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Chances of bouncing back straight away ? Just under 1 in 4.

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Ok, so we aren''t down mathematically yet. But given that it''s likely we''re in the championship next season, I thought I''d see how often teams actually bounce back.

Below is a list of the relegated teams for each season since 2000, the number in brackets is the number of seasons it took for a bounce back to the premier league.

2000-01 Man City (1), Coventry City, Bradford City

2001-02 Ipswich, Derby (5), Leicester(1)

2002-03 West Ham (2), West Brom (1), Sunderland (2)

2003-04 Leicester (10), Leeds, Wolves (5)

2004-05 Crystal Palace(8), Norwich(6), Southampton(7)

2005-06 Birmingham (1), West Brom (2), Sunderland (1)

2006-07 Sheff Utd, Charlton Ath, Watford

2007-08 Reading (4), Birmingham (1), Derby

2008-09 Newcastle (1), Middlesborough, West Brom (1)

2009-10 Burnley(4), Hull(3), Portsmouth

2010-11 Birmingham, Blackpool, West Ham (1)

2011-12 Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves

2012-13 Wigan, Reading, QPR

What this shows is that it''s really important to try to get back first season. It becomes a lot harder in subsequent seasons.

9 out of 39 (23 %) of relegated clubs bounced back first time.

3 teams bounced back after 2 seasons

1 team after 3

2 teams after 4

2 teams after 5

1 team after 6

1 team after 7

1 team after 8

1 team after 10

18 out of the 39 relegated clubs (46%) haven''t bounced back.

yo yo clubs

Some clubs seem to bounce back more than others, probably because they have more folding stuff than the other teams in the championship.

West Brom 3 ( 1 and 2 season gaps )

West Ham 2 ( 1 and 2 season gaps )

Birmingham 2 ( 1 season gaps )

Leicester 2 ( 1 season, and a 10 season gap )

Sunderland 2 ( 1 and 2 season gaps )

Where can we expect to finish in the first season after relegation ?

At the very least, any fan of a relegated team wants to see them get to the play-offs in the following season. Is this likely ? Here are the first season after relegation positions for relegated teams since 2000.

2000-01 Man City 1, Coventry City 11, Bradford City 15

2001-02 Ipswich 7, Derby 18, Leicester 2

2002-03 West Ham 4, West Brom 2, Sunderland 3

2003-04 Leicester 15, Leeds 14, Wolves 9

2004-05 Crystal Palace 6, Norwich 9, Southampton 12

2005-06 Birmingham 2, West Brom 4, Sunderland 1

2006-07 Sheff Utd 9, Charlton Ath 11, Watford 6

2007-08 Reading 4, Birmingham 2, Derby 18

2008-09 Newcastle 1, Middlesborough 11, West Brom 2

2009-10 Burnley 8, Hull 11, Portsmouth 16

2010-11 Birmingham 4, Blackpool 5, West Ham 3

2011-12 Bolton 7, Blackburn 17, Wolves 23

2012-13 Wigan 5 , Reading 7, QPR 4

The average position = 7.92, or 8th if you round up - 1 place shy of the play-offs.

For me, this shows that it''s crucial to throw everything you can to get back into the premier league. The longer you leave it, the harder it seems to get.

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That''s interesting, thanks.

I guess what would also be interesting is to gauge ''other'' influences going on at those clubs at those times.

For example, Pompey had dire financial issues.

Blackburn had a war against Steve Keen and the Indian chicken owners.

And what about all those massively in debt?

For me, we would mirror WBA from a few years back. Ie, we maintain a solid championship base to our squad. Fulham would worry me, if I was a supporter that is.

Sadiq Kahn & co, plus Felix McGath.

Vincent Tan and Co, with Solskjaer as manager.

I''d rather have David McNally and our board, with Malky, going into battle in the championship thank you very much.

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I should say, nice one on the effort put into this, wasn''t belittling that. Just this season has fried my brain too much to worry about the stats, just want to get back to enjoying the game.

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Probably more like 1 in 2 given that we are on a sound financial footing, unlike Leeds, Portsmouth, Ipswich, etc.Just shows the importance of making good use of the parachute payments, rather than frittering away the money on over-paid, under-performing prima donnas.

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Glad that you see us as a west Brom type flecky, they are one of the bouncier teams. I think know it has a lot to do with continuity. We have a good prem home record, and a championship leading striker in the squad. Keep the spine of the team, the Leeds lads and the defence we''ve seen in the last few games, and I think we have a chance. Our board don''t put all eggs into one basket, but if there were ever a time to put quite a few in one basket, the summer would be it.

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Historical facts are all very well but the landscape changes. Next season there will be a lot of clubs in the championship with parachute payments. If you look at the last 2 seasons we''re talking about Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves, QPR, Reading and Wigan. If QPR or Wigan don''t win the play-offs then the only team that''s got out is Wolves through the trap door.

 

 

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Can only echo the sentiments of other posters here, as a club we find ourselves in a rare and fortunate state of health which can and should go a long way to bucking the data the OP has taken the time to set out.

With right manager in charge we will stand a very good chance of being right at the sharp end of the Chump next season but please and pretty please I''m worried as never before that out board commits yet another blunder.

All good food for thought though.

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Yes, very true BG.

We will have an upper hand next season. Our immediate rivals Cardiff and Fulham will not be in as good a position as us, largely due to foreign owners and foreign managers not familiar with the Champ.

Ok, we haven''t appointed our manager for next season, but I''m assuming he will be one who has experience with the Champ. Believe that should be Malky. Lennon is a risk we cannot afford next season.

We get one shot to get this right next season. Balls it up with poor signings and we will be back amongst the rabble for a few years.

Malky knows the division. We cannot afford basics mistakes next season if we want to bounce back at the first time of asking.

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With you on this one but truth be told I was not really to keen on the idea of Malky until it looked like we were heading back to the Chump.

He knows the legue, has done well in it before and is one of us, add to that the nucleus of a very good Chumpionship squad, the points raised previously about our overall state of health and we stand a very good chance of bouncing back.

But please God, I shudder at the thought of the boards next Manaerial Conclave, lets just hope beyond hope they don''t find the Clown Shoes and spinning bow tie once more.

They couldn''t could they?

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As I remember it, the last time we came down from the premiership we were given a great opportunity to get off to a flyer in that Coventry changed their home fixture due to their new ground not being ready, thus we started  our  fixtures with 3 home matches, and sure enough we blew it. Probably believing that we would bounce back up. BEWARE ! 

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You''re right Swindon. We had the 3Cs at home first 3 games. Coventry, Crewe and Crystal Palace. Drew all 3 games 1-1. Set the tone for the season. We still had players of the calibre of Ashton, Huckerby, McKenzie, Green, Safri...

 

It''s not easy!

 

 

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There was though the enduring spectre of the 6-0 at Fulham which somehow set the tone for a long long time.

Perhaps I''m easily pleased but after today and at least showing a good degree of fight and determination we could and I really am repeating myself here, do very well next term.

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That''s definitely a positive that I can agree with. I felt today that if we are to be relegated a good result today and next week could make the world of difference. But the point today could still be priceless. It could keep us up, unlikely I know, but it could bring us cash if it''s decided Sunderland should have been docked a point at a later date.

 

I''m glad our club is fighting on all fronts just like our supporters getting right behind the team today at the game. Not seeing the white flag being raised has meant the world to me.

 

 

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we will be armed with bigger parachute payments than any relegated team ever has before.....and it should make us a fairly formidable financial force in the Championship...moreso conidering we weren''t in financial trouble anyway...(finances aren''t the cause of this relegation....just incompetent management)....I still also mantain that this set of players arent one of the worst 3 in this leauge (again ,down to bad management).   "if" we can keep the nucleus of the players , who want to be here, it will be a good platform, ally this with some astute signings with the £60m parachute payments comimg our way (and I dont mean Andy Hughes,Matthieu louis Jean and Peter Thorne like last time) and we should be up there.

QPR and Wigan have made the playoffs and Reading should have done too, we should be doing at least that. I''d rather be in our situation too than Cardiff (nutcase chairman) or Fulham (ageing squad, mercenary foreigners).

Install Malky as manager as week tomorrow, re-instate Adams in his youth role to accelerate the link between our youngsters and the first team and lets get on with the business of winning the Championship next season

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Indeed it was, a stressful afternoon in West London but for the first time in a long time an away game to take some heart and pride from.

2005 and the manner of the defeat plays right into the statics in the OP''s contribution, I remember that first home game against Coventry and it was about as much fun as a day trip to the morgue.

At least the players, many of of whose will be here next season, seemed to give a damn today, commitment and effort aplenty.

Wit the ascent of the Academy boys into the frame there''s another important factor to consider in bucking the trend, I''m sure we will see far more of one or two of them than we would have in the Prem.

I know we aren''t down yet and I''m sure Bowkett will be doing his best Mr Bridger impersonation with the FA this week, rules are rules after all and does all have a bit of a whiff about it.

Not done for just yet.

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BG and Nutty, both agree completely with what you say. Losing 6-0 on the final day in 2005 and finishing this season on a ''high'' could prove the world of difference going into next season.

Also, clutching at straws here, but finishing 18th instead of 20th still gives us an extra £1.6m, which in the Champ is not to be sniffed at.

Even if we go down, would be good to at least take it to the final day, even though it will be an extra few days of heartache!

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I accept that over the last decade not many teams have bounced back quickly. If we keep many of our players and add a few good championship players too we will have an excellent chance. I suspect we will be one of the favorites, QPR and Wigan will also be highly tipped if they do not go up this season via the play offs

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Nutty

"I''m glad our club is fighting on all fronts just like our supporters getting right behind the team today at the game. Not seeing the white flag being raised has meant the world to me."

Same here, so proud of the players,the fans and the manager yesterday.

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With Mackay at the helm, our rosy financial situation, our superb batch of young players I feel that, if we can hold on to as many of the current players as is possible, we have as good a chance and better of returning post haste as any other club in the last ten years.  

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Good to see so many positive sentiments on here. Yesterdays draw felt a lot more honest than than the 04/05, certainly.

Just hope that the lads you would want to stick with us, will do so over the summer. We''ll need grafters in the championship, and that''s what Neeyul is identifying in his team selections.

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I''m not as positive as many on this thread.

We will be up against clubs of equal / bigger size (Bolton, Rovers, Forest, Leeds, Watford, Boro, Wigan, QPR/Derby/Reading) some of which have been building squads and momentum for years and are used to winning games and scoring goals and know how to battle in this division. Our recent Premiership status will also fire up opposition crowds and players desperate to prove themselves and pull us down a peg or two.

Money isn''t everything in this league you need a totally united squad, players passionate about playing twice a week often in hostile conditions, a very good manager with a clear game plan which everyone buys into and a dash of luck.

If I had to put money on it I think we will improve as the season progresses after a sluggish start and finish 9th/10th.

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Nice analysis. The fact we have plenty of information to show that none of those teams are the same case does alther things, but it''s still interesting to see.

People mention the pompey thing and others, but on the flipside, there''s the likes of Newcastle and West Ham who both had ridiculous teams in the championship and couldn''t fail to get back up.

I hope we are quite well prepared for the Championship given our board never really got carried away with out premier league money.

I don''t see that we have any overpaid prima donnas in our ranks that we can''t even give away and i''m even willing to keep RVW at least a season as I think if we can get him confident in the right system, he will destroy that league.

One of my players I would be having right at the top of my list of players to buy would be Shola Ameobi. I think he''d be great at that level and perfect foil for people like RVW and Hooper. He is on a free in summer as well.

I do think that while we are well set for an instant return, if that doesn''t happen in the first couple of seasons, I can see us drift off into midtable obscurity with the Boltons and Birminghams of the world simply because our infastructure doesn''t stand out particularly well.

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I think the worrying thing about the stats is that in the last three seasons only one team has come straight back up again. This goes to show that the championship is a very tough league.

It''s not going to be easy for us which is why we need to appoint the right manager ASAP to begin preparation in time for August.

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"the likes of Newcastle and West Ham who both had ridiculous teams in the championship and couldn''t fail to get back up. "

Continuity is as important as players that are too good for the league in the championship I think. If we can keep hold of the majority of the team, and keep them motivated after relegation, we have a good chance.

If I recall correctly there is the not so small matter of the no. 10 purchase that never was, so although we would only have the parachute payments, we should be able to open the purse strings if neccesary.

The trick I suspect is, how do you convince key players in the squad to stay, for me this is Ruddy, Redmond, Snodgrass, Martin & Johnson for their work-rate, given that they could well be offered places at Premiership clubs over the summer ?

Some of the players identified as less bothered about the club by Adams, i.e. those who have not been picked recently, will no doubt leave in short order. But if we can keep the players who care, and add to them with some quality signings, we''ll be in decent order for August.

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