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Ricardo's Xmas relegation predictions 2013/14

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Regular posters will know by now about my thesis that the teams who have not averaged 1 point a game after 12 matches are the relegation candidates. In EVERY Premier season 2 of these teams have ALWAYS been relegated. Teams occasionally drop from higher up the table but not very oftenThe only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93  Middsboro  16 points94/95  Norwich      19 points96/97  Middsboro  13 points97/98  Palace         15 points98/99  Charlton      15 points00/01  Man City     14 points07/08  Reading       13 points08/09  Middsboro  17 points09/10  Hull City      16 points10/11  Blackpool    14 pointsThe teams with less than a point a game after a dozen games this season are:-Norwich    11 pointsW Ham     10 pointsFulham      10 pointsPalace         7 pointsSunderland  7 pointsIn the 7 games since the 12 game mark only Norwich and Palace have managed to achieve a plus 1 ppg average. Palace +9, Norwich +8 Sunderland +7  Fulham +6  W Ham +5 which shows the Palace and Sunderland so called revival to be largely based on evidence from a very narrow window. Eventually all things revert to the mean.In my November post ( Ricky''s early relegation predictions 2013/14) I also stated this:- This season the gap to the next group of clubs, (Cardiff, Hull,Stoke

and perhaps Villa) is still very tight and 2 of them are promoted clubs

that have had unexpectedly good starts.
After seven further games, all of this still remains true and is further evidence for my thesis that the table is soon set in stone with very little up or down movement. Also we now have to count WBA as in the mix.At Xmas last year I claimed that QPR and Reading would CERTAINLY be relegated but that the third relegation candidate was a toss up between Villa, Southampton and Wigan. Despite many believers in Harry Houdini, I got that call dead right. For the third spot I thought Wigan''s experience might save them but you can''t dodge the reaper forever so I mark last seasons predictions as two and a third out of three.This season because of the condensed nature of the entire bottom half of the league I''m not yet prepared to go out on a limb with anything like the same degree of certainty. What seems clear to me however is that 40 points won''t be needed for safety unless there are some remarkable results when bottom half play top half. It doesn''t seem likely to me and I now feel that safety could be 36 points or even lower. If things continue as they are then between 5 and 7 teams won''t get 40 points.At this stage last season there were 5 teams with less than a point per game average. All three subsequently relegated teams were in this group. This year we have  WBA, Cardiff, Palace, Fulham, W Ham and Sunderland. I think it has to come from this group. IMO City, Villa and Stoke may just do enough to stay out of the mix. I would hate to be forced to have a bet in this race but my honest opinion for what it''s worth is:-CardiffPalaceWest Ham.But don''t count on it[;)]

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[quote user="ricardo"]Regular posters will know by now about my thesis that the teams who have not averaged 1 point a game after 12 matches are the relegation candidates. In EVERY Premier season 2 of these teams have ALWAYS been relegated. Teams occasionally drop from higher up the table but not very often

The only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-

92/93  Middsboro  16 points
94/95  Norwich      19 points
96/97  Middsboro  13 points
97/98  Palace         15 points
98/99  Charlton      15 points
00/01  Man City     14 points
07/08  Reading       13 points
08/09  Middsboro  17 points
09/10  Hull City      16 points
10/11  Blackpool    14 points

The teams with less than a point a game after a dozen games this season are:-

Norwich    11 points
W Ham     10 points
Fulham      10 points
Palace         7 points
Sunderland  7 points

In the 7 games since the 12 game mark only Norwich and Palace have managed to achieve a plus 1 ppg average. Palace +9, Norwich +8 Sunderland +7  Fulham +6  W Ham +5 which shows the Palace and Sunderland so called revival to be largely based on evidence from a very narrow window. Eventually all things revert to the mean.

In my November post ( Ricky''s early relegation predictions 2013/14) I also stated this:-

 This season the gap to the next group of clubs, (Cardiff, Hull,Stoke and perhaps Villa) is still very tight and 2 of them are promoted clubs that have had unexpectedly good starts.

After seven further games, all of this still remains true and is further evidence for my thesis that the table is soon set in stone with very little up or down movement. Also we now have to count WBA as in the mix.

At Xmas last year I claimed that QPR and Reading would CERTAINLY be relegated but that the third relegation candidate was a toss up between Villa, Southampton and Wigan. Despite many believers in Harry Houdini, I got that call dead right. For the third spot I thought Wigan''s experience might save them but you can''t dodge the reaper forever so I mark last seasons predictions as two and a third out of three.

This season because of the condensed nature of the entire bottom half of the league I''m not yet prepared to go out on a limb with anything like the same degree of certainty. What seems clear to me however is that 40 points won''t be needed for safety unless there are some remarkable results when bottom half play top half. It doesn''t seem likely to me and I now feel that safety could be 36 points or even lower. If things continue as they are then between 5 and 7 teams won''t get 40 points.

At this stage last season there were 5 teams with less than a point per game average. All three subsequently relegated teams were in this group. This year we have  WBA, Cardiff, Palace, Fulham, W Ham and Sunderland. I think it has to come from this group. IMO City, Villa and Stoke may just do enough to stay out of the mix. I would hate to be forced to have a bet in this race but my honest opinion for what it''s worth is:-

Cardiff
Palace
West Ham.

But don''t count on it[;)]


[/quote]

 

For what it''s worth Ricardo, I am going to count on it. I did something similar on an earlier thread. If you are wrong, I''m gonna be after ya! [:)]

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Great post Ric.Cant argue with the stats on this one. The only difference from this season to last is that there were 4-5 poor teams, whereas this season in my opinion there are as many as 10. Points difference teams pos. Arsenal (1-10) Hull = 19 Swansea (11-20) Sunderland = 7 pointslast season. Man utd (1-10) Liverpool = 21 Norwich (11-20) = 15 pointsSo there is no outright candidate you can say will quite possibly go down but more of a chance to establish a team as a ''Mid-table'' team.Sunderland - have quality, just cant get results...West ham - Big trouble, is carlton cole really going to get the goals to keep them up, im not so sure...home form crucialFulham - new manager form has passed, look very suspect at back.....need to keep hanging on to pack...Palace - Dark horses to stay up, now with belief....need to keep scoring, cant help but think they will crumble.Cardiff - Troubled. Does the owner know the current league position their in? Could fall away, could climb with home form...West brom - Similar situation to ourselves in a unusual kind of way, all be it shaky, still have quality..Norwich - Have to improve results against teams around us. Home form always been stable, away form key?Villa - Last years team w/o the firing Benteke. Need to invest in Jan.Stoke - League position a bit misleading. Always look poor and seem very lucky this season alone.Swansea - Not the team they were last year, maybe distracted with Europe. Good enough manager to keep them up and away from the scrap.  If i had to pick.CardiffFulhamPalace

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The existing management team will see us return to the championship; change before the transfer window and there is still a chance of surviving but that decision is months overdue.

For the record

Norwich, Cardiff, Palace

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]The existing management team will see us return to the championship; change before the transfer window and there is still a chance of surviving but that decision is months overdue.

For the record

Norwich, Cardiff, Palace[/quote]You truly are a miserable individual!!

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@ricardo - going back to your OP and teams that have an average of less than 1 point per game after 12 games.Can you say how teams that were in this position but escaped relegation performed (in terms of points per game) during:
  1. Mid season
  2. Run in

Also, the teams from higher up that have been relegation - how dramatic has been their decline in performance over the same period to drop them into trouble?

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Despite my complete lack of faith in Hughton and his management team, I am now convinced that he''ll be here at the end of the season regardless of what division we''re starting next season in. I also have come around to the idea that we will somehow manage to stay up this season, largely due to the fact that at the end of the day, Sunderland, West Ham and Cardiff will be worse than us over 38 games.

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[quote user="Satoshi Nakamoto"]@ricardo - going back to your OP and teams that have an average of less than 1 point per game after 12 games.Can you say how teams that were in this position but escaped relegation performed (in terms of points per game) during:
  1. Mid season
  2. Run in

Also, the teams from higher up that have been relegation - how dramatic has been their decline in performance over the same period to drop them into trouble?

[/quote]I will look into it and get back to you when I''ve done a bit of research.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]The existing management team will see us return to the championship; change before the transfer window and there is still a chance of surviving but that decision is months overdue.

For the record

Norwich, Cardiff, Palace[/quote]

I have to agree with Morty, life must be a real trial for you Highland. How you''ve managed to stick at being a NCFC supporter with that sense of doom continually hanging over your head is a mystery to me.IIRC you were the one pumping the Harry Houdini myth after his most ardent admirers had long given up the ghost. You also refused to believe we would be o.k. when I stated categorically last Xmas that we wouldn''t go down. Perhaps your contrarian attitude gives you some form of comfort but at least we can be sure that your predictions of doom have always been wrong and that gives us all something positive to cling to.[:D]

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[quote user="ROBFLECK"]One thing''s for sure...WE MUST BEAT THE LIKES OF PALACE TO STAY UP! At least that''s my opinion...[/quote]

[Y]

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[quote user="morty"][quote user="Highland Canary"]The existing management team will see us return to the championship; change before the transfer window and there is still a chance of surviving but that decision is months overdue.

For the record

Norwich, Cardiff, Palace[/quote]You truly are a miserable individual!![/quote]

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion Morty but so is Highland Canary.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]Lets hope you are right, because if we somehow contrive to lose at Palace on Wednesday we fall below your ''relegation certainties'' whatever that means in the grand scheme of things.[/quote]Unlike last season I have named no certanties this season and should we fall below the line it still won''t be a certainty. The only certainty is that 2 of the 5 will go down (unless this season is unlike all the others). The third team will most likely come from those 5 but it''s not a certainty by any means.

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[quote user="TIL 1010"]

[quote user="ROBFLECK"]One thing''s for sure...WE MUST BEAT THE LIKES OF PALACE TO STAY UP! At least that''s my opinion...[/quote]

[Y]

[/quote]

 

I thought we did....

 

 

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[quote user="Satoshi Nakamoto"]@ricardo - going back to your OP and teams that have an average of less than 1 point per game after 12 games.Can you say how teams that were in this position but escaped relegation performed (in terms of points per game) during:
  1. Mid season
  2. Run in

Also, the teams from higher up that have been relegation - how dramatic has been their decline in performance over the same period to drop them into trouble?

[/quote]To answer the first part of your query Satoshi, I have split the points totals at 12 games, halfway and final table. I have also omitted 92/93 and 94/95 because these are no directly comparable being under the 42 games per season period.

                                          12 Games                Halfway                   Final Points    Points Ave game 20-38Middlesboro 96/7                    13                             19                            39                  1.05Palace   97/8                           15                              21                            33                    .63Charlton 98/9                          15                              16                            36                  1.05Man City 00/01                        14                              18                            34                    .84Reading  07/08                       13                              22                            36                    .73Middlesboro 08/09                 17                              20                            32                    .63Hull 09/10                               16                               17                            30                    .68Blackpool 10/11                     14                               25                            39                    .73

Middlesboro 96/7 and Blackpool 10/11 kept a point average all season but were relegated in a season when a high number of points were neededReading Man City Middlesboro 08/9 and Palace 97/8 all seem to have kept their heads above water until the halfway stage then they fell apart.Charlton and Hull both started well but collapsed before halfway with only 1 point gained in 7 games. Hull continued to collapse through the second half of the season while Charlton revived to take 20 points from the last 19 games but had lost too much ground  between 12 games and halfway.

So the answer is that there are several ways to collapse after a good opening 12 games but in 18 complete Premier League season since the reduction to 20 clubs, of  54 relegated teams only 8 had more than a point a game after a dozen games. (and 2 of those were unlucky to find themselves relegated with a high total points score)

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I like your predictions Ricardo, but I''ve never understood the significance of 12 matches. For me, it''s always been the first 19, when all the other teams have been played. My three at the bottom would be:

Cardiff

Fulham

Palace

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I really don''t think sunderland can do what west brom did in 2005 (1).

Cardiff are a mess (2)

palace have never survived in the premier league and I''m not expecting them to start any time soon (3)

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-----ricardo-----

Unlike last season I have named no certanties this season and should we fall below the line it still won''t be a certainty. The only certainty is that 2 of the 5 will go down (unless this season is unlike all the others). The third team will most likely come from those 5 but it''s not a certainty by any means.

--------------------

Last season QPR and Reading were dead and buried on 10 points from 19 games. Nobody is in anywhere near a similar position this season. As you say, any of this bottom half could drop and a shrewd January signing could pull even a poor side like Sunderland out of the drop zone.

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[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]-----ricardo-----

Unlike last season I have named no certanties this season and should we fall below the line it still won''t be a certainty. The only certainty is that 2 of the 5 will go down (unless this season is unlike all the others). The third team will most likely come from those 5 but it''s not a certainty by any means.

--------------------

Last season QPR and Reading were dead and buried on 10 points from 19 games. Nobody is in anywhere near a similar position this season. As you say, any of this bottom half could drop and a shrewd January signing could pull even a poor side like Sunderland out of the drop zone.[/quote]The reason I''ve been hesitant about Sunderland CJH, is because I''ve looked at their remaining fixtures. The have 10 remaining home games and so far they have only played us and Fulham. Still, having said that, they have yet to beat anyone in the bottom half of the league. Surely that has to end. The reason I''ve gone for WHam  instead is because they still have to play the top 4 away and the majority of their home games are against 5th down to 11th. That looks beyond them to me.

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[quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]I like your predictions Ricardo, but I''ve never understood the significance of 12 matches. For me, it''s always been the first 19, when all the other teams have been played. My three at the bottom would be:

Cardiff

Fulham

Palace[/quote]It''s simply because I''ve looked for the earliest possible time it is sensible to make a call. My thesis is that the table quickly becomes set in stone and the figures over all Prem seasons seem to confirm this.

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If you look at it from a purely PPG point of view it is interesting.

Of course it depends on the number of points required to stay up.

At 30 or 31 points per game Sunderland (0.74) and West Ham (0.79) already need more points per game in the second half of the season than they managed in the first.

At 33 to 35 both Fulham (0.84) and Palace (0.84) start to need to get more PPG than they did in the first half of the season.

At 37 both Cardiff (0.95) and West Brom (0.95) need more PPG than the first half of the season

Norwich don''t come into that factor until 38 points. when you consider that in 12 out of the last 18 seasons (67%) 36 points (with a good enough goal difference) was enough to stay up, 36 points is only 4 wins and 5 draws away. whereas the bottom four clubs need 20 points or more (5 wins 5 draws) and that''s just to get to 36 points.

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Methinks you''ve got too much time on yer hands Dicky Boy,you need to get down to Merzanos a bit more.Happy New Year.

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[quote user="Les"]Methinks you''ve got too much time on yer hands Dicky Boy,you need to get down to Merzanos a bit more.Happy New Year.[/quote]When you retire like me you''ll find you have plenty of time you lucky boy. Until then keeping paying your taxes, I want a pension rise come April.[;)]

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[quote user="ricardo"]Regular posters will know by now about my thesis that the teams who have not averaged 1 point a game after 12 matches are the relegation candidates. In EVERY Premier season 2 of these teams have ALWAYS been relegated. Teams occasionally drop from higher up the table but not very oftenThe only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93  Middsboro  16 points94/95  Norwich      19 points96/97  Middsboro  13 points97/98  Palace         15 points98/99  Charlton      15 points00/01  Man City     14 points07/08  Reading       13 points08/09  Middsboro  17 points09/10  Hull City      16 points10/11  Blackpool    14 pointsThe teams with less than a point a game after a dozen games this season are:-Norwich    11 pointsW Ham     10 pointsFulham      10 pointsPalace         7 pointsSunderland  7 pointsIn the 7 games since the 12 game mark only Norwich and Palace have managed to achieve a plus 1 ppg average. Palace +9, Norwich +8 Sunderland +7  Fulham +6  W Ham +5 which shows the Palace and Sunderland so called revival to be largely based on evidence from a very narrow window. Eventually all things revert to the mean.In my November post ( Ricky''s early relegation predictions 2013/14) I also stated this:- This season the gap to the next group of clubs, (Cardiff, Hull,Stoke

and perhaps Villa) is still very tight and 2 of them are promoted clubs

that have had unexpectedly good starts.
After seven further games, all of this still remains true and is further evidence for my thesis that the table is soon set in stone with very little up or down movement. Also we now have to count WBA as in the mix.At Xmas last year I claimed that QPR and Reading would CERTAINLY be relegated but that the third relegation candidate was a toss up between Villa, Southampton and Wigan. Despite many believers in Harry Houdini, I got that call dead right. For the third spot I thought Wigan''s experience might save them but you can''t dodge the reaper forever so I mark last seasons predictions as two and a third out of three.This season because of the condensed nature of the entire bottom half of the league I''m not yet prepared to go out on a limb with anything like the same degree of certainty. What seems clear to me however is that 40 points won''t be needed for safety unless there are some remarkable results when bottom half play top half. It doesn''t seem likely to me and I now feel that safety could be 36 points or even lower. If things continue as they are then between 5 and 7 teams won''t get 40 points.At this stage last season there were 5 teams with less than a point per game average. All three subsequently relegated teams were in this group. This year we have  WBA, Cardiff, Palace, Fulham, W Ham and Sunderland. I think it has to come from this group. IMO City, Villa and Stoke may just do enough to stay out of the mix. I would hate to be forced to have a bet in this race but my honest opinion for what it''s worth is:-CardiffPalaceWest Ham.But don''t count on it[;)]

[/quote]If it does end up being that congested (and I suspect it will) then Goal Difference may well separate some teams. The last time a team got relegated from the Premier League that way was 2007-08, when Fulham stayed up on 36 points and Reading went down. Fulham''s GD of -22 beating Reading''s of -25.

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Hi Ricardo,Thanks for that.  If nothing else it has made me feel a little more optimistic :-)Is there also a "trigger level" of negative goal difference that significantly increases the possibility of relegation?I know we''d all like a large positive goal difference, but I''m wondering if among the relegation candidates after 12 games (and at other stages of the season) there is a threshold level of goal difference which indicates likelihood of relegation.Also is there any indication that changing the manager mid - season makes a significant difference to possibility of relegation (I suspect not, but it would be interesting to have it confirmed)?Finally - what is the lowest number of points that has been required for survival in the premiership thus far, and what is the previous season that is most similar to this one in terms of points distribution and what was the number of points required for survival then?

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Good day, Bad day or status quo?Big wins for villa, brom and a huge win for fulham.Still the chance to establish the ''mid-table'' teams this season.As for norwich, so-so. we are very much in the gap between this... cant help but think the chance is there for us to keep well away from the scrap..

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