Jump to content
Note to existing users - password reset is required Read more... ×
Sign in to follow this  
CanaryOne

Adams price dropping like a stone

Recommended Posts

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]This is my reading.Lennon is the favoured choice of the board and the delay is in him making a break with Celtic and making up his mind.Malky probably unhappy with not being first choice has kept his options openAdams has been the backstop if all else fails which now seems quite possible so no surprise at the price coming in.If Malky annd Lennon go elsewhere it will probably be Adams and Wiz can claim he was right all along.[/quote]I don''t know about the specifics but the general point is right. We are the mercy of events, because we are not at the top of the managerial pecking order. We may well have had a first choice, but that doesn''t mean we were their first choice. At the moment there are at least three managerial vacancies - us, West Brom and Celtic - and three other clubs - Spurs, Southampton and Villa - where there might be.If I was an in-demand manager I wouldn''t jump at moving to the one club in that list down in the Championship if by waiting I might get a job in the Premier Leaguee, or at Celtic. It is clear Adams was not at the outset being seriously considered, in the sense there were plainly three or more candidates ahead of him. If we end up with Adams it will only be because the others turned us down.[/quote]It''s a funny betting market Purple. If Lennon has decide against us then he ought to be short odds for WBA but he isn''t. Hughton is still favourite there.Malky is big odds for Celtic and WBA so should be favourite here i(f Lennon has ruled us out) but isn''t. He is only 3rd Fav at 2-1.Adams price has come in dramatically and seems to be driven by something other than guesswork.[/quote]Ricardo, I don''t understand betting, and particularly football betting - is the price driven by inside knowledge, what fans think (ie guesswork!) or by the money placed, or by a combination? With these managers there are so many permutations it doens''t surprise me that there is a certain illogicality to the bets at any one time!If odds have shortened on Adams it may be (I very much hope...) just that now there are alternative options for all the other candidates, and there isn''t one for Adams.[/quote]
Football betting is a market so all the things you mention can influence price. Prices are influenced by how much money flows in. Take a look at Betfair which an open betting exchange to see how prices move.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So if Lennon was going to be appointed this evening or in the morning. Are we likely to hear about this unofficially or via the NCFC official website first?

Will we see markets closed first and solid news stories before we get a official news announcement?

I can''t remember how this normally plays out. Especially in the manager merry go round of today. I am hoping for an official announcement this evening!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]This is my reading.Lennon is the favoured choice of the board and the delay is in him making a break with Celtic and making up his mind.Malky probably unhappy with not being first choice has kept his options openAdams has been the backstop if all else fails which now seems quite possible so no surprise at the price coming in.If Malky annd Lennon go elsewhere it will probably be Adams and Wiz can claim he was right all along.[/quote]I don''t know about the specifics but the general point is right. We are the mercy of events, because we are not at the top of the managerial pecking order. We may well have had a first choice, but that doesn''t mean we were their first choice. At the moment there are at least three managerial vacancies - us, West Brom and Celtic - and three other clubs - Spurs, Southampton and Villa - where there might be.If I was an in-demand manager I wouldn''t jump at moving to the one club in that list down in the Championship if by waiting I might get a job in the Premier Leaguee, or at Celtic. It is clear Adams was not at the outset being seriously considered, in the sense there were plainly three or more candidates ahead of him. If we end up with Adams it will only be because the others turned us down.[/quote]It''s a funny betting market Purple. If Lennon has decide against us then he ought to be short odds for WBA but he isn''t. Hughton is still favourite there.Malky is big odds for Celtic and WBA so should be favourite here i(f Lennon has ruled us out) but isn''t. He is only 3rd Fav at 2-1.Adams price has come in dramatically and seems to be driven by something other than guesswork.[/quote]Ricardo, I don''t understand betting, and particularly football betting - is the price driven by inside knowledge, what fans think (ie guesswork!) or by the money placed, or by a combination? With these managers there are so many permutations it doens''t surprise me that there is a certain illogicality to the bets at any one time!If odds have shortened on Adams it may be (I very much hope...) just that now there are alternative options for all the other candidates, and there isn''t one for Adams.[/quote]The odds are driven by the money, Purple. Bookmakers odds reflect what the money thinks will happen. Having had some experience in bookmaking I can tell you that you usually price up with caution and await the initial bets to tell you where the money is going. On the track you have a good idea what is mug money and what is not because you become familiar with those that have a bit of inside knowledge. This is a bit more difficult on the internet exchanges due to the anonymity of that medium, but big moves in price are usually driven by something more than guesswork.My reading is that somebody may have got wind that Lennon and Malky might not be keen for whatever reason. This makes the backstop (ie Adams) more likely plus 25-1 is a big price for what essentially seems to be a three horse race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="The Young One"]I have quite a few quid at 18/1 and then again at 25/1 so Adams will be an excellent choice for my pockets.

[/quote]Good, but you should now consider a saver on both Lennon and Malky now that their odds have moved out. This will leave you in a win, win situation and you should at the very least have a free bet by saving your stake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Long drives home"]So if Lennon was going to be appointed this evening or in the morning. Are we likely to hear about this unofficially or via the NCFC official website first?

Will we see markets closed first and solid news stories before we get a official news announcement?

I can''t remember how this normally plays out. Especially in the manager merry go round of today. I am hoping for an official announcement this evening![/quote]
Usually betting is suspended before the official announcement because those with inside knowledge will start throwing money and all the punters follow. It''s difficult to keep it a secret. If the wife tell her friend who bets a few thousand then it snowballs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bets are mainly driven by bets placed, and the bookies ensuring they will make a profit.So if a load of large bets were now placed on say Sherwood to be manager his odds will fall from current 28/1 to lower say 10/1that in turn would push the others to have longer odds say 5/1 to 6/1 7/1 etc.Looking at the odds at the momentLennon 4/5Adams 6/4Malky 7/4The odds are terrible for betting, as it can''t be more than 1 and could easily be any of the 3, so gues who would win THE BOOKIESbetter odds are available with Zola at 12/1 who has already said Norwich would interest him, so I,ve now placed a small bet on Skybetso I,ve currently gotAdams 18/1 £50Adams 25/1 £30Malky   7/4  £10Zola 12/1     £20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ricardo stated"Good, but you should now consider a saver on both Lennon and Malky now that their odds have moved out. This will leave you in a win, win situation and you should at the very least have a free bet by saving your stake."

Ricardo, I get your point, thank you. thinking it over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You must be praying that Neil Adams is appointed with a nice £1700 to come your way! lol

I am hoping for Lennon from both a pocket and football point of view.

I believe that I will be correct and you will be £110 out of pocket! lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Long Drive Home.Yes you would be correct.I,ve already spent my money as though it has already gone in a fruit machine or similar.So any return would now be a bonus.A Holiday worth £1700 for £110 odd, was a gamble worth taking.

Would I now take £500 to settle my bet. ummmmmm yes I would. Pity I can''t.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="The Young One"]Long Drive Home.Yes you would be correct.I,ve already spent my money as though it has already gone in a fruit machine or similar.So any return would now be a bonus.A Holiday worth £1700 for £110 odd, was a gamble worth taking.

Would I now take £500 to settle my bet. ummmmmm yes I would. Pity I can''t.[/quote]

WOW! You are badly exposed if Lennon or Malky gets it.If you don''t fancy going in strong to cover your bet then the best option is to try and lay off some of the Adams money. I''m sure you could find takers at 5-1Betting is a game of percentages, better to win small than lose big..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There will be so many disappointed people if adams gets it. As hard a set games he had, 1 point from 5 games. And the way he set up that last game v arsenal, was like watching a Hughton team again.

Hes gone from 4th favourite 25/1 to favourite 13/8 in a matter of hours, so there must be alot of money going on him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]Adams is bloody favourite now! What a joke![/quote]

Why is it a joke ?It merely reflects what people are betting .... that''s all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Phillip J Fry"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"]Adams is bloody favourite now! What a joke![/quote]
You''re overreacting.
[/quote]No he''s not its unthinkable that we give the job to a Radio Norfolk co commentator with a few games of experience managing kids .Should be Board and Adams out chants from the first game we are a laughing stock of a club .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="CanaryOne"][quote user="Phillip J Fry"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"]Adams is bloody favourite now! What a joke![/quote]
You''re overreacting.
[/quote]No he''s not its unthinkable that we give the job to a Radio Norfolk co commentator with a few games of experience managing kids .Should be Board and Adams out chants from the first game we are a laughing stock of a club .[/quote]
Odds mean nothing. Until we get an announcement which officially confirms who the next manager is, I couldn''t give less of a s**t about made up numbers that are purposely designed to make the bookies money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unfortunately Mr Fry there are still those numpties who believe that bookmakers odds are related to the probability of an event happening rather than them simply adjusting the prices to try and ensure they make a profit ie take more than they pay outThose equations are ''the book''That is why they are called bookmakers, not guessmakers, probability predictors or such like

ps there must be another way to make money out of their stupidity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Young One, get your bet laid off at betfair to lock in a profit. Currently available at evens there, so lay off £500 to hedge your bets. You''ll still make a £1200 profit if Adams gets it, and £500 if he doesn''t!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="City1st"]Unfortunately Mr Fry there are still those numpties who believe that bookmakers odds are related to the probability of an event happening rather than them simply adjusting the prices to try and ensure they make a profit ie take more than they pay outThose equations are ''the book''That is why they are called bookmakers, not guessmakers, probability predictors or such like

ps there must be another way to make money out of their stupidity

[/quote]
But as bookies'' odds reflect the market and the market reflects current knowledge (both public and inside information) then the odds are as good an indication of probability as we have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
errr, nothey are a reflection of guesswork, stupidity and gullibilityno more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If it was going to be Adams, then he would have been appointed before Mondays radio interviews conducted by Delia and Co.

Delia poured water on this appointment IMO when she stated no one was available lady January.

Adams was!

It won''t be him, number two maybe, but not manager!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What with betting now suspended at a couple outlets, and clued up media people like Wyatt saying Adams has the job, it''s a shame Wiz didn''t lump on at 25-1 yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is it time to book my holiday yet ????????I was on here earlier this week suggesting poster have a dabble at 18/1I took 18/1 & 25/1Can I book my holiday yet ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×