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Tetteys Jig

3 to 1 on Betfair for relegation

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For what seems such a 50/50 thing to me, perhaps as fans we''re that bit too scared of relegation we think there is more of a chance of it happening.

I don''t want to bet against my own team, but a hundred on that with 400 return could buy me a nice long boozy weekend somewhere sunny to drown my sorrows and if we stayed up, i''d be reasonably happy to part with the hundred anyway. Very tempting but I don''t think I could live with myself for doing it!

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Another thing, Swansea have a game in hand, yes, but they are level on points with us and are 16 to 1! Are they that much better than us?

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Do you think that odds are set fairly, or set in a way to make the bookies money?

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So are Swansea despite being level on points with us really that unlikely to go down? They have Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton left out of the "big teams", a game against their bogey team (us), Newcastle and Southampton, who are a cut above and Villa who can really kill teams on their day. I''d argue their only "easy" game left is West Brom at home.

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]So are Swansea despite being level on points with us really that unlikely to go down? They have Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton left out of the "big teams", a game against their bogey team (us), Newcastle and Southampton, who are a cut above and Villa who can really kill teams on their day. I''d argue their only "easy" game left is West Brom at home.[/quote]

 

Keep in mind Mr Jimmy we can''t even beat fellow relegation rivals at home![:''(]

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Well they''re job is just to take the bets and set the odds accordingly. Albeit they have to start somewhere but i would expect we started not too far from that level at the start of the season. Since then i imagine they''ve only taken more money on us going down given how we have performed. Pesonally however, i will hold out for WBA being the ones to go with Fulham and Cardiff, with Sunderland as an insurance policy! Interesting to know what odds are for those two?

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I suppose it more comes down to whether you can see us achieving at least 3 more wins this season. If you can''t, stick a bet on. If you can, don''t.

I think 38 points will be enough. I won''t be betting against us, but I also can''t see us achieving three more wins this season.

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]For what seems such a 50/50 thing to me, perhaps as fans we''re that bit too scared of relegation we think there is more of a chance of it happening.

I don''t want to bet against my own team, but a hundred on that with 400 return could buy me a nice long boozy weekend somewhere sunny to drown my sorrows and if we stayed up, i''d be reasonably happy to part with the hundred anyway. Very tempting but I don''t think I could live with myself for doing it![/quote]

They never get it right anyway, all the odds put on during a match never comes off, just think how much they make when Mugs go to the bookies

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Jimmy - since you''re quoting the Betfair odds I guess you''re familiar with how Betfair works.

To turn the question on it''s head - which of the teams who are down the bottom would you be happy to LAY for relegation - and why?

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As I have just written in my rivals home games thread, it''s really hard to see any of them getting near 40 points to be honest but then there''s always one or two teams that seem to defy the odds. I do think we''ll stay up if i''m pushed but I think 3-1 is generous!

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http://www.bsports.com/projectedtablesepl is worth a look.

 

This site is interesting for giving an impartial view on each team''s relegation risk - no idea how they have arrived at their numbers though but it looks like they are driven by stats rather than the usual pundit sticking a finger in the air.

 

It shows 6 teams in the relegation mix but Fulham almost dead already at 86% likely to go down, and Cardiff still favourites to join them at 68%.

 

There are then four teams fighting to escape the last spot, of which Palace (44%) and Sunderland (33%) are more likely to go down and WBA and us both on 26%.  So that would tie in with Betfair offering 3-1, if our "true" risk is about 4-1, that''s how bookies make their money.

 

Is our true risk of going down now about 25% ?  IMO probably that''s about right.  It has got worse since we beat Spurs when I thought it was around 10-15%.  Having lost to Villa and only got a point at home against Stoke, we are in a worse position than we looked to be before those games - I''d have hoped we would have come out of them with 3 or 4 points not 1, which would have moved us up to 31-32 points (and down to a risk level of 5% or less).

 

At the same time it is worth remembering (a) 25% risk means 75% chance of staying up and (b) there are 5 teams more likely to get relegated than us.

 

It is still going to be a very uncomfortable last 9 games.  But that''s what football is all about.

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Jimmy your header was a bit confusing as I read it as 3-1 on whereas we are 7-2 against. 6th favourites to go down!

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