Luck is on Norwich's side (latest blog)

[Daniel Brigham 0]

Norwich''s strong start has been built on strong elements of luck but, says Daniel Brigham, that''s the sign of a good sideFootball, it''s good to have you back. It’s

been only a week but the international break always feels like a double

maths lesson sandwiched between lunch and setting fire to stuff in

chemistry, a grim interruption from the frolics of league football. It

does, however, allow you time to step back and assess the health of

your club away from the waterfall of matches in the Championship. As

Norwich head into the clash between the division’s best squads, here

are the facts: they are fourth in the table with 10 points, three wins, a

draw, a loss, eight goals and three against. Those numbers are happy,

smiling facts, a glowing fireplace of reassurance on a cold winter’s

night. Away from the numbers, things are also good. The players

look like they’re enjoying playing football, Lewis Grabban has been

signed to score goals and is scoring goals, Bradley Johnson has grafted

Gareth Bale’s left foot onto his own, the emphasis is on passing, the

mother of the Murphy twins can’t tell them apart, Olsson, Howson, Ruddy,

Hooper, Turner, Redmond and Tettey haven’t been sold, Conor McGrandles

may have the finest name in the land and the club appears to have made

some astute signings, both young and experienced (although, using the

Mike Sheron rule, we won’t really know until we’ve seen them play for

us). Above all of this though – above the points, the goals, the

new players and the verve – there is one sure sign that Norwich have

turned a corner since the icy miseries of last season: they’ve become a

lucky team again. The early narrative of this season could have

been so different. What if the impressive Watford hadn’t had Joel

Ekstrand sent off after two minutes? What if Blackburn had rightly been

awarded a penalty when 1-0 up? What if Norwich hadn’t been given their

dubious penalty? What if the rebound hadn’t fallen straight back to

Grabban to equalise? What if Daryl Murphy hadn’t dimly missed a sitter

for Ipswich just after half time? What if, what if, what if.  Because

of the huge reward placed on goals – last season there were only 2.8

goals per game in the Premier League – luck plays a part in football

perhaps more than in any other sport. With technology allowing every

aspect of the game to be controlled and the opposition to be examined

forensically it has narrowed the gap between most sides. The margin for

error is starting to get squeezed like a kid with bad acne.  In

rugby, cricket, basketball and tennis, for example, the scoring systems

are such that they allow teams or players more opportunities to atone

for mistakes. This favours the better sides as it reduces the chance of

an upset – put simply, the more points or scoring opportunities on

offer, the more likely that Goliath will predictably beat David. So,

in football, luck is important and already this season Norwich have had

the benefit of it. That late euphoria against Blackburn – a welcome

reminder of the Paul Lambert days – could quite easily have been a

dispiriting defeat ahead of the derby, which could have been drawn if

Daryl Murphy had done what he is paid to do. So why is this fortune a good sign for Norwich? Well, to use a cliché, they have made their own luck.Ekstrand

was sent off because he struggled from the off to cope with Nathan

Redmond''s pace. Norwich beat Blackburn because, despite the skittish

start, they never stopped pressing, never stopped looking for goals as

the attacks kept rolling in. At Portman Road Norwich created far better

opportunities than the one that fell to Murphy. The season is only five

games old, but it is clear that Neil Adams has installed an attacking

philosophy that will have luck on its side more often than not.  There

was no luck involved in Manchester United gaining a reputation for

scoring late winners – a lot of envy, a lot of swearing, but no luck.

The same could be said of Norwich under Lambert. They scored late goals

because they attacked until they could attack no longer. With that sort

of pressure, and with defences getting increasingly Frank Spencer as the

clock ticks down, more often than not goals will come. Alex Ferguson

and Lambert knew what it was to make your own luck; Chris Hughton did

not or, if he did know, then he shied away from it.  Adams is

very much in the Lambert mould. With defensive reinforcements brought in

on transfer deadline day, he now has the solid, obdurate foundations

from which to mount attack after attack, swarm after swarm, allowing

Norwich to makes pests of themselves until the very final minute. There will be no settling for a point and, if they get a little luck along the way, then they will have thoroughly deserved it.Daniel Brigham is features of The Cricketer. He tweets at @dan_brigham

[Splendid Rush 2]

Your blogs just get better and better Daniel.Keep them coming.

[lake district canary 4,531]

Good blog Daniel. I agree with this - "Adams is

very much in the Lambert mould. With defensive reinforcements brought in

on transfer deadline day, he now has the solid, obdurate foundations

from which to mount attack after attack, swarm after swarm, allowing

Norwich to makes pests of themselves until the very final minute"I''ve just remarked a similar thought elsewhere - the positive force we have now - similar to Lambert - is backed up by a much stronger looking squad than he had, with proven players and exciting youngsters in it.   So I agree there is no reason why we cannot attack every game with total positivity.  No other plan than to just go for it!

[Dubai Mark 0]

I like reading your blogs, but this one, whilst as usual to a good standard, is a bit over the top with the NA being very much in the Lambert mould...........

Why?

Well because so far after, for me, a very disappointing showing in the few games he had last season, and what has been a decent start to this, it really is a bit early to be making comparisons with Lambert.

Now, if at the end of the season he has taken us up as Champions with a record number of points and amazing goal difference, then and only them can comparisons be made (and with the squad he now has, something like this should be possible)......I personally hope that NA does indeed succeed and can ultimately be compared to Lambert...but right now he is only really starting to put the laces in the first hole of Lambert''s boots.

[Robin Hood canary 0]

Top top quality blog as ever. Thank you for making the effort to write it.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

I disagree with your thesis entirely.

We are not where we are theough "strong elements of luck".

We are where we are on merit. We have earned the right through our performances and the coaching. It''s quite disrespectful to Neil Adams to suggest otherwise.

You can put a hundred what-ifs but they are all hypothetical and can be cancelled by another one hundred hypothetical what-ifs. It''s a meaningless exercise so stick to the facts.

The fact is it is hard work and not luck that has put us in joint top position this evening.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Spot on Rocky. It would be just as easy to say we were unlucky to have a player sent off at wolves and unlucky that the ref found that 2nd minute to add on against Bournemouth. We are where we are on merit.

[Bill 1,788]

As to luckwhere would we be now if the fixture list had thrown up Fulham rather than Wolves for the first game  ?otherwise agree with the last two

[Daniel Brigham 0]

Erm Nutty Nigel and Rock the boat. Thanks for your feedback but you''ve missed the point of my piece there haven''t you

[Branston Pickle 3,634]

Sorry, but I''m inclined to agree with those disagreeing with the opening premise: "Norwich''s strong start has been built on strong elements of luck" has it?

Not in my opinion - we''re scoring on average two goals a game and have a decent side playing (generally) decent football and enjoying it.

[Monty13 2,229]

Good piece again Daniel, I think some people apparently either only read the first line or your point went totally over their head!

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

Not missed the point at all Daniel. You refer to luck in your headline your first line your last line and several references in between. Your point is that luck has been on our side and illustrate this view with several what-if scenarios to back up your claim

Now you are a good writer and can craft an enjoyable read but your point about luck is so wrong and disrespectful to the manager.

We are where we are on merit.

[Branston Pickle 3,634]

I have not missed the point and agree fully with RTB.

[T 190]

The OP is correct that luck in football plays a greater element than other sports as there is a greater chance that a team with less resources will beat a team with more resources because of the lower number of scoring opportunities.

However the luck element evens out over time just like the odds of a coin being head or tails comes closer to 50pc over time and it happens quite quickly so 2nd place is more down to the club than luck even after 6 games.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Erm Daniel. I haven''t seen a reaction like that since I suggested to my next door neighbour that she''d got her best frock out of a catalogue....

 

[;)]

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

"With technology allowing every

aspect of the game to be controlled......"

really ?how ?

[Daniel Brigham 0]

How on earth is that piece disrespectful to the manager (not that that should necessarily be a problem). My point is the way Adams has set us up, the emphasis he puts on attacking, means Norwich will inevitably make their own luck throughout the season.That''s down to Adams.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Erm Daniel. I haven''t seen a reaction like that since I suggested to my next door neighbour that she''d got her best frock out of a catalogue....

 

[;)]

 

 

[/quote]I kind of saw her point, nutty. It was a catalogue for farm machinery...

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="Daniel Brigham"]Erm Nutty Nigel and Rock the boat. Thanks for your feedback but you''ve missed the point of my piece there haven''t you[/quote]

 

Whether others missed your point or not, Daniel, if I were your editor I would suggest it''s a risk you run as a writer if using more than 800 words when 50 should suffice to make a simple point. 

[Bill 1,788]

or even 9  ''you are more likely to win if you attack''

[T 190]

I think it is fairly clear why the OP did not like double maths.

[Daniel Brigham 0]

Ah, you guys.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

Or how about:

Attack!!!