Survival by statistics

[Moosheep 0]

We all know that there are lies, damn lies and statistics...so what statistical proof would you use to demonstrate survival/relegation. To kick off I am going to call upon Hughton''s Norwich managerial record to prove that we will attain the magical 40pts needed to ensure Premiership survival.Hughton''s Norwich recordPlayed 70Won 21 (30%)Draw 20 (29%)Loss 29 (41%)We have 17 games left which, given that record, equates to 5 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses, a total of 20pts...40pts for the season and survival! So, whether you think we will survive or be relegated, I challenge you to back up your arguments with statistical proof.....however tenuous!Moo

[lowlyfendweller 0]

Optimism... I forgot what out looked like.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

How does that record look over the last 12 months?

[E I E I E I O 0]

Because your stats include the miracle 10 game run from last season! Take the other 60 games and we have been complete and utter Sh**!!Therefore there is 6 out of 7 chance that the results will follow that suit. Therefore we will get nowhere near 40 points!

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

How does it look for this season so far?Let me guess, when you take a look at the win / draw / loss ratio combined with goal difference, when compared to others in the league, we''d be exactly 15th.I only care about the next run of games. I hope it can be turned around. I''m hopeful, but not overly optimistic.

[ricardo 7,345]

Won''t need 40 points

[Bill 1,788]

never understood this nonsense about 40 pointsalmost every season has seen teams survive with less than 40 pointsand has seen teams relegated with 40 points

[Moosheep 0]

I''m not sure people are quite understanding the spirit of this thread....but anyway, to answer the question..Using only Hughton''s 2013/14 stats :-P 21W 5 (24%)D 5 (24%)L 11 (52%)  Therefore with 17 games to go the statistics say 4 wins (12 pts), 4 draws (4pts) and 9 losses....so 36pts in total. Enough for survival?Moo

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Moosheep"]I''m not sure people are quite understanding the spirit of this thread....but anyway, to answer the question..Using only Hughton''s 2013/14 stats :-P 21W 5 (24%)D 5 (24%)L 11 (52%)  Therefore with 17 games to go the statistics say 4 wins (12 pts), 4 draws (4pts) and 9 losses....so 36pts in total. Enough for survival?Moo [/quote]I don''t think you understood the point of my post.Here are the same 2013/14 statistics, but presented and broken down in a much more readable from.

[Salopian 1]

There are so many other things which change year to year that mere statistics prove very little except outcomes.

I felt sorry for Hughton when Hooper was injured pre-season, and RvW a few weeks later, and then eventually Tettey and now Howson. All this when he was trying to weld six or seven new players into the side.

Sometimes it matters when you play particular other clubs. Are they on a run, have they been unsettled by long-term injuries, etc.

I thin that the last 10 games give a good clue. Apart from the mini good run in December, our performances and results have been pretty dire. At times the team seems uninterested and uncommitted. There is something wrong in team selection, tactics and motivation, and this has happened slowly, and over several games. I think that this best defines a manager.

[The Butler 0]

[quote user="Moosheep"]I''m not sure people are quite understanding the spirit of this thread....but anyway, to answer the question..

Using only Hughton''s 2013/14 stats :-

P 21
W 5 (24%)
D 5 (24%)
L 11 (52%) 

Therefore with 17 games to go the statistics say 4 wins (12 pts), 4 draws (4pts) and 9 losses....so 36pts in total. Enough for survival?

Moo
[/quote]

The last 5 games of the season certainly look like losses.

That means we are only going to lose 4 of our next 12 .

I feel so much happier knowing that piece of data.

Must go now as the essential part of my cooked breakfast just flew over[:O]

[Bill 1,788]

you could have simply divided the current total of pointsby games playedthen multiplied that figure by 38that''s what everyone else does

then maybe do the same for the other clubs that should give you your answer

presuming it is solely about past formwhich it never is

[ricardo 7,345]

The future will look a lot like the past.

Very little will change on the run in for most teams. Teams dropping like a stone sometimes happens but a lot less than often than people think.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Salopian"]There are so many other things which change year to year that mere statistics prove very little except outcomes.

I felt sorry for Hughton when Hooper was injured pre-season, and RvW a few weeks later, and then eventually Tettey and now Howson. All this when he was trying to weld six or seven new players into the side.

Sometimes it matters when you play particular other clubs. Are they on a run, have they been unsettled by long-term injuries, etc.

I thin that the last 10 games give a good clue. Apart from the mini good run in December, our performances and results have been pretty dire. At times the team seems uninterested and uncommitted. There is something wrong in team selection, tactics and motivation, and this has happened slowly, and over several games. I think that this best defines a manager.[/quote]So we have to also exclude any mini good runs when evaluating form, as well as the now infamous "10 game run"?I''m no great Hughton fans these days, but if you exclude every win, he''s going to look a lot worse than he is.

[Moosheep 0]

The point is that statistics can prove pretty much anything. I wasn''t expecting people to pick holes in my analysis...I am well aware that such statistics are complete bollocks. It was meant to be a light hearted thread where people could be a bit imaginative and come up with their own stats to ''prove'' whatever they felt like proving. Maybe I was being optimistic given that it is a Friday afternoon and everyone is stressing about all things NCFC.Moo

[Moosheep 0]

In an attempt to flog this particular dead horse......Last 17 games of last seasonP 17W 4 (24%)D 7 (41%)L 6 (35%)Gives.....39pts. That excludes the ''miracle 10 game run''. However, look at the last 17 league games played we get....P 17W 4 (24%)D 4 (24%)L 9  (53%)That''s 36pts again, which I think will be touch and go.I obviously have too much time on my hands this afternoon.Moo

 

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="The Butler"]

[quote user="Moosheep"]I''m not sure people are quite understanding the spirit of this thread....but anyway, to answer the question..Using only Hughton''s 2013/14 stats :-P 21W 5 (24%)D 5 (24%)L 11 (52%)  Therefore with 17 games to go the statistics say 4 wins (12 pts), 4 draws (4pts) and 9 losses....so 36pts in total. Enough for survival?Moo [/quote]

The last 5 games of the season certainly look like losses.

That means we are only going to lose 4 of our next 12 .

I feel so much happier knowing that piece of data.

Must go now as the essential part of my cooked breakfast just flew over[:O]

[/quote]

 

I guess they''d be a lot more winnable if they were spaced out over the next four months though....

 

And I guess some teams have more winnable games if these games don''t come all at once.........

 

I just wish they''d sort the fixture list out so that everyone plays the same teams as eachother...

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

but you forget young master nutty that some of those teams will have little to play for so they will be off to the beach as were Fulham and Charlton in previous end of seasons games

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Only if it''s sunny. West Brom were up and down off that beach like whores drawers last season...[H] [ip][li][st][um]

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

I was concerned watching the Man City game that the tide might have came in, through the channels of course

[nutty nigel 7,509]

It''s alright for you. I reckon I''ve got the lowest seat in the stadium. If the tide comes in tomorrow I''ll be stuffed..

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

It''s alright for you. I reckon I''ve got the lowest seat in the stadium. If the tide comes in tomorrow I''ll be stuffed..

 

 

[/quote]are your legs that short ?

ps I don''t think games are supposed to be played on the beach until May

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="City1st"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

It''s alright for you. I reckon I''ve got the lowest seat in the stadium. If the tide comes in tomorrow I''ll be stuffed..

 

 

[/quote]are your legs that short ?

ps I don''t think games are supposed to be played on the beach until May

[/quote]

 

They''re maybe not short however paddling is an extreme sport for me!! But remember man cannot discover new oceans if he is afraid to lose sight of the shore...

 

West Brom officially donned their flipflops on Christmas Day last season[ip]

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

" paddling is an extreme sport for me!! "more so if you ever wear a kilt

[The Butler 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="The Butler"]

[quote user="Moosheep"]I''m not sure people are quite understanding the spirit of this thread....but anyway, to answer the question..

Using only Hughton''s 2013/14 stats :-

P 21
W 5 (24%)
D 5 (24%)
L 11 (52%) 

Therefore with 17 games to go the statistics say 4 wins (12 pts), 4 draws (4pts) and 9 losses....so 36pts in total. Enough for survival?

Moo
[/quote]

The last 5 games of the season certainly look like losses.

That means we are only going to lose 4 of our next 12 .

I feel so much happier knowing that piece of data.

Must go now as the essential part of my cooked breakfast just flew over[:O]

[/quote]

 

I guess they''d be a lot more winnable if they were spaced out over the next four months though....

 

And I guess some teams have more winnable games if these games don''t come all at once.........

 

I just wish they''d sort the fixture list out so that everyone plays the same teams as eachother...

 

 

[/quote]

eh?

Didn''t understand any of that Nutty

Been snorting sanilav again[:D]

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Just think if they were the next five games...

Been totally off the sanilav for 9 months now...

[The Butler 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]Just think if they were the next five games... Been totally off the sanilav for 9 months now...[/quote]

If you mean the last five were the next five instead...then I think we would be so demoralised that relegation would be nailed on OR

A new manager might change it, though I think that far adrift would be beyond anyone.

CH has just got to do what he hasn''t yet this season and go on a winning run

You are the betting man...what odds would you give on that scenario

Did you wean yourself of it by mainbending toilet duc?[li]

[nutty nigel 7,509]

I just think that the chances of us getting points from those fixtures are the same whether they''re the next five, the last five or scattered over the remainder of the season.

As a betting man I''ll have a wager with you that we don''t lose them all. Up for it?

I still think you''re clean round the bend...