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2013: the facts

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Norwich''s Premier League results in 2013Played 37 Won 9 Drawn 11 Lost 17 For 34 Against 58 Points 38What''s interesting is that this season is almost exactly the same as the awful second half of last season:

2013 (2012/13 Season)Played 18 Won 4 Drawn 7 Lost 7 For 18 Against 26 Points 192013 (2013/14 Season)Played 19 Won 5 Drawn 4 Lost 10 For 16 Against 32 Points 19There is absolutely no glimmer of improvement, despite the millions spent in the summer. Given that injection of talent, the consistent lack of goals in 2013 has to be related to the way the management set us up to play – tactics, not personnel.

I cannot see how a managerial team can keep their

jobs based on those figures. The only positive is that 38 points would''ve kept

us up last season and, arguably, we aren''t getting any worse.

Here''s to a glimmer of improvement in 2014. Happy New Year everyone.

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Lets add the last game of 2012 to those stats to make them more comparable to a full season.2nd half of last seasonPlayed 19 Won 4 Drawn 7 Lost 8 For 21 Against 30 Points 191st half of this seasonPlayed 19 Won 5 Drawn 4 Lost 10 For 16 Against 32 Points 19The Full 2013 ( + last game of 2012)Played 38 Won 9 Drawn 11 Lost 18 For 35 Against 62 Points 38

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Awful reading is''t it? But hey, lets not forget that ten game run he had over a year ago now!

Christmas is a time for miracles and Hughton is a shining example of this after managing to keep his job where every other manager with similar records have lost theirs.

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[quote user="JF"]Awful reading is''t it? But hey, lets not forget that ten game run he had over a year ago now!

Christmas is a time for miracles and Hughton is a shining example of this after managing to keep his job where every other manager with similar records have lost theirs.[/quote]Paul Lambert has a worse record than Chris Hughton despite being at a "bigger club".

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Paul Lambert has a worse record than Chris Hughton despite being at a "bigger club".

And if you read their forums they are pretty much united in wanting him out. It will be interesting to see who''s board acts first.

Both will be managing in the championship next season.

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[quote user=" Zak Van Cartman"]Paul Lambert has a worse record than Chris Hughton despite being at a "bigger club".[/quote]I would hazard a guess, not in 2013.  Not that it matters, he left us so who cares.  P18 W6 D4 L8  Pts 22P19 W5 D5 L9 Pts 20Lambert 42 to Hughton 38Adding the last game in 2012 we getP18 W6 D4 L9  Pts 22P19 W5 D5 L9 Pts 20Lambert 42 to Hughton 38

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Just to put it into context I have done a direct comparison with the clubs around us using the same time periodVilla         43Swansea  42W Ham    39City         38Fulham     37Stoke       35WBA       34Sundlnd    31So pretty much par for the course within our peer group.

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Just to put it into context for Hughton. 4 of those have changed their manager and Allardyce is hanging onto his by a thread. No one here knows just how close Lambert is coming either.

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[quote user="ricardo"]Just to put it into context I have done a direct comparison with the clubs around us using the same time periodVilla         43Swansea  42W Ham    39City         38Fulham     37Stoke       35WBA       34Sundlnd    31So pretty much par for the course within our peer group.

[/quote]Sunderland, West Brom, Stoke and Fulham all sacked their manager.  Looks like Allardyce and Hughton are hanging by a thread, a few poor results and either could be out.

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And the 4 who sacked their manager are still the ones with the lowest points haul despite their managerial changes having been some games or even months ago ( with the exception of WBA who still have not appointed anyone at all).

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So you havn''t seen any improvement in Sunderland or Palace since the change of manager then?

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]Just to put it into context I have done a direct comparison with the clubs around us using the same time periodVilla         43Swansea  42W Ham    39City         38Fulham     37Stoke       35WBA       34Sundlnd    31So pretty much par for the course within our peer group.

[/quote]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517Sunderland, West Brom, Stoke and Fulham all sacked their manager.  Looks like Allardyce and Hughton are hanging by a thread, a few poor results and either could be out.[/quote]However, we know that sacking a manager makes no difference to the results. Plenty of studies have proven this beyond dispute.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517

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[quote user="whoareyou"]And the 4 who sacked their manager are still the ones with the lowest points haul despite their managerial changes having been some games or even months ago ( with the exception of WBA who still have not appointed anyone at all).

[/quote]Stoke are now a couple of points and a game in hand above us in the league right...    West Brom are 1 point behind. 

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[quote user="ricardo"]However, we know that sacking a manager makes no difference to the results. Plenty of studies have proven this beyond dispute.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517

[/quote]That study showed that sacking a manager after a series of four poor results (compared to the season overall) made little difference to the following four results.  Sorry, what were you trying to prove again?

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Both Palace and Sunderland look to have given themselves a real chance with the new managers. Poyet i wanted here, not so much Pulis but you can''t argue that they are now performing and out match their will be no ride in the park now.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]However, we know that sacking a manager makes no difference to the results. Plenty of studies have proven this beyond dispute.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517

[/quote]That study showed that sacking a manager after a series of four poor results (compared to the season overall) made little difference to the following four results.  Sorry, what were you trying to prove again?[/quote]I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite plainly it doesn''t. Teams will have little runs of good and bad results but the results will always regress to the mean.If there was any evidence to support the premise that a new manager would guarantee we stayed up I would be demonstrating outside CR this morning but it doesn''t.So I won''t.

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[quote user="JF"]So you havn''t seen any improvement in Sunderland or Palace since the change of manager then?[/quote]In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points.

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Interesting debate "the does sacking the manager change anything."

Surely timing is important - give a new manager some cash and a transfer window and he has more chance of making a difference.

If sacking the manager made no difference, do we consider Gunn would have taken us to the Premier?

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In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points.

So you have them both as already down and only one spot left to fill? A few weeks ago I would have agreed, but not now.

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[quote user="ricardo"]I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking

a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite

plainly it doesn''t.If there was any evidence to support the premise that a new manager would guarantee we stayed up I would be demonstrating outside CR this morning but it doesn''t.[/quote]What, you brought out some crap study to back up your point.There are no guarantees with a new manager. But as Tony Pulis is showing at Palace, Pochettino at Southampton, and Lambert at NCFC, the right man can make a difference.I guess it depends on whether you think Hughton is getting the best out of Norwich City with 38 points in the last 38 games. Or if you think we are capable of more than this.  When our injuries clear I think we will do slightly better and ease away from the drop zone, but given no sides are falling away this year it is going to be a very tough season.I have stated my position all along, I think Chris Hughton has signed excellent players, but he is incapable of getting the best from them. That leaves me in a quandary and is why I have not once called for him to go.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="JF"]So you havn''t seen any improvement in Sunderland or Palace since the change of manager then?[/quote]In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points.[/quote]I wouldn''t speak too soon, lost at Selhurst Park on Wednesday, and we are below them in the table.  And Tony Pulis has never been relegated, quite a feat given he took over many of the clubs he managed while they were in a relegation battle.

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I very rarely post on here nowadays, it just seems to be a few very vocal ''fans'' making all the noise. From my point of view (for what its worth) I think we should stick with CH.

Why?

Firstly he has had a horrific run of injuries to his first team - at one point we had Tettey, Pilkington, Elliott Bennett, Snodgrass and van Wolfswinkel all out. That is 50% of your outfield ''first'' team. Most teams would struggle with those injuries to key players.

Secondly those ''fans'' who continually harp on about the 26 million or whatever we spent. Wake up! Most teams are spending that sort of money this season - if not they have spent much more in previous seasons and have a settled squad. What we thought was going to be a stand out Premier player is actually in the present time quite ''run of the mill''.

Thirdly - the ''Messiah'' Yawn!!!! Paul Lambert was brilliant for us and I think he was instrumental in taking us to the Premier league for which I am eternally grateful BUT the PL is a different ball game (sic) and perhaps his tactics are not suitable and he is being found out. Look at Neil Warnock fantastic at getting out of the Championship but that is it. CH WILL come good when he has a full squad.

Finally - Malky I remember well when we were promoted and sold Malky and kept Fleming and, like every other fan, thought we had sold the wrong man. But does that make him right for us now? I don''t think so. Fantastic talismanic player but so was Bryan Gunn.

I for one will continue to support CH. Yesterday was a fine example of how things don''t go for you - we should have had at least a point but for a criminally heart-breaking deflection. Some games we have looked despondent actually quite poor but there has been signs that we can and will improve.

Keep the faith!!!!

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]I don''t need to prove anything, it''s you that need to prove that sacking

a manager improves your results and chances of staying up. Quite

plainly it doesn''t.If there was any evidence to support the premise that a new manager would guarantee we stayed up I would be demonstrating outside CR this morning but it doesn''t.[/quote]What, you brought out some crap study to back up your point.There are no guarantees with a new manager. But as Tony Pulis is showing at Palace, Pochettino at Southampton, and Lambert at NCFC, the right man can make a difference.I guess it depends on whether you think Hughton is getting the best out of Norwich City with 38 points in the last 38 games. Or if you think we are capable of more than this.  When our injuries clear I think we will do slightly better and ease away from the drop zone, but given no sides are falling away this year it is going to be a very tough season.I have stated my position all along, I think Chris Hughton has signed excellent players, but he is incapable of getting the best from them. That leaves me in a quandary and is why I have not once called for him to go.[/quote]So you don''t rate the manager? so what''s new? You are not alone.The Board obviuosly disagree with you or they would already have acted. CH is here for the long term and barring cataclysmic results (which don''t look likely) he will still be here in May. You may not have that confidence but they do and they are the only ones that count.  People have been calling for his head most of the season and I took plenty of stick when I said he would still be here in the new year. If he keeps us up he will have done his job, if not he will go but I see virtually no possibility of him being shown the door during this current season.I might turn out to be wrong but I have a reputation of being more right than wrong and I think I will be right again this time.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="JF"]So you havn''t seen any improvement in Sunderland or Palace since the change of manager then?[/quote]In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points.[/quote]I wouldn''t speak too soon, lost at Selhurst Park on Wednesday, and we are below them in the table.  And Tony Pulis has never been relegated, quite a feat given he took over many of the clubs he managed while they were in a relegation battle.[/quote]I would be quite happy to bet on it and if you like you can remind me of it at the end of the season. I will say it again, neither Palace nor Sunderland will get 36 points.

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I don''t know why you believe that, do you have some inside knowledge of the boards thinking you could share? The way I see it is Palace is now a must win match, lose that and we are bang in trouble and I can''t see how the board could stick by him.

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I would be quite happy to bet on it and if you like you can remind me of it at the end of the season. I will say it again, neither Palace nor Sunderland will get 36 points.

I hope you are right but you are coming across as being quite complacent in your opinions, I hope the board are not sharing this. If Palace beat us Wednesday we are on the same points yet they wont reach 36 and we will?

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morty wrote the following post at 29/12/2013 11:28 AM:

In my experience, Ricardo had been more right than wrong in these matters.

And I really hope he is again. I just can''t agree with writing of a team that will be level on points with us if they beat us who have just appointed a proven PL manager who has consistently done enough.

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[quote user="JF"]In the long term it will make no difference to their positions. Neither team will get 36 points.

So you have them both as already down and only one spot left to fill? A few weeks ago I would have agreed, but not now.[/quote]No old son, if you''ve been following what I said on the relegation predictions you would know that I have already stated that at least 5 clubs won''t get 40 points. Looking at the table now it could be as many as 7 clubs don''t get 40 points. How that turns into positions is still up in the air, this season will be tighter than most and teams may survive with as few as 34 points. It''s all yet to play out.

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