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The Young One

Target 40pts how this will be achieved

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Looking at the remaining fixtures and our current tally of 23pts, lets take a look at how eary/hard it will be to acheive 40pts.That''s the minimum aim for us to still be in the premiership next year.The realistic must win games areStoke (H), Sunderland (H) West Brom (H)  = 9pts  Taking us to 32ptswe then need 8pts from the remaining 13games.The games which we can''t be expected to draw let alone win areMan City (H) Liverpool (H)  Man Utd (A) Chelsea (A) Arsenal (H)Leaving  Newcastle (H)  Cardiff (A) West ham (A) Tottenham (H)  Villa (A) Southampton (A) Swansea(A) Fulham (A) to get 8pts from

                           

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Plus, as has been mentioned, the teams at the bottom will still have to play the likes of Man C, Aresenal etc.

At least the win over Hull puts clear sight between us an the teams at the bootom, so there''s more pressure on them to get extra points to overhaul us and others!

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There are bound to be a glut of people coming onto this thread saying "we won''t need 40 pts....37 will be enough". Well, my take on this is quite simple. It may well be that 37 will be OK, but , frankly, I''d rather not put it to the test . Also, it smacks of setting the bar low; something that has been all too evident in this club during Hughton''s reign. We are perfectly capable of getting another 17 pts this season. It''s only 5 wins and two draws, for God''s sake (or 4 and 5) . If we cannot achieve that modest target, then tbh we deserve to go down or at the very least have a ''too close for comfort'' experience.

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Right on cue Rickyyyyyyyyyyy the glutmaster[;)]

 

I prefer to look at it this way - The current bottom three have pick up at least 6 more points than we do from winnable games if we''re writing off the others.

 

 

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I largely agree Reggie. 37 will be enough but 40 should be achievable. This constant writing off of the last four games is just lazy thinking. We got points from those fixtures in the last two seasons and ought to expect something this season too. Nobody predicted that we would get anything from Man City last May but we did and other freak results will occur at the end of this season too.

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]There are bound to be a glut of people coming onto this thread saying "we won''t need 40 pts....37 will be enough". Well, my take on this is quite simple. It may well be that 37 will be OK, but , frankly, I''d rather not put it to the test . Also, it smacks of setting the bar low; something that has been all too evident in this club during Hughton''s reign. We are perfectly capable of getting another 17 pts this season. It''s only 5 wins and two draws, for God''s sake (or 4 and 5) . If we cannot achieve that modest target, then tbh we deserve to go down or at the very least have a ''too close for comfort'' experience.[/quote]Much easier to speculate where you think any of the bottom 3 will get 6 more points than us. We are indeed capable of getting another 17 points but then the bottom three would have to be looking at another 23 points from 16 games to get ahead. I don''t think that''s in any way credible 1.5 points a game somewhere between Southampton and Newcastle form.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]There are bound to be a glut of people coming onto this thread saying "we won''t need 40 pts....37 will be enough". Well, my take on this is quite simple. It may well be that 37 will be OK, but , frankly, I''d rather not put it to the test . Also, it smacks of setting the bar low; something that has been all too evident in this club during Hughton''s reign. We are perfectly capable of getting another 17 pts this season. It''s only 5 wins and two draws, for God''s sake (or 4 and 5) . If we cannot achieve that modest target, then tbh we deserve to go down or at the very least have a ''too close for comfort'' experience.[/quote]Much easier to speculate where you think any of the bottom 3 will get 6 more points than us. We are indeed capable of getting another 17 points but then the bottom three would have to be looking at another 23 points from 16 games to get ahead. I don''t think that''s in any way credible 1.5 points a game somewhere between Southampton and Newcastle form.[/quote]You may or may not be right.Candidly, I don''t much care what happens to other teams, whether they are bottom 3 or not. That''s what I was getting at when I said ''I''d rather not put it to the test'', Ricardo. All I''m confident of is , if Norwich City get another 17 pts (quite do-able) we will not go down.And I stand by my point re setting the bar low. Cambs alludes to it in is "lazy thinking" phrase. A culture of accepting underachievement has crept into this club and its fans during CH''s tenure. And we will not progress until it is swept out.

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The culture of accepting under achievement does not come from Chris Hughton or the players. It come from the typical doom laden view that we will get nothing from our games against sides in the top eight. A view that has absolutely nothing to back it up except the negative mind set of those who continually spout it.

 

 

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Nutty

 

I am not a negative person, just being realistic as to where we might get the required number of pts from, afterall the bookies will have us to lose , a win is just a bonus but can''t be counted on, past form shows us that.

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My prediction is 36 with points from :-

Newcastle - 1

Cardiff - 1

West Ham - 1

Villa - 1

Stoke - 3

Sunderland - 3

West Brom - 3

West Brom, West Ham, Cardiff, Fulham, Sunderland and Stoke all on less points.

Any wins from the other games will be a bonus, but I never expect us to win against top teams so write them off and don''t get excited either way.

Easily safe this year with some poor teams, however need to take into consideration Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City (Liverpool, Everton and Spurs to an extent) have not dropped as many points compared to other years.

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[quote user="The Young One"]

Nutty

 

I am not a negative person, just being realistic as to where we might get the required number of pts from, afterall the bookies will have us to lose , a win is just a bonus but can''t be counted on, past form shows us that.[/quote]

 

I know buddy. But I''ve never in my life predicted correctly our results from a set of six games let alone the rest of the season. So I find it easier to suggest how many points our form this season suggest we''ll get rather than continually trying to do something I''ve always failed at. Our form so far this season suggests we will get 40 points. That means the bottom three would have to get another 22/23 points from their remaing fixtures to come past us. Nothing from their form this season suggests to me that they are capable of doing it.

 

 

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Given the bottom 11 clubs are in the points range 18-24 after 22 games, it is simple realism to say the club that ends up in 18th place will probably have more like 35 points than 40.


I think we will probably end up at 40 points, give or take one or two. 

 

Also this whole thing about under-achievement I find strange.  If you look at the bottom 11 clubs, we''re currently close to the top of those 11 teams, and have spent most of the season above the middle of them.  I think most neutrals, looking at our squads and the others'', would say we''re above where they would expect us to be - and most people would expect us to be just above the bottom 3.  Which would count as over-achievement if anything.  We strenghthened our squad in the summer but everyone else had the extra money to spend too. 

 

The BBC were talking about us struggling this season - does that mean all the teams from Villa downwards are struggling ?

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The thing is, given that we''re only just over half way, everyone has got virtually the same run in. Nobody has got "only bottom half sides" or "only top sides" left, as there are still 16 games to go!

So if we''re unlikely to get up to 40 from our remaining games, it''s pretty safe to say that virtually every other side in the bottom half is also unlikely to get there, given that they''re all on similar points to us and have a similar run in. Just because we have a very hard last few games means nothing - everyone else has got the same sides to play, jsut at different times.

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40 points is rarely needed, it''s a mythical total.  I created a thread in our first season back in the PL where I looked at the average points for 18th place since the league went to 20 teams; to finish above the average you would need 37 points if I remember correctly.  In the vast majority of seasons 37 points would see you safe.

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We have never, ever won all of the games we were ''expected'' to and we we have always won the occasional game we didn''t ''expect'' to win (realistically or otherwise). It''s pointless trying to guess exactly where our points will come from. If any of us could do that accurately we''d win enough on the betting scene to upgrade the squad to challenge for Europe!

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Based on points returns from matches played to date, it is highly unlikely that the bottom 3 teams, whoever they are at the end of the season, will get 36 points.As the table stands from bottom upwards -Cardiff - 18 pts from 22 games need 18 pts more from 16 games (30% improvement needed))Sunderland - 18 pts from 22 games need 18 pts more from 16 games (30% improvement needed))West Ham - 18 pts from 22 games need 18 pts more from 16 games (30% improvement needed))Fulham - 19 pts from 22 games need 17 pts more from 16 games (20% improvement needed))Palace - 20 pts from 22 games need 16 pts more from 16 games (9% improvement needed))Swansea - 21 pts from 22 games need 15 pts more from 16 games WBA - 21 pts from 22 games need 15 pts more from 16 games (as things stand versus Everton at half time)Stoke - 22 pts from 22 games need 14 pts more from 16 gamesNorwich - 23 pts from 22 games need 13 pts more from 16 games (to end on 36 points we effectively need to get worse by 24%)If we get another 14 points & reach 37 points (difficult but not impossible) then I can''t see any 3 out of Cardiff, Sunderland, West Ham, Fulham or Palace getting the points they need to get 36 points. One of those Clubs could get to 36 points, 2 of them getting to 36 points is possible but unlikely but there is virtually no chance 3 of them getting to 36 points.And given that we''ve been mostly c-r-a-p so far in the 22 games we''ve played, realistically I can''t see us getting 24% worse in the 16 games remaining and finishing with 36 points.Therefore, 37 points does it for me.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The culture of accepting under achievement does not come from Chris Hughton or the players. It come from the typical doom laden view that we will get nothing from our games against sides in the top eight. A view that has absolutely nothing to back it up except the negative mind set of those who continually spout it.

 

 

[/quote]

Perhaps the 1 point from 9 games against the top 8 teams has something to do with it.

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"lets take a look at how eary/hard it will be to acheive 40pts.That''s the minimum aim for us to still be in the premiership next year."

utter drivelseason after season,, after season clubs stay up with less than 40 pointsour target is to achieve as many points as possible - as it ALWAYS has been

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[quote user="Dr Crafty Canary"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

The culture of accepting under achievement does not come from Chris Hughton or the players. It come from the typical doom laden view that we will get nothing from our games against sides in the top eight. A view that has absolutely nothing to back it up except the negative mind set of those who continually spout it.

 

 

[/quote] Perhaps the 1 point from 9 games against the top 8 teams has something to do with it.[/quote]

[Y]

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[quote user="TIL 1010"][quote user="Dr Crafty Canary"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

The culture of accepting under achievement does not come from Chris Hughton or the players. It come from the typical doom laden view that we will get nothing from our games against sides in the top eight. A view that has absolutely nothing to back it up except the negative mind set of those who continually spout it.

 

 

[/quote] Perhaps the 1 point from 9 games against the top 8 teams has something to do with it.[/quote]

[Y]

[/quote]

 

Or perhaps you two are part of it. Because the comment was accepting it and I haven''t seen anything from Chris Hughton or the players to suggest we accept it. But I''ll play along with you both. If 1 point from 9 games in under achievement how many would you deem acceptable?

 

 

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[quote user="Chelmsford Canary"]My prediction is 36 with points from :- Newcastle - 1 Cardiff - 1 West Ham - 1 Villa - 1 Stoke - 3 Sunderland - 3 West Brom - 3 West Brom, West Ham, Cardiff, Fulham, Sunderland and Stoke all on less points. Any wins from the other games will be a bonus, but I never expect us to win against top teams so write them off and don''t get excited either way. Easily safe this year with some poor teams, however need to take into consideration Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City (Liverpool, Everton and Spurs to an extent) have not dropped as many points compared to other years.[/quote]

 

This is quite realistic

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""But I''ve never in my life predicted correctly our results from a set of six games let alone the rest of the season. So I find it easier to suggest how many points our form this season suggest we''ll get rather than continually trying to do something I''ve always failed at.""

This is very defeatist attitude Nigel, see what 18 months under Hooton can do too a man!!!! :)

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I think we will haim enough points, but it won''t be pretty.

I can see wins at home to stoke, west brom and Sunderland as well as away at west ham and possibly Swansea or Cardiff.

Draws should be possible against Newcastle, villa.

I can see us achieving around 38/39 points to keep us safe.

But, it all depends on runs of form and picking up results against those around us. Which lets be fair, we have done ok in this season. Apart from games vs top 8 we have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 3.

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Looking at the form of teams below and around us, I''m willing to believe anything above 35 points will be enough for safety this year. It''s very tight and goal difference for some might be very important in the coming weeks.

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