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Juggy

Can We Become The Next Birmingham?

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I''m serious here. What is the cap on our potential decline?

It feels like Birmingham have been a sh*te Championship club for years but that isn''t true, for several years they were boring mid-table Premier League team.

It probably isn''t too hard to envisage becoming a Birmingham in the short term, especially if Hughton continues to prove that he is a manager in the Alex McLeish mould.

Perhaps I''m dreaming, perhaps even slightly nuts, but there are loads of examples of clubs becoming perceived as safe ''mid-table'' teams and then getting relegated after spending big year on year.

Perhaps Van Wolfswinkel can become our Nikola Žigic, Sebastien Bassong can become our Curtis Davies, and John Ruddy is our Ben Foster? Can Nathan Redmond become our massively overhyped £3m English kid just like Craig Gardner?

Did Birmingham just become a crap Championship team overnight? Could we, like Birmingham, reach the murky depths of football through nothing other than spending too much money on over-rated journeymen, getting rid of all the players that got us promoted and kept in the league, and by failing to dismiss our version of Alex McLeish just like they did?

There you go, a more realistic post to counter by stupid Arsenal one.

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Relegation is inevitable for clubs like ours.

Birmingham finished 13th, 10th, 12th in this league between 2002 to 2005.

Then 18th. Yo-yo, relegated, yo-yo, 9th in 2009-10 and then relegated again.

I don''t think we are above relegation, only takes one bad season. Whether this year or in three years.

Wolves, Bolton, Blackburn.

Would be stupid to think it couldn''t happen to us.

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possibility, yes inevitable, no.

just as it is stupid not to think that we can not be relegated. It is the same to think that it is inevitable in the near future.

there is a great difference between us and the clubs you have mentioned, and that is the current (financial) stability of our club.

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"and that is the current (financial) stability of our club"

Wolves had £0 in debt 2009/10.

Blackburns debt doubled in on year after relegation.

Bolton did have huge debts, yes.

But Birmingham were also financially sound until their takeover, Carson Yeung screwed them.

Relegation is what pushes these clubs further into debt though, it isn''t the debt which causes the relegation.

Wolves were debt free when relegated and their wages to turnover ratio was only 63% - ours must be closer to that now. Being debt free does not protect against relegation, only helps events post-relegation when turnover massively declines.

Charlton was once muted as the best example around of how to manage a club financially and it didn''t last forever for them either. They had a good run though, 7 years.

Out of the entire bottom 13 clubs in the league right now only Aston Villa and Fulham have not been in the Championship in recent history.

Eventual relegation IS inevitable.

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This seems a bit of desperate attempt to restore your reputation after the Arsenal post. I think you hit the nail on the head when you suggested that you may be dreaming or even slightly nuts.

Van Wolfswinkel shall remain van Wolfswinkel, Bassong shall remain Bassong, Ruddy will still be Ruddy, Hughton shall remain Hughton and Norwich City FC will always be Norwich City FC.

The players we''ve brought aren''t overrated, they have earned their reputations for a reason. I can''t recall a time this season when they''ve all been fit along with influential players such as Pilkington, Bennett and Tetty. I don''t believe we''ve seen our strongest match day team yet.

If I was a new manager in a club I would think it''s only fair to create my own squad instead of using the previous managers. The squad got turned over when we was in league 1, Lambert brought in his own players which suited his vision and tactics over a period of three seasons. So far Hughton has had one and a half seasons and he''s brought in nothing but quality, but he''s nowhere near finished yet. I think if we give him time, accept that we''re not going to have an amazing season in the league and give him a couple more transfer windows, I think we''ll be having the season that we expected to have this season.

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Green and Yellow gets it big time, thanks! As for inevitable we will go down, I dont agree, BUT....it is certainly a possibility it could happen to us and for over 50% of the teams currently in the EPL, that''s just how it is and why it will always be tough for a club of our size. What we must do as a club is ensure that should the dreaded drop happen that preparations and plans are in place to manage the situation without going into meltdown and give ouselves the best possible chance of coming back up again...............

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[quote user="Le Juge"]".

Eventual relegation IS inevitable.[/quote]I''m afraid you are right, Juge. Relegation for a club like Norwich IS eventually inevitable. As it was for Wigan Blackburn, Bolton etc. As it will be for Swansea, Hull, Cardiff, Stoke et al.What we really must do id try to set ourselves us up as a WBA, Sunderland, W Ham type club who oscillate between the Prem and Champ, never  spending more than a couple of seasons out of the Prem at a time. Your choice of Birmingham is an interesting one, as they were once part of that group, but seem to be headed in the wrong direction due to mismanagement.A pertinent question  for us on here is , if we do go down in May, how confident are we that Norwich will be back in the Prem within two years ?

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Why don''t we aim to be more like a Fulham type club, only better. A solid premiership team *. Always in around the mid table and prepared to give any team a game. Why should we aim to be a yo-yo club? Aim low, stay low.

* Apart from this season, but they are going through a bit of a transition.

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[quote user="Herman "]Why don''t we aim to be more like a Fulham type club, only better..[/quote]Simples, Herman.Because we do not have the same kind of money that Fulham have/have had.

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Maybe our lack of ambition is holding us back as well?! The little ol'' Norwich mentality pervades through the whole club, myself included. Happy with our lot, plugging away and making up the numbers.

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[quote user="alartz"]Or better still aim to be Southampton.

Get rid of the previous manager bring in a decent one and spend money on decent players

Proper well run club[/quote]

You do realise that Southampton are owned by billionaires?

There net spend was more than ours on just three players,

With all this they are a shopping 7 points ahead of us

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Sorry to come over all anorak, but it simply is not inevitable...........as it may not happen, simple as that :-)

"the inevitable noun [singular] something that is certain to happen"

 

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[quote user="Dubai Mark"]

Sorry to come over all anorak, but it simply is not inevitable...........as it may not happen, simple as that :-)

"the inevitable noun [singular] something that is certain to happen"

 

[/quote]

I was thinking the same thing DM. It is not inevitable. If we create a kind of Everton scenario and stay strong, who knows? It may happen, it may not, but it''s not inevitable.

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why stop at birmingham? surely the aiming point of decline is Portsmouth?

while neither arsenal nor portsmouth are likely they are possible. There is no reason why we as a club can not be like fulham who have stayed in the prem for a decade, or remain in like a villa.

Any longterm plan has to be in a stages, first to remain half a dozen years liek a stoke, then a decade+ like fulham and then a fixture like villa etc

We do it our way and its no impossible dream.

Yes we do face a battle to avoid relegation over the first 6-7 years or so but while its likely it is not inevitable. And we are not on track to be relegated this season.

OTBC

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[quote user="mrs miggins"]can we become the next everton?[/quote]

I think in stature, we were becoming quite a force to be reckoned with in the late eighties/early nineties, perhaps as close as we could get to an Everton. But the bubble burst and the money ran out. The aim of the game must be to try and emulate that but regulate the finances better - something we seem to be doing at the moment, so it could be done. 

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Another thing I''ve noticed, is that the only lack of ambition comes from our fans. Our management seem to be linked with more high quality players than ever before, there''s also plans to increase our stadium capacity and to progress in the league. I don''t see where our fans gets this lack of ambition, there''s no need to think and aspire to be a yoyo club. This is simply because results haven''t gone as we expected this season. I don''t necessarily agree Hughtons tactics either, but I''m more than willing to back him and get behind the team.

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[quote user="Green and Yellow fellow"]Another thing I''ve noticed, is that the only lack of ambition comes from our fans. Our management seem to be linked with more high quality players than ever before, there''s also plans to increase our stadium capacity and to progress in the league. I don''t see where our fans gets this lack of ambition, there''s no need to think and aspire to be a yoyo club. This is simply because results haven''t gone as we expected this season. I don''t necessarily agree Hughtons tactics either, but I''m more than willing to back him and get behind the team.[/quote]That surely, is precisely the point though, GYF ? There are (and always have been) some fans who are overly ambitious. Others who are perhaps a little more circumspect and realistic (often with the benefit of past experiences).But, I''d take issue with your claim of huge promises of ambition from within the club. I''ve never heard anything from anybody that ties in with what you say. No real clear plan to increase CR''s capacity. No intention to chuck insanely huge wadges of money at the squad. As recently as two months ago DMcN was talking about aspirations to "mid table mediocrity". Personally I''ve no problem with that . If you are seriously suggesting that we should move up several gears and attempt to become more than a yo-yo club, then you''d better get used to the idea that it will take HUGE sums of money to do that. Money that up till now has shown no sign of being forthcoming. And also get used to the idea that it could all go seriously t!ts up as it did at Portsmouth, Coventry, Leeds and even Blackburn.

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[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="Green and Yellow fellow"]Another thing I''ve noticed, is that the only lack of ambition comes from our fans. Our management seem to be linked with more high quality players than ever before, there''s also plans to increase our stadium capacity and to progress in the league. I don''t see where our fans gets this lack of ambition, there''s no need to think and aspire to be a yoyo club. This is simply because results haven''t gone as we expected this season. I don''t necessarily agree Hughtons tactics either, but I''m more than willing to back him and get behind the team.[/quote]That surely, is precisely the point though, GYF ? There are (and always have been) some fans who are overly ambitious. Others who are perhaps a little more circumspect and realistic (often with the benefit of past experiences).But, I''d take issue with your claim of huge promises of ambition from within the club. I''ve never heard anything from anybody that ties in with what you say. No real clear plan to increase CR''s capacity. No intention to chuck insanely huge wadges of money at the squad. As recently as two months ago DMcN was talking about aspirations to "mid table mediocrity". Personally I''ve no problem with that . If you are seriously suggesting that we should move up several gears and attempt to become more than a yo-yo club, then you''d better get used to the idea that it will take HUGE sums of money to do that. Money that up till now has shown no sign of being forthcoming. And also get used to the idea that it could all go seriously t!ts up as it did at Portsmouth, Coventry, Leeds and even Blackburn.[/quote]Correct, Reggie. As I posted on the Andrea Ranocchia thread, the reality, as opposed to any spin or perception, is that the new regime has mixed prudence and ambition in the same ratio as the much-maligned old regime. I see no difference at all.

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That''s not what I''m saying Reggie, our goal was to improve on last years position and aim to be a top ten side. We''ve also brought in quality players such as RVW, Fer and Hooper. We broke our transfer record last season, and I wouldn''t be surprised if we do it next. I don''t expect us to because I''ve got used to the club bringing in top players from the lower leagues, but it''s evident that the club has moved on from that. If that isn''t ambition what is? Plans to increase stadium capacity have also been suggested by McNally in recent times, even though he has admitted it will still take a number of years to gain the funds for that.

I''m not suggesting we should move up several gears, I''m suggesting that we should believe in ourselves a bit more. The premier league is getting more money pumped into it than ever before and our club is in a financial position to envy. I don''t expect us to be an Everton anytime soon, but more like a Southampton or a Swansea.

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Ambition doesnt mean spending silly, it means taking calculated risks.

For us it could mean buying young promising players or decent already peaked players. But also trying to get high profile targets instead of just trying to get someone who would be certainly happy to come here.

We need to expand our stadium at some point, but in my opinion only planning it at this moment is better as we are not yet established premside. Also before getting huge stadion etc we should still try to improve our training facilities and youth setup. Sport science is something where we probably are light year away from top clubs and it gives great advantage in long run.

Also we need to get some prestige before we can rise up. It can come from successful signings or a lucky cup run, but at the moment we are very badly known outside of England and that will

We can be more than yoyo club and archieve same status than Everton for example thought our relatively small fanbase is a bit problem.

Anyway there is no real reason why we should become yoyo club and not become top half club.

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If we replace inevitable with in all likehood can we move on?

I think that our history suggests that we will oscillate between the top two divisions. Failure is dropping to the third tier., success is promotion to the top league and amibition is to further develop into an established top half team.

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[quote user="Lavanche"]l

We can be more than yoyo club and archieve same status than Everton for example thought our relatively small fanbase is a bit problem.

Anyway there is no real reason why we should become yoyo club and not become top half club.[/quote]I really do wonder sometimes what planet some posters on here live on. Achieve the same status as Everton ? get real. I think I''m right in saying that after Arsenal, Everton have been in the top flight longer than any other club. They get gates of 40,000+. They are based in England''s 5th biggest city. They are well known all over the world. They have won the title twice in living memory. OK they are behind the ManU''s Arsenals of this world, but for someone to say that we could easily be their equal  beggars belief.People mention Southampton and Swansea as teams to ape. Well maybe, but let''s not go running away with the idea that they are "established Prem teams". Saints have been in the 3rd tier more recently than us. Swansea are as likely to get cottered up in a relegation scrap as us over the next few months. Both, classic yo-yo club material too.

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The reason why historically we have oscillated between the top 2 divisions is finances being primarily determined by gate receipts. However, gate receipts are no longer the biggest source of income Norwich, tv revenue is. If this money is used wisely we should be able to build the club and maintain our status in the top 10 - 15 clubs.

The determining factor medium term sustained success going forward will be a management structure with vision combined with our ability to gain additional revenue. The 2 sources here are European TV money (Champions League) or external investment.

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