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The Young One

Neil Adams Skybet 18-1

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Without prejudice to the argument, would someone like to explain to me how a bookmaker decides his opening odds?

For an example, the winner of the F1 championship, 1 month before the season starts?

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We''re talking about a popular football betting market here, not a day at the racetracks!

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and City1st if their was no random adjustments in odds their would be no such thing as "experts".

the whole system would just be run on a simple database with no human input whatsoever.

you also state bookmakers adjust odds so they never lose money, which is boll*cks.. they make losses all the time, just their winnings usually end up outweighing the losses.

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Mine was a serious question.

I have my own ideas as to why though, but wanted to hear what everyone else''s thoughts were?

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[quote user="Daz Sparks"]Mine was a serious question.

I have my own ideas as to why though, but wanted to hear what everyone else''s thoughts were?[/quote]Snippet from a very helpful article "The Art of Bookmaking" from Betfair which goes some way to explaining how they set opening odds and how they are then adjusted.

So how does a bookmaker set his original odds? We mentioned before

that most of the early bookmakers will have a number of experts in each

sport and they will come to a decision as to the opening prices.

However, it is important to note that the odds they set are not based on

the true probability of the teams winning, but rather what the general

betting public perceive the true probability to be.

This important difference is subtle but extremely important. In fact, it

is the reason why professional gamblers can make long-term profits out

of bookmakers. The goal for most bookmakers is to balance their books,

and in doing so ensure a guaranteed profit. Let''s just say, however,

that they thought that Nadal was an 80% chance to win versus Murray. A

probability of 80% is equivalent to odds of 1.25, but the bookmaker

would not want to be too obvious about what the bookmaker''s intentions

are, especially considering that all other bookmakers are around the

1.45 mark. Instead a bookmaker moves his prices slightly so that he

might get more bets on Murray than Nadal. He might offer 1.4 for Nadal,

which in turn would push Murray out to, say 2.75. In this case, if you

fancied Murray, then these odds of 2.75 are the best you can get.

However, if you fancied Nadal, then the current bookmaker doesn''t have

the best odds at 1.4.

Here we have a situation where a bookmaker is deliberately moving his

odds away from the norm in order to make the amount of money bet on each

team lopsided. So this particular bookmaker is not trying to balance

their books but rather is having a bet themselves with the bookmakers''

margin still on their side.

Of course, it is impossible to work out the actual true probability of a

team winning; if we could, then we would be amazingly rich! But one can

attempt to approximate it. Whenever we bet we are approximating

probabilities in our heads. Even if you don''t understand what

probabilities are, you are still making a judgement that the odds

offered are greater than that of which you believe and hence, you bet on

them.

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Had we been going with Adams, you''d have thought it fairly likely we''d have announced it by now - though that''s not to say he won''t be in the line-up in some capacity.

Lennon is odds on favourite but doesn''t seem that likely to me, there''d surely be more noise from Celtic''s end if it were in the offing.

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and City1st if their was no random adjustments in odds their would be no such thing as "experts".how on earth are they random if they are in direct response to information ? the whole system would just be run on a simple database with no human input whatsoevernot a database, but in response to bets laid, and they doyou also state bookmakers adjust odds so they never lose money, where I did I say that, i didn''t so stop making up stuff - try reading (and actually understanding) what I did saywhich is boll*cks.. they make losses all the time, just their winnings usually end up outweighing the losses.if you had half a brain you would realise that you have just confirmed what I said

the guff about Betfair is NOT relevant and is merely being chucked in to cause confusinon....... by someone who supposedly ''knows little about betting''the moot point has been about what determines movement of odds during a betting period - and that has not changed, it is an adjustment by the bookmakers to ''balance the book'' ie to make a profit whichever way the event ends

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So City1st you''re telling me more money has been placed on Di canio than Neil Adams?

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and I quote "the bookmaker adjusts the odds to ensure whatever eventuality (result) they make a profit"

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"the guff about Betfair is NOT relevant and is merely being chucked in to cause confusinon....... by someone who supposedly ''knows little about betting

I did know little about betting but took the time to find out about setting and adjusting odds and reproduced a piece from a major bookmakers site that made it a lot clearer to me and perhaps for some others. The part of the article I reproduced is very relevant to the OP and a subsequent follow up question. You really are hard work, why do you believe that you are an expert on everything when you clearly are not?

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[quote user="Molly Windley"]"the guff about Betfair is NOT relevant and is merely being chucked in to cause confusinon....... by someone who supposedly ''knows little about betting

I did know little about betting but took the time to find out about setting and adjusting odds and reproduced a piece from a major bookmakers site that made it a lot clearer to me and perhaps for some others. The part of the article I reproduced is very relevant to the OP and a subsequent follow up question. You really are hard work, why do you believe that you are an expert on everything when you clearly are not?

[/quote]Betfair is a NOT a Bookmakerthe clue is in the last word

ps why not post under one of your previous names rather than come on here under yet another alias getting yourself over excited and angry ?

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Well well, it would seem some people don''t really know what they are talking about.Money down the drain, I was toldnow where''s the travel agent 

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[quote user="The Young One"]Well well, it would seem some people don''t really know what they are talking about.Money down the drain, I was toldnow where''s the travel agent [/quote]Well done son, now make sure you don''t give it all back.Enjoy your winnings, that was a brave bet.[Y]

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[quote user="The Young One"]Seemed worth a punt.£30 matched bet when opening up a new accountso placed £25 on adams with £25 matched bet £50 @ 18/1 Total   £901 if he is namedalso placed an outside bet of Malky £5 plus £5 matched @7/4 Total £22.50 if he is namedSo will lose £30 if neither Adams or Malky are namedIf Malky is named £22.50If Adams is named £901So wouldn''t be to disappointed if  Adams is named.Odds on Lennon aren''t really worth the punt to be honest 5/6

Just couldn''t resist 18/1

[/quote]
Good luck to you if you did do it.

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Well done young one but we all hate floaters!! Lol seriously fair play mate!

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Sorry to gloat, I,m excited like at Xmas, just so surprised to be honest.Thought the odds were to good, as there was always a chance that the board''s first & 2nd choice may turn us down.Yep will use some of the money on a return to the premier league, why not good idea.

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[quote user="priceyrice"]What was the fake twitter account?

Lennon now favourite and Malky second followed by Zola.

Lennon has moved from 3rd favourite to 1st today.

Odds are determined by a complex algorithm taking into account many aspect including betting patterns and bookie knowledge.
I imagine with Lennon that big money has been put on to him today to move him down to 4-7 (bet £7 win £4), whereas two days ago if you bet £1 you would win £8 back[/quote]a complex algorithmand bookie knowledge

oh dearoh dearie me

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="The Young One"]Well well, it would seem some people don''t really know what they are talking about.Money down the drain, I was toldnow where''s the travel agent [/quote]Well done son, now make sure you don''t give it all back.Enjoy your winnings, that was a brave bet.[Y][/quote]Stand by for a full scale troll attack.........we don''t like lucky rich b*astards. [;)]

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