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Essex_Canary

14 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats

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Our ''blip'' over the last few months has meant that with the season now half way done we are a fair way behind half way on getting to the 85 points that almost guarantees automatic promotion. Having secured 37 points from 23 games we now need to get 48 more to reach that magic figure.

14 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats gets us there, but is it too much to ask that we don''t lose more than 3 games? The expectation has to be that we''ve got to win 8 or 9 of our last 11 home games and then pick up 5 or 6 victories on the road.

As a matter of comparison 74-75 points is usually the minimum for playoffs which would mean we are on course to do that at the half way stage, but still requires 10 wins and 7 draws.

The key has to be to keep the momentum going, we''ve proved in our last two promotion campaigns that we can do it, but the next 5 weeks will probably determine whether automatic is a realistic goal or not, both in terms of results and the players coming and more crucially out of the club.

Thoughts?

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my thoughts are that sadly our bad October/November has left us with a margin for error that I don''t think we''ll be keep ahead of to reach the top 2.

Every dropped points....even those such as at a place like Derby is a step backwards when anyone above us wins.

we''ve now lost the same amount of games as Burnley did all last season, that displays the tightrope that we''re walking for the rest of the season.

I think we''ll get a playoff place, and you dont even have to be a very good side to get into the playoffs.

when we sneaked into 6th place in 2001/2 we lost a third of our games that season.

after that ....who knows??

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Long way to go - one game at a time.Other teams will have poor runs.Everything to play for & I wouldn''t rule out automatic promotion yet as several teams have come from a lot further back than 6 places 8 points to get promoted

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[quote user="Making Plans"]Long way to go - one game at a time.Other teams will have poor runs.Everything to play for & I wouldn''t rule out automatic promotion yet as several teams have come from a lot further back than 6 places 8 points to get promoted[/quote]

I don''t have the facts to hand.....but I''m not really sure that they have?....who ever finishes in the top 2 in this league ,is usually around the top 4-ish by Christmas??

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Just at looked up some stats, a) because I''m bored, and b) to get a feel for previous seasons.

The average number of points required over the last seven seasons to finish second is indeed 85.

During that time the average number of home points picked up by the second placed team was 47, 14 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats.

For us to get to 47 points at home, because of our abject record from September to November, we now need to win 9 from 11 at home.

The average number of away points is 38, 10 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats...meaning we''ve got to win 5, draw 6 and lose just 1 to hit the target.

So in total the second half of the season needs 14 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats.

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I see no reason why this cannot be achieved and will be surprised if we lose more than two more games all season, I''m serious........

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Christmas 2007

Teams promoted were 2nd & 4th, with the playoff winners 11th

Christmas 2008

Teams promoted were 1st & 3rd, with the playoff winners 4th

Christmas 2009

Teams promoted were 1st & 2nd, with the playoff winners 7th

Christmas 2010

Teams promoted were 1st & 5th(us), with the playoff winners 4th

Christmas 2011

Teams promoted were 7th & 1st, with the playoff winners 2nd

Christmas 2012

Teams promoted were 1st & 2nd, with the playoff winners 3rd

Christmas 2013

Teams promoted were 2nd & 1st, with the playoff winners 3rd

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Averages are just that, averages. Some seasons you need more points than average while other seasons you need less points than average.My guess is that this season you''ll need less than average points (85) for slots 1st & 2nd.

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Will be interesting to see the league table this time last year to see if there were as many teams in the picture for promotion.

There will be a few teams in the top 6 who are going to have their blips and who will lose games they should win.

3 points tomorrow is the only requirement and if we get them I doubt all of the teams above us will get 3

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]I see no reason why this cannot be achieved and will be surprised if we lose more than two more games all season, I''m serious........[/quote]
Unfortunately whilst we''re capable of not losing more than two games, luck will play a big part. It''s quite easy to not win games purely out of bad luck. Cardiff at home last season, Charlton this season. Perfect examples.

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[quote user="Rich T The Biscuit"]Will be interesting to see the league table this time last year to see if there were as many teams in the picture for promotion. [/quote]http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2013-2014/table/2013-12-29

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jeeezthis has been covered elsewhere, but why not againafter 23 games -2011 we were 8 points off the top - automatic promotion2010 we were 11 points off the top CHAMPIONS by a long way !so stop your bleatingget off your knees and recognise that we have probably the strongest squad we have ever had outside of the PLwe are not ''coming from nowhere and hoping'' ............. as the last few games have show what we can donow watch us DO IT !

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[quote user="City1st"]jeeezthis has been covered elsewhere, but why not againafter 23 games -2011 we were 8 points off the top - automatic promotion2010 we were 11 points off the top CHAMPIONS by a long way !so stop your bleatingget off your knees and recognise that we have probably the strongest squad we have ever had outside of the PLwe are not ''coming from nowhere and hoping'' ............. as the last few games have show what we can donow watch us DO IT ![/quote]As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals, you''re quoting an exception to the rule rather than quoting the rule. Last time we had a more experienced manager driving a strengthened team on a consistent run from league one all the way to 12th place in the premiership. Today we have the U18s boss trying to turn round a depleted side with a losing mentality that has recently slid down the table and been booed off the pitch against Reading.The league is more competetive than back in 2010/11, look at the number of teams within 7 points of 6th place since then: 2010-2011 = 2; 2011-12 = 2; 2012-13 = 7; 2013-14 = 5. In my opinion it''s very unlikely that we''ll finish in the top two and we''ll have our work cut out trying to finish in the top six. Any poor or indifferent run of form or injuries to key players could easily see us slip back and allow other teams overtake us into the playoff spots.It''s a very even league this year but this doesn''t imply that it''s because teams are poor or that it''s easier for us to push higher into the top two. I don''t think we possess the consistency or the quality to make the automatic spots especially when we can''t beat the main contenders such as Derby or Bournemouth and get thrashed by Middlesborough. Derby was perhaps something of a yardstick in that failing to beat them (when they weren''t at their best) showed that we don''t have it in us to go up automatically.

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"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"

eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?after your registering date of 6/12/2014 I would presume

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A massive big ask but possible, especially with the squad we have and knowing the high standard we''re capable of playing!

I remember coming from nowhere in 1982 to sneak the 3rd promotion spot!

Likewise all serious fans over 40 will remember 1985 when we looked in no danger of going down but did!

Fastforward 10 years to 1994/95, Xmas 94 we were 7th in the table and then were relegated in May!

Even last season, Sunderland were p*ss poor most of the season yet stayed up after getting 7 very unexpected points in 3 games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U!

Hopefully our bad home home form from September, October, November will inspire the team to ensure it doesn''t happen again and hopefully we''ve used up all our bad luck!

Its frustrating cause this bad spell of home form looks like it will deny us automatic promotion. The home games against Charlton (L), Rotherham (D), Leeds (D), Brighton (D) and Reading (L) when we dominated against limited teams but didn''t win were the worst offending games. Turn them 3 draws into wins and the 2 defeats into draws, which wouldn''t have required barely any change in the pattern of the games and then we''d be joint top!

And that''s without considering the 0-0 draw at Sheffield Wednesday where we battered them and the last 5 minutes debacle at Forest!

In over 40 years of watching games at Carrow Road, Millwall yesterday put in one of the, if not worst performance from a visiting team in a League game I''ve ever seen, yet had we played them a couple of months ago its likely we''d of not won the game!

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Leicester managed 54 points in the second half of last season and Burnley 49.Its certainly do-able but we cannot afford many slip ups.

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not a massive askin 2010 we picked up 50 points in the 2nd half of the seasonin 2011 we picked up 45 points in the 2nd half of the season45 would see us up as automatic spot50 would see us as Championseven a lowly 37 which is what we got in the first 23 games , and which everyone keeps squeaking was such a terrible autumn would still see us in the play offs

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It''s a big ask but on our day we are capable of beating most if not all sides in the Championship. The question is can we be consistent enough, can we avoid injuries to our key players and lastly, can we beat yes beat most of our rivals above us, because that is what we have to do. McCarthy seems to have got the very best out of what would seem to be an average side and a consistency that has surprised most of us.

Bournemouth have been scoring freely and they too have a very good manager. They also have Surman who has played his part and will be keen to prove our management wrong.

Derby we know are going to be there or there abouts with Martin scoring regularly and have a great midfield, but we were a match for them away, so hopefully we would do better when we play them at home. Middlesbrough possibly a bit flashy but have a great defence with Ayala prominent. Did we make a big mistake in letting him go? I think we did. With the right guidance and coaching he would have been better than some of the defenders we have here and he is still young. There are other sides that I''m sure will also make an impact and a late bid for promotion but for now these appear to be the best sides.

Will teams like Fulham and Bolton be chasing our tails if we slip up?

There''s a long way to go and there will most probably be many more twists and turns, but I''m hoping the top two or three clubs have there bad run of results that we have had, which will give us a chance to make up some ground..

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[quote user="City1st"]"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?[/quote]It was earlier in the season, I suspect you posted after coming home from the pub or something. We''re well short of 100 goals/points but maybe if you keep drinking the chrimbo sherry you''ll post about us winning the PL title next season. You''re not one for quality debate or football discussion, but there sure is plenty of pie-eyed entertainment!

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[quote user="tenpenny"][quote user="City1st"]"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?[/quote]It was earlier in the season, I suspect you posted after coming home from the pub or something. We''re well short of 100 goals/points but maybe if you keep drinking the chrimbo sherry you''ll post about us winning the PL title next season. You''re not one for quality debate or football discussion, but there sure is plenty of pie-eyed entertainment![/quote]This thread?http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/1/3196336/ShowPost.aspx#3196336

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I''ll be very surprised if the league winner makes 85 points this season

Too close to call but the top 6 barring Brentford who are well over achieving. We should be making that top 6 instead of them. Anything else is an absolute failure

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It''s possible. We''ve made it difficult for ourselves with the last couple of months, but on our day, nobody in this division can beat us. I can see the interest, but I''d not worry too much about it. Let''s enjoy winning as many games as we can and see what happens at the end of the season.

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[quote user="morty"][quote user="tenpenny"][quote user="City1st"]"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?[/quote]It was earlier in the season, I suspect you posted after coming home from the pub or something. We''re well short of 100 goals/points but maybe if you keep drinking the chrimbo sherry you''ll post about us winning the PL title next season. You''re not one for quality debate or football discussion, but there sure is plenty of pie-eyed entertainment![/quote]This thread?http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/1/3196336/ShowPost.aspx#3196336[/quote]That''s the one, someone reposted a link to it a couple of weeks ago. Automatic promotion would take a 1982-like effort, possible but unlikely imho.

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[quote user="tenpenny"][quote user="morty"][quote user="tenpenny"][quote user="City1st"]"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?[/quote]It was earlier in the season, I suspect you posted after coming home from the pub or something. We''re well short of 100 goals/points but maybe if you keep drinking the chrimbo sherry you''ll post about us winning the PL title next season. You''re not one for quality debate or football discussion, but there sure is plenty of pie-eyed entertainment![/quote]This thread?http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/1/3196336/ShowPost.aspx#3196336[/quote]That''s the one, someone reposted a link to it a couple of weeks ago. Automatic promotion would take a 1982-like effort, possible but unlikely imho.[/quote]

As above PLUS we have got to hang on to ALL our players.

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Checking back on some of these stats from previous years I have to say I an worried that nobody will achieve promotion this season.

If they still relegate 3 from the PL we could have fixture congestion next season...

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[quote user="morty"][quote user="tenpenny"][quote user="City1st"]"As with your prediction of walking the league with 100 points and 100 goals"eh ?when might that have been bin boy  ?[/quote]It was earlier in the season, I suspect you posted after coming home from the pub or something. We''re well short of 100 goals/points but maybe if you keep drinking the chrimbo sherry you''ll post about us winning the PL title next season. You''re not one for quality debate or football discussion, but there sure is plenty of pie-eyed entertainment![/quote]This thread?http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/1/3196336/ShowPost.aspx#3196336[/quote]oh dearpoor morticianever the sharpest knive in the boxit was a pis  stakeas was clear to mostbar yourself and the simple minded binwit ... but he has an excuse, he is from suffolk

unless of course you can point to the words where I said we would achieve either of those totals

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Providing City remain there or there about until the end February that, in my opinion, is the business end of the season when it gets serious and a big push from there can achieve automatic promotion.

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I remain of the opinion that anything around 85 points will be enough for an auto spot. This seasons mid term leaders, Bournemouth, have the second lowest points total points for any year in Championship history. Watford had 43 points in 2007/08 and finished top with 81 points. In every other season the leading team after 23 games had at least 47 points and more often than not, more than 50 points.We now require a solid run and need to be back within 3 points of the top two by at worst the end of February. It is not going to be easy but I think we have the strength in depth that many of the other pretenders lack and when injuries and suspensions start to bite, as they inevitably will, we will see the benefit in terms of points.I see 14 wins as a minimum requirement. Not easy but certainly within the realms of the possible.[Y]

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I belive we can still do it . We have collected 37 pts from 24 games that alone tells me we can match that in the last 24 we also can say we outplayed teams and lost 2/3 games we should have won I predict we will pickup 46 pts from the last 24 83 pts should get us automatic promotion. Can not see the top three as of now continuing their run off wins

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