2013: the facts

[City 2nd 191]

Ricardo wrote:

I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite plainly it doesn''t. Teams will have little runs of good and bad results.................

Errrrrr when exactly have we had a little run of GOOD results in 2013 Ricardo?

Seems to me your latter element of this post is quite true, because we have consistently had poor results this year, and there has been NO improvement at all under Hughton. At the AGM I believe Bowkett inferred he expected a top ten finish, and the CEO stated we would soon be in mid table mediocrity. I think both need to converse with each other, and both certainly need to converse with Hughton - but we all know Bowkett has problems talking to the club manager as he couldn''t manage it with Lambert fir over 12 months - if anyone believes Hughton, Calderwood and Trollopeare the man to take NCFC to the next level, they are totally deluded. It will not happen, and relegation will come first.

[JF 694]

Oh right I hadn''t seen that and I would agree with that completely.

[JF 694]

ricardo wrote the following post at 29/12/2013 11:37 AM:

JF wrote:

In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points. So you have them both as already down and only one spot left to fill? A few weeks ago I would have agreed, but not now.

No old son, if you''ve been following what I said on the relegation predictions you would know that I have already stated that at least 5 clubs won''t get 40 points. Looking at the table now it could be as many as 7 clubs don''t get 40 points. How that turns into positions is still up in the air, this season will be tighter than most and teams may survive with as few as 34 points. It''s all yet to play out.

Oh right I hadn''t seen that and would agree completely.

[*** 0]

[quote user="City 2nd"]Ricardo wrote: I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite plainly it doesn''t. Teams will have little runs of good and bad results................. Errrrrr when exactly have we had a little run of GOOD results in 2013 Ricardo? Seems to me your latter element of this post is quite true, because we have consistently had poor results this year, and there has been NO improvement at all under Hughton. At the AGM I believe Bowkett inferred he expected a top ten finish, and the CEO stated we would soon be in mid table mediocrity. I think both need to converse with each other, and both certainly need to converse with Hughton - but we all know Bowkett has problems talking to the club manager as he couldn''t manage it with Lambert fir over 12 months - if anyone believes Hughton, Calderwood and Trollopeare the man to take NCFC to the next level, they are totally deluded. It will not happen, and relegation will come first.[/quote]

 

Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah![Y]

[morty 0]

[quote user="Wiz"]

[quote user="City 2nd"]Ricardo wrote: I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite plainly it doesn''t. Teams will have little runs of good and bad results................. Errrrrr when exactly have we had a little run of GOOD results in 2013 Ricardo? Seems to me your latter element of this post is quite true, because we have consistently had poor results this year, and there has been NO improvement at all under Hughton. At the AGM I believe Bowkett inferred he expected a top ten finish, and the CEO stated we would soon be in mid table mediocrity. I think both need to converse with each other, and both certainly need to converse with Hughton - but we all know Bowkett has problems talking to the club manager as he couldn''t manage it with Lambert fir over 12 months - if anyone believes Hughton, Calderwood and Trollopeare the man to take NCFC to the next level, they are totally deluded. It will not happen, and relegation will come first.[/quote]

 

Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah![Y]

[/quote]In my head everytime you shout "Huzzah" you are also dribbling spit into your beard.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="JF"]I would be quite happy to bet on it and if you like you can remind me of it at the end of the season. I will say it again, neither Palace nor Sunderland will get 36 points.

I hope you are right but you are coming across as being quite complacent in your opinions, I hope the board are not sharing this. If Palace beat us Wednesday we are on the same points yet they wont reach 36 and we will?[/quote]I was right last season as early as November in saying City would not be relegated although many on here didn''t believe me. I was also right at Xmas when I said Reading and QPR would CERTAINLY be relegated although once again many on here still believed in Harry Houdini. Yes, anything is possible but the table is largely set in stone at this stage and there will only be minor changes in the placings.Just look at the form over the last 10 gamesPalace  13 pointsCity     11 pointsSund    10 pointsVilla      10 pointsCardf     9 pointsWBA     8 pointsFulham   6 pointsWHam    5 points

It takes a long while to pull back once you get behind and the table is far less dynamic over time than most people think.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="City 2nd"]Ricardo wrote:

I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite plainly it doesn''t. Teams will have little runs of good and bad results.................

Errrrrr when exactly have we had a little run of GOOD results in 2013 Ricardo?

Seems to me your latter element of this post is quite true, because we have consistently had poor results this year, and there has been NO improvement at all under Hughton. At the AGM I believe Bowkett inferred he expected a top ten finish, and the CEO stated we would soon be in mid table mediocrity. I think both need to converse with each other, and both certainly need to converse with Hughton - but we all know Bowkett has problems talking to the club manager as he couldn''t manage it with Lambert fir over 12 months - if anyone believes Hughton, Calderwood and Trollopeare the man to take NCFC to the next level, they are totally deluded. It will not happen, and relegation will come first.[/quote]

Look at the stats instead of the anecdotes and you will see that our form over any reasonable period (say 10 games) shows us to be performing on a par with most of our peers and better than enough of them to remain out of trouble. That''s not to say that things could deteriorate because anything can happen even though the probability is low.Stats are stats and facts are facts, you can dislike them as much as you like but they are what they are and don''t cease being so because they spoil your theories.The stats are your friend, look''em up you might find relief from a worried life.[;)]

[JF 694]

Thats quite interesting form over the last 10 games and shows what a good job Pulis has done so far. It also shows that the smart money should be on big Sam to be out next! Again I hope you are right and as I said above I agree that there may be several teams that won''t reach 40. 36 could be enough for us but that goal dif is a concern on that.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

The predictive statistics of Fink Tank at the Times predict that 6teams will not reach 40 points and that we will finish 14th with 40.

I don''t see anything outrageously wild about those predictions

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]If he keeps us up he will have done his job, if not he will go but I see virtually no possibility of him being shown the door during this current season.[/quote]It all depends if we fall into the drop zone, which could happen soon if we mess up on Wednesday, then we will see how the nerve of the CEO holds. Palace (A) Everton (A) Hull (H) Newcastle (H)

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]

It takes a long while to pull back once you get behind and the table is far less dynamic over time than most people think.

[/quote]Yep, about a point a game is the norm.  So a 5 point gap equates to 5 games.

[City 2nd 191]

ricardo wrote the following post at 2013-12-29 3:59

Look at the stats instead of the anecdotes and you will see that our form over any reasonable period (say 10 games) shows us to be performing on a par with most of our peers and better than enough of them to remain out of trouble. That''s not to say that things could deteriorate because anything can happen even though the probability is low.

Stats are stats and facts are facts, you can dislike them as much as you like but they are what they are and don''t cease being so because they spoil your theories.

The stats are your friend, look''em up you might find relief from a worried life.

What anecdotes? The FACT is that both Bowkett and McNally stated what they did at the AGM - you were there Ricardo.

Our form over any reasonable period is CRAP, fact! But it is apparent you allude to the historical ten game run of last year. That''s you making your stat look good! You can make any stat look good Ricardo, I worked in a profession where stats were manipulated every week to make management and public believe them,

On a par with our peers - really, I thought the expectation was improvement et al Bowkett, fact, he said it.

The stats state that Norwich City have won only fifteen home matches sine the start of LAST SEASON. That stat, Ricardo, is fact.

It a fact we have not improved under Hughton, we have not moved to the next level, fact. We are in a relegation battle. fact.

And it a a fact that we may not be relegated, but with the current form, that may well become reality.

Should we lose to Palace, I will look out for you posts supporting the current set up with interest.

And I certainly do not have a worried life - I''m retired with a very nice pension thanks, and about to disappear on my annual winter long haul holiday to the sun. Nah, no worries.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="City 2nd"]ricardo wrote the following post at 2013-12-29 3:59

Look at the stats instead of the anecdotes and you will see that our form over any reasonable period (say 10 games) shows us to be performing on a par with most of our peers and better than enough of them to remain out of trouble. That''s not to say that things could deteriorate because anything can happen even though the probability is low.

Stats are stats and facts are facts, you can dislike them as much as you like but they are what they are and don''t cease being so because they spoil your theories.

The stats are your friend, look''em up you might find relief from a worried life.

What anecdotes? The FACT is that both Bowkett and McNally stated what they did at the AGM - you were there Ricardo.

Our form over any reasonable period is CRAP, fact! But it is apparent you allude to the historical ten game run of last year. That''s you making your stat look good! You can make any stat look good Ricardo, I worked in a profession where stats were manipulated every week to make management and public believe them,

On a par with our peers - really, I thought the expectation was improvement et al Bowkett, fact, he said it.

The stats state that Norwich City have won only fifteen home matches sine the start of LAST SEASON. That stat, Ricardo, is fact.

It a fact we have not improved under Hughton, we have not moved to the next level, fact. We are in a relegation battle. fact.

And it a a fact that we may not be relegated, but with the current form, that may well become reality.

Should we lose to Palace, I will look out for you posts supporting the current set up with interest.

And I certainly do not have a worried life - I''m retired with a very nice pension thanks, and about to disappear on my annual winter long haul holiday to the sun. Nah, no worries.[/quote]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.I have certainly not manipulated any stat and am happy to look at it on any time period you care to name. Winning 10 games a season is usually enough to keep you up so 15 in a season and a half is par for the course.

Yes City have won only 15 games as you correctly state. So have West Ham and Villa while Sunderland have won only 12 in that time period.Fulham have won 16.W Brom have won 17 but 10 of those were in the first half of last season so have only won 7 games in the calendar year (as have Sunderland).Obviously no stats for Cardiff, Hull and Palace because they were in a different league but I can''t see anything there that suggests we are performing any differently to clubs who we would consider to be our peers.Nobody is claiming it is brilliant but it''s certainly not inferior to anybody else and better than some. Enjoy your winter break and nice pension, unfortunately mine went up the Swannee when my company went bust but hey ho such is life.And another thing, I don''t support the current set up as you put it. I support the club and I post in support of whatever the facts happen show. It matters not to me whether Chris Hughton is manager or Old Mother Riley.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.[/quote]Bizarre, no mention of Swansea or Southampton in that.  Where we should be aiming to be.

[T 190]

Please no not soton again and again and again....which part of they are heavily subsidized by a wealthy backer do some people still not get?

Swansea yes - also stadium subsidized whilst NCFC had no choice but to pay their debts back.

You want omparisons - how about the numerous clubs in the Chanpionship and league 1 who are a similar size to NCFC.

Its very simple - the clubs with the biggest wage budget attract the best players who therefore tend to perform in line with their wage budget. Name one club where the manager is performing substantially better than their wage budget  - there is not a single club. Hull probably come the closest and they have been subsidized to the tune of 70m. Those who don''t get it are either trolling or NfN.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.[/quote]Bizarre, no mention of Swansea or Southampton in that.  Where we should be aiming to be.[/quote]OK you asked for it, both Swansea and Southampton have recorded only 16 wins each in the same season and a half timescale. That''s just one more win than us.You asked for it, don''t blame me if the facts don''t fit your theories.[;)]

[JF 694]

Now that is surprising Ricardo. Could you please stop with the facts now cos i''m quite happy off the fence in the out camp and don''t really want to go back on it and get splinters in my arse!

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.[/quote]Bizarre, no mention of Swansea or Southampton in that.  Where we should be aiming to be.[/quote]OK you asked for it, both Swansea and Southampton have recorded only 16 wins each in the same season and a half timescale. That''s just one more win than us.You asked for it, don''t blame me if the facts don''t fit your theories.[;)][/quote]So both won more games than us.  A dumb timescale anyway, I''m not sure what matches over a year ago have to do with now.Both have also moved to the ''next level''.   Swansea won a cup in that time-frame, and are in Europe and Southampton have moved from 15th to 9th since their change of manager in January.  Hughton''s half seasons are  25 points ---> 19 points --> 19 points. Hopefully he takes us back forward with an excellent second half to this season.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Neither Swansea or the new darlings Southampton have managed to beat Hughton''s team in that same season and a half...

 

 

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="JF"]Now that is surprising Ricardo. Could you please stop with the facts now cos i''m quite happy off the fence in the out camp and don''t really want to go back on it and get splinters in my arse![/quote]If people want to construct myths just to support their point of view then they really ought to do a little bit of research before going out on a limb."The deepest sin of the human mind is to believe things without evidence. Many a beautiful theory was killed by an ugly fact".Thomas Henry Huxley (1825-95)

[Guest]

To be fair Foghorn, things can change very quickly in football. Just because Southampton and Swansea seem to be on "the next level" does not mean that will still be the case in a few months time.

I think we have a young, exciting squad and that we are playing marginally better football than last season. Progress is slower than hoped but I don''t think things are hopeless as a lot of people seem to believe.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="JF"]Now that is surprising Ricardo. Could you please stop with the facts now cos i''m quite happy off the fence in the out camp and don''t really want to go back on it and get splinters in my arse![/quote]If people want to construct myths just to support their point of view then they really ought to do a little bit of research before going out on a limb."The deepest sin of the human mind is to believe things without evidence. Many a beautiful theory was killed by an ugly fact".Thomas Henry Huxley (1825-95)[/quote]

 

 [Y][Y][Y]

 

 

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.[/quote]Bizarre, no mention of Swansea or Southampton in that.  Where we should be aiming to be.[/quote]OK you asked for it, both Swansea and Southampton have recorded only 16 wins each in the same season and a half timescale. That''s just one more win than us.You asked for it, don''t blame me if the facts don''t fit your theories.[;)][/quote]So both won more games than us.  A dumb timescale anyway, I''m not sure what matches over a year ago have to do with now.Both have also moved to the ''next level''.   Swansea won a cup in that time-frame, and are in Europe and Southampton have moved from 15th to 9th since their change of manager in January.  Hughton''s half seasons are  25 points ---> 19 points --> 19 points. Hopefully he takes us back forward with an excellent second half to this season.[/quote]I''m sure if you try hard enough you will be able to find different timescales that might look better for other clubs but then so would City''s 10 game run. It''s swings and roundabouts and over the course of a season or a calendar year the difference between us and our peers is very marginal.However I agree that both Swansea and Southampton look better than us and have moved on a bit, but not by as much as many believe.

[hogesar 9,615]

Let''s be honest. For the most part of this year we''ve been pretty shit and pretty boring.

But, we''re still not in the bottom 3.

I really can''t see Hughton going now - I do believe that Hughton will generally speaking collect enough points to keep us up this season - and that has to be the priority. The boards ambition of a top 10 finish will have to take a back-seat. We''re in a relegation scramble at the moment and probably will be till near enough the last game because we''ve not been consistently good enough under Hughton to make a top 10 challenge.

I''m sure i won''t enjoy the majority of the rest of this season unless we play as we did vs Man Utd in the first half a lot more often. But i do still think Hughton will clamber together enough scrappy draws and 1-0 wins to keep us up.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]On a par with our peers? yes really. Expectation is an entirely different argument because its not open to an analysis of any statistics.[/quote]Bizarre, no mention of Swansea or Southampton in that.  Where we should be aiming to be.[/quote]OK you asked for it, both Swansea and Southampton have recorded only 16 wins each in the same season and a half timescale. That''s just one more win than us.You asked for it, don''t blame me if the facts don''t fit your theories.[;)][/quote]So both won more games than us.  A dumb timescale anyway, I''m not sure what matches over a year ago have to do with now.Both have also moved to the ''next level''.   Swansea won a cup in that time-frame, and are in Europe and Southampton have moved from 15th to 9th since their change of manager in January.  Hughton''s half seasons are  25 points ---> 19 points --> 19 points. Hopefully he takes us back forward with an excellent second half to this season.[/quote]Sorry I should have explained this, City 2nd was bemoaning the fact earlier in the thread that we had only won 15 games in a season and a half which he claimed to be some sort of disaster. I simply researched the other teams and found that this was actually par for the course for us and our peers. Look back and you will see the figures.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Would be interesting to know how many games City2nd expects a midtable PL team to win.

 

 

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]Sorry I should have explained this, City 2nd was bemoaning the fact earlier in the thread that we had only won 15 games in a season and a half which he claimed to be some sort of disaster. I simply researched the other teams and found that this was actually par for the course for us and our peers. Look back and you will see the figures.[/quote]Ah ok, I saw that stat but didn''t think it was particularly bad.  We are hanging around a few points above the drop zone for the majority of that time after all.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,507]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]Lets add the last game of 2012 to those stats to make them more comparable to a full season.2nd half of last seasonPlayed 19 Won 4 Drawn 7 Lost 8 For 21 Against 30 Points 191st half of this seasonPlayed 19 Won 5 Drawn 4 Lost 10 For 16 Against 32 Points 19The Full 2013 ( + last game of 2012)Played 38 Won 9 Drawn 11 Lost 18 For 35 Against 62 Points 38[/quote]It''s just barely off the pace and doesn''t take into account the amount of disruption we''ve had from injuries, particularly in midfield, this first half the season. That''s what has been at the root of not being that consistent this half of the season.

[ricardo 7,339]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]Sorry I should have explained this, City 2nd was bemoaning the fact earlier in the thread that we had only won 15 games in a season and a half which he claimed to be some sort of disaster. I simply researched the other teams and found that this was actually par for the course for us and our peers. Look back and you will see the figures.[/quote]Ah ok, I saw that stat but didn''t think it was particularly bad.  We are hanging around a few points above the drop zone for the majority of that time after all. [/quote]This seems to be the reality that you find unacceptable. For my part I believe it is the cold reality for a club of our stature and perhaps the reason I''m not disappointed is because I didn''t expect things to be very different. My prediction for this season was 44 points but now I think we will get less than this, probably 38-40 which I think will be enough.I''ts always going to be hard for us in this league because even if we spend money to improve, so will everyone else. The fun part is getting to the Premier League, not so much being in it.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]I''ts always going to be hard for us in this league because even if we spend money to improve, so will everyone else. The fun part is getting to the Premier League, not so much being in it.[/quote]That''s where you and me disagree, I see no reason we can''t be sitting on 25 points safely in mid table. A good manager can improve the squad, as Hughton has, and get the side playing well.  We are not in a situation like Sunderland, on the decline, or have a weak squad like Palace, or left ourselves without enough backup like West Ham.  We haven''t even had any of our better players poached.