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lincoln canary (& Golden Coppel)

Hughton out - yes or no

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]We''re a bigger and more attractive club than Swansea.[/quote]Shame the football we''re playing isn''t...

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]
I have been an Outer for a few months now, with the caveat that there had to be someone availabe who looked like a marked improvement. But that was then. Time has run on, so any change now would run the risk of being too late. Unless the board has lined someone up who could plunge knowledgeably straight into the transfer market. And even then they would not have that many games in which to work some improvement.I would, though, caution against arguing that a change is bound NOT to work, because of some iron law to do with regresssing to the mean. That clubs that keep the manager do as well as those that don''t. I have ploughed the much-quoted Dutch academic survey on which this popular thesis seems mainly to rest. In short, it is probably a handy guide to what might happen to clubs that sack the manager after a four-game "dip" in performance compared with their overall performance that season.And if that was us with Hughton then it might be relevant. But that is not us with Hughton, even though, as it happens, we haven''t had a league win in the last six. The problem is that the longer-term key indicators are all worse than last season, and currently getting worse game by game. It does not look as if we are simply in some short-term Dutch-style blip.
[/quote]It''s not just the Dutch report Purple. Studies have been done in the German, Spanish, Italian, Portugese and Turkish Leagues and all show no observable effect.The Italian study says this;-using data from the Colombian first-division soccer league between

2003 and 2010 we do not detect any improvement in team performance

following the hiring of a new coach. We find that a new coach does not

statistically change the number of points, the score difference, or the

numbers of goals scored and allowed. Our results call into question the

commonsensical view that managerial turnover is efficient.
The Portugese this;-Sandra Maximiano from Purdue University analysed data from the Portuguese League in a March 2012 study, and found ‘firing

the coach does not improve teams’ performance. In fact, it seems that

teams that decided not to fire the coach, even when they also experienced

a spell of underperforming results, recover better than the ones that

replaced the coach
.’ The German this;-Sören Salomo and Kai Teichmann of theUniversity of Kiel concluded, ‘although

the dismissal of the manager is supposed to improve team performance

this effect does not seem to be supported by the data on the German

premier soccer league,’
in their 2000 paper, ‘The Relationship of Performance and Managerial Succession in the German Premier Soccer League’, and Anne-Line Balduck and Marc Buelens of the University of Genk agreed their analysis

‘reveals no evidence to attribute the performance recovery following a

change of coach to his/her successor and rejects the hypothesis of the

effectiveness of coach turnover,It''s myth with no foundation in fact.
[/quote]Except that the only survey I have read, which is the Dutch one, is irrelevant to Norwich City''s case in the here and now. It is perfectly possible those other surveys, if read as opposed to being very briefly summarised, would prove equally irrelevant. Certainly the quote from the Portuguese study, talking about a short spell of bad results, strongly suggests it is also looking at similarly short-term data. Indeed it is highly likely that such surveys CAN only look at short-term data, because of the contextual variables involved over a longer period. Indeed, the Dutch authors effectively admit this is why they can only go on four-game dips.Added to which is the insuperable problem that the logical conclusion of such surveys has to be that all managers are the same, with none more talented than any other. And that simply is not true. Do you believe that? That Bryan Gunn was as talented as Paul Lambert?A contradiction which the authors of The Numbers Game fail to discern. Because in one breath they accept the Dutch thesis - "sacking managers...is an expensive illusion." - and in the next rubbish the notion by admitting that over a season a more talented manager can greatly influence how a team performs.[/quote]Which begs the question, where is the talented manager who is waiting in the wings for us?No I don''t believe Gunn was more talented than Lambert. Raising an ex player to manager is always more of an emotional move than one based on sound common sense and bound to end in tears.I concede that Sunderland had no choice in their change as Di Canio had obviously lost the dressing room but Palace, Fulham, Cardiff, WBA are all unlikely to find any mileage in their actions.

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"We''re a bigger and more attractive club than Swansea. I can''t believe anybody who would think differently."

They won the League Cup, are playing in Europe this year and they have an internationally known manager. They have recently sold one of their best players to Liverpool for £15m.

Unfortunately we''re smaller in the eyes of many and especially those abroad.

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[quote user="kirku"]Re:These studies.

The leagues studied follow the European model where a DOF conducts transfer dealings while a coach conducts training and sets up the team etc. This allows greater continuity when coaches are changed.

A manager in England, generally, does the job of both.

Thus, drawing parallels between the two is problematic. Managers in England have more control (ask Mourinho) and therefore have more influence over results.[/quote]So point me to the studies in English football that show changing a manager improves results.You are clutching at straws.

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"No I don''t believe Gunn was more talented than Lambert....but Palace... are unlikely to find any mileage in their actions."

Gunn is less talented than Lambert yet Pulis and Holloway are equals?

(Also yet to see anything regarding the fallacy of applying European studies to the British game)

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[quote user="ricardo"]This is the Italian studyhttp://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11030/[/quote]I''m only about half way through this but so far it does seem more convincing than both the dutch and english league studies, as it neither pre-filters the data nor only looks at limited windows, and makes an effort to rule out variation in opposition etc.However its also a completely different type of study to the previous ones, it makes no attempt to form a control group of ''non sackings'' to compare against. It also says things like this:[quote]
The effect of Coach Change is positive and strongly statistically significant in each specification. However, the magnitude is small: according to our estimates, playing with a new coach yields a team 2-3 points more every 10 matches[/quote][quote]We find that Coach Change has a significant and positive effect on Goals Scored and a negative effect on Goals Conceded, implying that the new coach is able to improve both the offensive skills and the defensive skills of the team.[/quote]

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"You are clutching at straws."

Hardly.

I don''t need to find studies to prove that some managers are more talented than others- you''ve admitted it yourself in a recent post comparing Gunn and Lambert.

Using reports based on the European coach + DOF model and applying them to the British system is fallacious. End of.

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So up until today we were better than Everton coz the last time they beat us was ages ago? Swansea haven''t beaten us in 4 yrs to everton 8/9.

Daft thing to say nige.

Swansea have won a cup, play good football and get results, have a bright manager who gets linked with the biggest job in the world, they play in Europe and have a footballing ethos that is carried over from appt to appt.

I think there is a lot of jealousy towards Swansea, whereas I respect them for what they have achieved and how they do it.

As for van Basten. Why not? Manager at heerenveen. Are we not a better club? He could use us as a stepping stone.

Bergkamp is working with Ajax and admits he wants too come to England. What a good opp for him to get his foot in the door with us.

So we can go for unrealistic players like Quag/alderweireld and ranocchia but can''t for managers.

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"playing with a new coach yields a team 2-3 points more every 10 matches"

That''s quite interesting. Across a full season the benefit would be between 7.6-11.4 points. That''s a big difference.

With 17 games left that would mean roughly a 3-5 point benefit from the mean. Not bad at all.

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My point about them beating us was in response to the incessant non stop whining that came from that poster. It''s never ending from a few of you. All the debates on here end up the same way. You personally change your criticisms and sticks you use to beat Hughton almost weekly buddy. I personally get fed up with it like I''m sure you get fed up with me finding positives.

 

Now whilst I''ve got your attention on the thread yesterday where you put up "your team" you had Russell martin at right back. I queried it but you chose to ignore me. Why Martin buddy? Cautious Chris didn''t...

 

 

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NO

Everton away was never going to be easy to get a point - look at the stats.

We are getting points at those around us, although need to ensure we don''t have another Fulham result, but Hull win would put us level on points with the them who are in 10th place. It''s going to be very tight bottom half - that''s the reality this year, and Swansea are in that mix who everything thinks are wonderful but are struggling for results.

City have had quite a few changes to the team - it does take time to get it to gel - this year with the way the league is going 40 points (or whatever the figure will be) will do me given where all the bottom half are at the moment.

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[quote user="kirku"]"You are clutching at straws."

Hardly.

I don''t need to find studies to prove that some managers are more talented than others- you''ve admitted it yourself in a recent post comparing Gunn and Lambert.

Using reports based on the European coach + DOF model and applying them to the British system is fallacious. End of.[/quote]Football is the same the world over. The Premier League is no special case, all teams have a level and revert to that level over time unless they make a step change in finance.This has nothing to do with Lambert and Gunn and you know it. There is no manager out there who will come in and raise us to a 1.3 ppg team.Still waiting for you to point me to anything that proves changing a manager will lead to better results.There isn''t one for a reason, it''s a myth.

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Anyone citing Swansea as a team in a superior position to us needs to look at the table, they are 1 point ahead of us and the only team below us in the form table.

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[quote user="kirku"]Ricardo:

I found this quote, from your article, very apt in regards to your ''right/wrong'' stance.

"Testing empirically in a rigorous way these countervailing forces and understanding

whether firing the coach helps to improve team outcomes is difficult because it is unknown

what would have happened if the old coach had led the team.
"[/quote]Obviously it can only be tested in comparison with those in a similar predicament who don''t change.Assuming travel between different Universes is impossible.

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Sorry nige didn''t see your post.

I think cafu is the all round better player. He''s also is good form. Man united he was superb.

I''d sell Whittaker in the summer and get someone better in. Maybe naughton.

But fact is, hughton has selected Martin more than Whittaker when both fit. Thank you please. I''m now off tada

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[quote user="can u sit down please"]Sorry nige didn''t see your post.

I think cafu is the all round better player. He''s also is good form. Man united he was superb.

I''d sell Whittaker in the summer and get someone better in. Maybe naughton.

But fact is, hughton has selected Martin more than Whittaker when both fit. Thank you please. I''m now off tada[/quote]

 

That''s what I meant.

 

See ya later[;)]

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]My point about them beating us was in response to the incessant non stop whining that came from that poster.[/quote]Except that it''s a completely irrelevant point Nigel that has ZERO bearing on the type of football we play and how enjoyable it is to watch for the majority of fans - Norwich or Neutral.Assume for a minute that both us and Swansea finished safe and on exactly the same amount of points, which style of football would you rather have watched in the process, their more free-flowing, passing attacking game, or our more defensive focused, counter-attack style of play that often invites opponents to attack us?PS, I haven''t changed any ''sticks'' to beat Hughton with, I''ve had the same complaint about his style of play throughout his tenure, but at least I''m willing to admit that I think he made some excellent signings in the summer and that his professionalism and manner is a credit to the club - it''s just the bloody football is so bad to watch and the results aren''t great either that''s the key issue.If we put in the sort of performances that we showed against the likes of WBA and Man City towards the end of last season then I think you''d find that virtually no-one would be giving Hughton this level of hassle, but he simply isn''t, and there''s only so long that fans will put up with dire football in the name of premier league safety - ask Stoke fans if you don''t agree...

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"Football is the same the world over. The Premier League is no special case, all teams have a level and revert to that level over time unless they make a step change in finance."

1) No it isn''t. A coach has less of an impact on the team as he has less responsibilities than a manager.

2) Norwich have made a steep change in finance. Brink of administration to the most lucrative TV deal in PL history.

"This has nothing to do with Lambert and Gunn and you know it. There is no manager out there who will come in and raise us to a 1.3 ppg team."

Of course it does. You are arguing that changing manager has NO effect on the team. This is simply untrue.

Do you think Norwich would be in the PL right now if Gunn were still in charge? Didn''t think so.

"Still waiting for you to point me to anything that proves changing a manager will lead to better results.There isn''t one for a reason, it''s a myth."

Ferguson.

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[quote user="ricardo"]Football is the same the world over. The Premier League is no special case, all teams have a level and revert to that level over time unless they make a step change in finance.This has nothing to do with Lambert and Gunn and you know it. There is no manager out there who will come in and raise us to a 1.3 ppg team.Still waiting for you to point me to anything that proves changing a manager will lead to better results.There isn''t one for a reason, it''s a myth.[/quote]See this is where you are overreaching. You are trying to apply results of a specific methodologies to all managerial changes. The Dutch and English studies are flawed because they are only measuring the honeymoon period, and pre-filtering out sackings that don''t meet their criteria, which means you are no longer looking at "result of changing a manager", you are looking at "short term result of changing a manager in specific circumstances", which is not the same thing at all, if you stated it like that, I (and I suspect Purple Canary too) wouldn''t be disagreeing.The Italian study is better in this regard, but is still only looking a managerial changes within a season, and how they affect results within that season, they specifically rule out using closed season changes as they can''t control for differences in squad and opponents.1.3 ppg is only 49 points over a season, do you genuinely think that there isn''t a manager in the world that could acheive that here? Steve Clarke managed that with WBA.You could easily make the argument that given that all the research, regardless of methods seems to agree that a 4-8 game honeymoon period is on average, a real phenomenon, that sacking a manager towards the end of a season to push you over the line would be a good tactic, even though thats completely mental from a long term planning view.

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No !    We are only three points off our target 10th place, we are very nearly on track you can''t sack him for doing as asked.Edit button please !

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[quote user="Indy_Bones"][quote user="nutty nigel"]My point about them beating us was in response to the incessant non stop whining that came from that poster.[/quote]Except that it''s a completely irrelevant point Nigel that has ZERO bearing on the type of football we play and how enjoyable it is to watch for the majority of fans - Norwich or Neutral.Assume for a minute that both us and Swansea finished safe and on exactly the same amount of points, which style of football would you rather have watched in the process, their more free-flowing, passing attacking game, or our more defensive focused, counter-attack style of play that often invites opponents to attack us?PS, I haven''t changed any ''sticks'' to beat Hughton with, I''ve had the same complaint about his style of play throughout his tenure, but at least I''m willing to admit that I think he made some excellent signings in the summer and that his professionalism and manner is a credit to the club - it''s just the bloody football is so bad to watch and the results aren''t great either that''s the key issue.If we put in the sort of performances that we showed against the likes of WBA and Man City towards the end of last season then I think you''d find that virtually no-one would be giving Hughton this level of hassle, but he simply isn''t, and there''s only so long that fans will put up with dire football in the name of premier league safety - ask Stoke fans if you don''t agree...[/quote]

 

Blimey! A reasonable reply. The first one ever I reckon. Thank you[Y]

 

I was referring to CUSDP changing the sticks. He knew what I meant. How he first berated Hughton for playing Martin in front of Whittaker but then decides Martin is the better player when Hoots doesn''t pick him. This type of thing happens now because so many folks automatically criticise every Hughton decision as a matter of course.

 

I absolutely guarantee you that if Stoke drop into the bottom three their fans will view Pulis with affection. If they are then relegated and Palace stay up there will be absolutely hell to pay. Principles are ok in mid-table but when the chips are down principles don''t get you points.

 

If we put in performances like we did at the end of last season and lost Hughton would be getting this hassle. If we were dire and won he wouldn''t until we were safe.

 

I bet there''s plenty of sets of fans who''d take points over anything at the moment. There''s 6 points covering 11 teams!

 

 

 

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I''ve never berated hughton for playing Martin over Whittaker. I am a huge Martin fan.

Re read the original thread and it will say hughton wouldn''t play Whittaker with Olsson and he had chosen Martin over Whittaker more.

It wasn''t me changing the sticks.

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Yes,yes and yes, watched Hughtons tactically inept side today, once again no plan B and good players who seem bereft of confidence and leadership, enough is enough, goooooooooooooooooooo........

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="kirku"]"You are clutching at straws."

Hardly.

I don''t need to find studies to prove that some managers are more talented than others- you''ve admitted it yourself in a recent post comparing Gunn and Lambert.

Using reports based on the European coach + DOF model and applying them to the British system is fallacious. End of.[/quote]Football is the same the world over. The Premier League is no special case, all teams have a level and revert to that level over time unless they make a step change in finance.This has nothing to do with Lambert and Gunn and you know it. There is no manager out there who will come in and raise us to a 1.3 ppg team.Still waiting for you to point me to anything that proves changing a manager will lead to better results.There isn''t one for a reason, it''s a myth.[/quote]An admirable decision of ricardo''s to watch The Bridge, but I can tell ricardo now that dear old Saga would spot in a Swedish instant this attempt at a bit of intellectual sleight of hand. No one is denying that over time, over a course of some seasons, finance is the major determinant in where a team finishes. But Saga would, in that annoying way of hers, point out that we are not talking about seasons but one season.And even those who swear by finance admit that over one season, and even within a season, it is possible for the better managers to make a significant difference. And, as ricardo has agreed, there are better and worse managers.

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King''s Man"

Everton away was never going to be easy to get a point - look at the stats.

We are getting points at those around us, although need to ensure we don''t have another Fulham result, but Hull win would put us level on points with the them who are in 10th place. It''s going to be very tight bottom half - that''s the reality this year, and Swansea are in that mix who everything thinks are wonderful but are struggling for results.

City have had quite a few changes to the team - it does take time to get it to gel - this year with the way the league is going 40 points (or whatever the figure will be) will do me given where all the bottom half are at the moment.

Quite right?

The Fink Tank in today''s Times has home win 69%, draw 20% and away win 11%. Palace had better % odds at Spurs than we did at Everton.

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