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flecky76

We are not safe!

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A rallying call for everyone please! I seem to keep reading that the Sunderland win was the one that all but ensured another season in the PL. Steve Gedge please take note!!

Well I''m sorry, but 32 points will not keep you up, I''m pretty darned sure of that. There are ALWAYS weird results at the end of every season , as teams end up getting points you wouldn''t expect them to.

Anything under 38 points and for me, I would not be confident it would be enough, especially with you goal difference.

So that''s a win against WBA and some points cobbled together from our next 2 away games to make things a little easier to bare for the final 3 games. People keep mentioning about the final day against Arsenal, but if we lose the 3 prior to that, conceding a few goals to boot, please remember that our confidence going into that Arsenal game will be lower than a snakes belly.

Ok, so maybe I''m being glass half empty here, but if we waste these next 3 fixtures and especially fail to get a minimum of 4 points from these, I think we will be down come the final reckoning.

A bit of a wake up call please that there is still plenty of work for us to do and the job is not done yet.

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Odd end of season results like our win at ManC.

We should get a point or 2 from the last 4, and I refuse to believe Fulham are going to take 6 points from us this year. Even Cardiff didn''t do that. None of the promoted sides did. Fulham is as bad as any of them.

That''s sarcasti-logic.

.

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Agreed Flecky. Many people on this board seem to oscillate between complacency and catastrophe on this board based purely on the last result. These next few games, particularly West Brom are crucial. We might nick a surprise result here and there in the final 4 games, but I don''t want us to be relying on beating Chelsea, Arsenal or Manure to stay up.

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I get that, but they are not getting better and I don''t think we will lose to the same sadsack team yet again in the same season.

We will get at least a point. A very valuable point.

.

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I dont think there will be one Norwich City supporter who thinks we are safe, so I question where you get us being assured of another season after the win against Sunderland from? Even the most extreme "inner" will still know that there is a big job to and that it will be a roller coaster until the end, but they will have the believe that we will come through it with a positive outcome, like me.

As for Fulham, under estimate them at our peril, besides being a bit of a bogey for us, they also possess arguably a better squad than us and from what I have seen, although they can be shocking at times, their better performances when they do come along are actually better than our better performances, if you know what I mean. They will be at home and will see this game as their last chance saloon against another struggling team, a team that certainly struggles away from home..........we must be realistic in our expectations.........conversely the home game vs Albion has just about the reverse situation as we all will know................yep...we are not safe......we are definately not safe.....fun and games ahead!   

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We are definitely not safe, and I don''t recall any (or at least many) posts that have said we are... IMO we need at least 4 more points before we can start to relax.

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For me it goes to the wire,  we may pick up another 4 - 6 points, but if the teams below us pick up points too, we could be in the position of not be more than three points ahead of the others by the Arsenal game, which would mean a highly fraught final day.  There could be as many as six clubs fighting to stay out of that 18th place by the last day of the season.   We are at the moment four points clear of Palace and WBA - but they have a game in hand.  So we have some work to do to maintain that four point gap.

 

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If we lost the next three now, Fulham would be 5 points or less away from us with two games in hand, West Brom would be a point behind with three in hand, Swansea would be above us with 2 in hand leaving Palace, Cardiff and Sunderland.

Sunderland would need 7 points from 5 games, Cardiff would need the same amount from three games and Palace would need 4 from 4.

I still think i''d fancy only West Brom and Swansea to be above us if that happened leaving us 16th with four to play. It increasingly looksl like it will be the current bottom three that will go. If we can''t get at least one win out of West Brom, Swansea and Fulham, we deserve to go though!

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As long as we keep on playing like we have since the start of the year, we''ll be ok, but I don''t think anyone is taking that for granted.  Personally I think we''ll be mathematically safe after 37 games but there''ll be some nervous moments before then.

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]

I dont think there will be one Norwich City supporter who thinks we are safe, so I question where you get us being assured of another season after the win against Sunderland from? Even the most extreme "inner" will still know that there is a big job to and that it will be a roller coaster until the end, but they will have the believe that we will come through it with a positive outcome, like me.

As for Fulham, under estimate them at our peril, besides being a bit of a bogey for us, they also possess arguably a better squad than us and from what I have seen, although they can be shocking at times, their better performances when they do come along are actually better than our better performances, if you know what I mean. They will be at home and will see this game as their last chance saloon against another struggling team, a team that certainly struggles away from home..........we must be realistic in our expectations.........conversely the home game vs Albion has just about the reverse situation as we all will know................yep...we are not safe......we are definately not safe.....fun and games ahead!   

[/quote]

And the monthly award for the most cliche ridden post goes to.......[<:o)]

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[quote user="ricardo"]One more win and 2 draws will be enough.
[/quote]

 

I believe it would just about be, but where are the two draws coming from? I can see us beating WBA after that it becomes a little more tight!

 

Having just looked at the fixtures and how the bottom teams are playing each other no doubt will take points off each other and Fulham have on paper the easiest run in..........my prediction:

 

Norwich to get 4 points, total of 36 points

Sunderland to get 9 points, total of 34 points

Swansea to get 9 points, total of 39 points

Cardiff to get 7 points, total of 32 points

Fulham to get 10 points, total of 34 points

WBA to get 7 Points, total of 35 points

 

So there we are, I have given us the win over WBA and a draw against Fulham without these we would be looking worse off. That said it''s only a prediction based upon my thoughts but as Ricardo said 5 points and we will be OK, but geting those 5 points might be the problem.

 

Fingers crossed on a win at Swansea to start the ball rolling ready for the visit of WBA.

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Sunderland, Fulham, and Cardiff have taken 25, 24 and 25 points from 29, 31 and 31 games respectively.

What makes anyone think that in the last 7 or 9 games they are going to take 13-15 points to stay up.

One more win and we are safe.

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glad someone finally said it! Swansea will be desperate for a win, so it could all look very different by Saturday afternoon. I won''t feel safe until we reach at least 36, minimum. All the teams below us have a worryingly high amount of winnable games coming up

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[quote user="ricardo"]One more win and 2 draws will be enough.[/quote]Well, maybe. Time will tell. But I rather fancy we''ll need 6 pts rather than 5, so two wins would do it. I say that because our GD is inferior to most, and it''s so tight, I can see GD coming into it, which effectively gives us one fewer point than the others.As others have said, if we cannot fashion two wins out of the next 3 games, then there''s something truly amiss. I would not, however, completely rule out an unexpected win from one of the final four fixtures.

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[quote user="Paul"]Sunderland, Fulham, and Cardiff have taken 25, 24 and 25 points from 29, 31 and 31 games respectively.

What makes anyone think that in the last 7 or 9 games they are going to take 13-15 points to stay up.

One more win and we are safe.[/quote]

Fear of relegation?

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Then why not start playing better and picking up results 10 games ago, they were all in danger then.

I will be shocked if Fulham and Cardiff get more than 32 points and Sunderland 34

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[quote user="Indy"]

[quote user="ricardo"]One more win and 2 draws will be enough.[/quote]

 

I believe it would just about be, but where are the two draws coming from? I can see us beating WBA after that it becomes a little more tight!

 

Having just looked at the fixtures and how the bottom teams are playing each other no doubt will take points off each other and Fulham have on paper the easiest run in..........my prediction:

 

Norwich to get 4 points, total of 36 points

Sunderland to get 9 points, total of 34 points

Swansea to get 9 points, total of 39 points

Cardiff to get 7 points, total of 32 points

Fulham to get 10 points, total of 34 points

WBA to get 7 Points, total of 35 points

 

So there we are, I have given us the win over WBA and a draw against Fulham without these we would be looking worse off. That said it''s only a prediction based upon my thoughts but as Ricardo said 5 points and we will be OK, but geting those 5 points might be the problem.

 

Fingers crossed on a win at Swansea to start the ball rolling ready for the visit of WBA.

[/quote]Where is Palace?Palace have a bad run-in too. They still have to play all of the top 3.

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I really think that we''ll get 6 from the next three games, 38 should be enough, but I can also see another point or two from the last four. If we can''t do that we really can''t complain if we go down!

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At the moment it is all in our own hands over the next few games.... if we win two out of Swansea, WBA and Fulhan we are sure to be safe.

The issue of course is that if we lose one of those games it is not only points we lose but we give them to a rival and it will give them more hope and willingess to fight to catch us and the others in the mix.

Whatever happens, and no matter who the points come against, if we dont earn enough to stay up then we deserve to go down it''s as simple as that. You can moan about difficult run ins, bad decisions, injuries etc but our fate is decided by the whole season not just this last bit.

I desperately hope we do survive and then push on so that next season we can have a boring, relaxed, never in danger mid table finish!!

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The Butler......I just read that back, I dididnt realise at the time but I agree with you, and thanks for the award.....but as you know football is a funny old game and we really must take one game at a time.........

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The more I look at it the more I am convinced that Cardiff, Fulham and Sunderland will not get 35 points.

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[quote user="ricardo"]The more I look at it the more I am convinced that Cardiff, Fulham and Sunderland will not get 35 points.[/quote]I''ve just been looking at it too mate, and have come to the same conclusion.Especially on this thread nicely laid out by Brighton Yellowhttp://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3092053/ShowPost.aspxIf Sunderland can''t get a win against West Ham this weekend, they may have to wait a long time for their next one!I also think Palace are in a much worse position than us as well.However, the better things start to look ''on paper'', the more I need to keep reminding myself that the game isn''t played on paper.

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[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"][quote user="ricardo"]The more I look at it the more I am convinced that Cardiff, Fulham and Sunderland will not get 35 points.[/quote]I''ve just been looking at it too mate, and have come to the same conclusion.Especially on this thread nicely laid out by Brighton Yellowhttp://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3092053/ShowPost.aspxIf Sunderland can''t get a win against West Ham this weekend, they may have to wait a long time for their next one!I also think Palace are in a much worse position than us as well.However, the better things start to look ''on paper'', the more I need to keep reminding myself that the game isn''t played on paper.[/quote]Indeed, but no reason whatever to suppose that all those below us are suddenly going to pick up more points per game in the last quarter of the season than they have in the first three quarters.Would anyone swap our position for Cardiff''s, Sunderland''s or Fulham''s?No, didn''t think so.

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[quote user="ricardo"]Would anyone swap our position for Cardiff''s, Sunderland''s or Fulham''s?[/quote]I''d swap our position with Fulham''s, have always fancied living by the Thames and reckon my house would be worth a few million quid.

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