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Fat Nat

Relegation 2013/14

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As we are fast approaching the half way point of the season. What are your views on who will fill the bottoms 3 places at the end of the season?

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I think our game this weekend could actually decide ours and Sunderlands fate.

If we win, personally I think we''ll definitely be fine. I''m pretty sure anyway, but another away win and I''ll be 99% convinced. And a home loss to us could see Sunderland really start to lose their grip. They may have just beaten Chelsea, but that''s the cup, they really need to back it up with a league win otherwise they are down for me.

Sunderland, Palace and quite probably Cardiff.

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I still have this feeling it might yet be the 3 promoted sides. Doesn''t happen often, but Palace and Cardiff are awful and Hull could have a serious downturn over the 2nd half of the season, their squad really isn''t good at all.

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"I think our game this weekend could actually decide ours and Sunderlands fate."it may have already have been decided if history is anything to go by, as I think only one club has avoided relegation after being bottom at Xmasand whatever happens on Saturday they will be bottom at Xmasthe ''dead ducks look to be those below usWest Brom and Fulham are in free fall and Wesy Ham don''t look too healthy eitherPalace appear to be picking up so they might just squeak clear - but the problem is nothing is certain - look at us before and after XmasI would add that off field problems can have a big say - look at Wolves and Blackburn previously .. and Cardiff at the momentfour points over the next two games which is not unlikely given the opposition and we have a firm base to finish ok come Maytwo defeats or draws and not only could we still be around the relegation places but it would beg the question of how well we could do in the second half of the season

should look at lot clearer come Jan 1stSunderland, Fulham and West Ham/Brom

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I will make my final guesstimate after Boxing days games but at the moment I agree with Gingerpele and several others Palace, Sunderland and Cardiff.I think Fulham will be able to do enough to get clear and the same goes for WBA. Not so sure about W Ham though.Once teams start to need 1.5 points a game to get 40 points then they are dead ducks. Sunderland are already at 1.4 and if W Ham and Palace lose Saturday they will be needing close to 1.3. To put that into perspective it means achieving top 10 form for the rest of the season. Will it happen? more chance of being struck by lightening IMO.

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this time last season the bottom three wereWiganReadingSunderland

a further question is how many other ''relegation'' clubs will replace their managers4 out of the bottom five have this seasonodds on Allardyce going must be short

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Sunderland

West Ham

Cardiff

Sunderland are very poor at the moment and the change of manager doesn''t seem to have worked. Has any Premier League club fired two managers in one season before? Could Sunderland be forced to do this?

Cardiff are not buying anyone and there appears to be a lot of bad feeling and infighting off the field which won''t help.

Without a striker I can''t see West Ham making enough of an improvement to escape relegation

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Sunderland have turned the corner. They''ll probably finish above us. Fulham have too many good players as do West Ham and West Brom. Palace will escape as they have Pulis.

We''ll be very lucky to escape if Houghton is in charge.

Apparently.

How about Stoke, Villa and Cardiff to go down..?

If I''m honest I reckon it will be Sunderland, Palace and hopefully Cardiff.

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whoever it is city need an 8-12 point gap going into the last 4 games if not we could well be joining themim guessing palace, cardiff (im expecting them to sack malky at some point and everything to go t1ts up) and sunderland

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Ok here goes

 

Since 2000-01 season all of the teams that went down , were in the bottom 5 after 16 games,  for 8 of the 13 seasons.

 

Taking the seasons where this didn’t happen, the team that were highest , that eventually went down, after 16 games were Blackpool (who were 10th  after 16 games on 22 points in season 2010-11), Middlesbrough (08-09 season) who were 12th on 19pts , and Reading (07-08 season) who were 12th on 17pts.

 

In the 09-10 season Burnley were 13th on 18 points after 16 games and went down.

 

The next season Birmingham were 14th  after 16 games on 18 points, went down, This year was the year Blackpool went into freefall.

 

So.

 

For City to go down , having got 18 points after 16 matches and being 14th  we would have to be one of a very few. Even teams outside of the bottom five at this stage historically that go down, , don’t have as many points as us, with the exception of Blackpool (freefall) Birmingham (won a cup)  and Reading.  

 

Looking at the bottom five, It’s hard to look outside of these.   

 

 

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West Ham will invest in January and will be fine in my view. They have enough about them in midfield and at the back. Fulham, Cardiff, Palace, Sunderland are all way behind West Ham, although it pains me to say it as i''d love to see them sent back to the Champs.

I also can''t see Stoke maintaining their current momentum while West Brom lack a serious goal threat. A lot will depend on what all these teams can do in January. I wouldn''t want to be one of the teams relying on pulling a rabbit out of the hat in January. Thankfully we''re not one of them and for that reason alone I don''t think we have to worry too much. I think we are only a really top quality centre back light now. The one area we didn''t strengthen in the summer. And maybe right back.

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[quote user="a1canary"]West Ham will invest in January and will be fine in my view. They have enough about them in midfield and at the back. Fulham, Cardiff, Palace, Sunderland are all way behind West Ham, although it pains me to say it as i''d love to see them sent back to the Champs.

I also can''t see Stoke maintaining their current momentum while West Brom lack a serious goal threat. A lot will depend on what all these teams can do in January. I wouldn''t want to be one of the teams relying on pulling a rabbit out of the hat in January. Thankfully we''re not one of them and for that reason alone I don''t think we have to worry too much. I think we are only a really top quality centre back light now. The one area we didn''t strengthen in the summer. And maybe right back.[/quote]Are WHU one of those reliant upon pulling a rabbit ?As said above the figures do seem to bear out the thought that those at the bottom now tend to be those who are relegatedThis is I would suggest that the problems are far deeper than a few additions to the squad - that''s why they are where they are. Much as with QPR who it was thought with dear old readies taking over and a few deals in january they would pull clear.However I definitely thought that we would be hustling towards staying in the top ten at this point rather than grubbing about just above the dead ducks

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Houghton will get us relegated. We''ll sack him when it''s too late and then he''ll take over at Cardiff  and get them relegated too.

 

I bet there''ll still be a load of Percies on here saying he''s a good manager.

 

Maybe[;)]

 

 

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[quote user=" Zak Van Cartman"][quote user="Warren Hill"]

Apparently.

How about Stoke, Villa and Cardiff to go down..? [/quote]Yes please!! [/quote]straying into the territory of who we want sackedin that caseCardiff - much of what is wrong with footballWHU - r sole bunch of fansPalace - horrible ground and fans

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Much as I''d love to be able to draw comparisons between West Ham this season and QPR last season, there are none. QPR were a loosely assembled collection of over paid mercenaries. West Ham have players with proper longer term associations with the club who will fight for the shirt and for the team. Noble, Nolan, Jarvis, Collins to name a few. Not world beaters but good enough. They have enough defensive solidity and midfield creativity, what they are missing is a strike force to match. None of that is to say they are brilliant - just that they are also not bottom 3 material if they can sort out their striker issues and I''d expect them to do so. Carrol may get fit and they have enough money to bring someone in but of course doing that in January is no easy task. But Sunderland, Cardiff, Palace, West Brom, Fulham in my view need a lot more than a striker to give themselves a good chance of staying out of it. They won''t all be able to get what they need. January this year is going to be an absolute bun fight.

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Palace - For many reasons, especially now Pulis is there, my god I hope they go down for the sake of the Prem.

Fulham - Suck. Just flat out pants. Brought terribly in the summer

West Ham - They do this every now and again, have a pretty decent team with some good players, yet contrive to go down

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I see 7 clubs below us at the end, Sunderland, Palace,Fulham,Cardiff, WBA, West Ham, Hull. Of those the 3 promoted clubs, West Ham and Sunderland would be my bottom 5. Sunderland and Fulham may yet kick on. Palace are short on quality as are Hull albeit the latter have points inthe bag. Cardiff with the tan saga have the potential to implode Blackburn style

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Bit too early to say after all the managerial changes. Because , despite what some on here would have you believe, a change in manager/approach CAN make a big difference, if done soon enough. What I do know is that it''s going to be one hell of a dogfight, with everyone in the current classification from Swansea downwards likely to have an extremely dodgy spell, and thus  a nervous period, at the very least looking over their shoulders. I predict ours will come in February.Pulis comes in for a lot of stick on this forum, but he has an enviable record in these situations, and frankly, I can see Palace surviving. so, at this moment in time,I''m going for ;SunderlandHull Cardiff

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[quote user="City1st"]this time last season the bottom three wereWiganReadingSunderland

a further question is how many other ''relegation'' clubs will replace their managers4 out of the bottom five have this seasonodds on Allardyce going must be short

[/quote]Er, No. It was Wigan, Reading and QPR.The same 3 who were relegated in that orderAnd the top 3 at this stage were the same top 3 in that order at the end of the season. City were 12thVery little changes from here on in.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="City1st"]this time last season the bottom three were

Wigan
Reading
Sunderland


a further question is how many other ''relegation'' clubs will replace their managers

4 out of the bottom five have this season

odds on Allardyce going must be short



[/quote]

Er, No. It was Wigan, Reading and QPR.

The same 3 who were relegated in that order

And the top 3 at this stage were the same top 3 in that order at the end of the season. City were 12th

Very little changes from here on in.
[/quote]

Good to hear! Seems like a nice reliable stat. Where we at Christmas in Lambert''s season?

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[quote user="a1canary"]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="City1st"]this time last season the bottom three wereWiganReadingSunderland

a further question is how many other ''relegation'' clubs will replace their managers4 out of the bottom five have this seasonodds on Allardyce going must be short

[/quote]Er, No. It was Wigan, Reading and QPR.The same 3 who were relegated in that orderAnd the top 3 at this stage were the same top 3 in that order at the end of the season. City were 12thVery little changes from here on in.[/quote]

Good to hear! Seems like a nice reliable stat. Where we at Christmas in Lambert''s season?

[/quote]After the Boxing Day games we were 11th on 21 points from 18 games. The relegated teams were 17th, 19th, 20th.Very little changes in the second half of the season. The odd team that falls from mid table to be relegated is very much the exception.

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From the bottom up:

Sunderland, Palace, Cardiff, West Ham, Hull, Fulham, us, Villa, Stoke, West Brom.

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[quote user="Aggy"]From the bottom up:

Sunderland, Palace, Cardiff, West Ham, Hull, Fulham, us, Villa, Stoke, West Brom.[/quote]

It won''t be far out.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="City1st"]this time last season the bottom three wereWiganReadingSunderland

a further question is how many other ''relegation'' clubs will replace their managers4 out of the bottom five have this seasonodds on Allardyce going must be short

[/quote]

Er, No. It was Wigan, Reading and QPR.The same 3 who were relegated in that orderAnd the top 3 at this stage were the same top 3 in that order at the end of the season. City were 12thVery little changes from here on in.[/quote]oops, humblest apologies meant to type QPR

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