or two players to balance the books, but not now. We've just got to trust the club to make good choices from the position of strength that they find themselves in

  4. Posted

    If we do sell Emi for 40 odd million is that a good thing? If the club reinvests it in 3 or 4 players does that make the club stronger? Because I've heard that it's the weak links that cost you games rather than the strong ones that win them for you, but also we look so much better when Emi is playing (I cba to dig out the stats about points with / without him but they're pretty convincing)

  8. Posted

    18 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

    It's a rare thing in Farke bingo these days.

    We had some cake/cheesecake chat earlier in the week, which is always nice.

    Then, to continue the sweet theme, he does love a 'Topic'.

    Being 'hungry and greedy' is often a thing.

    'Unbelievable' and 'unbelievably' make a regular appearance.

    'Each and every' is another favourite.

    He seems to have weaned himself off referring to the U23s as the 'young guns', and he also seems to have stopped saying 'I don't go too deep into it'.

    Anything else we come across regularly on Farke bingo?

    "Massive compliments to the lads on this topic"

    • Like 1

  10. Posted · Edited by Yellow and Green Man

    3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

    So is it just an algorithm based on results so far without any qualitative analysis?  Presumably then on day one all teams would have been afforded equal probability of all things?

    From memory: they predict an "attack score" and a "defence score" for every team. Which they base on last season's results too. And as we were in the PL last season they apply a conversation factor based on the strength of the league. But I don't think they take transfers into account. They update the attack and defence score after each match based on a few key stats. 

    To predict the results of a single match they use both teams attack and defence scores and somehow get win/lose/draw probabilities.

    To predict the rest of the season they simulate a few thousand run ins by sampling the win/lose/draw probabilities for the remaining matches and take the average points totals.

    • Like 2

  11. Posted

    9 minutes ago, NewNestCarrow said:

    Sadly - for all their fancy language & stats - 538 dot com know no more than any of us.

    At the start of December (when City had been top for 4 matchdays) they saw it like this:

    To win Champs % & pts prediction:

    AFC 19% - 79  /  Brentford 18% - 79  /  Watford 17% - 79 /  Norwich 14% - 77

    Even on Jan 2nd 538 still had AFC as favourites to win the division.

     

    Yeah I don't want to come across as some massive 538 fanboy but I don't think anyone's claiming that they have a crystal ball. They basically try and predict how good a team is based on their fixtures so far, and calculate the probabilities for win/draw/lose for the remaining fixtures from that. Around Christmas I don't think anyone would say there was one team that far ahead, it shows we've put in a good performance since then

  12. Posted

    Watford look the most streetwise and able to grind out results at the end of the season. However they play us, then Millwall, then Brentford, then Swansea in their last 4 games this season. I hope we'll be done and dusted by then but I can see second place being decided in those final two head to heads. 

    I just nipped over to 538 to look at their predictions https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ . At the moment they have: 

    Norwich 95 points

    Watford 84 points

    Brentford 83 points 

    Swansea 83 points

     

    Which says what we already know. If we keep playing our game and avoid complacency we'll be fine. But it's going to be tight between the next three

     

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