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PurpleCanary

GOOD NEWS - NO RELEGATION FOR US!

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Probably. Ok, possibly. A dull Saturday has produced some number-crunching, most of which detail I will keep out of this post. The starting point is the idea, for which there is plenty of evidence (and some more here), that the table does not change much after the first third of the season. Some movement but, which is what concerns us, the bottom five or six clubs tend to stay the bottom five or six.At the one-third point the table, reading down was 11 Swansea, 12 WBA, 13 Hull, 14 Norwich, 15, West Ham, 16 Stoke, 17 Cardiff, 18 Fulham, 19 Sunderland, 20 Crystal Palace.But there have been several managerial changes (some good, some bad) and the transfer window, so I looked at the form for the second third of the season, which is where we are at.On that form basis, just taking how clubs did in those 13 or 14 matches, reading down the table would be 11 Crystal Palace, 12 Sunderland, 13 West Ham, 14 Stoke, 15= Hull and Swansea, 17 Norwich, 18 Fulham, 19= West Brom and Cardiff. So Fulham still relegated but two new clubs through the trapdoor.If you take that form of the second 3rd of the season as what will now continue, add the points so gained on to those already acquired, and you end up with the following table:11. Palace 46 pts.12. West Ham 42 pts.13. Sunderland 41 pts.14  Stoke 40 pts.15. Swansea 39 pts.16. Hull 38 pts.17. Norwich 35 pts.18. WBA 32 pts.19. Cardiff 30 pts.20. Fulham. 29 pts.Now I do not believe that is how the table will look on May 11th! Apart from anything else Aston Villa might be in the bottom half (on around 40 points). And no account is taken on what fixtures face different clubs. But there are some conclusions. Firstly Fulham''s (very bad) form in the second 3rd was the same as in the first. If I bet on football I would put a fair bit on Fulham going down.Secondly, two clubs had very sharp declines in form from the first 3rd to the second 3rd.  Cardiff, whose points per game dropped from 1.0 to 0.69, and West Brom, with a PPG fall from 1.15 to 0.69. Ours dropped from 1.07 to 0.84. Other fallers were Swansea and Hull. Stoke''s PPG stayed the same, and those of West Ham, Sunderland and Palace rose.That suggests the other sides to go down will come from Swansea, Hull, Norwich, West Brom and Cardiff, with the last two the likeliest, given their sharp declines in form.

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I''m saving my predictions for the three quarter way mark Purple. I did my initial predictions at 12 games then halfway and next will be 28 games but I''m no nearer making a pronouncement, unlike last season when it was quite obvious at Xmas that we would be o.k. It isn''t now.

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:-) I always appreciate predictions forcasting our survival.... Especially when effort''s been put into it :-)

One huge concerning omen for me is this: Hull, Newcastle, Sunderland, Cardiff, Fulham and WBA are the 6 teams to appear below us in current form and/or league position.... From these teams we''ve took 9 points from 27... So that''s 2 wins from 9 meetings....

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Purple, watching the Sunderland game todañy they stated that they have to play 5 of the top 6 away still.

So that 5 games you would think that returns a nul point return.

With that in mind do you really think they will finish where you have predicted?

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[quote user="slartyblartfast"]Purple, watching the Sunderland game todañy they stated that they have to play 5 of the top 6 away still.

So that 5 games you would think that returns a nul point return.

With that in mind do you really think they will finish where you have predicted?[/quote]"Now I do not believe that is how the table will look on May 11th!"

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