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Beefy is a legend

Who will go down?

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Now that we''re in the lofty heights of 13th place I feel a little more comfortable looking at each Club''s run-in to predict who the bottom three might be, here is my conclusion but feel free to add yours!

Cardiff are doomed and will finish bottom. Away games at Southampton and Newcastle and a home game with Chelsea look unlikely to yield more than perhaps one point. They do have WBA and Sunderland away and Stoke and Palace at home but realistically would have to win all four games to reach 38 points. It looks an impossible task. I predict 20th place and 31 points.

Crystal Palace may well join them. They have an absolute pig of a run-in. Home games are so vital at this stage and they have still to play Chelsea, Aston Villa, Man City and Liverpool at Selhurst Park. 3 points from those 4 is probably the best they can hope for. With away games at Cardiff, Everton, West Ham and Fulham, what they do on the road looks decisive but they haven''t won many away all season and I can see them going down on 32 points.

For me, West Brom and Swansea will survive. Albion have home games with Cardiff, Spurs, West Ham and Stoke to come, with the last two games particularly looking like they may yield maximum points against sides with little to play for in the last few games. I predict 37 points for them. For Swansea, with Norwich, Villa and Southampton at home and Hull and Sunderland away I can see them getting at least the two wins they need and a total of 39 points.

It looks to be Fulham v Sunderland for the 17th place. Although Fulham have been very poor, their run-in does look the easiest of all, with only Spurs away of the big sides left to play. The last three games of Hull h, Stoke a and Palace h may provide salvation, and if the canaries donate the usual 3 points I can see them scraping up to 34 points.

Sunderland have games in hand but frankly they don''t look like they will do much good. They have Liverpool. Spurs, Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd in their five remaining away games. I''m not sure they will get more than maybe 1 or 2 points from those. For them, it all comes down to home form. West Ham, Everton, Cardiff, West Brom and Swansea remain. They would need 9 points to equal Fulham''s tally of 34. Can they do it? I''m not sure but it looks a tough ask. They''ve probably got to win 3 of the home games that remain or at least two with a few draws. It won''t be easy.

My conclusion, Cardiff, Sunderland and Palace to go down.

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Was about to comment on why you think Palace will only get 3 more points but looking at their games, Villa at home is the only one i''d back them to win. Fulham may be down already when they face them on the last day though.

Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City 3 out of their 4 remaining home games?!

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Cardiff & Fulham,  although I think Fulham will finish 18th as they have an easy finale.

 

As for the third I would like it to be palace (dont like the place) or WBA (pease to suffer for the madness sacking of clarke) but feel it will be a woeful sunderland (and the loss of a home win for us) 

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With no BBC predictor to help out, I went through the remaining fixtures yesterday and this was my final table (very pessimistic for City only predicting 3 more points against WBA, although I''m confident we''ll get at least a point from one of Fulham and Swansea, plus no reason why we can''t get something from the final 4 games either if we play like we did on Saturday.  I''ve also been a little optimistic for our rivals).Order alphabetical when on the same points.Aston Villa - 43West Ham - 39Hull - 38Swansea - 38Norwich - 35Sunderland - 35West Brom - 35-------------------Fulham - 34Cardiff - 31Palace - 31Fulham to pick up 10 more points (wins against Norwich, Hull and Palace, a point from Everton)Cardiff to pick up 6 more points (wins against Palace and Stoke)Palace to pick up 3 more points (win against Villa)I believe Fulham v Palace on the final day will be too late for either club with safety 4+ points away.  It will also be very interesting during the midweek before should a point be enough for both Sunderland and WBA to secure safety!

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[quote user="Pauls Ferry"]When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?[/quote]In my mind we''re one points ahead of what I was predicting.  I had a loss against Spurs and a win against Stoke.  This doesn''t however change my views about Chris Hughton, he''s not the correct man for NCFC as he''s not getting the best out of what''s available to him and we are often capitulating away from home.

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[quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="Pauls Ferry"]When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?[/quote]In my mind we''re one points ahead of what I was predicting.  I had a loss against Spurs and a win against Stoke.  This doesn''t however change my views about Chris Hughton, he''s not the correct man for NCFC as he''s not getting the best out of what''s available to him and we are often capitulating away from home.
[/quote]

 

Why bring Hughton into it?

 

I''m just amazed that our fans seemingly change with the wind. If we are as bad as was being intimated after Southampton, I don''t see how one result can make so much difference when folk were talking about relegation with such certainty before.

 

 

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[quote user="Pauls Ferry"]

[quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="Pauls Ferry"]When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?[/quote]In my mind we''re one points ahead of what I was predicting.  I had a loss against Spurs and a win against Stoke.  This doesn''t however change my views about Chris Hughton, he''s not the correct man for NCFC as he''s not getting the best out of what''s available to him and we are often capitulating away from home.
[/quote]

 

Why bring Hughton into it?

 

I''m just amazed that our fans seemingly change with the wind. If we are as bad as was being intimated after Southampton, I don''t see how one result can make so much difference when folk were talking about relegation with such certainty before.

 

 

[/quote]

 

why would any fan even consider relegation for a second?

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quote user="Paul''s Ferry"

quote user="Matt Juler"quote user="Pauls Ferry"When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?/quoteIn my mind we''re one points ahead of what I was predicting.  I had a loss against Spurs and a win against Stoke.  This doesn''t however change my views about Chris Hughton, he''s not the correct man for NCFC as he''s not getting the best out of what''s available to him and we are often capitulating away from home.
/quote

 

Why bring Hughton into it?

 

I''m just amazed that our fans seemingly change with the wind. If we are as bad as was being intimated after Southampton, I don''t see how one result can make so much difference when folk were talking about relegation with such certainty before.

I''ll just make it clear that at no point have I thought we were going down.

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[quote user="Beefy is a legend"]quote user="Paul''s Ferry"

quote user="Matt Juler"quote user="Pauls Ferry"When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?/quoteIn my mind we''re one points ahead of what I was predicting.  I had a loss against Spurs and a win against Stoke.  This doesn''t however change my views about Chris Hughton, he''s not the correct man for NCFC as he''s not getting the best out of what''s available to him and we are often capitulating away from home.
/quote

 

Why bring Hughton into it?

 

I''m just amazed that our fans seemingly change with the wind. If we are as bad as was being intimated after Southampton, I don''t see how one result can make so much difference when folk were talking about relegation with such certainty before.

I''ll just make it clear that at no point have I thought we were going down.[/quote]

 

And at no point have I said that you did.

 

What baffles me is that following a loss to Southampton there were posters galore throwing in the towel, stating that we were sleepwalking to relegation, going down without a fight etc etc

 

Now, we barely get a mention in the relegation discussion, so what happened other than we won a game? 

 

 

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[quote user="Beefy is a legend"]

And at no point have I said that you did.

What baffles me is that following a loss to Southampton there were posters galore throwing in the towel, stating that we were sleepwalking to relegation, going down without a fight etc etc

Now, we barely get a mention in the relegation discussion, so what happened other than we won a game? 

[/quote]It''s because of the above that I mentioned that Hughton isn''t the man for the job.  One win doesn''t change my mind, one defeat doesn''t change my mind.  I''ve based my views on his whole tenure as manager of NCFC and from Reading away on the 10th November 2012 I''ve been increasingly concerned about his approach.  All results went our way this weekend, it now makes our position better but still far from safe.

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[quote user="Pauls Ferry"]When did everyone stop thinking we''d go down?[/quote]

 

For me I never thought we were likely to go down (in the sense that Cardiff and Fulham are now highly likely to go down) but no-one could deny the risk.  The risk is still there but realistically much lower.

 

It''s simply that most fans think 36 or 37 points, or even 35 will be safe this year given the log-jam at the bottom of the table, so as we now have 32 points and are unbeaten at home this year, you have to have a real downer on City''s chances to view us as anything other than an outside bet for relegation.

 

If we win on Saturday that will see us almost home and dry... even a point would be a big step forward.

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I''m sure you didn''t think that we would go down but some were talking in such certainty.

We haven''t improved, the points total required, the quality of the teams around us and our respective run ins; none of this has changed.

Makes you wonder if those that were forecasting relegation with such certainty are fickle, defeatist or maybe just supporters of other sides revelling in a poor NCFC result.

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