you don't have to read it ;-)

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

I''ve changed my mind... You are going to have to put up with a progress report after every round of fixtures. The way I see it is: I''m not forcing you to read it. If you tend to not like my posts like this... Don''t read them. Quite simple really... And if you read it and cant think of any positive counter arguments or don''t like what I''ve said... If you have nothing nice to say then best not to speak is more than just a fortune cookie... It''s my birthday next Saturday... I''m starting to think the Spurs game being moved was a gift now lol.

Anyway... This is how I see it (regarding why I go on about my predictions): when I made my predictions for the next 10 games (before the Cardiff game), I did so with depleated faith in City under Hughton. Then, to see if I thought we could do enough for survival if we lost the last 5 games, I gave us 0 points... The resulting table gave me an injection of hope....

(when points are equal, it goes to GD at the time)

1: Man C (91)

2: Chelsea (87)

3: Arsenal (83)

4: Spurs (75)

-------------------

5: Man U (74)

6: Liverpool (72)

7: Everton (66)

8: Southampton (56)

9: Newcastle (52)

10: Swansea (41)

11: Hull (40)

12: Palace (37)

13: Norwich (36)

14: Sunderland (35)

15: Villa (34)

16: West Ham (34)

17: Cardiff (34)

-----------------------

18: Fulham (33)

19: West Brom (31)

20: Stoke (30)

Any fan would bite the hand off anyone offering that table considering the scenario it arrives.

So if you want survival, related to this scenario offered, you''d want my accuracy to be as close to perfect as possible ... Or/and my accuarcy to be off in such a way that benefits us... This is why I post this progress report...

Over the last 28 results... I got just 9 (32.1%) correct. My first correct City result was the West Ham game.... A bloomin defeat. Here''s how my predictions hold out having (but 4 teams) played 3 fixtures.... The number after points shows how close I was for points over their results so far...

1: Man C (88 -3)

2: Chelsea (87 = )

3: Arsenal (80 -3)

4: Spurs (77 +2)

----------------------

5: Liverpool (76 +4)

6: Man U (70 -4)

7: Everton (65 -1)

8: Southampton (57 +1)

9: Newcastle (51 -1)

10: Hull (40 = )

11: Palace (40 +3)

12: West Ham (39 +5)

13: Swansea (38 -3)

14: Cardiff (35 +1)

15: Villa (34 = )

16: Sunderland (34 -1)

17: Stoke (34 +4)

--------------------------

18: Norwich (34 -2)

19: Fulham (33 = )

20: West Brom (29 -2)

This is why I dont want it to rely on GD or goals scored! We suck for goals!

1st season up we got maximum points against 3 teams. Under Hughton''s tenure: he has 3 cracks left at it...

1st season up we managed 11 points against the 3 relegated teams. Last season we managed 9. If we survive it could look set to be worse still....

We currently have 4 teams below us in the table: West Brom, Sunderland, Cardiff and Fulham. A good omen: out of them, only Sunderland are higher in the form table. But... From those 4 teams we have managed 5 points from 15... That''s 33% success....

We have 5 teams below us in the form table: Hull, Cardiff, Newcastle, West Brom then Fulham. From them 5 teams, we have 8 points from 24 ... Or 33% success....

We are currently still joint 2nd from last with Cardiff for goals scored thanks to Palace''s game being postponed. That makes our attacking ranking 18th, as it was 4 games ago.

Only Stoke, Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more than us... But Stoke still has a better GD. Our defensive ranking is 16th, as it was 4 games ago but down a place since before Hammers game.

We have won once in 13 games in all competitions.

4 games ago this was Hughton''s league stats (remember: if less wins, second best is more draws than defeats):

W: 16/60 (26.66%)

D: 19/60 (31.66%)

L: 25/60 (41.66%)

So now it''s...

W: 16/64 (25%)

D: 21/64 (32.81%)

L: 27/64 (42.19%)

4 games ago, our goals per game was at 0.82 ... It''s now at 0.73. Our failed to score was at 36% ... It''s now at 42%

We''ve scored more than once only 3 times all season.

This all means: when you go to a Norwich game... You stand a 1 in 4 chance of seeing a a win, only 58% of seeing us score and only 11.54% chance of seeing us score more than once!

You may have heard (lol) Hughton''s made 63 substitutions and not one has a goal or an assist... A season record (EPL record?).

So like I say... Everything is on the decline... Consider all that when mentioning we still have to face 3 of the 4 teams below us yet.

Results wasn''t too bad for us this round. Hull lost to Southampton and Fulham lost to Liverpool. West Brom did get their point from Chelsea though. While Cardiff, Villa, Stoke and Swansea getting draws is what we would want, because we picked up 0 points, it does mean they all gain a point on us. Sunderland''s game being PP is a bonus as it keeps Man C from slipping up 3 points again and keeps Sunderland below us. Palace''s being PP is too as it delays their scoring.

Next round of fixtures, 6 fellow bottom 11s face top 9s... So any points gained for them there would be a bad result (duh haha) ... If WBA v Fulham cant be a draw, would rather WBA won. If Cardiff v Hull can''t be a draw I would rather Hull won. I put us down for another defeat... How I''d love to be back to my wrong ways...

Our form is DLDL.

Spurs are on a run of LDWW coming into our game.

Villa are on a run of WLLD and face Newcastle before we go to them.

Stoke are on LWDD but face Man C then Arsenal before coming to us.

Southampton are on DWDW and face West Ham, Liverpool then Palace before hosting us.

Sunderland are on WWL and 3 of their 5 fixtures befour ours is against top 9 teams.

Swansea are on WLWD and again 3 of the 5 fixtures inbetween us are against top 9 teams.

West Brom are on LDLD but only 1 game out of 6 before ours is against a top 9 team.

Fulham are on LLDL and their run is tough: 4 out of 7 fixtures before ours is against top 9 teams.

Absolutely nothing to worry about though, hey ;-)

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

This is, I hope, a spelling and typo free version now...

I''ve changed my mind... You are going to have to put up with a progress report after every round of fixtures. The way I see it is: I''m not forcing you to read it. If you tend to not like my posts like this... Don''t read them. Quite simple really... And if you read it and cant think of any positive counter arguments or don''t like what I''ve said... If you have nothing nice to say then best not to speak is more than just a fortune cookie... It''s my birthday next Saturday... I''m starting to think the Spurs game being moved was a gift now lol.

Anyway... This is how I see it (regarding why I go on about my predictions): when I made my predictions for the next 10 games (before the Cardiff game), I did so with depleated faith in City under Hughton. Then, to see if I thought we could do enough for survival if we lost the last 5 games, I gave us 0 points... The resulting table gave me an injection of hope....

(when points are equal, it goes to GD at the time)

1: Man C (91)

2: Chelsea (87)

3: Arsenal (83)

4: Spurs (75)

-------------------

5: Man U (74)

6: Liverpool (72)

7: Everton (66)

8: Southampton (56)

9: Newcastle (52)

10: Swansea (41)

11: Hull (40)

12: Palace (37)

13: Norwich (36)

14: Sunderland (35)

15: Villa (34)

16: West Ham (34)

17: Cardiff (34)

-----------------------

18: Fulham (33)

19: West Brom (31)

20: Stoke (30)

Any fan would bite the hand off anyone offering that table considering the scenario it arrives.

So if you want survival, related to this scenario offered, you''d want my accuracy to be as close to perfect as possible ... Or/and my accuarcy to be off in such a way that benefits us... This is why I post this progress report...

Over the last 28 results... I got just 9 (32.1%) correct. My first correct City result was the West Ham game.... A bloomin defeat. Here''s how my predictions hold out having (but 4 teams) played 3 fixtures.... The number after points shows how close I was for points over their results so far...

1: Man C (88 -3)

2: Chelsea (87 = )

3: Arsenal (80 -3)

4: Spurs (77 +2)

----------------------

5: Liverpool (76 +4)

6: Man U (70 -4)

7: Everton (65 -1)

8: Southampton (57 +1)

9: Newcastle (51 -1)

10: Hull (40 = )

11: Palace (40 +3)

12: West Ham (39 +5)

13: Swansea (38 -3)

14: Cardiff (35 +1)

15: Villa (34 = )

16: Sunderland (34 -1)

17: Stoke (34 +4)

--------------------------

18: Norwich (34 -2)

19: Fulham (33 = )

20: West Brom (29 -2)

This is why I dont want it to rely on GD or goals scored! We suck for goals!

1st season up we got maximum points against 3 teams. Under Hughton''s tenure: he has 3 cracks left at it...

1st season up we managed 11 points against the 3 relegated teams. Last season we managed 9. If we survive it could look set to be worse still....

We currently have 4 teams below us in the table: West Brom, Sunderland, Cardiff and Fulham. A good omen: out of them, only Sunderland are higher in the form table. But... From those 4 teams we have managed 5 points from 15... That''s 33% success....

We have 5 teams below us in the form table: Hull, Cardiff, Newcastle, West Brom then Fulham. From them 5 teams, we have 8 points from 24 ... Or 33% success....

We are currently still joint 2nd from last with Cardiff for goals scored thanks to Palace''s game being postponed. That makes our attacking ranking 18th, as it was 4 games ago.

Only Stoke, Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more than us... But Stoke still has a better GD. Our defensive ranking is 16th, as it was 4 games ago but down a place since before Hammers game.

We have won once in 13 games in all competitions.

4 games ago this was Hughton''s league stats (remember: if less wins, second best is more draws than defeats):

W: 16/60 (26.66%)

D: 19/60 (31.66%)

L: 25/60 (41.66%)

So now it''s...

W: 16/64 (25%)

D: 21/64 (32.81%)

L: 27/64 (42.19%)

4 games ago, our goals per game was at 0.82 ... It''s now at 0.73. Our failed to score was at 36% ... It''s now at 42%

We''ve scored more than once only 3 times all season.

This all means: when you go to a Norwich game... You stand a 1 in 4 chance of seeing a win, only 58% chance of seeing us score and only 11.54% chance of seeing us score more than once!

You may have heard (lol) Hughton''s made 63 substitutions and not one has a goal or an assist... A season record (EPL record?).

So like I say... Everything is on the decline... Consider all that when mentioning we still have to face 3 of the 4 teams below us yet.

Results wasn''t too bad for us this round. Hull lost to Southampton and Fulham lost to Liverpool. West Brom did get their point from Chelsea though. While Cardiff, Villa, Stoke and Swansea getting draws is what we would want, because we picked up 0 points, it does mean they all gain a point on us. Sunderland''s game being PP is a bonus as it keeps Man C from slipping up 3 points again and keeps Sunderland below us. Palace''s being PP is too as it delays their scoring.

Next round of fixtures, 6 fellow bottom 11s face top 9s... So any points gained for them there would be a bad result (duh haha) ... If WBA v Fulham cant be a draw, would rather WBA won. If Cardiff v Hull can''t be a draw I would rather Hull won. I put us down for another defeat... How I''d love to be back to my wrong ways...

Our form is DLDL.

Spurs are on a run of LDWW coming into our game.

Villa are on a run of WLLD and face Newcastle before we go to them.

Stoke are on LWDD but face Man C then Arsenal before coming to us.

Southampton are on DWDW and face West Ham, Liverpool then Palace before hosting us.

Sunderland are on WWL and 3 of their 5 fixtures before ours is against top 9 teams.

Swansea are on WLWD and again 3 of the 5 fixtures inbetween us are against top 9 teams.

West Brom are on LDLD but only 1 game out of 6 before ours is against a top 9 team.

Fulham are on LLDL and their run is tough: 4 out of 7 fixtures before ours is against top 9 teams.

Absolutely nothing to worry about though, hey ;-)

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

So from the last 28 results... There are some good calls from these 9 I got right ;-) ...

Liverpool drawing with West Brom.

Arsenal beating Fulham.

Everton beating Villa.

Southampton beating Palace.

Sunderland beating Newcastle.

Chelsea beating Newcastle.

Swansea beating Cardiff.

West Ham beating us.

Stoke drawing with Swansea.

[Tommie Tippee 0]

Thanks Matthew.

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Thanks crazy8 ... You''re welcome :-) how very kind to comment

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Lol ... Hughton is only slightly better at managing (33%*) than I am at guessing football results (9/28 32.1%)!! And I''m rubbish! ;-)

* = 9 points from 27 from the 6 teams to currently feature below us in the league and/or form table

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Villa, Chelsea and Fulham: I''m right on form having got 1 result correct...

Hull I''m right on form despite not getting a single result of theirs right haha

Newcastle are my most accurate team predictions having predicted 2 of their 3 defeats

[Bury Green 0]

Interesting reading, thanks for taking the time to set that out.

''Keeping the Faith'' implies some sort of belief in the supernatural, luck, chance, good fortune, whatever else and that somehow if we just keep our fingers crossed it''ll all be ok.

When you look at the numbers in detail as you''ve done here it kicks ''Faith'' in the knackers so to speak.

Yours it the mandate for change, or at least it should have been two months ago, it''s too bloody late I fear.

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

[quote user="Bury Green"]Interesting reading, thanks for taking the time to set that out.

''Keeping the Faith'' implies some sort of belief in the supernatural, luck, chance, good fortune, whatever else and that somehow if we just keep our fingers crossed it''ll all be ok.

When you look at the numbers in detail as you''ve done here it kicks ''Faith'' in the knackers so to speak.

Yours it the mandate for change, or at least it should have been two months ago, it''s too bloody late I fear.[/quote]

cheers man... I know exactly what you mean.

Just noticed I got 2 out of 3 Swansea results right too...

[wooster 134]

Just out-of-interest, I split the league into 3 groups:

(a)   

The top 6

(b)  

Mid-table: Man Utd, Newcastle & Southampton

(c)   

The bottom 11.

I’ve then averaged the points earned by each of the bottom

11’s games against (b) & (c), separately for home & away games.  I’ve then assumed the bottom 11 earn these averages

for their remaining games.  So it’s using

form against these teams as a guide to the remaining games, no more.

 I’m assuming the

bottom 11 lose all games against the top 6, home and away – I know there will

exceptions to this (eg our game against Man City) but it simplifies things.

The results are as follows:

 

Villa                                                        42

Swansea                                              41

Stoke/Hull                                           37

W Ham                                                 35

Palace                                                   34

WBA/Norwich                                   33

Cardiff/Sunderland                         31

Fulham                                                 30

 

Separately, I’ve looked at the remaining games of the bottom

11 and come up with the same bottom 3 (on 27-29 points) with Norwich on 32

points.  Here’s hoping ………

[# 0]

[quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]I''ve changed my mind... You are going to have to put up with a progress report after every round of fixtures. The way I see it is: I''m not forcing you to read it. If you tend to not like my posts like this... Don''t read them. Quite simple really... And if you read it and cant think of any positive counter arguments or don''t like what I''ve said... If you have nothing nice to say then best not to speak is more than just a fortune cookie... It''s my birthday next Saturday... I''m starting to think the Spurs game being moved was a gift now lol. Anyway... This is how I see it (regarding why I go on about my predictions): when I made my predictions for the next 10 games (before the Cardiff game), I did so with depleated faith in City under Hughton. Then, to see if I thought we could do enough for survival if we lost the last 5 games, I gave us 0 points... The resulting table gave me an injection of hope.... (when points are equal, it goes to GD at the time) 1: Man C (91) 2: Chelsea (87) 3: Arsenal (83) 4: Spurs (75) ------------------- 5: Man U (74) 6: Liverpool (72) 7: Everton (66) 8: Southampton (56) 9: Newcastle (52) 10: Swansea (41) 11: Hull (40) 12: Palace (37) 13: Norwich (36) 14: Sunderland (35) 15: Villa (34) 16: West Ham (34) 17: Cardiff (34) ----------------------- 18: Fulham (33) 19: West Brom (31) 20: Stoke (30) Any fan would bite the hand off anyone offering that table considering the scenario it arrives. So if you want survival, related to this scenario offered, you''d want my accuracy to be as close to perfect as possible ... Or/and my accuarcy to be off in such a way that benefits us... This is why I post this progress report... Over the last 28 results... I got just 9 (32.1%) correct. My first correct City result was the West Ham game.... A bloomin defeat. Here''s how my predictions hold out having (but 4 teams) played 3 fixtures.... The number after points shows how close I was for points over their results so far... 1: Man C (88 -3) 2: Chelsea (87 = ) 3: Arsenal (80 -3) 4: Spurs (77 +2) ---------------------- 5: Liverpool (76 +4) 6: Man U (70 -4) 7: Everton (65 -1) 8: Southampton (57 +1) 9: Newcastle (51 -1) 10: Hull (40 = ) 11: Palace (40 +3) 12: West Ham (39 +5) 13: Swansea (38 -3) 14: Cardiff (35 +1) 15: Villa (34 = ) 16: Sunderland (34 -1) 17: Stoke (34 +4) -------------------------- 18: Norwich (34 -2) 19: Fulham (33 = ) 20: West Brom (29 -2) This is why I dont want it to rely on GD or goals scored! We suck for goals! 1st season up we got maximum points against 3 teams. Under Hughton''s tenure: he has 3 cracks left at it... 1st season up we managed 11 points against the 3 relegated teams. Last season we managed 9. If we survive it could look set to be worse still.... We currently have 4 teams below us in the table: West Brom, Sunderland, Cardiff and Fulham. A good omen: out of them, only Sunderland are higher in the form table. But... From those 4 teams we have managed 5 points from 15... That''s 33% success.... We have 5 teams below us in the form table: Hull, Cardiff, Newcastle, West Brom then Fulham. From them 5 teams, we have 8 points from 24 ... Or 33% success.... We are currently still joint 2nd from last with Cardiff for goals scored thanks to Palace''s game being postponed. That makes our attacking ranking 18th, as it was 4 games ago. Only Stoke, Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more than us... But Stoke still has a better GD. Our defensive ranking is 16th, as it was 4 games ago but down a place since before Hammers game. We have won once in 13 games in all competitions. 4 games ago this was Hughton''s league stats (remember: if less wins, second best is more draws than defeats): W: 16/60 (26.66%) D: 19/60 (31.66%) L: 25/60 (41.66%) So now it''s... W: 16/64 (25%) D: 21/64 (32.81%) L: 27/64 (42.19%) 4 games ago, our goals per game was at 0.82 ... It''s now at 0.73. Our failed to score was at 36% ... It''s now at 42% We''ve scored more than once only 3 times all season. This all means: when you go to a Norwich game... You stand a 1 in 4 chance of seeing a a win, only 58% of seeing us score and only 11.54% chance of seeing us score more than once! You may have heard (lol) Hughton''s made 63 substitutions and not one has a goal or an assist... A season record (EPL record?). So like I say... Everything is on the decline... Consider all that when mentioning we still have to face 3 of the 4 teams below us yet. Results wasn''t too bad for us this round. Hull lost to Southampton and Fulham lost to Liverpool. West Brom did get their point from Chelsea though. While Cardiff, Villa, Stoke and Swansea getting draws is what we would want, because we picked up 0 points, it does mean they all gain a point on us. Sunderland''s game being PP is a bonus as it keeps Man C from slipping up 3 points again and keeps Sunderland below us. Palace''s being PP is too as it delays their scoring. Next round of fixtures, 6 fellow bottom 11s face top 9s... So any points gained for them there would be a bad result (duh haha) ... If WBA v Fulham cant be a draw, would rather WBA won. If Cardiff v Hull can''t be a draw I would rather Hull won. I put us down for another defeat... How I''d love to be back to my wrong ways... Our form is DLDL. Spurs are on a run of LDWW coming into our game. Villa are on a run of WLLD and face Newcastle before we go to them. Stoke are on LWDD but face Man C then Arsenal before coming to us. Southampton are on DWDW and face West Ham, Liverpool then Palace before hosting us. Sunderland are on WWL and 3 of their 5 fixtures befour ours is against top 9 teams. Swansea are on WLWD and again 3 of the 5 fixtures inbetween us are against top 9 teams. West Brom are on LDLD but only 1 game out of 6 before ours is against a top 9 team. Fulham are on LLDL and their run is tough: 4 out of 7 fixtures before ours is against top 9 teams. Absolutely nothing to worry about though, hey ;-)[/quote]

 

Oh wow.[:S]

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Wow you''re now depressed or wow you feel sorry for me? :-)

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

The table is so tight... If we don''t improve our attacking threat relegation looks worryingly likely... Last time we got relegated from top flight we had a better goal threat despite diabolical defense hence lack of wins.... This time we''re scraping wins and still looking like relegation fodder

[Fuzzar 1,702]

Is there any way you could précis your larger posts please Rodney?

My attention span isn''t quite what it......

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Haha :-)

To summerize: everything points to NCFC under Hughton declining toward England''s second tier

[Katie Borkins 1]

[quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]Haha :-)

To summerize: everything points to NCFC under Hughton declining toward England''s second tier[/quote]If you went outside and that was raining, reckon you''d write 14,000 words on why you reckon it might rain.

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Oh come on grandpa... Even I''m not that verbose... I reckon I could cover "it''s raining" in 1,400 words!

Besides.... I doubt I''d have any opposition trying to tell me it''s not raining ;-)

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]Oh come on grandpa... Even I''m not that verbose... I reckon I could cover "it''s raining" in 1,400 words!

Besides.... I doubt I''d have any opposition trying to tell me it''s not raining ;-)[/quote]I wouldn''t bet on it.[:D]

[RodneyTrottersFC 0]

Lol true