Round figures

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

It''s always nice, not to mention easier for the maths, to look at round figures, and today it''s fairly easy to do.Since the start of December we''ve played 10 games, with 30 pts on offer. And we''ve taken 20 of those points, so exactly 2 per game.With the way the fixtures are now piling up, the next ten games will only take us to the end of March. If we take a similar 20 point haul during those games, surely we''ll be nailed on for the play-offs, but what extra haul would we need to be seriously in the running for a top 2 place ?

[Mutley 73]

I''m really hoping for a win at Charlton as that will mean:

First ten games = 20 points

Second ten game period = 10 points: Total 30 points

Third ten game period = 20 points (dependent on a win tomorrow): Total 50 points

Continue the two point per game ratio until the end of the season (another 16 games) and we will reach 82 points.

That could be enough for the automatics and definitely will be enough for the play offs and probably in third or fourth place rather than fifth or sixth.

Shows how important to to our season that poor period was, especially losing and drawing so many home games.

Out of interest the average points total over the last five seasons for finishing seventh has been 70 points, surprisingly lower than I expected to discover and even more so the average for finishing third is only 81.4 points!

Therefore with 82 points we scrape into second place? Possibly?

With the evenness of the top six/seven/eight sides at present will this mean that this is an even more realistic points total required or not?

A call out for the statisticians among us!

[Mutley 73]

Our promotion in 2011 supports the above for automatic as well:

1. QPR 88 points

2. NCFC 84 points

3. Swansea 80 points

4. Cardiff 80 points

5. Reading 77 points

6. Forest 75 points

7. Leeds 72 points

[Tetteys Jig 830]

A lot of it will come down to who we get our results against as well. Take Ipswich for example, if we take just our home game against them into account, we win, we''re a point behind with a better goal difference, we lose, we''re 7 points off them and about level on goal difference. Mini battles like that will prove vital.

As a result, I think we could scrape second on 82 points if we get our results against our rivals and they decide to have a lot of draws with each other. Currently, we are ten points off and 10/13 goals off the top two.

We have Derby at home to play still so I''ll use them as the example. If we beat them say 1-0, we''ll be 7 points and 8 goals off them. If we were to get to a stage of level points with them, our goal differences would be about level. If we lose to them, we''d be 13 points off them and 12 goals off, a near insurmountable task.

We will know a lot more by the start of March about where we''re set. If we can come through the next 4 games with at least 10 points (a massive ask but it''s what''s necessary now) then we will be looking on for automatic contention. Anything less, then we can only really look at the playoffs.

[lake district canary 4,531]

With 51 points available this season, we have a potential haul of 98.  

17 matches and every one winnable.

It would take an amazing run to get

all 51, but it is not beyond the possibilities to go on a run and win most of them with a draw or two thrown in.     We''re on 47 points and if you said 85 would be enough for a top two place we would need twelve wins and two draws. That would allow for three defeats.   I can''t see us losing too many the rest of this season, so I don''t think that is unreasonable.  

The two points a game thing is irrelevant now imo, you have to be positive and aim high.   That said, you have to win the next game each week, so focusing on one game at a time is important.

So a potential 98 points to aim at.  Everything is possible.