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Ray

The Stats Prove We Are Already Safe - Don't they?

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To reach 40 points we, and the teams level with us and below us, need to average the following points per game;

1.0625 – NCFC, Hull & Stoke

1.1177 – Swansea & WBA

1.25 – Palace

1.3125 – Fulham

1.375 – West Ham, Cardiff & Sunderland.

Now let’s convert this to percentages, in other words how much better the teams around and below us need to perform over and above our level of performance to reach 40 points

0.00% - NCFC, Hull & Stoke

5.2% - Swansea & WBA

17.64% - Palace

23.53% Fulham

29.41% - West Ham, Cardiff & Swansea

Can’t see seven teams outperforming us to the required level to send us down, so stats say we are already safe?

Lies, damn lies and stats, eh!

Just throwing it out their boys and girls.

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We are far from already safe but as you say, if we perform for the remaining games as we have done so far then yes we should be fairly certain of being safe.The bottom three have 18 points from 22 games. Its a very tall order to expect any of them to get even 22 points from their remaining 16 games. They would have to improve their form quite dramatically to do so.

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not already safe, but in a strong position to not get relegated.

Its all in the players hands, still thinking a mid table finish (10-14) likely

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The difference though from past seasons - and the worry - is that all the current bottom 3 are on the same number of points. Most seasons by this point you''re only looking at two places because someone is as good as gone by now.  That isn''t the case this year so in effect there is an "extra" place to avoid.

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Surfbird,

I wondered if anyone would read the post in enough detail to spot the deliberate (yeah right) error.

Of course they may have done but said nothing.

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I think about 38 points will do it. Even if the bottom three double their total up to this point they''ll only have 36.

15 points required I reckon.

16 games left

5 wins

or

4 wins and 3 draws

 

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Yes its looking like a lower total is required this season, perhaps less than 38 even.......but we must be clear before the absolute nightmare end of season grouo of matches we have to play....unless of course they are all sunning themselves by then! 

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Doing the Premier League predictor didn''t really help out my worries.. That last group of games looks horrific too. Hope the home struggles against Fulham, Cardiff, Villa and Swansea don''t come back to haunt us. We really need something in the away games against them like the cheeky win against West Brom

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]Yes its looking like a lower total is required this season, perhaps less than 38 even.......but we must be clear before the absolute nightmare end of season grouo of matches we have to play....unless of course they are all sunning themselves by then! [/quote]

 

I get that feeling too. A record low maybe? Though there are signs that the teams down there are improving in performances at least with their new managers or after getting the cheque-books out

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CFJ said "I think we will just stumble along doing enough to get us over the line"

Can only agree with this - we will not get relegated but it wont be pretty only the way.

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[quote user="York Canary"]

. That last group of games looks horrific too.

[/quote]Only because they all fall together. It matters little when you play them and everyone else has to play them at some time.We still have to play all the top four.So do WBA, Palace, WHam, Sunderland.Stoke have to play 3 of themCardiff and Fulham have to play 2.

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We are nowhere near safe, but I have had all the time gut feeling we wont relegate this season even thought I was quite sure from the start it will be hard.

I have followed finnish "neutral" football forum and pick up a comment that sums up quite much how neutrals there see the bottom half relegation fight.

"Itse putoamiskamppailuun. Itse olen yhäkin sillä kannalla, että Fulham, Cardiff ja West Ham tippuvat. Cardiffilla omistajien sekoilut vievät joukkueen lopulta championshipiin. Fulhamilla sitten se, että kun joukkueesta löytyy niin paljon pelaajia joita ei edes kiinnosta, kuten Berbatov. Niin pitkään kun Berbatov jatkaa lönkyttelyään joutuu Fulham puolustustilanteessa pelaamaan vajaalla joka kuormitaa muuta joukkuetta todella paljon. Berban kaltaisen pelaajan kanssa pitäisi joukkueen pitää palloa, mutta siihen eivät mökkiläisistä pysty bulgaarin lisäksi kuin ehkä Parker. West Hamin materiaali ei sen sijaan ole riittävällä tasolla ottaen huomioon että vastaavalla materiaalilla operoiva Palace on saanut kunnon draivin päälle ja Pulis saa kyllä joukkueensa taiteiltua viivan yläpuolelle. Stoke ja Hull keräävät kotiluolistaan tarvittavat pistepotit ja AV vieraista. Norwichilla on paljon käyttämätöntä potentiaalia jonka lisäksi joukkueen peli näyttää joskus oikeasti hyvältä, samaa vois sanoa Suderlandista. Näin ollen itse valitsemani kolmikon lisäksi jäljelle jää WBA joka mielestäni voi pudota."

Writer is Liverpool fan who thinsk Fulham, Cardiff and West Ham are going to relegate, but more interesting part is at the end where he says that:

Crystal Palace has a momentum which will keep them in a league with Pulis strict defensive act, Stoke, Hull and Aston Villa will get their needed points to keep them up (his tone is bit negative). Then he says Norwich has lot of unused potential (meaning our injuries and RvW, Fer and Redmond) and that we sometimes look good for real (compared to other teams in relegation battle) and then adds that same could be said about Sunderland (meaning time after managerial change).

This seems to be consensus in finnish forums quite much and most of supporters there in Premier League section are supporters of top 8 teams.

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When the other bottom teams play each other do we need to hope for the draw and one point each or that 3 teams will be marooned by losing to others in the bottom half?

I know you cant effect other teams results but we all look at the goal flashes coming in and wonder how that effects us.

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[quote user="Lavanche"]We are nowhere near safe, but I have had all the time gut feeling we wont relegate this season even thought I was quite sure from the start it will be hard.

I have followed finnish "neutral" football forum and pick up a comment that sums up quite much how neutrals there see the bottom half relegation fight.

"Itse putoamiskamppailuun. Itse olen yhäkin sillä kannalla, että Fulham, Cardiff ja West Ham tippuvat. Cardiffilla omistajien sekoilut vievät joukkueen lopulta championshipiin. Fulhamilla sitten se, että kun joukkueesta löytyy niin paljon pelaajia joita ei edes kiinnosta, kuten Berbatov. Niin pitkään kun Berbatov jatkaa lönkyttelyään joutuu Fulham puolustustilanteessa pelaamaan vajaalla joka kuormitaa muuta joukkuetta todella paljon. Berban kaltaisen pelaajan kanssa pitäisi joukkueen pitää palloa, mutta siihen eivät mökkiläisistä pysty bulgaarin lisäksi kuin ehkä Parker. West Hamin materiaali ei sen sijaan ole riittävällä tasolla ottaen huomioon että vastaavalla materiaalilla operoiva Palace on saanut kunnon draivin päälle ja Pulis saa kyllä joukkueensa taiteiltua viivan yläpuolelle. Stoke ja Hull keräävät kotiluolistaan tarvittavat pistepotit ja AV vieraista. Norwichilla on paljon käyttämätöntä potentiaalia jonka lisäksi joukkueen peli näyttää joskus oikeasti hyvältä, samaa vois sanoa Suderlandista. Näin ollen itse valitsemani kolmikon lisäksi jäljelle jää WBA joka mielestäni voi pudota."

Writer is Liverpool fan who thinsk Fulham, Cardiff and West Ham are going to relegate, but more interesting part is at the end where he says that:

Crystal Palace has a momentum which will keep them in a league with Pulis strict defensive act, Stoke, Hull and Aston Villa will get their needed points to keep them up (his tone is bit negative). Then he says Norwich has lot of unused potential (meaning our injuries and RvW, Fer and Redmond) and that we sometimes look good for real (compared to other teams in relegation battle) and then adds that same could be said about Sunderland (meaning time after managerial change).

This seems to be consensus in finnish forums quite much and most of supporters there in Premier League section are supporters of top 8 teams.[/quote]For those who aren''t fluent in Finnish, this is the  Google Translate version:"In

putoamiskamppailuun . Personally, I still exclude the view that Fulham ,

Cardiff and West Ham fall . Cardiff has the owners of hazing will take

the team in the end Championship. Fulham then , that when the club can

be found in so many players that are not even interested in , such as

Berbatov . As long as Berbatov
continue

lönkyttelyään have to Fulham on defense to play almost a burden for

other teams so much. Berban like with a player should be a team to keep

the ball, but it does not summer cottagers can not Bulgaric addition, as

might be Parker. West Ham material is , however, not at a sufficient

level , taking into account that similar material , which operates the

Palace
has

received a good draivin on and Pulis may be yes team taiteiltua above

the line. Stoke and Hull collect kotiluolistaan ​​necessary point of

pots and audio of the guests . Norwich has a lot of untapped potential

in addition to which the team''s game seems to sometimes really good, the

same could be said Suderlandista . Consequently, your own choice of the

trio in addition to
leaving the WBA which I think may fall. "
That''s cleared that up.

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Fulham, Cardiff, West Ham sound about right to me....

" Yes its looking like a lower total is required this season, perhaps less than 38 even.......but we must be clear before the absolute nightmare end of season grouo of matches we have to play....unless of course they are all sunning themselves by then! "

Yes our last 4 games are tough, how many points will the teams below us pick up over the last 4 games - has anyone looked at the fixtures to come up with an estimate?

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OP may well be right. Only once in the last 10 seasons has the 17th finishing side needed 40 points (Wolves in 2010/11) to stay up. It has been at times much lower, so the popular view that 40 is what you need is to be as near certain as you can be that it will be enough, although in practice it can be much less. Given the current situation this seems likely to be a season where less than 40 will be enough.

HOWEVER, none of us wanted to be in this position, or even thought we would be !

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Update,

To reach 40 points we, and the teams level with us and below us, need to average the following points per game;

1.0625 – NCFC, Hull & Stoke

1.1177 – WBA

1.1875 - Swansea

1.25 – Palace

1.3125 – Fulham

1.375 – West Ham, Cardiff & Sunderland.

Now let’s convert this to percentages, in other words how much better the teams around and below us need to perform over and above our level of performance to reach 40 points

0.00% - NCFC, Hull & Stoke

5.2% - WBA

11,77 - Swansea

17.64% - Palace

23.53% Fulham

29.41% - West Ham, Cardiff & Sundeland

Can’t see seven teams outperforming us to the required level to send us down, so stats say we are already safe?

Lies, damn lies and stats, eh!

Just throwing it out their boys and girls.

Nailed on safety now then??

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I don''t understand why people are treating the last four games like we might as well not turn up. Yes, they are difficult games but we could get a result from one of them. People on here reckon Hughton is negative and then write us off before we''ve kicked off !

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FenwayFrank,

I agree, we have played them all once and lost 13 - 3 but are still only 1 point behind 10th place, so where''s the problem?

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Stats don''t prove anything until they do. They merely give us a possible glimpse of the future based on the fact that with regard to the historical Premier League tables the future mostly looks very much like the past.Most of you will know by now my theory that after 12 games the table is pretty much set in stone and anyone who would like to look at the data can see this for themselves. In most seasons the relegated teams are already in the bottom five at that stage.

After 12 games this was the bottom sixCardiff       13 pointsNorwich    11 pointsW Ham     10 pointsFulham      10 pointsPalace         7 pointsSunderland  7 pointsAt the halfway stage (19 games) thisWBA                 18Cardiff                18Palace                16Fulham               16W Ham              15Sunderland          14City were one place above on 19 pointsAnd nowSwansea           21Palace              20Fulham             19WHam             18Sunderland       18Cardiff              18City are 3 places above on 23 points.So as I predicted, no great change in the last 10 games. It also exposes the myth that the others have made great strides on us in that time.The reality is that most of those below us at 12 games have lost ground.Palace are the only team to have gained a point on us.W Ham have lost 4 pointsFulham have lost 3 pointsSunderland have lost 1 point.Cardiff have slipped from 2 points ahead to 5 points behind.

Everything changes, but nothing really changes.

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Our previous win was on Dec 7th when the win at WBA put us 4 points clear of the bottom 3.

 

We the went 6 games without a win....

 

Before finally winning yesterday against Hull putting us 5 points clear of the bottom 3.

 

We''re not safe, and it''ll be tense at times, but I''m confident at least 3 of those sides below us won''t come past. In fact I think we''ll do better than just scrape by and I fully expect us to finish nearer top half than the bottom 3.

 

 

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I''ve read your posts on this before Ricardo with more than a little scepticism, but I have to say its hard to argue against the facts, fascinating!

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I posed this question earlier, so I thought I''d try and answer...

let''s assume we were to lose all four of our last games - that''s what the mantra has been ever since the fixtures came out - how many points do we need to be clear by then

Well here''s what could happen - (numbers are points not goals)

Cardiff 3 v Stoke 0

Chelsea 3 v Sunderland 0

Newcastle 3 v Swansea 0

Spurs 3 v Fulham 0

West Ham 1 v Palace 1

Norwich 0 v Liverpool 3

Palace 0 v Man City 3

Fulham 3 v Hull 0

Sunderland 3 v Cardiff 0

Swansea 1 v Aston Villa 1

Wes Brom 1 v West Ham 1

Man U 3 v Norwich 0

Palace 0 v Liverpool 3

Man U 3 v Sunderland 0

Newcastle 3 v Cardiff 0

Stoke 1 v Fulham 1

Swansea 3 v Southampton 0

West Ham 1 v Spurs 1

Chelsea 3 v Norwich 0

Cardiff 0 v Chelsea 3

Fulham 1 v Palace 1

Man City 3 v West Ham 0

Sunderland 1 v Swansea 1

Norwich 0 v Arsenal 3

So that’s -

Cardiff 3 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 3

Fulham 0 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 5

Palace 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 = 2

Sunderland 0 + 3 + 0 + 1 = 4

Swansea 0 +1 + 3 + 1 = 5

West Ham 1+ 1+ 1 + 0 = 3

Norwich 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0

So based on these assumptions we will be safe as long as we maintain our current points lead, but a couple of points over those four games will almost certainly guarantee safety.

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[quote user="Surfer"]I posed this question earlier, so I thought I''d try and answer...

let''s assume we were to lose all four of our last games - that''s what the mantra has been ever since the fixtures came out - how many points do we need to be clear by then

Well here''s what could happen - (numbers are points not goals)

Cardiff 3 v Stoke 0

Chelsea 3 v Sunderland 0

Newcastle 3 v Swansea 0

Spurs 3 v Fulham 0

West Ham 1 v Palace 1

Norwich 0 v Liverpool 3

Palace 0 v Man City 3

Fulham 3 v Hull 0

Sunderland 3 v Cardiff 0

Swansea 1 v Aston Villa 1

Wes Brom 1 v West Ham 1

Man U 3 v Norwich 0

Palace 0 v Liverpool 3

Man U 3 v Sunderland 0

Newcastle 3 v Cardiff 0

Stoke 1 v Fulham 1

Swansea 3 v Southampton 0

West Ham 1 v Spurs 1

Chelsea 3 v Norwich 0

Cardiff 0 v Chelsea 3

Fulham 1 v Palace 1

Man City 3 v West Ham 0

Sunderland 1 v Swansea 1

Norwich 0 v Arsenal 3

So that’s -

Cardiff 3 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 3

Fulham 0 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 5

Palace 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 = 2

Sunderland 0 + 3 + 0 + 1 = 4

Swansea 0 +1 + 3 + 1 = 5

West Ham 1+ 1+ 1 + 0 = 3

Norwich 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0

So based on these assumptions we will be safe as long as we maintain our current points lead, but a couple of points over those four games will almost certainly guarantee safety.[/quote]If we go into the last four games with 36-38 points we should be o.k. but still a little early to be sure. The next 6 games are critical, if we can maintain or increase the five point gap I can''t see them coming past us.

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The last 4 games ?Liverpool Man. Utd. ChelseaArsenal If we win them all, it will not be because we played well, but because their season is over and they are ''on the beach''

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[quote user="Ray"]To reach 40 points we, and the teams level with us and below us, need to average the following points per game;

1.0625 – NCFC, Hull & Stoke

1.1177 – Swansea & WBA

1.25 – Palace

1.3125 – Fulham

1.375 – West Ham, Cardiff & Sunderland.

Now let’s convert this to percentages, in other words how much better the teams around and below us need to perform over and above our level of performance to reach 40 points

0.00% - NCFC, Hull & Stoke

5.2% - Swansea & WBA

17.64% - Palace

23.53% Fulham

29.41% - West Ham, Cardiff & Swansea

Can’t see seven teams outperforming us to the required level to send us down, so stats say we are already safe?

Lies, damn lies and stats, eh!

Just throwing it out their boys and girls.[/quote]ok, i like stats and numbers and now we have finally got some points on the board.....lets see the situation now...

Norwich, Villa, Swansea - 1.09 Points per game and 0%Stoke - 1.18 and 9%Palace - 1.16 and 7%West brom - 1.36 and 27%Sunderland - 1.33 and 24%Cardiff - 1.63 and 54%Fulham - 1.72 and 63%Really shows how far west ham have grown, 4 wins in a row, some form. Not even considering them as above us. We have only very slighty got worse. Sunderland as it stands nowhere near safe, could the curse of the cup strike again? Looking at the previous figures Fulham, Cardiff, west brom, Sunderland all failing to increase points per game.I know these do not relate to fixtures but who would have had us down to get 3 points today? The one thing which does strike me is how poor west brom are/heading. Not really any new manager ''effect'' and are relying on gifts (Liverpool, fulham yesterday) to pick up cheap points. Out of sunderland, westbrom, stoke, palace and ourselves, i would take our current predicament over any of theirs. 

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