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Jim Smith

Looking at the fixtures remaining for various teams

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A few points of interest:

Fulham''s last 5 games are all possible relegation 6 pointers from which they will probably fancy their chances of picking up a decent haul of points if they need them:

Villa (a) (although Villa look like edging away)

Norwich (h)

Hull (h)

Stoke (a)

Palace (h)

Cardiff on the face of it have quite a few games at home they will be targeting for 3 points namely:

Us

Villa

Hull

Fulham

Palace

Stoke

Sunder the following at home in their remaining fixtures but they do have extremely difficult looking away fixtures:

Hull

WBA

Palace

West Ham

Everton

Cardiff

Looking at the fixtures remaining I also feel Hull are potentially the ones most likely to sink like a stone. They cannot buy an away win and have to go away to quite a few relegation rivals whilst their home games remaining are quite tricky.

All of which does not necessarily mean a great deal as there will be unexpected results and with so many teams in the relegation mix relegation threatened teams will be taking points off each other left right and centre but you can see Cardiff and Sunderland picking up 3 or 4 home wins each and if there is going to be a "great escape" in the last month of the season then Fulham perhaps the most likely candidates. It also emphasises how little room for error we have in terms of our remaining winnable home games, the need to have a proper cushion over the likes of Fulham going into those last few games and the fact that it is absolutely paramount that we do not lose at Cardiff or West Ham.

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Sorry Fulham also have to go to Spurs after they play us.

Still over the last 5 games not inconceivable hat they could gain 7-9 points on us.

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Good post, interesting stats. Hull do seem to struggle away. Palace also have a harder 2nd half of the season, In that most of their points have come from their home games against the teams around them. Now they have to play all the unbeatable sides at home, and their relegation rivals will be looking for revenge on their travels. Wouldn''t be surprised if it''s the 3 that came up, going back down. Bookies have us at about 4/1 so i''m not going to panic just yet.

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[quote user="Winning 25"]Good post, interesting stats. Hull do seem to struggle away. Palace also have a harder 2nd half of the season, In that most of their points have come from their home games against the teams around them. Now they have to play all the unbeatable sides at home, and their relegation rivals will be looking for revenge on their travels. Wouldn''t be surprised if it''s the 3 that came up, going back down. Bookies have us at about 4/1 so i''m not going to panic just yet.[/quote]

I''m not panicking but I do think that when people say what are you worried about we are 12th it ignores the fact that the really key thing we need to do is get slight ahead of the curve points wise because whilst its not impossible that we will win one of our last 5 games, all indicators available at present suggest we won;t and if we still only have a 5 point cushion over the likes of Fulham going into those games then the chances are that they will overhaul us.

Of course they are only one of several relegation rivals but i really do feel that we need to have a cushion of at least 7-9 points over at least 4 or 5 teams going into those games otherwise we are in real trouble.

I tend to agree with you I think it could still end up being the 3 that came up that go down.

The best way to calm nerves would be to win on Saturday. Not only will that be a huge blow to Cardiff but will mean the Man City game has less pressure on it and we can also go to West Ham more relaxed. If we lose at Cardiff however things start to look pretty grim. Tough one for Hughton as I think playing for a point there will be asking for trouble (OGS will have them really pumped up) but then it really is a "must not lose" fixture.

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Interesting thread, Jim. Totally agree about Hull, as i said last night they could be this season''s Blackpool. The weird thing is, and i may be alone in this, but actually being in a possible relegation battle makes for a more interesting season than say staying in 10th all season. We have something to play for, and because the stakes are high, in a perverse way it''s quite exciting!. Still confident we''ll stay up but think we''ll need 4 points min from Cardiff and West Ham i think to get ourselves into a truly healthier position whilst keeping their points tally down.

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[quote user="Hannibal II"]Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal are our last 4 fixture how many points you think we will get?[/quote]

1 or 2 probably at best although if the title/top 4 is decided by then we could be the beneficiaries of teams being not that up for it or world cup bound players not wanting to over exert themselves.

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[quote user="Hannibal II"]Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal are our last 4 fixture how many points you think we will get?[/quote]On the face of it we''ll be lucky to get none but football doesn''t work like that of course. There''s always an upset just around the corner.Please God we won''t need any but three absolute tops.

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I don''t think anybody seriously believes we''ll get zero points because they won''t take the pepsi challenge.

 

However I''ll offer it again. If we get zero points I''ll donate another £10 to the CSF but only if someone who thinks we''ll get zero points matches that with £10 and a commitment to Rays Funds if we pick up any points.

 

 

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Everyone focuses on the last 4 games but the reality is through march and early april we could pick up points from every game. There is not one where there would be a shock if we got at least a point. Hardest game in that run is Southampton away. We could and should be 9 points ahead of the curve then. If we are 6 now, then all we need to do is match the points of the others down the bottom and win one more than them in that run. Thats more than doable.

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