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RodneyTrottersFC

smother generously with good news and sprinkle a bit of doom in the middle...

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WARNING: I offer no guarantees you will find any of this even remotely interesting.

DISCLAIMER: Read at your own risk. Comment nothing but abuse at your own peril ;-)

I know this is geeky to the extreme... But having kept records of my predictions I made at 15 games to go, I can keep track of how my guesswork turned out.... And how the repercussions of my accuracy affects the end result.

I''ve got 15 out of 38 results correct ... That''s nearly 39.5%.... Not too bad... I think there are some good calls amongst these... Couple of derby calls... Anyway:

Norwich losing to West Ham.

West Brom drawing with Liverpool.

Swansea losing to Liverpool.

Swansea beating Cardiff.

Swansea drawing with Stoke.

Man C beating Stoke.

Man U beating Palace.

Southampton beating Palace.

Everton beating Villa.

Everton losing to Chelsea.

Newcastle losing to Chelsea.

Newcastle beating Villa.

Newcastle losing to Sunderland.

Arsenal beating Sunderland.

Arsenal beating Fulham.

Swansea and Newcastle are the only teams I''ve managed to get 3 out of 4 results correct (Everton, Palace and Sunderland I have 2 from 3)... But with Chelsea, Southampton, Cardiff and Villa I have managed a spot on points tally...

Hull and Spurs I''ve got no results correct lol BUT Hull only have 2 more points than I thought and Spurs have 1 less.

West Ham (+7) and Stoke & Liverpool (+4) are the ones doing way better than I thought and Man U (-4) and Man C, Arsenal & Swansea (-3) are the ones far below their target. This means I''m only 3 points out or better for 16 teams.

Results went very much in our favour last weekend... Of the 6 other teams from bottom 11 to face top 9 teams... Only West Ham picked up any points... And even that''s not so bad because we won... The 2 games involving exclusively bottom 11 clubs: one was a draw and the other the prefered team to win won :-) On top of all that: Cardiff and Palace didn''t score so least we''re not bottom of the goals scored pile.... It does concern me the only 2 teams to score less than us are 2 teams freshly up... And Palace even have a better GD :-/

If results go our way this weekend... We could be 11th place with 31 points.... In my predictions, with 10 games to go, we ended up in 11th place with 30 points.

This is good news! I made the first 10 predictions with depleted faith and deliberately gave us defeats in our last 5 games... Just to see... Worst case scenario. NO... I do not actually think we will definitely get no points lol but even under these circumstances: we ended up 13th with 36 points!

One last thing: here is some stats to compare between Current (C), this point Last Season (LS) and since 5 Games ago (5G)... Where we ended an 8 game run without a win by getting a goal in the 87th minute (?) against Hull.... and just for shits and giggles, this point in the 04-05 season (05)...

League:

C: 14th w: 7 d: 7 l: 13 gf: 20 ga : 39 gd: -19 Pts: 28

5G: 12th w: 6 d: 5 l: 11 gf: 18 ga: 35 gd:-17 Pts: 22

LS: 12th w: 7 d: 11 l: 9 gf: 27 ga: 41 gd: -14 Pts: 32

05: 19th w: 3 d: 11 l:13 gf: 26 ga:52 gd:-26 Pts: 20

Hughton''s tenure stats:

C: w: 17/65 26% d: 21/65 32% l: 27/65 42%

5G: w: 16/60 27% d: 19/60 32% l: 25/60 42%

LS: as above... Fuck the percentages ;-)

05: well he wasn''t here but I''m gonna blame him at any rate ;-)

Attacking rank:

C: 18th 5G: 18th LS:17th 05: 18th

Defence rank:

C: 14th 5G: 16th LS:13th 05: 20th

Failed To Score:

C: 41% 5G: 36% LS: 33.3% 05: 44%

Goals Per Game:

C: 0.74 5G: 0.82 LS: 1.00 05: 0.96

Scored two or more in a league game:

C: 3/27 11%

5G: 3/22 14%

LS: 6/27 22%

05: 5/27 19%

Hmm... Things need to turn around sharpish... I think so long as he dont mess it up and they play like that again...it''s doable.

If we can pull off our first consecutive league win on Sunday... If Newcastle beat Hull and Palace beat Swansea (even better if a draw)... We could go 11th! A new season high I believe...

Villa are only 1 of 2 teams from the bottom 11 that can get maximum points from us. The other one is Fulham.

We''re yet to beat Villa since Lambert went there..... Sunday could be our day :-)

4 games ago I predicted the win for us... I said things might be rocky at Villa and I got it spot on (3 defeats and a draw) ... But the disasters either side of the Man City beaut, and all other omens, does make me worry.

I''m gonna stick my neck out and say we will win... Really push the boat out and say we''ll score twice: 2-1 after all... Our form (DLDLW) Is slightly better than theirs (WLLDL).

Heck, lets really bore ya even more... I''ll spare ya details... Just forms, prediction and original prediction...

LWLL Everton 1-3 West H DWWWW (HW)

LLDLD Fulham 2-5 Chelsea DWWDW (AW)

LDWLW Hull 2-3 Newcastle DLLLW (D)

LWDDL Stoke 0-2 Arsenal DWLDW (D)

DWDWL Southampton 3-3 Liverpool WDWWW (D)

---------------------------------

WLWDL Swansea 1-1 Palace WLWL (D)

LDWWL Spurs 2-0 Cardiff LWLDL (HW)

Fingers crossed it''s another Spurs... And not another West Ham ;-)

So... If anyone has read all that: Thank you for reading :-)

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[quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]WARNING: I offer no guarantees you will find any of this even remotely interesting.

DISCLAIMER: Read at your own risk. Comment nothing but abuse at your own peril ;-)

I know this is geeky to the extreme... But having kept records of my predictions I made at 15 games to go, I can keep track of how my guesswork turned out.... And how the repercussions of my accuracy affects the end result.

I''ve got 15 out of 38 results correct ... That''s nearly 39.5%.... Not too bad... I think there are some good calls amongst these... Couple of derby calls... Anyway:

Norwich losing to West Ham.

West Brom drawing with Liverpool.

Swansea losing to Liverpool.

Swansea beating Cardiff.

Swansea drawing with Stoke.

Man C beating Stoke.

Man U beating Palace.

Southampton beating Palace.

Everton beating Villa.

Everton losing to Chelsea.

Newcastle losing to Chelsea.

Newcastle beating Villa.

Newcastle losing to Sunderland.

Arsenal beating Sunderland.

Arsenal beating Fulham.

Swansea and Newcastle are the only teams I''ve managed to get 3 out of 4 results correct (Everton, Palace and Sunderland I have 2 from 3)... But with Chelsea, Southampton, Cardiff and Villa I have managed a spot on points tally...

Hull and Spurs I''ve got no results correct lol BUT Hull only have 2 more points than I thought and Spurs have 1 less.

West Ham (+7) and Stoke & Liverpool (+4) are the ones doing way better than I thought and Man U (-4) and Man C, Arsenal & Swansea (-3) are the ones far below their target. This means I''m only 3 points out or better for 16 teams.

Results went very much in our favour last weekend... Of the 6 other teams from bottom 11 to face top 9 teams... Only West Ham picked up any points... And even that''s not so bad because we won... The 2 games involving exclusively bottom 11 clubs: one was a draw and the other the prefered team to win won :-) On top of all that: Cardiff and Palace didn''t score so least we''re not bottom of the goals scored pile.... It does concern me the only 2 teams to score less than us are 2 teams freshly up... And Palace even have a better GD :-/

If results go our way this weekend... We could be 11th place with 31 points.... In my predictions, with 10 games to go, we ended up in 11th place with 30 points.

This is good news! I made the first 10 predictions with depleted faith and deliberately gave us defeats in our last 5 games... Just to see... Worst case scenario. NO... I do not actually think we will definitely get no points lol but even under these circumstances: we ended up 13th with 36 points!

One last thing: here is some stats to compare between Current (C), this point Last Season (LS) and since 5 Games ago (5G)... Where we ended an 8 game run without a win by getting a goal in the 87th minute (?) against Hull.... and just for shits and giggles, this point in the 04-05 season (05)...

League:

C: 14th w: 7 d: 7 l: 13 gf: 20 ga : 39 gd: -19 Pts: 28

5G: 12th w: 6 d: 5 l: 11 gf: 18 ga: 35 gd:-17 Pts: 22

LS: 12th w: 7 d: 11 l: 9 gf: 27 ga: 41 gd: -14 Pts: 32

05: 19th w: 3 d: 11 l:13 gf: 26 ga:52 gd:-26 Pts: 20

Hughton''s tenure stats:

C: w: 17/65 26% d: 21/65 32% l: 27/65 42%

5G: w: 16/60 27% d: 19/60 32% l: 25/60 42%

LS: as above... Fuck the percentages ;-)

05: well he wasn''t here but I''m gonna blame him at any rate ;-)

Attacking rank:

C: 18th 5G: 18th LS:17th 05: 18th

Defence rank:

C: 14th 5G: 16th LS:13th 05: 20th

Failed To Score:

C: 41% 5G: 36% LS: 33.3% 05: 44%

Goals Per Game:

C: 0.74 5G: 0.82 LS: 1.00 05: 0.96

Scored two or more in a league game:

C: 3/27 11%

5G: 3/22 14%

LS: 6/27 22%

05: 5/27 19%

Hmm... Things need to turn around sharpish... I think so long as he dont mess it up and they play like that again...it''s doable.

If we can pull off our first consecutive league win on Sunday... If Newcastle beat Hull and Palace beat Swansea (even better if a draw)... We could go 11th! A new season high I believe...

Villa are only 1 of 2 teams from the bottom 11 that can get maximum points from us. The other one is Fulham.

We''re yet to beat Villa since Lambert went there..... Sunday could be our day :-)

4 games ago I predicted the win for us... I said things might be rocky at Villa and I got it spot on (3 defeats and a draw) ... But the disasters either side of the Man City beaut, and all other omens, does make me worry.

I''m gonna stick my neck out and say we will win... Really push the boat out and say we''ll score twice: 2-1 after all... Our form (DLDLW) Is slightly better than theirs (WLLDL).

Heck, lets really bore ya even more... I''ll spare ya details... Just forms, prediction and original prediction...

LWLL Everton 1-3 West H DWWWW (HW)

LLDLD Fulham 2-5 Chelsea DWWDW (AW)

LDWLW Hull 2-3 Newcastle DLLLW (D)

LWDDL Stoke 0-2 Arsenal DWLDW (D)

DWDWL Southampton 3-3 Liverpool WDWWW (D)

---------------------------------

WLWDL Swansea 1-1 Palace WLWL (D)

LDWWL Spurs 2-0 Cardiff LWLDL (HW)

Fingers crossed it''s another Spurs... And not another West Ham ;-)

So... If anyone has read all that: Thank you for reading :-)[/quote]

You need to get out more

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[quote user="mrs miggins"]Come on now, don''t be nasty, he said if you don''t want to read it then don''t bother[/quote]

Sorry

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I dont like to put a damper on your prediction rating of 39% correct but ................On average 50% of Premier League games are home wins, 25% away wins and 25% draws so logically by simply predicting home wins would achieve a higher percentage.

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I would also add that any system which gives a prediction rate of < 50% is generally regarded as having failed in any meaningful way.

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Take Mrs Miggins up on her offer - as a newlywed, I''m sure you''d be able to find something better to do with your time.

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I would like to say that the OPs average is not that bad given that there are so many factors that just cannot be calculated by pure maths. If predicting the results of a football match is down to just maths and percentages we would all be winning the football poosl every week.........

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[quote user="Fuzzar"]Take Mrs Miggins up on her offer - as a newlywed, I''m sure you''d be able to find something better to do with your time.[/quote]

Nah we''ll just become a super poster in the same way that you get supergroups. Mrs Rodney; where optimism and long posts come together.......in other words what i''m trying to say is..... we are LDC

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This is all very interesting Rodders, but the clincher will be whether you''ve put all these predictions to the test by staking cold hard cash on them all at one of Mr Hill or Mr Chandler''s establishments/websites ?!

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Sorry Mrs Miggins but 42% of marriages end in divorce... On some people''s logic, we shouldn''t even bother ;-)

Come on LDC.... I read your verbose rant about respect twice and had the decency to somehow contribute more than just a smilie.... I''m good at mathes, not a mind mind reader... :-s could mean any number of things...

When will I learn to include a little dig at the unimaginative somewhere in the middle of my long posts? Something childish like "first twat to comment something about how I need to get out more or how they stopped reading or got a headache at a certain point wins. Prize: a great big patronising smile with 2 thumbs up"...

Hey Ronnie... Just a quick little speed lesson on basic Football math... If I predict a win but we lose, like Cardiff,then predict a defeat but we win, like Spurs, then can you work out what happens when you +3 then -3??? Well done if you got "="....

Where would be the fun in that Phil & Ted?? Cant account for form, strength of opponent or surprise results that way... Or the personal touch....

I don''t understand the hostility lol .... I gave us 5 straight defeats and we still ended up 13th.... Why are you not willing my accuracy on? I''ve said from the start that this is nothing more than one scenario and to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt....

And really think about what my 39(.5!! ;-p)% accuracy means... That''s out of 38 games... So the ratio would suggest a better percentage given 100 games. I personally think being spot on for points tally on 4 teams, 1 out on 6 teams, 2 out on 2 teams, 3 out on 4 teams.... =< 3 out on 16/20 teams is damn good going.... And considering after making 50 guesses I had us at 11th with 30 points... And we''re this close to being 11th with 31 points... I think I can safely say: suck it ;-)

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[quote user="mrs miggins"]I hope you''re right rodney. I bet £20 on us to finish 13th - it''s a bit of a gamble[/quote]You see Rodders. Miggo has the courage of her convictions.Despite all this ''math '' stuff, you''ve not confirmed that you have......

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I wish I had the cold hard cash to gamble mate. I think I''ve only only ever placed 2-3 small bets ever... My last one: Hooper did score first... And I was on the money... But whoever we were playing ruined it by scoring.

As it happens, I do have some time on my hands (hahaa!) and realised I had a brain fart.... Given 100 games, my ratio would sugest I get 39.47 results correct....

Anyway... I have to travel in to this fine city soon. If I remember rightly, wednesdays are steak days at the Bell... Well worth the small price

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[quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]I wish I had the cold hard cash to gamble mate. I think I''ve only only ever placed 2-3 small bets ever... [/quote]I''m actually with you 100% on that Rodders. Gambling = mugs game.Though it appears that Lakey and now Miggo are claiming otherwise.What position has your hard earned twenty quid been wagered on this year, Migs ?

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="RodneyTrottersFC"]I wish I had the cold hard cash to gamble mate. I think I''ve only only ever placed 2-3 small bets ever... [/quote]I''m actually with you 100% on that Rodders. Gambling = mugs game.Though it appears that Lakey and now Miggo are claiming otherwise.What position has your hard earned twenty quid been wagered on this year, Migs ?[/quote]Sorry, Migs. a bit thick this afternoon. Just reread the thread and see you bet on 11th last season and 13th this.  Got it now . Doh.Hope that you are right!!!!

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its fine. I bet with mr fred (i don''t know if your allowed to use the names on here like the footy streams). Although I only bet small money - 50p to a £1 every week, I normally bet on the tennis as its my favourite sport. After I have gained quite a bit from the original £10 I started with in my pot (£5 of that i think they give you at the start) , I put £20 aside every season (unless I''m not sure, I don''t just bet for the sake of it) and see how it goes. The only reason why I put the big (for me) bet on was because the new manager in chris Hughton, he was my first choice. Perhaps thats the reason why I''ve still wanted him ''in'' all this time, because he won me a hell of a lot of money for me. I have the same confidence this year, but I guess it is luck. I wouldn''t say its a fools game.....although I probably will when I see us finish 14th or 12th!

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My god this is worse than M O D punditry,thought I had time on my hands but this must be from someone inside.You should have done SKY super six,you would have paid for your freedom by now.When do you get out?

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Was tempted to reply with a yawn and a middle finger... But ya did make me laugh so....

Cheers for the vote of confidence but my accuracy proves i''m not very likely to win the jackpot.

I could claim I work on things like this inbetween 12 hour shifts... Or even during work if I did the type of job that involves not doing a lot.... I could even claim that I have a large group of like minded friends and we work on this together... I could even claim that I manage things like this on top of work and an outgoing social life....

But...

Truth is: I find getting into little projects like this offers up a distraction from the shite that is life.... Your point is?

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Proud of you Rodney,love to go for a beer with you if you had the time.You should be on M O D and it would last 3 hrs with no highlights.

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[quote user="swindoncanary"][quote user="mrs miggins"]will you marry me?[/quote]Mrs Miggins wouldn''t that be bigamy ? [/quote]

Go to India?

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