pablofarmer 0 Posted January 20, 2014 Sorry cant do links but if someone can please do!I found this interesting though.http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/six-things-we-learnt-from-the-premier-league-manchester-united-lack-belief-under-david-moyes-norwich-remain-a-formidable-bet-capital-gains-for-newcastle-southampton-anniversary-puncheons-goal-does-the-talking-solskjaer-needs-to-find-home-comfort-9070732.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wiz 0 Posted January 20, 2014 http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/six-things-we-learnt-from-the-premier-league-manchester-united-lack-belief-under-david-moyes-norwich-remain-a-formidable-bet-capital-gains-for-newcastle-southampton-anniversary-puncheons-goal-does-the-talking-solskjaer-needs-to-find-home-comfort-9070732.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BOO 0 Posted January 20, 2014 It''s true and it''s what will keep us up,, would be good get a couple of big scalps before the end of the season though! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 747 Posted January 20, 2014 I think that''s why the Fulham result(s) saw a big backlash. If we aren''t taking points from teams like Fulham then we will be struggling. Thankfully, the Hull game showed that Fulham was just a blip (let''s not talk about the cup) and perhaps we shouldn''t all have been as worried as we were. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nuff Said 5,082 Posted January 20, 2014 Without looking at the stats, and hence opening myself up to looking a bit of a tw*t, wasn''t last season the other way round? That is, we struggled against teams around us, but overperformed against those at the top of the league. Why the change? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pablofarmer 0 Posted January 20, 2014 I don''t know Nuff Said, but it definitely felt that way! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 747 Posted January 20, 2014 Well, obviously teams move position, so we could have played them when they were top or bottom half and they then changed, but.....last season we took 1.17 pts per game against the final 9 teams below us. 21 points from 18 games. Only 4 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses.Against the 10 sides who finished in the top half, we took 1.2 points. 24 points from 20 games. 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses.This season, against sides who are CURRENTLY in the bottom half (not when we played them - so different to the stat in the article, but given that I can''t see the top and bottom halves changing much between now and the end of the season it should work out about the same)....We have played 11 games against teams currently in the bottom half and 11 against teams currently in the top half.Against the top half, only 0.36 points a game! 9 losses, 1 win (Southampton) and 1 draw (Everton).Against the bottom half - 1.7 points. 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 747 Posted January 20, 2014 To add to that, if we take 1.7 points per game from our remaining 7 fixtures against bottom half opposition, and 0.36 points per game from our remaining 9 fixtures against top half opposition, we will pick up 15.14 points.Which will leave us on 38 (.14!) points. I think that will be more than enough this season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 747 Posted January 20, 2014 However, (yes, I''m bored), if you adapt it to include Villa as a bottom 11 who are all "in amongst" us and a top 9, rather than comparing top and bottom halves,we end up having taken 1.58 points per game from our relegation rivals and 0.4 from the top half.So from our remaining 6 games against relegation rivals, we''d take 9.48 points, and from the remaining 8 against top 9 opponents, we''d take 3.24 points.That only equals 12.68 points. Which is 35 (maybe 36) points. That''s only two points, but could quite feasibly be the difference between comfort and relegation this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cornish sam 940 Posted January 20, 2014 [quote user="Aggy"]However, (yes, I''m bored), if you adapt it to include Villa as a bottom 11 who are all "in amongst" us and a top 9, rather than comparing top and bottom halves, we end up having taken 1.58 points per game from our relegation rivals and 0.4 from the top half. So from our remaining 6 games against relegation rivals, we''d take 9.48 points, and from the remaining 8 against top 9 opponents, we''d take 3.24 points. That only equals 12.68 points. Which is 35 (maybe 36) points. That''s only two points, but could quite feasibly be the difference between comfort and relegation this year.[/quote] You''re that bored that you forget about two games? I''ve not looked at the fixtures but moving Villa from top half to relegation half doesn''t mean that we play one game less against both top half and relegation half, assuming your first break down of fixtures was correct then it would be 8 games against relegation rivals @1.58ppg = 12.64 + 8 games against top half @ 0.4 = 3.24 giving a grand total of 15.88 points, which would give us 38 or 39 points and still safe (probably) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 747 Posted January 20, 2014 Yep, you''re correct Sam. Took one off both accidentally! 8 at 0.4 = 3.2.To tie it back into the questions asked above - even if my maths is slightly out (probably is somewhere!), there is a clear difference between our top half vs bottom half results.Last season we had pretty consistent "mid table" form against both top and bottom half teams. This season, we''ve pretty much been in "European qualification" form against bottom half sides, and "worst points tally ever" form against the top!Obviously evens itself out and it''s the final points tally which matters, but does that difference say more about us, or the supposed ever widening gap between top and bottom prem sides? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
