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A Stat Angle On Who is Going To Drop.

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Each team listed below has a collection of teams remaining to play against.Each team in that collection have already gained a number of points and these points were added upto roughly evaluate the difficulty of their final run in.Of course the highest number of points means the more difficult their run in is and the lowest number is best meaning the easiest run in and consequently the best chance of survival.Based on the current positions and difficulty of run ins it looks like WEST HAM & SUNDERLAND are favorites to fallFULHAM & NORWICH & NORWICH have chances to take the last slot.[IMG]http://i41.tinypic.com/wh8ue.jpg[/IMG]http://i41.tinypic.com/wh8ue.jpg[IMG]http://i43.tinypic.com/x57wg.jpg[/IMG]http://i43.tinypic.com/x57wg.jpg[IMG]http://i43.tinypic.com/rh95zq.jpg[/IMG]http://i43.tinypic.com/rh95zq.jpg

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Presume you mean Fulham Norwich and Palace are favourites for the third spot, for what it''s worth,

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Whilst I appreciate you making the effort with this, it doesn''t always go with the stats.I tend not to let these things worry me.

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Your method doesn''t account for;* Home matches v''s Away matches.* Current number of points. (i.e. Cardiff are currently on 18 points, meaning they need to pickup 5 just to equal where we are. Yet, you rank them as the 9th most likely to go down based on them having slightly easier games? Why are you expecting them to do better int hose games? Just because a game is easier, doesn''t mean they''ll win it if they''re the worst team in the league.)* The table is fluid and changing week to week. You can do the same method in 2 weeks and pull a completely different set of results.I appreciate the effort, and the excel skills. Personally I don''t think we can come to any conclusions with those numbers other than that "some teams will have harder run ins than others", which we probably already knew. Maybe others think differently.

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Far less meaningful than you would imagine. A lot depends on whether your fixtures against these teams are home or away. Take Hull for instance, of their 8 remaining away games 6 are going to be relegation battles on hostile territory. Not an easy prospect to face late in the season. Of their 8 remaining home games 6 are against teams in the top 9, again not great.Sunderland''s home games are potentially productive but on their travels, apart from Carrow Rd they have to visit seven of the top eight!

Have a look on Statto Index for yourselves. They all look very much of a muchness to me.

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So determined to prove Norwich will be relegated you tried to relegate us twice.

Not that this research had an agenda of anything.

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* Current number of points. (i.e. Cardiff are currently on 18 points,

meaning they need to pickup 5 just to equal where we are. Yet, you rank

them as the 9th most likely to go down based on them having slightly

easier games?............................................For sure the table is not so well explained (apologies to all) however I did not rank them (Cardiff) the 9th most likely to go down only 9th place in the easiest games to play out of the teams selected to compare.Also apart from the casual personal opinion at the end I merely presented the current state of affairs in order to attract a general opinion or evaluation.The table does not indicate or determine at all those most likely to stay up or go down only a picture of what lies ahead of us and the rest is up to each of us to interpret it as she/he sees it.Sure all stats must by their very nature be incomplete, flawed and open to refutation nevertheless I thought it might interesting be to paint a little pic of where we are, nothing more. N.B.  The FA will be using stats to decide the fate of each team at the end of season and they are irrefutable.

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[quote user="Getalife"] The table does not indicate or determine at all those most likely to stay up or go down.....[/quote][quote user="Getalife"] Based on the current positions and difficulty of run ins it looks like WEST HAM & SUNDERLAND are favorites to fallFULHAM & NORWICH & NORWICH have chances to take the last slot. [/quote]Indeed.

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Far less meaningful than you would imagine. A lot depends on whether

your fixtures against these teams are home or away. Take Hull for

instance, of their 8 remaining away games 6 are going to be relegation

battles on hostile territory. Not an easy prospect to face late in the

season. Of their 8 remaining home games 6 are against teams in the top

9, again not great.Sunderland''s home games are potentially

productive but on their travels, apart from Carrow Rd they have to visit

seven of the top eight!..................All valid points I believe.My view on this is that the equation to evaluate a definitive answer on up or down is simply unobtainable. The infinite number of complex  factors we might include -with the possibility  they might cancel each other out- does not improve the simple assessment I present here it would only complicate the result and dress it up to look more accurate than what is is. There is room however to take a simple look at what we do factually know currently and that is all I have attempted to display.

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[quote user="Getalife"]Far less meaningful than you would imagine. A lot depends on whether

your fixtures against these teams are home or away. Take Hull for

instance, of their 8 remaining away games 6 are going to be relegation

battles on hostile territory. Not an easy prospect to face late in the

season. Of their 8 remaining home games 6 are against teams in the top

9, again not great.Sunderland''s home games are potentially

productive but on their travels, apart from Carrow Rd they have to visit

seven of the top eight!..................All valid points I believe.My view on this is that the equation to evaluate a definitive answer on up or down is simply unobtainable. The infinite number of complex  factors we might include -with the possibility  they might cancel each other out- does not improve the simple assessment I present here it would only complicate the result and dress it up to look more accurate than what is is. There is room however to take a simple look at what we do factually know currently and that is all I have attempted to display.[/quote]What we do know currently is that 5 of the bottom 6 have been in this group since game 12 and most are falling further behind. We also know from looking at the stats over the whole history of the Premier League that this is unlikely to change. I have tried looking at predictions from several angles and have found this method far superior to most.We also know that with 16 games to go and needing more than one and a quarter points a game to get out of trouble is an almost impossible task.

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What we do know currently is that 5 of the bottom 6 have been in this group since game 12 and most are falling further behind.We also know from looking at the stats over the whole history of the Premier League that this is unlikely to change. I have tried looking at predictions from several angles and have found this method far superior to most.We also know that with 16 games to go and needing more than one and a quarter points a game to get out of trouble is an almost impossible task............................................................................................Well Ricardo I did not know that and am not about to challenge your findings, I respect  your assessment very much . I am interested to know how your research relates to teams specifically , who is most likely to drop and does history bode well for us?Reading your findings suggests to me that deep analysis gets nowhere as historically weaker teams are sorted by now and little will change.However so squeezed that only 6 Points separate the bottom 11 teams at this stage of the season, is this common when  looking at the stats over the whole history of the Premier League. Would you gauge the modern Premier League using its ancient history as a  yardstick?I would like to reiterate that the principle I worked on is oversimplified but I hope that it is easy to follow without to much pain in the brain and might be interesting to those of us who do not delve so deeply as your good-self.Overall I believe we are in tune, certainly I have learned  from this thread and  that makes it worthwhile for me.[:D]

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I tried to highlight last week that it''s not just league games that count. Obviously only league games collect points. However some of our rivals for the bottom three places have FA Cup, League games and Europa League games (Swansea).

Sunderland and West Ham have both progressed to semi-finals, and other teams will get further in FA Cup with distractions to the league.

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It is interesting that so many on here have pointed at the last 4 games as a major negative for us where as using this method shows that others have a harder run in (at this point in time anyway).

Agree with other comments that home and away fixtures need to be calculated separately and an adjustment made for current points before any predictions can be made.

Always enjoy looking at this sort of thing never-the-less

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