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lake district canary

Goal difference....

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....that everyone was complaining about a few weeks ago, is improving in relation to the teams below us. Evening out over the course of the season - and as we improve - which I believe we will, especially as other players get fit - this sore left over from the MC and L''pl matches does not look so bad. 

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Well we certainly haven''t improved our GD over the last five games......it''s minus two!! We''ll need one hell of a goal barrage to claw back those hammerings.I''m afraid viewing things through those rose-tinted specs of yours ignores the fact that improvement is mere speculation. Of course we should improve if all our injured players get fit but we only have to look at today''s injury to Michael Turner to see that it cuts both ways. Some will return, others will become injured.It''s all very well thinking it''ll all turn out all right in the end but these are worrying times for NCFC. 

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10 games ago Palce City and Sunderland had the worst GD''S. Over the last 10 games only worsening by 1,2 and 3.In that time Fulham have declined by 16, Cardiff by 13 and WHam by 11.

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[quote user="......and Smith must score."]Well we certainly haven''t improved our GD over the last five games......it''s minus two!! We''ll need one hell of a goal barrage to claw back those hammerings.I''m afraid viewing things through those rose-tinted specs of yours ignores the fact that improvement is mere speculation. Of course we should improve if all our injured players get fit but we only have to look at today''s injury to Michael Turner to see that it cuts both ways. Some will return, others will become injured.It''s all very well thinking it''ll all turn out all right in the end but these are worrying times for NCFC.  [/quote]Only worrying if you were expecting it to be different.

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I''ve noticed this too. Taking away the heavy defeats in games we would probably have lost anyway we have a positive goasl difference against the rest. And whilst heavy defeats are always damaging they are far more damging if they happen against the teams around you.

 

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="......and Smith must score."]Well we certainly haven''t improved our GD over the last five games......it''s minus two!! We''ll need one hell of a goal barrage to claw back those hammerings.I''m afraid viewing things through those rose-tinted specs of yours ignores the fact that improvement is mere speculation. Of course we should improve if all our injured players get fit but we only have to look at today''s injury to Michael Turner to see that it cuts both ways. Some will return, others will become injured.It''s all very well thinking it''ll all turn out all right in the end but these are worrying times for NCFC.  [/quote]Only worrying if you were expecting it to be different.[/quote]Well, considering the calibre of player that Hughton has brought in I don''t think it''s unreasonable to expect things to be a bit better this season, do you Ricardo ?

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[quote user="lake district canary"]....that everyone was complaining about a few weeks ago, is improving in relation to the teams below us. Evening out over the course of the season - and as we improve - which I believe we will, especially as other players get fit - this sore left over from the MC and L''pl matches does not look so bad. [/quote]

Wow! You are great at taking optimism to the extreme. We are playing some absolute sh**e and you are talking about goal difference - and the clapping will continue as we slip slowly into the relegation zone.

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OK then LDC we have Everton,Hull and Newcastle coming up in the next 3 League games so based on this blind faith that you have that things will improve please predict how many points we will get from these games.I  used to think that Doomcaster and Munby were the masters of spin in adversity but you pal really take the biscuit.

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[quote user="TIL 1010"]OK then LDC we have Everton,Hull and Newcastle coming up in the next 3 League games so based on this blind faith that you have that things will improve please predict how many points we will get from these games.I  used to think that Doomcaster and Munby were the masters of spin in adversity but you pal really take the biscuit.[/quote]

Its not blind faith though, is it.  Its based on things that happen.   Was anybody criticising the first half performance against MU?  That was terrific.  The second half MU had the quality to pick it up and we couldn''t match it, but that''s football.   We have some of our best players injured. That doesn''t help continued team development.  

Its a battle. Its a struggle.  Its whatever you want to call it.  But we got an away point today - it would have been good enough under Lambert - but under Hughton, away points are somehow turned into defeats and reasons to be depressed.  

I''ll predict a draw at Everton a win against Hull and a defeat against Newcastle.   That would give us four points from three matches.  It wouldn''t be great, but it wouldn''t be bad.   It will carry on the keeping the goal difference respectable (which is what the thread was about) and keep us on track.

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[quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="......and Smith must score."]Well we certainly haven''t improved our GD over the last five games......it''s minus two!! We''ll need one hell of a goal barrage to claw back those hammerings.I''m afraid viewing things through those rose-tinted specs of yours ignores the fact that improvement is mere speculation. Of course we should improve if all our injured players get fit but we only have to look at today''s injury to Michael Turner to see that it cuts both ways. Some will return, others will become injured.It''s all very well thinking it''ll all turn out all right in the end but these are worrying times for NCFC.  [/quote]Only worrying if you were expecting it to be different.[/quote]Well, considering the calibre of player that Hughton has brought in I don''t think it''s unreasonable to expect things to be a bit better this season, do you Ricardo ?[/quote]That''s where you and I differ. I wasn''t expecting top 10 more like 13th to 15th. and it won''t be very far off that. We are slightly worse off than where I expected us to be but so are many other clubs. There is a bigger disconnect between top and bottom half this season.

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Well done for having a go Lakey. Predicting is difficult in this league. I reckon we can beat Newcastle and Hull so if we get your point at Everton that would give us 7/9! But I''m not going to get carried away so I''ll predict 4/5 points from those 3 games. Is it just me and you playing this game....

 

 

 

 

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Goal difference is irrelevent and obsessed about far too much. There are only a handful of occasions where Goal Difference has made a difference. The vast majority of the time league position is decided by points and not the tie-breaker. Its main use is as an indicator of where your problems lie. I think only one team has ever been relegated on Goal Difference since the Premier League was formed (though happy to be corrected on this). Its certainly a rarity compared to how many teams have been relegated for having fewer points than other teams. It might sort out the mid-table league standings which of course has an impact on prize money, but in the grand scheme of things its pretty unimportant

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[quote user="The Great Mass Debater"]Goal difference is irrelevent and obsessed about far too much. There are only a handful of occasions where Goal Difference has made a difference. The vast majority of the time league position is decided by points and not the tie-breaker. Its main use is as an indicator of where your problems lie. I think only one team has ever been relegated on Goal Difference since the Premier League was formed (though happy to be corrected on this). Its certainly a rarity compared to how many teams have been relegated for having fewer points than other teams. It might sort out the mid-table league standings which of course has an impact on prize money, but in the grand scheme of things its pretty unimportant[/quote]

It may not be that significant in the scheme of things, but when it looked so bad earlier - and it did look bad - it now seems we have steadied that particular ship.   It was also one of the things used to bash Hughton with at the time.    We no longer stand out as having a horrendous goal difference as compared to our rivals.    That at least can be recognised and with just a little improvement and a win or two, goal difference can carry on improving.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="......and Smith must score."]Well we certainly haven''t improved our GD over the last five games......it''s minus two!! We''ll need one hell of a goal barrage to claw back those hammerings.I''m afraid viewing things through those rose-tinted specs of yours ignores the fact that improvement is mere speculation. Of course we should improve if all our injured players get fit but we only have to look at today''s injury to Michael Turner to see that it cuts both ways. Some will return, others will become injured.It''s all very well thinking it''ll all turn out all right in the end but these are worrying times for NCFC.  [/quote]Only worrying if you were expecting it to be different.[/quote]Well, considering the calibre of player that Hughton has brought in I don''t think it''s unreasonable to expect things to be a bit better this season, do you Ricardo ?[/quote]

That''s where you and I differ. I wasn''t expecting top 10 more like 13th to 15th. and it won''t be very far off that. We are slightly worse off than where I expected us to be but so are many other clubs. There is a bigger disconnect between top and bottom half this season.[/quote]I think we''re talking about two different things here Ricardo. In saying I hoped things would be a bit better this season I meant style of play not League position. Even with the new players on board I didn''t for one minute expect us to better our 11th place finish last term but I think it''s fair to hope that watching us play this term would be a little more enjoyable and not just a chore.To be fair things have improved slightly in the last six weeks or so but it''s still hard work.

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Yes, but it takes two to tango and none of our peers are keen to make it an open game. The big boys allow you to play because they know they are better than you. I fear it will always be so.

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I was of the view that goal difference has played very little part in the relegation battle. On checking the past tables, that is not the case and if the bottom 10 clubs continue to be as bunched up as they are now, it could prove significant at the end of the season:

1992/3 (42 games) Palace went down with 49 points - Oldham stayed up with 49.

1995/6 (38 games) Man city down with 38 points - Southampton with 38 survived.

1997/8: Bolton with 40 points - Everton with 40 stayed up.

More recently:

2006/7: Sheffield went down with 38 points - Wigan stayed up with  38.

2007/8: Reading went down on 36 - Fulham with 36 stayed up.

I did this a bit quickly but I think its correct.

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[quote user="M.u.s.t.a.r.dM.a.t.t.e.r.s"]

I was of the view that goal difference has played very little part in the relegation battle. On checking the past tables, that is not the case and if the bottom 10 clubs continue to be as bunched up as they are now, it could prove significant at the end of the season:

1992/3 (42 games) Palace went down with 49 points - Oldham stayed up with 49.

1995/6 (38 games) Man city down with 38 points - Southampton with 38 survived.

1997/8: Bolton with 40 points - Everton with 40 stayed up.

More recently:

2006/7: Sheffield went down with 38 points - Wigan stayed up with  38.

2007/8: Reading went down on 36 - Fulham with 36 stayed up.

I did this a bit quickly but I think its correct.

[/quote]

It just shows you that if your gd is the best of the bunch it is worth an extra point at the end of the season.   It may not happen, but the insurance of having the better goal difference is well worth it.   Really, that is all I was pointing out at the beginning - that its good to see the goal difference improving in relation to the others, psychologically and as a possible help to our survival should we need it. 

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