Last 4 games realism

[Since 1980 27]

Did we really expect to get any points against Spurs? NoVilla away? No. Lambert always beats his old sides. We know that one.Stoke? Yes, 3.Southampton? Never going to win that one, maybe just 1 point.So in the last 4 games we''ve gained 4 points. That is all we realistically could expect. The Spurs result raised many people''s expectaions/hopes of what we could do. Many here don''t live in the real world. 4 from the last four is just about right.

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

Been sayin for a while now, that if we average a point a game , we''ll probably stay up. Would i like us to do better? yes. Am i a bit underwhelmed by this season? yes. Will i carry on supporting the Club ? Yes.

[ZLF 271]

[quote user="wcorkcanary"]Been sayin for a while now, that if we average a point a game , we''ll probably stay up. Would i like us to do better? yes. Am i a bit underwhelmed by this season? yes. Will i carry on supporting the Club ? Yes.[/quote]

 

[Y]

[Nicko 0]

The last 4 games aren''t a forgone conclusion.

If the title race isn''t over these teams will see us as a banana skin rather than a push over.

IMHO the opponents really don''t matter. Everyone plays each other twice so it isn''t an excuse that washes with me.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

The key is the next two at home, win them and we''re safe as far as i''m concerned.

[MancCanary 0]

Whatever happens, it''s bound to be the most nail-biting squeeky bum time final day of the season we''ve experienced for a few years now. I''m half-dreading it, half looking forward to it!

[crabbycanary 2]

That''s why we love football and NCFC, isn''t it Manc?

Better that way than some supporters who only want to celebrate at the end of the season once safety has been achieved( still don''t get that at all), or who are endlessly, glass half empty merchants.

The week to week scenarios are a big part of our footballing ''lives'' as supporters, and what generate debate on a World wide scale.

Fantastic, bring it on.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I''m hoping the final day of the season isn''t "nail biting" to be honest. Win our next two at home and we''ll be safe.

[Warren Hill 0]

We''re not the only team with some horrible looking fixtures, and we''ve pulled some unlikely points out of the bag at home and dropped some that we shouldn''t have. If we could nick an away win somewhere...now that would be a welcome bonus, despite being pretty poor on the road we have managed it twice previously....Swansea would be a handy place to get a third...

 

However, we''ve been averaging pretty much a point a game for most of the season, as somebody else said, if we maintain that I think that would be sufficient.

 

 

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="Warren Hill"]

We''re not the only team with some horrible looking fixtures, and we''ve pulled some unlikely points out of the bag at home and dropped some that we shouldn''t have. If we could nick an away win somewhere...now that would be a welcome bonus, despite being pretty poor on the road we have managed it twice previously....Swansea would be a handy place to get a third...

 

However, we''ve been averaging pretty much a point a game for most of the season, as somebody else said, if we maintain that I think that would be sufficient.

 

 

[/quote]

 

Not looking to pick a fight here Warren, genuinely curious, but where do you relaistcally expect us to pick up the further 9 points to take us to 38 from?

 

 

Sunderland (H)

Swansea (A)

West Brom (H)

Fulham (A)

Liverpool (H)

Man Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Arsenal (H)

 

 

Fail to beat both of Sunderland and West Brom and we''ve had it in my opinion, even that would still leave us needing a few points from the others.

 

[YellowNets1901 0]

Without wishing to turn this into a Hughton Out thread. IF we get enough points to stay up, I see little point in Hughton being here next season and stingily doubt he will be.

Imagine we lose our first two games with him in charge next season. He''s under pressure again and it''ll keep going on and on like that until he''s finally relieved of his duties here. He''s a Championship manager, in my opinion. Punching way above his weight.

My predictions re points from remaining games:

Sunderland (H) - 3

Swansea (A) - 0

West Brom (H) - 1

Fulham (A) - 0

Liverpool (H) - 0

Man Utd (A) - 0

Chelsea (A) - 0

Arsenal (H) - 0

Finishing on 33 points. Likely relegation.

[YellowNets1901 0]

*strongly

[Warren Hill 0]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="Warren Hill"]

We''re not the only team with some horrible looking fixtures, and we''ve pulled some unlikely points out of the bag at home and dropped some that we shouldn''t have. If we could nick an away win somewhere...now that would be a welcome bonus, despite being pretty poor on the road we have managed it twice previously....Swansea would be a handy place to get a third...

 

However, we''ve been averaging pretty much a point a game for most of the season, as somebody else said, if we maintain that I think that would be sufficient.

 

 

[/quote]

 

Not looking to pick a fight here Warren, genuinely curious, but where do you relaistcally expect us to pick up the further 9 points to take us to 38 from?

 

 

Sunderland (H)

Swansea (A)

West Brom (H)

Fulham (A)

Liverpool (H)

Man Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Arsenal (H)

 

 

Fail to beat both of Sunderland and West Brom and we''ve had it in my opinion, even that would still leave us needing a few points from the others.

 

[/quote]

 

I''ve no idea.

 

I wouldn''t have predicted 4 points from Spurs and Man City at home but thoroughly expected us to beat Cardiff.

 

I mean we could win our next 4.....if you ignore the fact that we''ve only won twice on the road all season and haven''t won back to back games either....but WDWD is 8 points and would be enough, then a point from the last 4 somewhere?

 

NURSE!!!!! I need my pills....

 

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="YellowNets1901"]Without wishing to turn this into a Hughton Out thread. IF we get enough points to stay up, I see little point in Hughton being here next season and stingily doubt he will be. Imagine we lose our first two games with him in charge next season. He''s under pressure again and it''ll keep going on and on like that until he''s finally relieved of his duties here. He''s a Championship manager, in my opinion. Punching way above his weight. My predictions re points from remaining games: Sunderland (H) - 3 Swansea (A) - 0 West Brom (H) - 1 Fulham (A) - 0 Liverpool (H) - 0 Man Utd (A) - 0 Chelsea (A) - 0 Arsenal (H) - 0 Finishing on 33 points. Likely relegation.[/quote]

 

I don''t think anyone would be surprised if Hughton goes in the summer even if we stay up. 

 

For the final 8 games, if we only get 4 points I would agree we''ll probably get relegated.  But "if" is the key question.  So far we''ve managed a point per game on average, if we can maintain that average we''ll have 37 points and very likely be safe. And my guess is that''s about where we will end up.

 

Saturday is certainly crucial because 3 points will push us up the table and give an injection of optimism in the squad.  Swansea and WBA are both in poor form so we could win or draw both of those games.  And it''s certainly pessimistic to assume we''ll get nothing from the final 5 games. 

 

This is the business end of the season, no doubt about it.  Will we slump into the drop zone as YN1901 expects, or will we continue to flirt with it but do just enough to scrape to safety ?  My guess is the latter and actually I think we''ll be safe going into the final game, but the risk of relegation is still significant IMO and Saturday is the most important game of the season so far.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="Warren Hill"]

We''re not the only team with some horrible looking fixtures, and we''ve pulled some unlikely points out of the bag at home and dropped some that we shouldn''t have. If we could nick an away win somewhere...now that would be a welcome bonus, despite being pretty poor on the road we have managed it twice previously....Swansea would be a handy place to get a third...

 

However, we''ve been averaging pretty much a point a game for most of the season, as somebody else said, if we maintain that I think that would be sufficient.

 

 

[/quote]

 

Not looking to pick a fight here Warren, genuinely curious, but where do you relaistcally expect us to pick up the further 9 points to take us to 38 from?

 

 

Sunderland (H)

Swansea (A)

West Brom (H)

Fulham (A)

Liverpool (H)

Man Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Arsenal (H)

 

 

Fail to beat both of Sunderland and West Brom and we''ve had it in my opinion, even that would still leave us needing a few points from the others.

 

[/quote]

 

Brownie! I''ve missed ya[;)]

 

Do you know how hard it is to predict 9 results? To get them all correct the odds would be many thousands to one! Much easier to predict how many points we''d finish on. If you predicted 38-40 points the odds would be a tiny fration of those to predict where the points came from.

 

Anyway, Warren played ball so now it''s your turn[:P]

 

(My optomistic shout can be found here http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3/3087040/ShowPost.aspx#3087040 )

 

 

[Chip20 69]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"]Not looking to pick a fight here Warren, genuinely curious, but where do you relaistcally expect us to pick up the further 9 points to take us to 38 from?

 Sunderland (H)

Swansea (A)

West Brom (H)

Fulham (A)

Liverpool (H)

Man Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Arsenal (H)

Fail to beat both of Sunderland and West Brom and we''ve had it in my opinion, even that would still leave us needing a few points from the others.

 [/quote]

In all your years of following NCFC, Brownstone, have you not noticed that we don''t pick up all of our points exclusively from games we "realistically" expected to win beforehand? Have we not won the occasional game here and there that perhaps, before kickoff, you felt we would probably most likely lose or, at best, draw? No? Not once? Ever?

Oh!

I''m not saying it will happen here. But it does sometimes; right?

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="Warren Hill"]

We''re not the only team with some horrible looking fixtures, and we''ve pulled some unlikely points out of the bag at home and dropped some that we shouldn''t have. If we could nick an away win somewhere...now that would be a welcome bonus, despite being pretty poor on the road we have managed it twice previously....Swansea would be a handy place to get a third...

 

However, we''ve been averaging pretty much a point a game for most of the season, as somebody else said, if we maintain that I think that would be sufficient.

 

 

[/quote]

 

Not looking to pick a fight here Warren, genuinely curious, but where do you relaistcally expect us to pick up the further 9 points to take us to 38 from?

 

 

Sunderland (H)

Swansea (A)

West Brom (H)

Fulham (A)

Liverpool (H)

Man Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Arsenal (H)

 

 

Fail to beat both of Sunderland and West Brom and we''ve had it in my opinion, even that would still leave us needing a few points from the others.

 

[/quote]

 

Brownie! I''ve missed ya[;)]

 

Do you know how hard it is to predict 9 results? To get them all correct the odds would be many thousands to one! Much easier to predict how many points we''d finish on. If you predicted 38-40 points the odds would be a tiny fration of those to predict where the points came from.

 

Anyway, Warren played ball so now it''s your turn[:P]

 

(My optomistic shout can be found here http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3/3087040/ShowPost.aspx#3087040 )

 

 

[/quote]

 

It''s only 8 games Nutty [:P]

 

I''m not a betting man, but if I had to give a prediction now I''d say we''d get 4 points from Sunderland & WBA, and a point away at both Fulham and a misfiring United. That''s give us a total of 35 points, no idea whether that will be enough, my gut says probably not but it will be extremely close.

 

If we are going to stand any chance of pulling clear of the drop zone then a confidence boosting win against Sunderland is vital in my opinion.

 

[the bristol nest 0]

The last four games are undoubtedly tricky although Manu have lost their lustre which puts them on a par with our other away games imo.

You have to hope that we can gain points at home whomever comes to CR.

We have to separate the CH issue from our run in if that is possible. As long as the players believe in our cause then we have a chance.

If they don''t then that is another issue.

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="Chip20"]

In all your years of following NCFC, Brownstone, have you not noticed that we don''t pick up all of our points exclusively from games we "realistically" expected to win beforehand? Have we not won the occasional game here and there that perhaps, before kickoff, you felt we would probably most likely lose or, at best, draw? No? Not once? Ever?

Oh!

I''m not saying it will happen here. But it does sometimes; right?

[/quote]

 

Of course it has, I just don''t feel that given our current form and confidence levels and what is a stake for Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal an upset is likely. We can''t afford to go into these fixtures still needing points.