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Bill

100 points, 100 goals

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While we have had a great start and we have reason to be confident the optimism is starting to strike me as similar to the "on loan from the premiership" debacle all those moons ago.   Over confidence killed us then,  and we dont need the same to affect us now.

 

We can be champions with style,  but if thats with 88 or 108 pts I really dont give a gnatts chuff; 

 

 

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Flecky''s Flip-Flop     It''s not entirely a reflection on the money bet City 1st. The whole difficulty in odds setting is attempting to balance the potential risk and reward. So, if someone came in now and lay £1m on, say Rotherham, you wouldn''t find their odds change very much, even though they would have the most money on them. It would be really silly to suddenly drop Rotherham in to evens, because you still want people to back them. Similarly, if we now lost our next 5 games in a row, but no money was taken on the market at all, then our odds would drift hugely. If it was purely on the amount of money bet then it would stay the same. It''s a delicate balance of which money bet is just one factor. It''s not a particularly lucrative market and most money is placed before the season starts. So the odds then tend to change with performances.eh ?how on earth would they balance the book ?

"So the odds then tend to change with performances."err, that''s because the betting doesyou are confusing cause with effect

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[quote user="lord montyjones"]You do not understand betting city1st , get over it[/quote]I am sure we would all welcome your take on where I am wrongyou could also tell us who you really arebut the betting will do for now

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futile, you never listen.check online yourself how it works. Your right in some aspects but have no clue on football. Sometimes bookies want to take a bet on for a variety of reasons and will keep the same odds or even better them on a well backed fav. In football there is no such thing as fixed odds coupons as you stated

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maybe you could explain to us all what the odds are that are quoted for Saturday''s football games

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In the coupon they are plainy about the percentage chance of all 3 possible results based on form. They will be over rounded to approx 108 % to give the bookie the advantage. Take a random match, Leicester v Man Utd , the majority of punts will be for Utd in singles and accs but the price will not change from say Weds to the Sat. Online they will amend slightly once team news is known etc but not vastly. I''ve already told you what odds norwich will be to win the league after Saturdays match regardless of who sticks a few quid on them

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dear me, it must appear so easyfor you to look a bit up on Google and then regurgitate it on herehow on earth could " each match would be the same price on all 3 results in each game" as they are three seperate bets just as with horse racing where you have a win and a placeso why not explain what you understand to be fixed odds

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I don''t need to read up about odds, you do though. Doubt you get the over round per cent pricing up yet. In your world if there was about to be a spin on a roulette table and ninety per cent put chips on black reds odds would move !

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play with thiswhat a sad little troll you are under your long forgotten name

so for the benefit of us all, why not explain -"how on earth would they balance the book ?" in regard to this £Im bet placed on Rotherham (see above)and what are the odds called that are offered (printed) on the football coupons in bookies if not fixed odds, as you claim ?

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now perhaps you can tell us all the difference between fixed odds and individual oddsand in your own time (Google is up permanently) how the bookmaker would make a profit from that £1m Rotherham bet

ps your spelling of you''re has pointed me towards who you usually post on here as

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City 1st. If they balanced the book completely then they simply would never make any money. They would pay out exactly what they took! The reason why bookies don''t change the odds on Rotherham because they''ve taken a £1m bet is simply because they want people to keep betting on Rotherham. It''s easy money!If you suddenly drop them in to 1/1000000, to balance the books, then you put everybody off backing them because it simply isn''t worth it. So you effectively kill a market, the Rotherham to win the Championship'' market. Also, on your model, it would mean that bookmakers odds would differ drastically from firm to firm. If the £1m was bet through Hills, for example, then they would be dropping their price drastically and leaving any other optimistic punters to take hugely better odds elsewhere, rather than taking the easy money themselves!

 

And before you ask, I know this from my brother. His job is, you''ve guessed it, setting odds. He has also worked for Coral, Hills and ran two local bookies, in which I worked too.

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The spelling I will give you ! That said it''s not an English exam and I''m on a kids mobile phone.. If I was ladbrokes I''d welcome a 1 mill bet on Rotherham, if they hit super form it would be be a lay on the exchanges or another company. I''m calling a truce, I like your links to watch the goals and if it''s so important for you to always be right then I concede

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I dont know if fixed odds football coupons exist anymore or not but the used to be a workplace staple.A dozen of you chipping in a few bob and picking a home win / away win / draw selection eachMidweek European nights were the best choosing then unheard of teams in the old European CupAll odds where fixed and printed on the couponCant think that we ever won much but it was more about the taking part ................. happy days

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"Flecky''s Flip-Flop"]

City 1st. If they balanced the book completely then they simply would never make any money. They would pay out exactly what they took! The reason why bookies don''t change the odds on Rotherham because they''ve taken a £1m bet is simply because they want people to keep betting on Rotherham. It''s easy money!If you suddenly drop them in to 1/1000000, to balance the books, then you put everybody off backing them because it simply isn''t worth it. So you effectively kill a market, the Rotherham to win the Championship'' market. Also, on your model, it would mean that bookmakers odds would differ drastically from firm to firm. If the £1m was bet through Hills, for example, then they would be dropping their price drastically and leaving any other optimistic punters to take hugely better odds elsewhere, rather than taking the easy money themselves!

 

And before you ask, I know this from my brother. His job is, you''ve guessed it, setting odds. He has also worked for Coral, Hills and ran two local bookies, in which I worked too.

odds would not differ from firm to firm as that original bet would be laid off to other bookies ie spreading the exposure (risk) the idea that one bookmaker would carry that one bet on their own is absurd, therefore their odds would be based on the far smaller risk they were each carrying(it seems strange that you completely ignored this fundemental part of bookmaking)

ps it''s 1 and my work is finished so off - enjoy the afternnon

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Flecky''s Flip-Flop"]In easy terms City 1st. The bookmaker makes the profit because Rotherham are not going to win the league

that is silly because bookies don''t work that wayas you should know

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[quote user="lord montyjones"]The spelling I will give you ! That said it''s not an English exam and I''m on a kids mobile phone.. If I was ladbrokes I''d welcome a 1 mill bet on Rotherham, if they hit super form it would be be a lay on the exchanges or another company. I''m calling a truce, I like your links to watch the goals and if it''s so important for you to always be right then I concede[/quote]clearly you are clueless"a 1 mill bet on Rotherham, if they hit super form it would be be a lay on the exchanges or another company." however you previously told us all that bookies adjust their odds based on form, so why would other companies then take that huge bet if Rotherhan had hit super form ?glad you like the other stuff - though it seems strange that somebody who has been a member since 2006 has only posted 100 or so posts yet is also over this thread like a bookies runners suitspelling is nothing to do with an exam, merely a very definite indication of certain traits with certain posters, and your hurried departure maybe due to a fear that I might point out who you are normally (if that is possible in your case) are on heregame set and match I think

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You lay off bets to spread the risk. Of course. But you don''t lay off a bet which is effectively risk free. It''s all about making money and assessing risk. If you lay it all off then you only make any money if Rotherham actually win the league and if you laid it at greater odds than those you gave. That would be impossible if the markets only moved when bets were made. On the other side of the coin, if I had Rotherham at 200/1 to win the league and they then won their first 10 games then I would have reduced their odds significantly even if I had taken no money on them. As I would also have lengthened their odds to be relegated.

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Are you still on target to be £86 MILLION pounds in debt?

Yes you are.

I''m surprised you can afford the internet to post on here, but my guess is you''re in a public cafe.

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Sad thing is Hogesar we can''t take the Pi55 too much at the binners are in a far stronger position at this point then we are.....a settled performing team on a roll with a manager who knows how to get teams up.....promotion will cut their debt and another seadon down here and we would start to see debt back or the sale of the bigger wage earners.

I''m all for keeping a little quiet at this time!

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