The Young One 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Seemed worth a punt.£30 matched bet when opening up a new accountso placed £25 on adams with £25 matched bet £50 @ 18/1 Total £901 if he is namedalso placed an outside bet of Malky £5 plus £5 matched @7/4 Total £22.50 if he is namedSo will lose £30 if neither Adams or Malky are namedIf Malky is named £22.50If Adams is named £901So wouldn''t be to disappointed if Adams is named.Odds on Lennon aren''t really worth the punt to be honest 5/6Just couldn''t resist 18/1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted May 16, 2014 A little surprising the odds on Adams are so long. Once bookies have set their initial odds, do they have people employed to check how likely something looks to be, or do they just rely on laying off the bets they get so all that Adams at 18/1 means is that they''ve had very few bets on him and loads on Lennon/Malky ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted May 16, 2014 So you''d lose money still if Malky is appointed.That matched money, doesn''t it have to go round several times before you can take it on outside odds bets? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AndyCanary 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Decent shout that.I guess it stipulates that NA has to be the out and out manager? Not head coach under a Director of football? or part of the coaching staff under a different manager? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skeps 0 Posted May 16, 2014 waste of money mate no chance of it being adams. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Young One 0 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="It''s Character Forming"]A little surprising the odds on Adams are so long. Once bookies have set their initial odds, do they have people employed to check how likely something looks to be, or do they just rely on laying off the bets they get so all that Adams at 18/1 means is that they''ve had very few bets on him and loads on Lennon/Malky ?I thought 18/1 was long odds hence the punt, basically the odds are set to create a market but on something like this a largish bet or several smallish bets will effect the odds, so most money is going on Malky & Lennon, but lets be honest even if we wanted either of them it doesn''t mean that they will accept the job, so Adams maybe 3rd choice but if Lennon or Malky don''t want the job it may then go to Adams.I just fancied the odds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
King Klose 0 Posted May 16, 2014 You''d be a mug to take the 5/6 on Skybet for Lennon when you can get 3.9 on him with Betfair. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 16, 2014 Once bookies have set their initial odds, do they have people employed to check how likely something looks to beeh !the odds are adjusted to balance the book - that''s why they are called bookmakersnot probabilityguessersie the odds at the moment reflect what folk have bet NOT what some spotty herbert in the back room thinks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STAN 29 Posted May 16, 2014 If they''re now offering 18/1 on Adams they must clearly know it''s not him, sorry but you''ve just chucked £30 down the drain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncfcstar 287 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="STAN"]If they''re now offering 18/1 on Adams they must clearly know it''s not him, sorry but you''ve just chucked £30 down the drain.[/quote]No, it''s because no one is betting on him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gingerpele 0 Posted May 16, 2014 I do love how people think the bookies work!Anyway its almost very certainly not Adams or he''d already be in the job. So you just have to hope the Mackay bet comes in and you''ve only wasted a bit of money... I''d have put £10 on Malky rather than £5 just to cover yourself. But yeah Adams isn''t going to pay out for you either way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Young One 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Perhaps I have chucked money away, but if I haven''t, I''ll be smiling for a few days afterwards Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Young One 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Plus Norwich may want Lennon or Malky 1st choice but if they decline. they then maygo with Adams.yes I agree if Adams was 1st choice he would have been given the job by now, so I believe they have other targets i.e Lennon or Malky or even Zolabut they may turn the job down, which is highly possible.18-1 as I said only beer money gambled, so I''ll watch the TV one night instead of going out, but if I win,,,,,,,, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted May 16, 2014 Makes sense that Adams can''t be first choice or why wait until now. So if he does get it, it will be a let down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
priceyrice 123 Posted May 16, 2014 Wow, Lennon has gone down, i got my money on a couple of days ago at 8-1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted May 16, 2014 Yes, the odds on Lennon have got a little shorter if anything since that story about the "fake twitter account" broke. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Bird 0 Posted May 16, 2014 I know nothing about betting. Does it mean at those odds, Adams is very unlikely to be manager? Who is the favourite would you think? (According to the bookies odds, of course!) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
priceyrice 123 Posted May 16, 2014 What was the fake twitter account?Lennon now favourite and Malky second followed by Zola.Lennon has moved from 3rd favourite to 1st today.Odds are determined by a complex algorithm taking into account many aspect including betting patterns and bookie knowledge. I imagine with Lennon that big money has been put on to him today to move him down to 4-7 (bet £7 win £4), whereas two days ago if you bet £1 you would win £8 back Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Masked Raccoon 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Not much movement on Fulham or West Broms next manager. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Bird 0 Posted May 16, 2014 Thank you, pricey rice :) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="Yellow Bird"]Thank you, pricey rice :)[/quote]"Odds are determined by a complex algorithm taking into account many aspect including betting patterns and bookie knowledge"totally imcorrectthey are determined by the amount of money betthe more money bet, the shorter the odds and absolutely nothing to do with ''bookie ''knowledge'' whatever that might bethe idea is pretty basic,the bookmaker adjusts the odds to ensure whatever eventuality (result) they make a profitthe idea that they might know something, or have a good guess it absolute nonsense...... they would be out of business in a matter of hourshowever what can often happen is the terminally dim imagine that the bookmakers ''must know something'' so they are cutting the odds, therefore said dimwits place bets, blissfully unaware that it is other dimwits doing the same that have caused the price to drop (remember Redknapp supposedly nailed on to join the paupers ?)ps if the bookies did actually ;''know something'' why the hell would they continue to take bets ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
priceyrice 123 Posted May 16, 2014 I''m afraid you''re wrong 1st. There are circumstances bookies have inside info and odds will reflect that, horse racing can be a prime example. Football matches specifically, bookies will calculate win percentages and then adjust odds based on betting patterns. To calculate wine percentages various factors are taken into account, including form, position, previous match history. I am of course simplifying the whole thing, while betting patterns play a huge part in determining odds, it is one factor in complicated algorithms. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Molly Windley 76 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="City1st"][quote user="Yellow Bird"]Thank you, pricey rice :)[/quote]"Odds are determined by a complex algorithm taking into account many aspect including betting patterns and bookie knowledge"totally imcorrectthey are determined by the amount of money betthe more money bet, the shorter the odds and absolutely nothing to do with ''bookie ''knowledge'' whatever that might bethe idea is pretty basic,the bookmaker adjusts the odds to ensure whatever eventuality (result) they make a profitthe idea that they might know something, or have a good guess it absolute nonsense...... they would be out of business in a matter of hourshowever what can often happen is the terminally dim imagine that the bookmakers ''must know something'' so they are cutting the odds, therefore said dimwits place bets, blissfully unaware that it is other dimwits doing the same that have caused the price to drop (remember Redknapp supposedly nailed on to join the paupers ?)ps if the bookies did actually ;''know something'' why the hell would they continue to take bets ?[/quote]I know little of betting but see you have a vast knowledge on the subject perhaps you can help?How do bookies, without any "knowledge" set the fixed price odds on football games when they do not know how much money will be bet on each possible outcome? They also need to set these so punters cannot bet on all possible outcomes on the same game with different bookmakers and still guarantee winning.How do bookies set initial prices, for example in a "next manager" book where the names and numbers of possible candidates is unknown? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STAN 29 Posted May 16, 2014 "No, it''s because no one is betting on him" Really? Adams is in the leading list of candidates.. if he''s suddenly drifted from a firm favourite to 18/1 their''s a reason. People who believe prices on popular football betting markets are just set on "bets made" are completely wrong.At 18/1 it will get people risking a few quid.Of course bookmakers make mistakes, but 99% of the time they will win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="STAN"]"No, it''s because no one is betting on him" Really? Adams is in the leading list of candidates.. if he''s suddenly drifted from a firm favourite to 18/1 their''s a reason. People who believe prices on popular football betting markets are just set on "bets made" are completely wrong.At 18/1 it will get people risking a few quid.Of course bookmakers make mistakes, but 99% of the time they will win.[/quote]eh ?are you completely barmy ?they win because they balance the book ie adjust the bets to ensure their liabilities are lower than what has ben palced in betsthe idea that they move the odds about due to guessing is absurd .... and false Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncfcstar 287 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="STAN"]"No, it''s because no one is betting on him" Really? Adams is in the leading list of candidates.. if he''s suddenly drifted from a firm favourite to 18/1 their''s a reason. People who believe prices on popular football betting markets are just set on "bets made" are completely wrong.At 18/1 it will get people risking a few quid.Of course bookmakers make mistakes, but 99% of the time they will win.[/quote]Yes really. The reason is they want people to put money on him again due to those tasty odds, how many others do you reckon they''ve managed to tempt with 18/1, quite a few I''d imagine. Enough, as City1st states, to balance the books I bet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STAN 29 Posted May 16, 2014 I''m sorry City1st, I forgot you know everything..As pricey rice said "it is one factor in complicated algorithms"Of course they adjust odds to cover there arses, but they also adjust odds to maximise profits..If you believe what you''re saying you''re extremely deluded, end off! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STAN 29 Posted May 16, 2014 Google "the art of bookmaking betting at bet fair" and have a read City1st... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 16, 2014 [quote user="STAN"]I''m sorry City1st, I forgot you know everything..As pricey rice said "it is one factor in complicated algorithms"Of course they adjust odds to cover there arses, but they also adjust odds to maximise profits..If you believe what you''re saying you''re extremely deluded, end off![/quote]what a pile of old sh itehave you never stood at a race track and watched the bookies and their runners, have you no idea what tic tac is and what it is used for .... complicated algorithms my ar seas to "they also adjust odds to maximise profits" that is meaningless nonsenseit is not about what I believe, it is about what is the truth of the matter Share this post Link to post Share on other sites