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Hughtons P45.2

"Inners" do not look without tissues and anti anxiety pills near by.

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Just seen this floating about on the WWW!

http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/13/advanced-stats-project-premier-league-battle-for-top-4-and-survival-spots-to-go-down-to-final-weekend/

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A few weeks ago we still had half a season to go, and a run against beatable teams, from which we haven''t taken the points we might have expected. It''s entirely relevant.

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[quote user="Hughtons P45.2"]"Inners" do not look without tissues and anti anxiety pills near by[/quote]I think the "Inners" have kept pretty calm all season, It''s the pant wetters that have been having the trouble with moisture. They''ve donated more to the recent floods than any global warming.....[:''(] [:''(] [:''(]

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Don''t quite know how to interpret the title of this post in relation to the article other than that the inners are the only ones that should be worrying about the prospect of relegation.I want Hughton out of the club as much as anyone, but even more so i want Norwich to stay up (again, as much as anyone), and those predictions should be a grim and troubling read for true Norwich fans far and wide, the ins, the outs, and the shake it all abouts.Can i see Hughton getting us out of this mess? Hardly, but i wouldn''t half be happy for him to defy my expectations.

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John,

The title of the post is irrelevant, he is just a troll trying to get a reaction by insulting people.

Unfortunately he is succeeding to some degree.

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I doubt you''re wrong John, about time the guy was banned for a second time because of the number of brain dead threads being created.

Of course, us staying up doesn''t assist their argument. That''s the trouble with being an ''outer'' - it makes you stop wanting us to win because when we win your argument gets weaker.

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Talking out your Anus again I see Beefy!! I can assure you i''d get absolutely no pleasure AT ALL from us going down. That seems to be the inners best argument these days. Have you all got bored of the "stick to hit the club with" comments?? So just so I know anyone who thinks we will go down, or that Hughton is not the man for us are rubbish fans that hate the club as they must hate the club to want us relegated right???

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The site doesn''t explain exactly how the results have been worked out, but it does itself conclude by saying it''s little more than an educated guess really. Trying to work things out on stats this season is largely irrelevant - you try and figure out who''s going down based on points per game and remaining fixtures etc. but you get one or two slightly "unexpected" results and you suddenly jump up the form table and are predicted to finish comfortably mid table! It''s that close at the moment that it''s virtually impossible to predict, even with the clever algorithms and whatever else the computer on this site is using.

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quote user="Hughtons P45.2"Talking out your Anus again I see Beefy!! I can assure you i''d get absolutely no pleasure AT ALL from us going down. That seems to be the inners best argument these days. Have you all got bored of the "stick to hit the club with" comments?? So just so I know anyone who thinks we will go down, or that Hughton is not the man for us are rubbish fans that hate the club as they must hate the club to want us relegated right???/quote

I''m sorry but that entire paragraph made no sense.

What point were you trying to make?

By the way, there''s no need for a capital ''a'' in anus.

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quote user="Aggy"The site doesn''t explain exactly how the results have been worked out, but it does itself conclude by saying it''s little more than an educated guess really. Trying to work things out on stats this season is largely irrelevant - you try and figure out who''s going down based on points per game and remaining fixtures etc. but you get one or two slightly "unexpected" results and you suddenly jump up the form table and are predicted to finish comfortably mid table! It''s that close at the moment that it''s virtually impossible to predict, even with the clever algorithms and whatever else the computer on this site is using./quote

Exactly Aggy - that''s why it''s irrelevant.

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[quote user="Beefy is a legend"]And is it relevant that we are currently outside the bottom three?[/quote]

Of course it''s relevant. Not only is it relevant, it''s the way it is. I''m just saying that a few weeks ago west ham were in an entirely different position. As were we. The difference is they''ve picked up results when expected, and we haven''t. The situation a few weeks ago is now irrelevant. The situation as it is now is what counts. Currently we''re outside the bottom 3 (good), but over the course of that last few weeks we''ve dropped points we''ve expected to gain (bad). This, in my opinion leaves us in a much worse position than we would have all expected to be in. Still, win our next 2 and we''ll all be a lot happier. Can you see it though?

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Good point Beefy about West Ham. Although stats can be quite interesting to see where you are likely to finish, the fact that the table is so tight means that you''ve surely got to look at the teams which look like they really could go down when looking at performance. So you would say Fulham and Cardiff are a few points adrift as well as playing very poorly. West Brom aren''t playing that well so are as likely as norwich to go down (unfortunately like savage said) who are playing well yet importantly are not sticking the ball in the back of the net. Its all down to the character of our team, if we play and create the chances we have done recently then we will score enough and stay up. The question is can we keep the level of performance up until the end of the season?

I don''t know and nor does anyone else for that matter...it''s a very exciting end to the season

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[quote user="Buzz Killington"][quote user="Beefy is a legend"]And is it relevant that we are currently outside the bottom three?[/quote]

Of course it''s relevant. Not only is it relevant, it''s the way it is. I''m just saying that a few weeks ago west ham were in an entirely different position. As were we. The difference is they''ve picked up results when expected, and we haven''t. The situation a few weeks ago is now irrelevant. The situation as it is now is what counts. Currently we''re outside the bottom 3 (good), but over the course of that last few weeks we''ve dropped points we''ve expected to gain (bad). This, in my opinion leaves us in a much worse position than we would have all expected to be in. Still, win our next 2 and we''ll all be a lot happier. Can you see it though?[/quote]

But surely all you saying is ''anything can happen'' West ham should have had better results before their last 3 games, but now they''ve just won 3 on the trot against all the odds, they never looked like doing that before, so why can''t we? (The answer to that is we can, but will we?)

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I wouldn''t pin my hopes on the next two games. I''d say that we need to win 4 of the last 12 and maybe get a draw or two. We are playing some decent stuff lately and so a record of, say, 4 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from here is still achievable which will make 39pts.

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Beefy,

Perhaps a more appropriate poem is;

Substituting ''Him'' with Hughton it reads;

God grant me the serenity

to accept the things I cannot change;

courage to change the things I can;

and wisdom to know the difference.

Living one day at a time;

Enjoying one moment at a time;

Accepting hardships as the pathway to peace;

Taking, as Hughton did, this sinful world

as it is, not as I would have it;

Trusting that Hughton will make all things right

if I surrender to Hughton''s Will;

That I may be reasonably happy in this life

and supremely happy with Hughton

Forever in the next (replace with Championship?).

Amen.

--Reinhold Niebuhr

Prayer may be our best hope?

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Anyway, looking at that site what it actually gives are % risks of relegation which it says (based on magical statistical analysis which it doesn''t reveal as far as I can see ) are as follows :

Fulham - 72.3%

Cardiff - 66.4%

City - 41.9%

Sunderland - 32.5%

Palace - 30.6%

WBA - 17.8%

Stoke - 12.3%

Hull - 11.5%

& then others at around or below 5% such as WHU, Villa etc


So paradoxically it says City have a better than 50/50 chance of surviving, while at the same time being the 3rd most likely team for the drop.


For me I think it overstates our risk which I''d put at more like 20% based on gut reaction - worrying still though.  Compared to last season when around this time a lot of people were predicting us for the drop and I estimated our risk at about the 5% level.  Time will tell but it''s going to be a worrying few months, there''s no doubt.

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