Sunderland Predictions

[The Great Mass Debater 1,202]

Studying the table, today really is a ''must not lose'' game. Looking at the remaining fixtures, it feels like a ''must win'' game, as this represents one of a few realistic opportunities for 3 points. But, I think avoiding defeat is more important. Sunderland have 3 games in hand on us, and both West Brom and Palace have a game in hand on us too. Lose today and we will be one point above the relegation zone, possibly with only one team below us (Sunderland) if other results go against us, with them still having three games in hand over us and having few remaining opportunities to realistically pick up points.

Looking at records, think a point against Sunderland is actually a good result. They have a pretty good away record actually, when compared to other relegation rivals (W3 D4 L6). Our home record is W5 D6 L4. Interestingly Sunderlands home and away GD is exactly the same - Scored 13, Conceded 21. So although theyve scored almost the smae amount of goals as Everton away, they are coming up against one of the meanest home defences in the division - only Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City and Everton have conceded fewer at home than us. Unfortunately we are equal lowest scorers at home on 13 goals with Palace and Sunderland.

All of this suggests draw to me, and if that happens I think we should be relatively satisfied with that. A win would be great, but I think not losing is more important. Lose, and I think we''re screwed

[the bristol nest 0]

All good points OP but I will struggle to agree if its a draw at full time. We need the win.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

In the context of the table i cannot think of a more important game in many a year.A loss would be an unmitigated disaster which would probably have immediate consequences for the management team. A win and we can start to breath a bit easier, a draw and whilst not a total disaster would still leave us needing another 5 or 6 points from somewhere and i am not sure where that somewhere is. It will be another of those very tight edgy affairs with Sunderland taking the lead and Norwich pulling level for an anxious draw that would not really help either side

[Salopian 1]

A win would be great, and encourage us for the rest of the season, although Hughton teams seem to swing fairly wildly at times.

A draw, I suggest, would satisfy neither team. It would mean that we would have maintained our points advantage against Sunderland, but we would have missed a good opportunity of a winnable home game.It would also mean greater threat if teams around us continue to pick up points.

A defeat would be the end - for team and for Hughton. The last flickering hope would have been extinguished.

I find it difficult to predict what the outcome will be today. Even with the players we have missing, I hope that we can hold them off - they are almost as toothless in front of goal as we are. On the other hand I can''t see us sneaking more than one goal.

I hate to say it, but I suspect that a draw will be the outcome, but given the importance of the match I think that it could be a foul-littered game with skill not much in evidence.

[iron_stan 0]

2-1 sunderland winreckon they will want it more , it will be the usual good start for 20 mins as usual at home and then run out of steamanything less than a win here and its relegation

[Wiz 0]

2-0 City win.

[sgncfc 1,330]

This is the equivalent of the Villa home game last year, which we lost. Think we will lose again, 1-0.

I just don''t think we have the appetite for it under this management team.

[Balloo 0]

I think it`s a `must win` game for us and a `must not lose` game for Sunderland, with their games in hand they will be happy with a point today I feel.I`m going for a 1-0 City win, RVW off his a**e in the 87th minute Dean Coney style!

[wooster 134]

I think the games in hand can be overstated.  The outstanding fixtures the teams around us have

are:

West Ham           Hull

(h)

Hull                        West

Ham (a)

Swansea              Arsenal

(a)

WBA                      Sunderland

(a)

Sunderland         Liverpool

(a), Man City (a), WBA (h)

Palace                   Everton

(a)

None of those are obvious 3-pointers though West Ham & Sunderland

wins damage Hull & WBA respectively.

 

Taking another angle, in the 38 games/season era, on average

the three relegated teams have totalled 95 points (there’s a wide spread around

that admittedly) – the bottom three currently total 74 points.  It’s a big if, but were this to be an average

year and the remaining points spread evenly across the current bottom three clubs

that would give them 31-32 points. 

2003-4, 2004-5 and 2008-9 were years like this with all

three relegated clubs on 33 points (’03-4), 32-33 points (’04-5, as we all

remember) and 32-34 points (’08-9) – assuming my stats are right.

 

In that vein a draw may not be a disaster

[!M.u.s.t.a.r.d_M.a.t.t.e.r.s! 0]

I have looked at the ''points per game''  achieved for both home and away matches for all the bottom 11 teams and further split them by ''against top half'' teams and ''against bottom half'' teams. I have then applied them to the remaining fixtures. This results in 7 teams in the mix gaining less than 40 points:West Brom 37Norwich 37Swansea 36Sunderland 38Palace 34Cardiff 32Fulham 30Sunderland is very interesting because they have achieved the highest success of all bottom 11 teams in ''away games aginst top half teams'' - at 1.6 PPG. Given that they have yet to play the stronger top half teams away - Liverpool, Spurs, Man City, Man U and Chelsea - it is most unlikely that they will maintain the 1.6 average. If they finish on 36 points they will have done very well imo. Against ''bottom half teams away'', they are poor - averaging 0.63 PPG. They need at least a draw. If they lose, it looks like curtains for them unless they improve their home form considerably.We average 1.7 PPG (let''s call it 2) at home against bottom half clubs. If we lose. it could signal curtains for us as we will have effectively thrown away 2 points and our goal difference is - well you know what it is like.That said, no one can predict the final outcome to the season. Some of you will recall the season when Palace had 4 games to play - with a game in hand over Oldham - and were 5 points ahead. Oldham won their final 3 games and Palace - despite picking up 4 points were relegated on goal difference: or the team which was leading by 5 points at the halfway stage against their main rivals but were 12 points behind at the finish.

[Yellow Bird 0]

Anything less than a win today, and I think we will go down. We have to win. Hughton normally pulls it off if his back is against the wall, eg Spurs game. I''m being very brave today and predicting a 2-1 home win.

[Alfie54 83]

We can''t possibly be satisfied with a draw, we need to win home games against teams that are lower than us in the league!

[Mr Brownstone 0]

Whenever we''ve been in these "must win" situations before, Hughton has come up with a result.

 

2-0 City, Wolf with a brace.

 

[ZLF 335]

1-0

[blahblahblah 2]

I don''t understand why losing today will guarantee relegation. It''s just another 3 points. I think we''ll squeak another 3 points, 1-0 or 2-1.

[Yellow Bird 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]I don''t understand why losing today will guarantee relegation. It''s just another 3 points. I think we''ll squeak another 3 points, 1-0 or 2-1.[/quote]

I didn''t say it guaranteed relegation, it was my opinion. Games are running out and this has to be one that we have to be looking to win. We should be beating teams who are below us. If Sunderland take 3 points off us today, they have 3 games in hand on us. Yes, they have to win them, but having 3 more games to save their season and if they got a point or more today, it would boost them no end. At this point in time, I would predict Fulham and Cardiff to go down along with another out of about 6 teams, including us. Of course, that could all change and the bottom 2 could start picking up serious points. On paper, this game and WBA at home are the ''easiest'' games and we should be aiming to win both.

[Alfie54 83]

I think that the only brace that Wolf will get, will be for his teeth!

[blahblahblah 2]

I would agree that this and WBA are the easiest games, and would be very disappointed with less than 4 points from those 2 games. But when we can beat Spurs on a good day, we can beat anyone in this league on a good day.

We just need a few more good days to be comfortable.