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How many from the last 20?

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How many points do we think we will need from the last 20 games to stand a chance of going up? I know we only lost 8 times in the whole season last time got promoted (is that right?) I think it would be realistic to say 14 wins 4 draws and 2 losses would see us in with a shot. No one is really looking like running away with it. What we actually end up getting is anyone''s guess.

What does everyone else think will be required, and what we might get from the last 20?

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We''ve got 13 points from the last 6 games, an average of 2.16 points per gameIf we can get an average of 2 points per game from now on we''ll have a total of 83 points at the end of the season. As there are still 60 points up for grabs, an average of 2 points per game would mean that we would drop 20 points (or lose 6 and draw 2)Anything better than that, and that''s more than possible, and we would be home & dry

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Over the last 5 seasons the team finishing 2nd has needed;

93 points in 2013/14 (5 loses all season);

79 points in 12/13 (15 loses!);

88 points in 11/12 (10 loses);

84 points in 10/11 (8 loses);

91 points in 09/10 (7 loses).

 

6th places has required;

72 points 13/14

68 points 12/13

75 points 11/12

75 points 10/11

70 points in 9/10

 

Given the way the top 8 are pulling away from the rest of the league, I can imagine needing a relatively high score to get in the play-offs - around 75, but maybe a relatively lower score for automatic, 87/88.

 

Norwich will need to do exceptionally well to get in the automatic places - and realistically it is probably beyond them now. However, keep up the current form and the play-offs will be achieved. Another 35 points and I think Norwich will make the play-offs - another 45+ points for automatic (which averages 2.25 per game - a tall order)

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The only target we need is winning the next match in the schedule.  Anything else is just guesswork.  Its impossible to tell which of the top eight is going to be in the top two and how many points will be needed. 

One game at a time, 20 games and the only possible target is 60 points, as every game is winnable.  Every point dropped from that 60 means we are less likely to get to the top, so the target always remains the same..............win the next match.

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Who on earth lost 15 times and still finished second?!

I feel we are 7 points off the pace, our goal difference will take care of itself if we''re to challenge. I honestly think Bournemouth and Ipswich will fall away a bit but Derby and Boro will kick on relentlessly at 2 points a game. That is why I think 88 will be the magic number. That leaves us 45 points left to get. More importantly, it means we can afford to drop 15 points from our remaining 20 games. That''s any combo from 5 losses to 6 draws and a loss.

This is why we need to stay focused and win our home games while at least winning our away games against lower opposition. Each time that doesn''t happen, we need to make up for it with a result away at a top team.

My only caveat is that if we were to beat both Boro and Derby then our pts needed may be just 85 so that translates to 36 points from 18 games, 2 points a game. A realistic hope is that only one of these manages to consistently pull away and we become part of a clutch of clubs chasing 80 points for second.

I have always maintained that we need to be chasing top two so won''t debate playoffs points.

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Interestingly out of the current top ten, six still have to come to Carrow Road. Four of these teams are currently in the top five.

We only have to go away to Watford and Blackburn of teams currently in the top ten.

We currently sit 7 points off of the automatic promotion places with a game in hand. Victory on Saturday puts us in the top six and only 4 points off of Middlesbrough in second place.

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]Who on earth lost 15 times and still finished second?![/quote]I think it was Hull, if memory serves...

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[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]Norwich will need to do exceptionally well to get in the automatic places - and realistically it is probably beyond them now. [/quote]I don''t agree at all. It is definitely not beyond us to finish in the top 2, in fact it is highly possible that we can do it.Yes it will need a good run & a bit of luck but we''re only 7 or 8 points off the top with 20 games to go and that is by no means beyond us.

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I think automatic promotion is still realistic for any club in the top 10. No club is breaking away from the rest, with all of the top clubs slipping up more than compared to previous seasons. I don''t think it will take as much as you''d think to get promoted

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you have to remember that with the top teams playing each other they both cant lose... so therefore teams will still consistently pick up points whilst we do.

to expect 6 teams to have a cataclysmic slide is expecting too much imo.

We will finish between 5th and 10th.

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A minimum of 40 and hopefully up to 45?

Between 83 and 88 points will be a successful season, where that leaves us in the table is impossible to know - probably not top but could be second.

All we can do is gather the points.

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[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]Norwich will need to do exceptionally well to get in the automatic places - and realistically it is probably beyond them now. [/quote]I don''t agree at all. It is definitely not beyond us to finish in the top 2, in fact it is highly possible that we can do it.Yes it will need a good run & a bit of luck but we''re only 7 or 8 points off the top with 20 games to go and that is by no means beyond us.[/quote]I agree with making plans - but in a slightly different way.When looking up, you need to be looking at how we can make ground on the teams above us. The first test will be on Saturday at home to Brentford. A win would guarantee we march into the top six, although possibly only on goal difference.We are also yet to play Ipswich, Derby and Middlesborough at home. Those not only give us the ability to gain three points, but also to deny them three points. The rest is down to picking up enough wins in the mean time to keep us within touching distance.We have now played Bournemouth twice getting 4 points to their 1.This is where our automatic promotion chances will be decided. In terms of the play-offs we also have Wolves to play at home and Sheffield Weds - again two teams around us that are vital in terms of winning. That would push them further away and give us more chance of maintaining a loftier position.It''s not impossible, it''s not out of reach or even unlikely, but the boys need to get going on a run, now more than at at any other time, if we are to launch a bid for the top two positions.

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Agree with what Chicken says above. I personally see the home games v Ips, Brentford, Derby, and Boro as "must win" affairs, if we are going to make up the ground. Positive results in these games and a win at Watford, and I think we could probably afford to drop some points against the lower clubs ( hardly unknown in NCFC history !) and still stay in the running. Conversely, if we do not perform in these top six games, then I''m assuming we''ve got to win pretty much every remaining fixture to have a shout.

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Definitely not beyond us, and it''s no good with that sort of defeatist talk, especially now that we''ve got a manager. We''ve got a game in hand over the top team (Bournemouth), if we win that then we''ll only be 5 points behind; less than 2 wins away. So we need to win against Brentford on saturday to get in that position, then it''s on.

It took the teams above us a while to get going, now that they have I''m sure they will slip up like Bournemouth did v Leeds and Boro nearly did v Cardiff. We just need to concentrate on ourselves like last time we went up and we could very well get the top spot. Like Lakey says, one game at a time. But as fans, now is the time to stick together, also the january window is here and we''ll get a few players in, and out.

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A lot of fans tend to have lower expectations of the teams above, but we are where we are because we''ve done less well than them up until now. I can see us dropping points when we least expect to, therefore I think we''ll have our work cut out to make the playoffs. We''re at the crest of a wave of form, but Phelan leaving could pop that particular bubble.Of the teams above us only Brentford have a less experienced manager, all the other teams are managed by people with considerably more experience of coaching and management than Alex Neil. Lambert had momentum, but Alex Neil is taking over a side which at best is in transition. Top two is practically out of reach. A lot of luck and teams above us suffering a dramatic reversal of form would be needed to make 3rd or 4th.

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Reggie and Chicken have already summed it up for me, the home games against Ipswich, Derby and Boro are all must win games with the big one being this Saturday (next one is always the most important one) and Brentford.

New manager and possibly at least one new signing and nobody of consequence leaving we can get close to 87/88 points, and who knows automatic promotion is there for celebrating.

We usually do well against the better sides, so no silly slip ups and its game on! "look out Binners we are coming after you....... "

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This isn''t a season where anyone is running away with it so the points required is likely to be on the low side. If things continue as they are then 85 points will be enough.

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The current form guide makes interesting reading :-

http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship

Wolves to make a late burst into the playoffs?

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[quote user="ricardo"]This isn''t a season where anyone is running away with it so the points required is likely to be on the low side. If things continue as they are then 85 points will be enough.[/quote]That''s a fair point, Rick, but it''s a bit of a double edged sword, that.OK there is no one stand out team, but by the same token there are no less than 4 or 5 teams who''ve done very well and have shown reasonably steady good form. Which, in turn means we have to effectively out perform 3 or 4 of those Five if we are to make automatic promotion. It is by no means beyond us, but, make no mistake about it, for us to get 85 pts is a very tall order !

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There has been too much disruption to our coaching staff to expect a top two finish. Watford got their managerial situation sorted relatively early but have a more stable backroom than us. The other sides, especially Bournemouth, have a been there, done that mentality born from a stability which has allowed them to build over previous seasons.We on the other hand have been all over the place on too many occasions both this season and in prior seasons. We can''t expect to suddenly become more consistent than those above us. What''s a shame is that most of our upheavals have been due to the board shooting itself in the foot with poor decision making and planning.

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[quote user="Poceni Kanarski"]Top two is practically out of reach. A lot of luck and teams above us suffering a dramatic reversal of form would be needed to make 3rd or 4th.[/quote]Can''t believe anyone can have this type of pessimistic outlook. We''re only 6 or 7 points adrift from the top, there are 20 games left, we''ve got most of the rivals coming to FCR and our current form is better than any of our rivals bar Wolves.There is absolutely no reason, given the position we''re in, why we can''t win this league.As Ricardo has said, 85 points or thereabouts, will probably be enough this season and 85 points is till well within our capabilities.

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14 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws would be my guess. The losses coming against Fulham at home and a few unfancied sides away.

That would give us 87 points which will hopefully be enough for the automatics!

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[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="Poceni Kanarski"]Top two is practically out of reach. A lot of luck and teams above us suffering a dramatic reversal of form would be needed to make 3rd or 4th.[/quote]Can''t believe anyone can have this type of pessimistic outlook. We''re only 6 or 7 points adrift from the top, there are 20 games left, we''ve got most of the rivals coming to FCR and our current form is better than any of our rivals bar Wolves.There is absolutely no reason, given the position we''re in, why we can''t win this league.As Ricardo has said, 85 points or thereabouts, will probably be enough this season and 85 points is till well within our capabilities.[/quote]If the question was "are there two sides better than Norwich who will finish above us?", then I''d answer yes. It''s not impossible to finish in the top two, but it''s very unlikely imho. We''ll see what happens.

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]This isn''t a season where anyone is running away with it so the points required is likely to be on the low side. If things continue as they are then 85 points will be enough.[/quote]That''s a fair point, Rick, but it''s a bit of a double edged sword, that.OK there is no one stand out team, but by the same token there are no less than 4 or 5 teams who''ve done very well and have shown reasonably steady good form. Which, in turn means we have to effectively out perform 3 or 4 of those Five if we are to make automatic promotion. It is by no means beyond us, but, make no mistake about it, for us to get 85 pts is a very tall order ![/quote]I didn''t say it wasn''t a tall order but thats about what its going to take. 42 points from 20 games.Here is a list of all the second placed teams for the last 10 years after 26 games, their final points totals and how many points they got from the final 20 games.                         26 games               46 games                     points gained in last 20 gamesBurnly                   51                          93                                          42Hull                      49                           79                                          30Sthmptn               50                          88                                          38Norwich               44                           84                                          40WBA                     47                           91                                          44Birmghm             51                           83                                          32Stoke                   43                           79                                           36Birmghm             53                           86                                          33Sheff U                56                           90                                          34Wigan                  47                           87                                          40Make of it what you will.

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[quote user="Northern Irish Canary"]That is interesting Ricardo.

When you say 2nd placed teams, is that at 26 or 46 games? If it''s 26 games, where did they finish at the end of the season?[/quote]Sorry I didn''t make that clear. These are the teams that were promoted by finishing second they were not necessarily second after 26 games.

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Automatic seems like a tall order - but possible. Nevertheless if we ended up in the playoffs just think about this possibility. Us vs the scum, in London for the playoff final. Winner takes all. How good would it feel to dash their hopes right at the end? Consigning Mick the pr$ck to another year in the chumps. It could be sweet and it would be exciting - as long as we put a decent run together we should be involved in the mix at least. I''d rather go up by beating the scum in the playoff final!

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