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MancCanary

What's the point of Predictions?

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Although sometimes interesting to read, I don''t think there''s much point in these predictions threads. We see upsets and surprises every week - so how can anyone expect to make an accurate prediction of where all the teams will end up at 5pm on the last day? The amount of factors alone in just one team''s results, plus the fact that the equally unpredictable results of all the other teams affects each other''s placings means that it''s surely a waste of time. Sorry to the people who clearly enjoy making them, but I really think it''s a bit pointless.

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Perhaps some people are so fragile, that they desperately need something to cling to?Or maybe its just a bit of fun, take your pick.

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Completely agree MC, but then I don''t the attraction of throwing money away, sorry, betting, on football either.

Each to their own.

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[quote user="Hairy Canary"]That''s the biggest example of the pot calling the kettle black that''s been on here for some time Houston.[/quote][:D]

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[quote user="Houston Canary"]MancC, your last sentence answers your title question, making this thread pointless.

Well done trying to be superior and ending up looking like a clown.[/quote]

Houston, I''m sorry if I''ve offended you but I really wasn''t trying to be superior. I just said I don''t get it. If you''re offended, apologies, but I don''t feel superior over anyone on here except the numpties who can''t spell the manager''s name but constantly call for his head, with no other argument than "houghton out".

The statisticians can do what they like, and I said I know it must be satisfactory and enjoyable to crunch the numbers and make the predictions, but ultimately, as I said - it is a bit of a thankless/pointless task due to the unpredictability of football. I don''t think that makes me a clown, or the makes the people who do it inferior to me.

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A conversation with you must be a barrel of laughs....

Do you think we''ll beat Villa?

Can''t say... Predictions are pointless.

Oh... Ok... So do you think we will survive?

Dont know.... Not gonna stick my neck out.

Fair enough... Got any plans for next week?

Dont make plans... Never know what might come up.

;-)

But seriously... I''m all for "each to their own" but cant understand the point of this post... How do you think us that enjoy the needless and thankless task of making predictions will read it? You started a thread just to say that because the likelihood of getting it spot on is next to none... We''re wasting our time and are a bit silly....

For starters: anyone who makes predictions and expects them to be right without doubt is frankly moronic and deserves to be ribbed for it. Think you''ll find most people make predictions for either fun or just to see how sharp their guessing prowess is...

More to the point: there''s careers based on making predictions. If not for predictions in science... We''d never learn anything new because there''d be no such thing as an unexpected result. So to answer your title: largely no purpose beyond enjoyment for the person making them, but they can also be very useful indeed.

Take my predictions for example.... I made them just to see IF I THOUGHT we could survive even if we lost last 5 games... I thought "but it can go in any number of other ways" was a given.... The result just means I have a platform to measure minimum form to match that target. I had us finishing 13th.... So how I''d love to end up with as close to spot on as possible...

I think I might start a thread called "what''s the point in watching soaps?" They''re not real people. All it is is a negative ball of lies, cheats and murderers. Hold on.... Perhaps I shouldn''t? Some people enjoy watching soaps

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Whats the point of life?
Nothing wrong at all in predictions. People make predictions in all walks of life.
People aren''t predicting a football result saying that WILL BE the result. They are just making a prediction so they can claim credit when it happens. What is pointless is moaning about making predictions.
I think you have taken the notion of predicting and have taken it way way out of context and taken it too far. Its a bit of fun. Like football.

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Im not personally offended, ManC, but to be critical of people having a little harmless fun seems pointlessly mean spirited. Why do we support Norwich, watch Coronation Street, wear funny t-shirts, or sit on a park bench? They''re all as pointless as making score predictions and only achieve making us enjoy life a bit more.

Hairy Twuntnary, care to clarify with an example? It might be a little pointless fun to do so, and you won''t look like such a dork if you do so, but what good would that do?

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I could never predict us to lose a match - its not in me to be able to do that  - but some people always predict that we will lose - the theory presumably being that always think the worst will happen then you will feel better when the opposite happens.  

It used to annoy me intensely that so many people would predict us to lose a match - not that I think we are going to win every match, because we obviously won''t do that - but predicting the outcome of the next match is to me just saying what I would like to happen  - like Sunday 3-0 to Norwich - but I am realistic to know that probably won''t happen.  

So if predicting a score is saying what you would like to happen, then how could you predict us to lose?   I suppose those predicting losses are just people saying what they fear will happen..........

Perhaps we need three prediction threads per match.  One for people who are saying what they would like to happen - win 6-0One where people can express their fears - lose 6-0One where people can say what they think will happen - 1- 0, 0-1, 1-1, etc which in the end, is much more likely.

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You clearly need help understanding the meaning of predictions...

A prediction is what you think will happen. Sometimes hopes and fears can influence... But a prediction is all things considered.

If I based the rest of the seasons on what I hope: i''d have us finishing top.... Based on fears, we''d be bottom.... Such is the nature of hopes and fears....

Hope that helps

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It''s for the warm, fuzzy feeling of satisfaction when you get it right! No more, no less. Unless there''s money involved, of course; in which case it''s for financial gain.

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Come on now houston... That''s in danger of taking it down pedantic roads ;-)

Over the last 4 games... My only correct one for us was the West Ham game... It didn''t feel good that we lost... But I did think "well... At least it''s not a shock to my system... Like the Cardiff game was :-)

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LOL, the donkey from Hicksville, USA. No matter how much you say ''we'', ''us'' & ''our'', you never were, have been or will be one of us.

BTW MancCanary, there is never a need to apologise to that piece of work. Unfortunately he just never seems to go away.

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Houston - Example of you being superior as requested.

MancC, your last sentence answers your title question, making this thread pointless.

Well done trying to be superior and ending up looking like a clown.

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RodneyTrottersFC - That''s a very reasoned and good reply, and I have to say I see what you mean. The whole seeing if you''re right when it''s all over thing is appealing, and we all like to be right! Also good point about predictions in science etc.

I think I should''ve been more specific with my initial post and possibly a little less critical! There are clearly 2 ways of looking at prediction-making. Having thought about it more, I think the things I dislike most are the computer-generated score/season predictors that people use, and then post the results of. I can see the satisfaction of getting your own guesses right - but when a computer has come up with it all based on a series of factors and possibilities, I think that is a bit pointless.

And to specify to anyone who''s confused by my definition of predictions - I don''t mean short term ones like the jokey ones Rodney has put at the top of his post obviously :) It''s the deeply complex, mathematical ones that predict the next 20 games etc. But obviously I do now see the attraction for the creators of such beasts!

PS lets not let at least this one thread descend into in-fighting.. everyone chill out! (I''m not addressing this to anyone who''s replied directly to me, to be clear!)

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Well thank you... I do try :-)

I have to agree (being a realist) that all that matters is how we actually do... And form and surprise results does make ANY prediction err... Loose ... But if you can make your prediction on as much evidence as possible, then that''s surely better than flipping a coin and just attatching an initial gut feeling?

I think having the personal touch on predictions is better than computer generated ones... However, if a super computer has crunched all stats possible and throws us up as 6th least likely to get relegated.... Along with a big pinch of salt, I''d take a little hope from that :-)

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I know what you mean - it''s nice to read if someone or something (ie a computer) has predicted city to do well/survive. But the computer generated ones - what about injuries etc? There''s no mathematical algorithm to determine if your £20m goal machine striker is going to get hacked down and miss the whole season with a cruciate knee ligament injury - massively reducing your goals scored. And they can''t just put a chaos-based random factor in there for it to represent the randomness of it happening in real life - because every time you run the predictor it would give a hugely different result!

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Me and my workmates do the weekly prem predictions with big prizes at stake...a whole £1 in and the winning pot can sometimes reach £8 or £9. :)

Joking aside its the pride that''s at stake along with bragging rights. Oh, that and the lowest points scorer having to make the tea all day/put bins out/wash up.

It breaks the week up, so no OP, not pointless IMO.

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Indeed it''s not pointless and it is fun. You can also get on Rays Funds every week and have fun whilst raising money for charity. £450 so far this season for the CSF[:)]

 

 

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I think you''re still looking at predictions all the wrong way mate...

No matter how smart a computer is... They will never be able to say what WILL happen.

Any (serious) prediction is made on whatever data is available... They are not claiming to be anyway near what will be.... In people like me''s case: just a bit of fun... A yardstick on not only my accuracy, but also how on course to survival we are going on this ONE scenario. In the computer''s case: nothing more than an interesting read... A crunch of stats and numbers to pass the time... It''s up to each own person how much they take from it.

The beautiful thing about football predictions, when looking at a set of many predictions (150 in my case lol), is you can be right after being mostly wrong..... Take us for example.... 1 out of 4 correct results but only 1 point off for points tally... And after 50 games are played... I had us 11th on 30 points.... After Sunday, we COULD be 11th on 31 points...

Making predictions is an art form ;-)

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Thanks for the clarification, MancC. I do agree the long range computer generated predictions are pointless. I originally thought you were downplaying the light-hearted weekly ones by fans, and too bad for ELFIN John, there seem to be plenty of people like me who made the same conclusion and agreed with my take.

Hairy, to each his own, but I don''t think my original post gave anyindication of me saying I''m superior.

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