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In the last 10 seasons, I think there has only been 6 teams who have been relegated from the EPL and gained promotion the next season. And QPR with the exception of gaining promotion though play-offs. That''s 6 out of 30 teams which is 20%

My questions are; Even though our main target is to gain promotion back to the EPL, should we expect it?

What is the key to get gain promotion from arguably one of the most competitive leagues in the world?

And where has the previous relegated teams from the EPL gone wrong in failing to achieve promotion straight back? Considering most people believe they have an advantage with finance and parachute payments.

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These are good questions at the heart of a promotion bid:

1. Should we "expect" promotion? For the reasons you cite, no. But we should aim for it and work hard to make it happen.

2. The "key to get gain promotion" is consistency, aided by pace, penetration and good passing. At the other end, a stable defense with a good understanding.

3. Other "teams from the EPL" have "gone wrong" by "expecting it" and having to sell players to survive. The key will be how many players we lose and have to replace. Benno is a ready made replacement for Snodgrass, with pace as well. Lafferty and Grabban already seem to be settling in well. So far, so good, but it''s a long season.

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The statistics for the last ten seasons are somewhat invalidated by the vast increase in Parachute money and by the implementation of the FFP rulings.

 

The former gives us more chance of retaining players as well as giving us some necessary clout in the transfer market for either replacements or re-enforcements as needed, especially in the winter window.

 

Parachute payments also make us somewhat immune to the FFP restrictions. Up to a point, of course.

 

The dice has been heavily loaded in favour of the relegated sides recently. For this reason our best chance of seeing PL football at Carrow Road again in the foreseeable future will lie in us being successful during this coming season. The advantages diminish after that. 

 

 

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As far as i''m concerned, I see us as a ''very well set'' relegated team. Teams go down for a number of reasons (all with the obvious reason of ending in the bottom load, yeah, yeah).

Some are the promoted team who make not enough investment into a distinctly championship side and hop straight back down (us in 2005, Burnley last time, Blackpool). The advantages for them are that they usually maintain a settled squad and have no overheads to deal with. It could be a positive in this way and also could mean that their settled squad is simply further strengthened for another assault at promotion, or it could be a negative if they got lucky with the promotion (late run up via the playoffs, benefit from mismanagement of other clubs last time around). This seems to be a favourable tactic of a yoyo team just starting up. It''s relatively risk free but means you effectively are squandering a great chance of top flight establishment.

Another type is the established, pretty well run side that has an aging team that ran out of ideas. Think of Fulham last year or the likes of Forest when they went down. These often have players on big wages that are in the decline. Advantages include the decent experience most of these have to get straight back into mounting promotion but a negative could be that things have gone so stale, it''ll take more than a year or two to get through the ''in transition'' period.

Lastly we''ve got the badly mismanaged club that is usually "too big to go down". Think Leeds, QPR, Newcastle, West Ham. These clubs have overstretched and purchased unwisely on the whole and have undermotivated, past it players sat there on big wages. The positives here are that they often do possess and maintain players that are genuinely "too good for this level" and through using them, they can get back up. Another is that usually there are some very talented youth players waiting for a game that can easily hack this level (think Carroll at Newcastle or even Smith and Adeyemi for us in league 1). Negatives are the massive wages that put the club under financial pressure, and an unsettled squad of players who may not have the heart to both stay and play to their capabilities.

This is where Norwich 2014/15 come in.

We have hints of two of the three.

We bought a squad of reputable players that on paper should have done well but due to mismanagement and probably the players not giving enough, we found ourselves relegated. We also have an element that we perhaps didn''t invest enough in January to at least attempt to stop the goalscoring rot. This to me was inexcusable.

Where I believe we are well set is that we don''t fall into any of the disadvantages of the three categories in a great way. 1) we have some genuine quality there that should be "too good for this level" now. 2) We don''t seem to have too many "big wage hangovers" probably by definition only Bassong falls into that category and maybe RvW to an extent. To me though, they are both players that could still be useful to us and they are a far cry from having a £100k a week Michael Owen or a £60k Nicola Zigic on the books. 3) We have a pretty settled squad of players that is rich in experience of how to get out of this division. As the saying (sort of goes) "they''ve done it on a cold, wet night in stoke, but can they do it on a warm saturday afternoon in Rotherham?" The vast majority of our squad already have before proven that.

In conclusion, I can''t see many reasons to say "why not?" It''s not as if there are a plethora of teams "queueing up" to get promoted. Yes there are decent teams but certainly on the face of it out of the three, we are the best set to get straight back to the top flight.

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To add to that 1) we have a cracking set of youth players ready to blend in with the "too good for this level if they put their mind to it" and "seasoned championship operators". The right blend of this and we can''t fail to get promoted.

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Bit worried about the defence and midfield.

 

Well, the midfield is fine if nobody leaves.

 

The defence looks light. If Turner was out for a fair chunk of time could you see a promotion push being sustained with a central defence of Martin and Bennett? With maybe only Gafaiti as backup.

 

I know Martin wants to play in the centre but I can''t help but think we''d have been better served signing a good new CB and keeping Martin at RB.

 

 

 

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The factors leading to both relegation and promotion are far too numerous and complex to cover ehaustively. There are not one or two factors that override everything else. Finance, motivation, momentum, injuries, crowds, individual personnel throughout the club, personal circumstances, cumulative decisions of matchday officials, timing of matches, training ground incidents, articles in the press, transfer windows, disruptive agents/wantaway players, pitch conditions at certain times of the year, adaptability, playing other teams at the ''right'' time (or otherwise), fatigue, desire, serendipity, team spirit and hundreds (or even thousands) of other confounding factors all play smaller or greater role in determining any given team''s progression over a season.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]We conceded promotion when we opted for inexperience over the available Lennon. We shall finish in the bottom half of the table as a result.[/quote]I doubt we will finish in the bottom half although I too, would have preferred to have gone for Lennon.It''s impossible to make a reasoned prediction until we see how the first dozen games go but on paper we look well capable of being one of the top half dozen.

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Interesting, Highland is a pretty shrewd judge and also he sees the guys away from home, which I dont think you do Ricky.

I am an Adams man and will back him to do the job for us next season! top 6 for me.

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[quote user="iron_stan"]we wont be in the top 8

in fact we might struggle to get out of the bottom 5 for the first 8 weeks[/quote]

All the doom mongers are out tonight.

One thing''s for sure, if the majority of our supporters don''t believe we can go up, we won''t.

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And do we *know* that Lennon would have accepted the manager''s job in the Championship? I''ve seen no evidence of that.

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[quote user="iron_stan"]we wont be in the top 8

in fact we might struggle to get out of the bottom 5 for the first 8 weeks[/quote]

http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/barclayendchoir/TWTD.gif

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]We conceded promotion when we opted for inexperience over the available Lennon. We shall finish in the bottom half of the table as a result.[/quote]Never a truer word spoken , not only did we not appoint Lennon but we decided not to appoint a manager of any description .Can a radio co commentator win the Championship or even finish top 6 ? not a hope in hell .

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Although most are expecting promotion, I''ve yet to see us attempt to rebuild a weak and unbalanced squad. The mismanagement and years of decline under Smith and Jones have left the club unable to build on any relative bright periods to achieve sustained success. Expect the better players to leave and be replaced by a mixture of youth and battlers/journeymen like Lafferty and O''Neill.We will struggle to achieve the playoffs playing a generic direct game that is mislabelled as passing football, ''the Norwich Way'' or somesuch.

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[quote user="Cheap Cheap Canaries"][quote user="Highland Canary"]We conceded promotion when we opted for inexperience over the available Lennon. We shall finish in the bottom half of the table as a result.[/quote]Never a truer word spoken , not only did we not appoint Lennon but we decided not to appoint a manager of any description .Can a radio co commentator win the Championship or even finish top 6 ? not a hope in hell .[/quote]http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/barclayendchoir/TWTD.gif

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Sorry, I must have missed the news of RvW''s departure. And I doubt very much that Delia has any say in club affairs. If she tried to interfere DM would be off like a shot. Still, why let the truth get in the way of inbred prejudice.

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A good question that has certainly received some opinions that are miles apart as usual.

So, in direct answer to the questions:

Should we expect promotion back to the EPL? If the club does not aim for promotion then it is likely we will not achieve it, is my view. The team and all of us should now be of the mind that we WILL gain promotion THIS season. Whilst also understanding that it will not be easy and expect a few curved balls along the way.....particularly in those first two difficult months of adjustment. So.....YES we should expect promotion, anything less is failure this season.... and this I say despite NA not being my first choice to lead us to that promotion.....oh and Neil Lennon certainly wasnt either.

What is the key to gain promotion? Squad quality and depth, leadership, tactics, squad togetherness and having enough contingency fund in the bank come January, and using it for that final push. I am sure there are other factors too. Right now, even considering we could lose a couple of players, I certainly see the squad being strong enough, with the expectation that when we do lose a couple they are replaced. The other factors....we will have to wait and see, particularly the leadership and tactics.

Where did previous relegated teams from the EPL go wrong, when they have an advantage? So many reasons I am sure and a question that cannot be answered by a mere mortal like myself. What is clear though, is that a few of the previous relegated clubs have had so much financial baggage that the parachute payments have not been enough for them, and I am sure that''s not the case for Norwich City.

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This time last year many of us, I seem to recall, thought we had a great squad and would push on for a comfortable mid table place. We have pretty much the same squad, arguably stronger with some of the youth players nudging some time here and there in the first team. However last season was truly abysmal, it took us all by surprise. But freed of the shackles of mr Hughton and his two cronies who never convinced I am confident that we will see the squad start to fulfill what we thought they might be capable of last time. Adams is a gamble, but so is any new manager and much as I would have supported Lennon had he come here, he would have been arguably even more of a gamble than Adams.

 

We should never expect promtion but I think we''ll give it a jolly good crack and while there are some other good teams competing with us I see no reason why we cannot be right in the mix.

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One element which hasn''t been touched on yet, but I think is vital for a successful campaign is the speed at which the club comes over the psychological effect of relegation. Not only that, but of the ''loser'' mentality the players have had for a while now. Hopefully, pre-season will have done something for that. But the first win is vital. Teams that go down have, to use an old cliche, forgotten how to win. That needs to be addressed asap. Bringing in players who have had some success in the previous season is key to that. Something relegated sides often don''t pay close enough attention to. Fortunately Lafferty and Grabban have both had good seasons, scoring goals and winning games. Equally, Gary O''Neil played a part in QPRs promotion push. I hope that will be enough.

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A lot will depend on how the squad looks at the end of the transfer window. Grabban looks a decent prospect. Not sure about Lafferty - but perhaps our team needs a "big unit" to shake things up a bit for this season in the champs. We can''t expect promotion but we have to go all out to get it - as other have said it will likely get more difficult if we don''t go straight back up. I don''t share either the overly positive or negative view. I can see us being around the play-off places but perhaps not having enough for automatic (depending on ins and out). My worry is Adams. He is effectively still learning his trade. Time will tell and I hope he succeeds. Best to judge after 10 games or so. I think the vast majority of us saw where things were heading last year after 10 games. After accepting that they waited too long last time, I don''t think they will make the same mistake if a decision is needed this season. Personally I will be getting behind the manager and players and look forward to heading off to the away games that are around where I live.

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I also think it''s wrong to ''expect'' promotion because the competition will be fierce. To ''aim'' for it though is different, knowing how hard it''s going to be and being driven by that. Adams is no novice at 48. He knows the game inside out, as do Holt and Martin, and the pre-season has shown that attacking football is back and that we''re ready to go for it.

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Its impossible to know where we will finish or what our expectations should be right now.

 

Whilst I dont think we have a better squad this season than last, if nothing changes & the squad have a tough mental attitude for this ultra competetive league, we have the talent to push for an auto spot.   Even this squad is thin in quality at centre and right back,  while the strike force is currently much better on paper and unproven on the pitch.     The inclusion of Surman is a big boost to midfield,  top quality performer who is my best signing of the summer so far and will mean some of the overrated performers from last season dont get to start.

 

However its a month until the window closes and that will change plenty.   Lose RvW, Fer, Tettey, Olsson and Ruddy the quality of the spine of the team drops enormously. Its essential to a progressive manager that we lose no more than two of these.    We will not be able to replace with the same quality,  although the emergency loan window gives us more time to solve the problem of late player departures.     

 

Plenty of ups and downs to come.   A determined club making ambitious decisions with a cool head is needed for the next 4 weeks.   Stand firm, aim high and we will be rewarded -  as my now deleted signature said

 

_________________________________________________________________

Its the team that counts

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[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]

Its impossible to know where we will finish or what our expectations should be right now.

 

Whilst I dont think we have a better squad this season than last, if nothing changes & the squad have a tough mental attitude for this ultra competetive league, we have the talent to push for an auto spot.   Even this squad is thin in quality at centre and right back,  while the strike force is currently much better on paper and unproven on the pitch.     The inclusion of Surman is a big boost to midfield,  top quality performer who is my best signing of the summer so far and will mean some of the overrated performers from last season dont get to start.

 

However its a month until the window closes and that will change plenty.   Lose RvW, Fer, Tettey, Olsson and Ruddy the quality of the spine of the team drops enormously. Its essential to a progressive manager that we lose no more than two of these.    We will not be able to replace with the same quality,  although the emergency loan window gives us more time to solve the problem of late player departures.     

 

Plenty of ups and downs to come.   A determined club making ambitious decisions with a cool head is needed for the next 4 weeks.   Stand firm, aim high and we will be rewarded -  as my now deleted signature said

 

[/quote]Southampton have sold four players they weren''t keen on leaving, despite having stayed up, and may lose more. If we lose three in all (Snodgrass and and two others) that would be no more than par for the course (and I am not including RvW in that number - that the first thing Adams did was to sign two strkers suggests strongly he is more than happy to let him leave). Any more would be a worry, and any fewer very good business.If we assume Fer is off then ideally we would keep Tettey. If Olsson (a good player) goes we at least have a reasonable replacement in Garrido, and would only need to find a squad left-back. If we can keep Ruddy, and add a centre-back, then there will be a pretty decent spine,  of Ruddy, Turner and another, the best of what still is a reasonable midfield, and (depending on formation) a strikeforce picked from three players (Lafferty, Grabban and Hooper) who have all scored goals at the Championship level.

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