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Ray

The Stats Prove We Are Already Safe - Don't they?

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[quote user="Houston Canary"]Our last 4 games prove writing off the final 4 games as automatic losses is pure folly.[/quote]

Would be quite something if we were safe by then and had a big say in the title race and champion leagues spots. Would make a interesting and eventful end to the season...

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why does everybody think the last four games will be a wipe out we have played well against Man City and Spurs so the last four games Man utd out of sorts at moment at least a point Liverpool sh1t hot do well to get a point Chelsea always just managing to win 1 0 shock win for city there and by the time Arsenal turn up at Carrow road they will have Qualified for europe with no hope of the title. Bassong will finally score and a winner for us Final points 42

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Nothing much has changed since my original prediction that the relegated teams will come from within the bottom half dozen after 12 games. In fact from 10th downwards it''s the exact same 11 clubs in slightly different order.Points gained in the 15 games since the dozen game mark.West Ham                    20 ptsPalace                          19City                                17Sunderland                  17Hull                               16Stoke                            14Villa                               13Swansea                     12Fulham                        11WBA                             10Cardiff                           9NB Sunderland and Palace are a game behind (away at Man City and away at Everton)According to some our form mid season has been dreadful and if so, I wonder what they think the fans at Stoke, Villa, Swansea, Fulham, WBA and Cardiff are thinking?

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Back of an envelope type stuff: Looking at corresponding fixtures this season vs last (stripping out Hull, Palace and Cardiff) we have 20pts this vs 18pts last. Of the games we have remaining we took 17pts last season. Current actual total 28pts + 17pts =  ...plain sailing!

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You can do all the fiddling about stat-crunching you like, but the bottom line is it all depends on  which Norwich team turn up for the remaining 11 games. If it''s the one we saw on Sunday or  v Man City we''ll stay safe easily. On the other hand, if it''s the one we saw v Newcastle or Palace, or the one which threw away points at Upton Pk and Cardiff, we''ll be in real trouble. Of course that applies to other sides, but as other people have pointed out,unlike last season, there''s no two teams cut adrift. So all 3 relegation places are up for grabs.So, if we perform consistently and to our full potential, we''ll walk it.  Over to  you, Hughton and the players.......

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I find Ricardo''s stats interesting and a reasonable indication of how the end of season could play out. When you consider how many injury problems City have had over those 15 games, the 17 point return has been reasonable. Over the last six games it is even better (2w, 2d,2l= 8 points and 4 clean sheets). Yobo has brought a solidity to the defence in the absence of Bennett and Turner, and with Howson fit again, CH will have more options available in attack. I''m optimistic of 40+ points.

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Your numbers are all wrong. I think you have ignored the game in hand that Palace and Sunderland have.

If I multiply 1.25 by 12 I get 15, that would put Palace on 41 points not 40.

You have also made this task look more unachievable than it really is by putting the benchmark at 40 points, instead of the 37 or 38 that are more commonly required.

Considering our last four fixtures we probably need to get 8 or 9 points in our next 7 games.

I really can''t see Fulham or Cardiff getting out of a mess.

But Sunderland? The form table is usually projected over past six games, they have 10 points from 6 in the form table, that is actually 1.67 points per game. Well above your figure of 1.375 (an inflated figure because 40 won''t be necessary to avoid 17th).

Crystal Palace are in similar good form with 9 points from 6, 1.5 per game, well above your figure, and even further above the projection to 37 or 38.

Saying that we are safe on 28 points is just silly really, we need to increase our current points tally by more than a third to reach 40 points, with some very difficult fixtures.

Defeat at Villa would put us right back in the mire, a win at Villa and we could get some real distance, but last season we got sucked into a false sense of security and let our form drop and I don''t want that happening again.

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[quote user="Le Juge"]Your numbers are all wrong. I think you have ignored the game in hand that Palace and Sunderland have.

If I multiply 1.25 by 12 I get 15, that would put Palace on 41 points not 40.

You have also made this task look more unachievable than it really is by putting the benchmark at 40 points, instead of the 37 or 38 that are more commonly required.

Considering our last four fixtures we probably need to get 8 or 9 points in our next 7 games.

I really can''t see Fulham or Cardiff getting out of a mess.

But Sunderland? The form table is usually projected over past six games, they have 10 points from 6 in the form table, that is actually 1.67 points per game. Well above your figure of 1.375 (an inflated figure because 40 won''t be necessary to avoid 17th).

Crystal Palace are in similar good form with 9 points from 6, 1.5 per game, well above your figure, and even further above the projection to 37 or 38.

Saying that we are safe on 28 points is just silly really, we need to increase our current points tally by more than a third to reach 40 points, with some very difficult fixtures.

Defeat at Villa would put us right back in the mire, a win at Villa and we could get some real distance, but last season we got sucked into a false sense of security and let our form drop and I don''t want that happening again.[/quote]

If you look on the 2nd page buddy you will I have updated the stats. For me its between Sunderland,west brom and palace to go down....bar a complete collapse from ourselves...

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Realistically unless either Cardiff or Fulham somehow do a Wigan we are in a battle to avoid 18th.

We are still in the fight with 5 or 6 other teams, many of who have still to play each other.

We can''t suddenly declare ourselves safe because we got 3 points, any of the teams below us could go and do the same thing at the weekend.

We still need to take it one game at a time, I''d take a point at Villa Park.

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Aaah, the old ones are the best "each game at a time Brian, let''s focus on our own game and not worry about the other results, we can''t get complacent after a win, there are no easy games...".

 

But I agree that 9 points from the next 7 games realistically should put us where we need to be safe, although another 2-3 would be very comforting.  If we have 38+ before we start our final four games, I''ll be ok with that.

 

And a point at VP would be fine for me.

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Crazy for anyone to write off Fulham and Cardiff. They are not cut adrift like QPR and Reading were last season, and a couple of wins for them plus a couple of defeats for us, WBA, Sunderland, Stoke etc and the whole picture looks different. People were writing off W Ham a month ago and now look at them.As far as we are concerned, it''s the age old formula, isn''t it ? Win a decent proportion of your home games and draw a decent proportion of your aways, and you''ll stay safe. There really are no excuses...the next 3 homes are eminently winnable and the next 4 aways are eminently drawable at the very least. The unexpected 3 pts on Sun has give us a fighting chance. If we are not safe by close of business on Apr 12th we will have no-one to blame but ourselves. The days of having to rely on other teams losing should not come into the reckoning now.

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Keep making it up Reggie!

 

Last season at this time only QPR were adrift. Reading had 23 points. Villa and Wigan 24, Newcastle and Southampton 27. Sunderland 29.

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

 

Last season at this time only QPR were adrift.

 

 

[/quote]Erm, who said anything about ''this time last year'' ? Nige. Just you, it seems. Are you suggesting ,though, that well before the end of the season, the game was not up for both QPR AND Reading.As so often, you deliberately miss the point I was making of course. Nothing new in that, I suppose. All I''m doing is just making the general observation that Fulham and Cardiff are not yet cut adrift/doomed as many seem to be suggesting. Are you writing them off ?

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Silly me! Of course you didn''t mean at this stage of the season. How they finished is what''s more relevant to the league table now....

 

I am not writing anyone off. I have been consistent with my opinions throughout this season. I believe we will be safe. I believe we are good enough to finish "pushing for top half". We have improved during the season and have been playing well since we got stuffed at Liverpool. While the results at West Ham and Cardiff were very disappointing the performances were not so. The players made ammends for that with the results against Man Citeh and Spurs. After West Ham Big Sam said we''d be fine. I agree with him.

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Silly me! Of course you didn''t mean at this stage of the season. How they finished is what''s more relevant to the league table now....

 

I am not writing anyone off.

 

 

[/quote]Good. Quite rightly . So then why the hell are you making such a fuss about a small throw-away line that I wrote concerning Fulham and Cardiff  , you ridiculous man ? My point was not actually about our wins/losses, merely that I feel it''s silly to dismiss Fulham and Cardiff at this stage, as some people appear to be doing. And, it seems, you actually agree with me on that. Always a first time, eh ????.....

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

Silly me! Of course you didn''t mean at this stage of the season. How they finished is what''s more relevant to the league table now....

 

I am not writing anyone off.

 

 

[/quote]Good. Quite rightly . So then why the hell are you making such a fuss about a small throw-away line that I wrote concerning Fulham and Cardiff  , you ridiculous man ? My point was not actually about our wins/losses, merely that I feel it''s silly to dismiss Fulham and Cardiff at this stage, as some people appear to be doing. And, it seems, you actually agree with me on that. Always a first time, eh ????.....[/quote]

 

Not making a fuss Reggie. Just pointing out once again that you making stuff up alongside your opinion is dishonest..

 

 

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If fans had protested around January instead of waiting for the WBA game then we may not have been staring relegation in the face. But in January there were some thinking we''d finish in the top half of the table. Fortunately no one takes their posts seriously anymore.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

But we only have your word for that Rocky. Fulham changed twice...

 

 

[/quote]

And all their managers have performed almost identically, the latest guy marginally better.

Jol p13 pts10

Meulensteen p13 pts 10

Penfold p11 pts11

Pulis and Poyet have done well, Pulis especially, my theory is that Poyet has simply got Sunderland playing at somewhere near to their potential, he inherited a squad containing players with over 500 international caps. Pulis should probably get Manager of the season.

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