Are their genuinely happy Norwich fans?

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

But isn''t it inevitable that, any time you are relegated, you look back at what could have been done differently ?

 

I remember the last 3 times we were relegated.  In ''95 Deehan resigned very late in the season and Megson was made manager as a stop-gap but couldn''t stop us getting relegated.  At the time I think most of us felt the fundamental problems were on the pitch, in selling Sutton and then Gunn getting injured.  But replacing Walker with Deehan and then Deehan with Megson were both weak managerial appointments.

 

In 2005 we persevered with Worthy despite spending the season mostly in the drop zone (as far as I remember).

 

Then in 2010, things were going poorly under Roeder but we were above the drop zone when he was sacked; under Gunn things got marginally worse and there was a feeling of inevitability when we finally went down.

 

So that''s two times when we''ve made late-season managerial changes which haven''t helped (or have even made things worse).  And when I hear the names suggested on here for replacing Hughton I can still understand why the Board haven''t changed him.  But of course in 2005 when we stuck with Worthy, that was probably the wrong choice with hindsight (although going into a Prem season with a weak CB pairing and a lack of striking options probably didn''t help much either).

 

If we do go down, it will be easy to say we should have changed him (for someone (who?) better !) back in December.  It is easy to be wise with hindsight.

 

But as things stand I still think we are well placed to survive.  I''d put our risk of relegation at about 15% at the moment - nothing scientific but just my view of the level of risk.  Which IMO makes it more risky to make a change than to stick with the current manager.

[Feedthewolf 4,844]

Personally I''d put our risk a lot higher than that, and the bookies'' odds generally aren''t too far wrong. The fact that Cardiff, Fulham and West Brom are all looking in real trouble is the thing that gives me the most hope; but with the table being so tight, and the last four games that we have, all it takes is for one of those teams to go on a charge and we could end up being bottom three before the last four games, and that would be as good as curtains. Given the pattern of our season, you''d hope we could win three games out of the next six, but any less than that and it''s going to be seriously fraught. Fail to beat Stoke on Saturday and those margins of error will narrow further...

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

As before ICF, you make some very fair observations. But, like Wolfie, I''d also put our relegation chances at a lot more than 15% . I''d say nearer 30% . Even more if we do not beat Stoke.As I said in another thread ,I do believe we shall need pts from the final four games. Our recent shows v Spurs and Citeh have given me some faint hope that we might just get some. This time last month I''d written them off totally. But I''d still say it''s not all that likely we''d get more than 2.