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littleyellowbirdie

Our last 38 games.

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With the 40 point safety guideline being in a lot of people''s minds at the moment, it''s interesting to note that in our last 38 premier league games we have acquired a total of...drum roll...40 points.Just thought I''d share the observation.

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Yeh, but if you factor in;

 

The opposition being on the beach.

The opposition being the poorest insert team name here that we''ve ever played against.

Games where the players revolted and ignored the coaching team.

Games where we didn''t score in open play.

Games where the opposition goalie made better saves than ours.

 

How many points would we have then eh?

 

 

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[quote user="TCCANARY"]

 

Yeh, but if you factor in;

 

The opposition being on the beach.

The opposition being the poorest insert team name here that we''ve ever played against.

Games where the players revolted and ignored the coaching team.

Games where we didn''t score in open play.

Games where the opposition goalie made better saves than ours.

 

How many points would we have then eh?

 

 

[/quote]Actually,much better to ''factor in'' that a season is not 38 games spread over two separate campaigns.......

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As the man said, you can prove anything with statistics. Why select 38 games,- to include our nice little unexpected run at the end of the last season?

It''s a favourite trick of politicians, to select the starting point and end point to give the best results. What happens if we consider 40 games, or 45 or 50? I suspect that the first two, by including the poor mid season run could show a worse picture, while 50 would include our good run in late 2012.

As there have been player changes, it may be unfair to lump any part of last season with this.

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For me Hughton has to be given massive credit for getting results when he really needs them. Given that we have only ever been in the bottom 3 for three weeks under Hughton how can anyone really criticise him taking inot account our spending power and players, remember Lambert said this was as far as he could take us. Hughton took us to 11th!

 

Take away the poor style for the large part, the past few games we have been superb and showed on Sunday. Would we take 40 points every 38 games, well for the short term hell yes but playing as we have in the past 5 games please.

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Well on current form for THIS season Reggie we''re on course to get either 39 or 40 points (39.4 to be precise), so what''s your point?

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[quote user="splutcho"]Well on current form for THIS season Reggie we''re on course to get either 39 or 40 points (39.4 to be precise), so what''s your point?[/quote]My point is that there were a select group of people who, earlier in the season said that you can''t just cherrypick a series of games to suit your argument.  But, evidently now, that is no longer the case...ie it''s ok to do just that. People need to be consistent. Prior to the recent good (ish) run post the Everton match we''d probably only have been on target for 34 pts . But I notice no one was waxing lyrical about that fact.Frankly, the only figure I''m ultimately interested in is what the actual total is at 6pm on May 11th, and whether that is enough to have us anywhere from 17th upwards.

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It''s an interesting statistic... some people just need to take it at face value. I don''t think it gives support to those who want the manager to stay and those who want him to go. It''s just a statistic. [:)]

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="splutcho"]Well on current form for THIS season Reggie we''re on course to get either 39 or 40 points (39.4 to be precise), so what''s your point?[/quote]My point is that there were a select group of people who, earlier in the season said that you can''t just cherrypick a series of games to suit your argument.  But, evidently now, that is no longer the case...ie it''s ok to do just that. People need to be consistent. Prior to the recent good (ish) run post the Everton match we''d probably only have been on target for 34 pts . But I notice no one was waxing lyrical about that fact.Frankly, the only figure I''m ultimately interested in is what the actual total is at 6pm on May 11th, and whether that is enough to have us anywhere from 17th upwards.[/quote]When you cherry pick you pick results that suit your argument, like saying we''ve only won so many games since (pick point where a decent run of form ended). 38 games is a seasons worth of games and that''s why I approached it from there.Pursuing the option further, I did a chart of this from the start of this season. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhebcctCIAETR9Z.jpg

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We all need to be behind him for the rest of this season and if we stay up there needs to be a debate as to where we go from here. Will the board have the confidence to give him anotherĀ£25m to spend in the summer not sure. He has made some fantastic buys but arguably his 2 big ones have not. Do we stick with or change the two strikers at the end of the season? unless we get a better return we will no doubt be in a similar league position this time next year

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I agree with most of that Yorkshire. But wouldn''t be in a hurry to change the two main strikers signed this year.

Improving the midfield with a much talked about decent CAM will hopefully be a priority, thus helping both Hoops and RVW. But also a more athletic and attacking right back than either Martin or Whittaker.

Having watched a montage of RVW''s goals in Portugal, he was very good at finding space in the box and finishing with his feet. Overlapping full backs would be able to play those sort of balls in (as Olsson showed at the weekend).

I read that Naughton was looking for a move in the summer and, as has again already been discussed, I think he would be an excellent addition to the team.

Replace Elmander and Becchio with a really good CAM and I''d hope the goals would start to flow.

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="splutcho"]Well on current form for THIS season Reggie we''re on course to get either 39 or 40 points (39.4 to be precise), so what''s your point?[/quote]My point is that there were a select group of people who, earlier in the season said that you can''t just cherrypick a series of games to suit your argument.  But, evidently now, that is no longer the case...ie it''s ok to do just that. People need to be consistent. Prior to the recent good (ish) run post the Everton match we''d probably only have been on target for 34 pts . But I notice no one was waxing lyrical about that fact.Frankly, the only figure I''m ultimately interested in is what the actual total is at 6pm on May 11th, and whether that is enough to have us anywhere from 17th upwards.[/quote]

 

Ha! So we agree again! For instance stuff like our results over a calendar year are piffle! I think David McNally agrees with us too[;)]

 

Three sets of results which are relevant are The whole of last season P38 44pts. The whole of this season P27 28pts. And his complete record at the club which is P65 72pts. Would you agree reg?

 

 

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[quote user="Salopian"]As the man said, you can prove anything with statistics. Why select 38 games,- to include our nice little unexpected run at the end of the last season?

It''s a favourite trick of politicians, to select the starting point and end point to give the best results. What happens if we consider 40 games, or 45 or 50? I suspect that the first two, by including the poor mid season run could show a worse picture, while 50 would include our good run in late 2012.

As there have been player changes, it may be unfair to lump any part of last season with this.[/quote]It''s not just a random number he pulled out of his @rse, though, is it? It''s the number of league games we play over a season. Reading between the lines I thought the point is that over any given 38-game run Hughton has typically amassed enough points to reach that magical 40-point safety mark. There are peaks and troughs in form but that over the course of a season under Hughton we''ve typically averaged enough points to avoid relegation. I''ve not experimented to try it out, though (life''s too short). I do, however, take you point that perhaps if you were too select a different 38-game continuous sequence of results there could be instances where they do not add up to 40 [or more] points.

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[quote user="Chip20"][quote user="Salopian"]As the man said, you can prove anything with statistics. Why select 38 games,- to include our nice little unexpected run at the end of the last season?

It''s a favourite trick of politicians, to select the starting point and end point to give the best results. What happens if we consider 40 games, or 45 or 50? I suspect that the first two, by including the poor mid season run could show a worse picture, while 50 would include our good run in late 2012.

As there have been player changes, it may be unfair to lump any part of last season with this.[/quote]It''s not just a random number he pulled out of his @rse, though, is it? It''s the number of league games we play over a season. Reading between the lines I thought the point is that over any given 38-game run Hughton has typically amassed enough points to reach that magical 40-point safety mark. There are peaks and troughs in form but that over the course of a season under Hughton we''ve typically averaged enough points to avoid relegation. I''ve not experimented to try it out, though (life''s too short). I do, however, take you point that perhaps if you were too select a different 38-game continuous sequence of results there could be instances where they do not add up to 40 [or more] points.[/quote]If you click here you will see a chart I''ve done of this for the entire season. You''re absolutely right: I picked 38 games because that''s the number in the season. Someone criticised the fact that 38 games includes the last two games of the season. 38 games also includes games before that that weren''t so successful. You can see the graph go down as the results from the 10 game run move out of the 38 game selection, hit''s a bottom of 37 points and starts to creep up again. There''s a slight bit of noise in it because you don''t play teams in the same order each year, but I don''t think that''s too major.My own personal interpretation is that it illustrates quite well that the standard we started at this year was significantly lower than what we did over last year, which is understandable in the context of a lot of new players with no premier league experience bedding in and long-term injuries. Now that they''ve had more time together and the injury glut is out of the system it''s picking up again.

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