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Making Plans

8 points behind 1st, 7 behind 2nd, game in hand

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Indeed and the next run of games sees some of the top teams play each other........if only we can string another 7 games unbeaten!

Fingers crossed.

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Certainly some interesting results this week, just showing how this division can be, most sides are well capable of playing above their position, it is all about consistency.

We could really capitalise at the weekend, with a win all the sides above us will be well within reach - it just goes to show how things can change quickly (good and bad), only a week or so ago people were concerned that we''d be 14 points adrift of the top but it may be as little as 5 by Saturday. It would make for interesting times, with the top 6-7 all potentially within 5-6 points of each other.

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Its an 8 team league and Norwich have most of them at home.

As Neil identified: things have to improve at home; starting with the fear factor inhibiting team and supporters.

We should have been leading this league comfortably but we''ve got to produce better than normal promotion form from here on in to gain an automatic place.

At present I see us getting around 76 points and 5th place but, if we can improve defensively this will improve.

Forget winning games 6 - 0. Saturday showed how we should have tightened up earlier. Be patient, we need to start producing the consistent, competent 1 or 2 nil wins on a consistent basis.

But, bear Brentford and our squad will start to believe. It will help keep the squad together at the end of the transfer window too.

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I never tempt fate, far too long in the tooth for that - anything I say is always couched in ''would'', never ''will''. But facts are facts, a win and we are closer than many thought likely a week or so ago; even if we don''t we are still closer than we might have been and there''s still plenty to play for.

It is almost inevitable that sides, us included, will go through dodgy spells before the season is out, we need to try to minimise our poor results whilst capitalising on others, as we have already had a bad enough run!

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alartz wrote the following post at 21/01/2015 10:38 PM:

Stop tempting fate.

-----------------------------

Stop being a pu$$y to admit we would be 4 points behind the automatic places. It might not happen this week, but it quite easily could

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It will take a lot, but it''s do-able. We still have to play a handful of the top 6 at home including those down the road. It will be a big psychological advantage if we manage to break into the top 6 on Saturday.

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Isn''t it fantastic, we are very much in the mix, all of the top 6/7/8 sides will feel the same, all capable of string results together and all capable of going on a big wobble. Something tells me AN will view every game as a cup final and if players buy into it anything can happen, one game at a time, sorry,one final at a time !

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A vital match on Saturday against one of the leading teams. Win, we are back in the playoffs, and the pressure increases on the leading group. Lose or draw, and our recent upturn will be characterised as yet another false dawn. It is to be hoped that Neil has the measure of our current challenge.

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As an aside, it''s interesting to look at the goal difference. We''re in a cluster of 6 between +17 (us) & +29, then Brentford on +7, Blackburn +1, everyone else is negative. Just emphasises how frustrating those 1-0 defeats were really.

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It''s gonna be a difficult game, they don''t have anything to lose really, Brentford never expected to be this high in the table and there living a dream atm. We have to be very professional on saturday and especially our back 4 !

Is Tettey back? We''ll need him!

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It''s all about us and our own performances. The results this week show just how much of a muchness the teams at the top are. Particularly Bournemouth and Ipswich in my opinion. 
I don''t think the target will be as high as in some years because of this and if we play to the top of our ability we can make it. Unfortunately we haven''t consistently done so yet this season so Neil need to be able to change things for the better. Nice to feel excited about the prospect though at last!

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Interesting how the bookies odds are currently putting us and Ipswich neck and neck for promotion at 4th and 5th favourites. Check out here - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

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Strong squad (crucial for this part of the season) and clever January business, together with the players being organised and giving a fk will bring us as a minimum a play-off... but should bring us an automatic.

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Even if things don''t go to plan on Saturday we still have every chance of finishing in the top two. Its all about putting a really good run together and piling the pressure on those at the top, and if we are in the mix going into the last few fixtures anything can happen.

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[quote user="Jack Flash"]Interesting how the bookies odds are currently putting us and Ipswich neck and neck for promotion at 4th and 5th favourites. Check out here - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

[/quote]that merely tells how much has been betthat''s all

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 whereas in the real world it issadly there are still a number who believe that bookies set their odds based on probability

ps if you feel that I ''always do that'' why bother with the post ?

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[quote user="City1st"] whereas in the real world it issadly there are still a number who believe that bookies set their odds based on probability

ps if you feel that I ''always do that'' why bother with the post ?

[/quote]

Isn''t that what betting is based on, the likelihood of something happening? For example, Brighton were 33/1 on to win at 3-1 up last night and it slid to 5/1 on when Ipswich got their 2nd.

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It is a known fact that Bookmakers set odds based on a mixture of statistical probabilities and public opinion. Bookmakers do not speculate (gamble). Their priority is balancing the books.

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[quote user="City1st"]that merely tells how much has been bet[/quote]But before anybody can actually place a bet the bookmakers need to form a book. Therefore the bookmakers set the initial odds & then the bets that people have placed will influence how the odds move or fluctuate.Look in the newspaper tomorrow morning - bookmakers will have formed a market for every horse race there is and those initial odds will have absolutely nothing to do with what people have bet.The odds quoted will be based on form, race conditions, inside knowledge and a fair amount calculating as to how people might actually bet.What''s more, they''re not often wrong. That''s why bookmakers generally win and punters generally lose.

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[quote user="Woodman"][quote user="City1st"] whereas in the real world it issadly there are still a number who believe that bookies set their odds based on probability

ps if you feel that I ''always do that'' why bother with the post ?

[/quote]

Isn''t that what betting is based on, the likelihood of something happening? For example, Brighton were 33/1 on to win at 3-1 up last night and it slid to 5/1 on when Ipswich got their 2nd.[/quote]All to do with the amounts being bet while inplay and the score and match time remaining. Nothing very strange about that.Bookies are in business to make money and set odds in order to win whatever the result. They only deal in probabilities with the opening odds show. After that the prices are dictated by where the money goes. City 1st is quite correct.

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I''m starting to wonder if it won''t take all that much to get automatic promotion this season.No team seems to be all that close to an average of 2 points a game this season (Derby and Bournemouth coming, closest 3 points off). Last season Leicester were on 60 points at this stage, and table topping Bournemouth wouldn''t have even made the top 2 (and second place had a game in hand around this time), making this promotion race almost completely incomparable to last years.http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2013-2014/table/2014-01-25With 20 or so games left i think we can muster a push for automatic promotion. I haven''t looked at their fixtures, but if Bournemouth maintain their season''s form so far (i personally doubt it) they might just break 85. But in all honesty i don''t think second place will need much more than 80 points, if that.Yes our loss tally of 7 is high, especially when you compare it to our last promotion season where we only lost 8. Yet that''s only 2 more losses than Ipswich and Middlesborough currently (hardest teams to beat so far statistically), and one less than Derby and Bournemouth. And, surprisingly perhaps, we''re drawing at a lower rate than we did in 2010-11 (with our current manager i expect that only to lower further). When you also take into account that in the 2 years after we were promoted the lowest loss count for any of the 4 automatically promoted teams was 9 (Cardiff, 2013), and Hull managed to get automatically promoted with as many as 15 losses (i don''t expect us to come close to that), it doesn''t seem beyond us in this divisions far from outstanding promotion race.Yes we''ll need to improve on our season''s form so far - especially our home form, with the kind of fixtures we have coming up (that really could be the be all and end all) - but we always knew that had to be the case (that''s why went through the trouble of sacking our last manager). I think we can permit as many as 3 or 4 losses in the remaining 20 games, depending on how many draws we get out the remaining 16 or 17 (by no means impossible - i remember Roeder''s run of 1 loss in 13 games; only match that repugnant weasel''s best spell of form, with the team we have now, and we won''t go too far wrong).But all in all i think automatic promotion is still within our sights, and achievable at that.

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