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The new Messiah?

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I''ve been looking at the points gained at the halfway stage - after 19 games of course, by teams which were subsequently relegated.54 teams have been relegated in the past 18 years - of those:18 teams were relegated having secured 18 or more points by halfway12 teams were relegated having secured 19 or more points by halfway10 teams ...................................................206 teams .....................................................21 or more points by halfway5 teams .....................................................222 teams .....................................................23Just the one - Blackpool - was relegated by halfway with 25 points.(36 teams had less than 18 points at the halfway stage and were subsequently relegated)We''ve got 18 points already and so the odds of staying up are already in our favour - another 3 or 4 from the next 3 games should settle the nerves. Any more than 4, and we might be discussing whether CH is the new Messiah.

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[quote user="Mustard Matters"]I''ve been looking at the points gained at the halfway stage - after 19 games of course, by teams which were subsequently relegated.

54 teams have been relegated in the past 18 years - of those:

18 teams were relegated having secured 18 or more points by halfway
12 teams were relegated having secured 19 or more points by halfway
10 teams ...................................................20
6 teams .....................................................21 or more points by halfway
5 teams .....................................................22

2 teams .....................................................23
Just the one - Blackpool - was relegated by halfway with 25 points.

(36 teams had less than 18 points at the halfway stage and were subsequently relegated)


We''ve got 18 points already and so the odds of staying up are already in our favour - another 3 or 4 from the next 3 games should settle the nerves. Any more than 4, and we might be discussing whether CH is the new Messiah.
[/quote]

 

New Messiah?

 

Don''t make me laugh.

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How many points did Reading have up until their monumental collapse and relegation that season? I believe they were in European spot at some point?

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Interesting figures.If you include the 22 team Prem then the most noticeable addition would be Norwich City.Exactly 19 years ago to the day we beat Crystal Palace 1-0 to take us onto 30 points from 19 games. We didn''t win again until Newcastle at the end of the month but that was our 22nd game of the 42 so just over halfway. Our only other victory that season was a regulation three points off the Binners.We were relegated despite having accumulated 30 points by the halfway point of the season which I think is the highest halfway total reached by a relegated team and something I''m sure will be brought up more than once in the coming weeks by the "YesButs" & doom-mongers.

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Yes, these stats would reassure me a lot more if I didn''t remember the 94/95 season all too well.

 

I suspect Hughton''s achievements will only be recognized when he''s left and people are slating the new guy for failing to achieve the same level

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If we don''t take 4 points from the next three games, then not only will that leave us well in the "most regularly relegated" category, but we will also have lost to/dropped points against one or both of Sunderland and Fulham - probably two of the biggest candidates to go down instead of us.

So yeah, if we are on 22 points plus by the end of the year, I will be confident of staying up. Anything less than that and I will still be worried.

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We also play Crystal Palace int he new year which is another 3 points we must take

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[quote user="Aggy"]If we don''t take 4 points from the next three games, then not only will that leave us well in the "most regularly relegated" category, but we will also have lost to/dropped points against one or both of Sunderland and Fulham - probably two of the biggest candidates to go down instead of us. So yeah, if we are on 22 points plus by the end of the year, I will be confident of staying up. Anything less than that and I will still be worried.[/quote]

 

You might want to check the numbers in the OP''s post.  His point was that with 18 points we already have more points than most of the 54 relegated teams had at the half-way point in the season.  So there''s no question of us being in the "most regularly relegated" category at the half-way mark, we already have enough points to be above it.

 

But I do agree that if we get 4 points + from our next 3 games, we''ll be well placed at half-way and can be confident of staying up.

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I think ICF has got the structure of this right.. so this only covers 18/54 of the previous relegated teams who were on equal or more points than us at this stage of the season.

It is rather confusing that these number coincidentally add up to 54 though..

 

 

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