Bsports - Final Table Updated

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Their updated projection after the weekend : https://www.bsports.com/projectedtablesepl

 

It shows how tight things are that 3 points for us means our risk of relegation falls from 35% last week to 11.5% now, both of which feel about right to me.

They''re now projecting Sunderland to be 18th on 34 points and City to end up with 37.6 points.

 

At the bottom Fulham and Cardiff both slip closer to doom with their risk of relegation edging up to 80%.  The big question now is who will join them, with Sunderland favourites on 50% but Palace not much better off at 45%.  Still in the mix are WBA at 16% and Swansea now up to 9.6%.

 

No room for complacency, but as you''d expect it has a much rosier look than last week.  At the start of the year, who''d have forecast we''d get to the end of March without conceding a league goal from open play at FCR ?

 

At the other end, they''re seeing it as a two-horse race with Chelsea edging it on 41%, ahead of ManC on 39% and Liverpool the dark horses on 16.8%.  And Arsenal, as I predicted, have withered away from their good early season form with just a 2% chance now for the title.

 

Finally, in case Waveney comes onto this forum this week, I''m afraid bsports don''t do a prediction table for the Championship, so maybe he could let us know if he thinks 1p5wich have any chance of a late run for the playoffs now ?

[TCCANARY 263]

 

I think it really shows that these stats are a load of squit.

 

 

[Holtcantshoot 0]

[quote user="TCCANARY"]

 

I think it really shows that these stats are a load of squit.

 

 

[/quote]It would seem to suggest they didn''t predict us to beat Sunderland, meaning there''s not any real reason to think any of their other predictions will be right either.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="Holtcantshoot"][quote user="TCCANARY"]

I think it really shows that these stats are a load of squit.

[/quote]

It would seem to suggest they didn''t predict us to beat Sunderland, meaning there''s not any real reason to think any of their other predictions will be right either.
[/quote]

Depends how you look at it.  IMO it showed we were in trouble last week and really needed a win on Saturday.  Objectively what were our chances of winning Saturday ?  The average Prem game is won by the home team about 50% of the time - I''d guess our chances going in were better than that, but not too much.  Hence our risk level last week reflected the fact that we might well not have won on Saturday in which case we''d really have been in trouble.

 

Having got the win we''re correspondingly much better off, while Fulham, Cardiff and Sunderland lost hence their chances of being relegated have all got worse.

 

So my gut feel last week was that we''d got ourselves into a real risk of relegation but not as bad as many on here - who were saying they thought we would probably be relegated - were thinking.  I think about one in three was about right then.  But 3 points from Saturday makes a huge difference and has catapulted us into a much less dangerous place, again my gut feel is that the website''s prediction of an 11% risk for us now is about right.

 

Not saying it''s perfect but it looks to be to have a decent assessment of the risk for the main teams likely to be relegated.  It''s way better IMO than some guy like Merson etc just saying who he thinks will go down.  And I''ll continue to look at it and I don''t really care about people who just dismiss it - fine, don''t bother looking, each to his own.

[E.L.F. 0]

That .6 of a point should effectively dismiss the clubs poor goal diff. then. Happy days.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="E.L.F."]That .6 of a point should effectively dismiss the clubs poor goal diff. then. Happy days.[/quote]

Absolutely. People say you shouldn''t play for the 0.6 of a point but come the end of the season it could be key.