Hughton out - yes or no

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="Houston Canary"]There''s nerve and there''s stupidity. I''m not jumping out of the trench into a sea of machine gun fire to show my nerve. I''m working out a new strategy. But then I''m not stupid.[/quote]Hubba hubba you Marines[Y]

[A Gay Schoolboy 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]It''s almost certain that you haven''t[/quote]lol you''re cracking up again. Have you read them or not?I''ve had numerous tedious and repetitive discussions with T on this forum about the merits of both studies that get referenced, quoting directly from the authors about their methods and the limitations of their results.I think you''ve just read that BBC article and not bothered to actually check the original papers.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="kirku"]"Five teams have swapped so far, if us and WHam follow suit it will be seven. They can''t all be right."

Yes they can. Or they can all be wrong. Or any mix of the two.

Does that mean that if Palace and Sunderland get relegated then they were ''wrong''?[/quote]You tell me, you are the one saying they did the right thing.Those who escape will think they''ve been proved right.Those who don''twon''t.

[Surfer 1,547]

I will grant that the current management team is very unfortunate to be missing the services of four first-choice midfield players - Pilkington, Tettey, Howson and Bennett. Some of the positional choices being made puzzle me - Whittacker and Snodgrass v''s Martin and Redmond for example, but unless we get better players on the pitch we are going to continue to struggle. I''m sure we''d all feel a lot better about the style of our football and results if we were able to play this team :

Ruddy

Martin R.Bennett Bassong Olssen

Tettey Fer

E.Bennett Howson Pilkington

RvW

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="Dandy Mountfarto"][quote user="ricardo"]It''s almost certain that you haven''t[/quote]lol you''re cracking up again. Have you read them or not?I''ve had numerous tedious and repetitive discussions with T on this forum about the merits of both studies that get referenced, quoting directly from the authors about their methods and the limitations of their results.I think you''ve just read that BBC article and not bothered to actually check the original papers.[/quote]I wouldn''t have mentioned them if I hadn''t. I actually have the original papers and have never read them on the BBC.

[A Gay Schoolboy 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]I wouldn''t have mentioned them if I hadn''t. I actually have the original papers and have never read them on the BBC.[/quote]Do you have the full or the abridged version of the one that looks into the Premier League rather than the Dutch league?

[kirku 1,332]

"You tell me, you are the one saying they did the right thing."

Pulis has a far better pedigree than Holloway. He''s a much more proven Premiership manager. It was the right choice to appoint him and sack Holloway.

Di Canio was a timebomb, an egotistical nutcase. He implemented an incredibly strict regime which alienated and demoralised swathes of his squad. Since Poyet''s appointment Sunderland''s performances have been improving week on week. It was the right choice to appoint him and sack Di Canio.

You seem to hinge everything on relegation and a perceived right or wrong. It isn''t so simple. They could be ''right'' and still get relegated or be ''wrong'' and stay up. Both of those teams managed to ''upgrade'' their manager. It might not save them this season but it should, in time, prove to be the right choice.

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

9 wins in the last 42 league games!

Scored more than a single goal in 13 out of 59 league games!

EIGHT points off where we were at this stage of the season in 2012 (DESPITE the millions spent)!

Failure to win 80% of all games against promoted sides!

Defeat to Luton Town (Conference) AT HOME in the FA Cup last season!

Hughton should be dismissed in my humble opinion ... and should have gone after Villa beat us at Carrow Road in September.

Certainly no longer greater than the sum of our parts (it has been a heart breaking tragedy to lose that).

Time to go.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="Dandy Mountfarto"][quote user="ricardo"]I wouldn''t have mentioned them if I hadn''t. I actually have the original papers and have never read them on the BBC.[/quote]Do you have the full or the abridged version of the one that looks into the Premier League rather than the Dutch league?[/quote]So what points would you like to discuss from it that support your viewpoint?

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

I have been an Outer for a few months now, with the caveat that there had to be someone availabe who looked like a marked improvement. But that was then. Time has run on, so any change now would run the risk of being too late. Unless the board has lined someone up who could plunge knowledgeably straight into the transfer market. And even then they would not have that many games in which to work some improvement.I would, though, caution against arguing that a change is bound NOT to work, because of some iron law to do with regresssing to the mean. That clubs that keep the manager do as well as those that don''t. I have ploughed the much-quoted Dutch academic survey on which this popular thesis seems mainly to rest. In short, it is probably a handy guide to what might happen to clubs that sack the manager after a four-game "dip" in performance compared with their overall performance that season.And if that was us with Hughton then it might be relevant. But that is not us with Hughton, even though, as it happens, we haven''t had a league win in the last six. The problem is that the longer-term key indicators are all worse than last season, and currently getting worse game by game. It does not look as if we are simply in some short-term Dutch-style blip.

[Evesham Canary 0]

Fallen off the fence now. Time to goI am afraid. We jyst don''t look capable of getting the 18-20 points we need. A fresh manager & outlook is required.

[Evesham Canary 0]

Fallen off the fence now. Time to goI am afraid. We jyst don''t look capable of getting the 18-20 points we need. A fresh manager & outlook is required.

[BOO 0]

No, not out. We have stuck with him and now we have to see it through. I wanted him gone last season, still not a fan but we have no choice. I think he is getting better with his team selection, the players are playing for him and we will do enough to stay up I believe. Re-asses at the end of the season!

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

I have been an Outer for a few months now, with the caveat that there had to be someone availabe who looked like a marked improvement. But that was then. Time has run on, so any change now would run the risk of being too late. Unless the board has lined someone up who could plunge knowledgeably straight into the transfer market. And even then they would not have that many games in which to work some improvement.I would, though, caution against arguing that a change is bound NOT to work, because of some iron law to do with regresssing to the mean. That clubs that keep the manager do as well as those that don''t. I have ploughed the much-quoted Dutch academic survey on which this popular thesis seems mainly to rest. In short, it is probably a handy guide to what might happen to clubs that sack the manager after a four-game "dip" in performance compared with their overall performance that season.And if that was us with Hughton then it might be relevant. But that is not us with Hughton, even though, as it happens, we haven''t had a league win in the last six. The problem is that the longer-term key indicators are all worse than last season, and currently getting worse game by game. It does not look as if we are simply in some short-term Dutch-style blip.

[/quote]It''s not just the Dutch report Purple. Studies have been done in the German, Spanish, Italian, Portugese and Turkish Leagues and all show no observable effect.The Italian study says this;-using data from the Colombian first-division soccer league between

2003 and 2010 we do not detect any improvement in team performance

following the hiring of a new coach. We find that a new coach does not

statistically change the number of points, the score difference, or the

numbers of goals scored and allowed. Our results call into question the

commonsensical view that managerial turnover is efficient.The Portugese this;-Sandra Maximiano from Purdue University analysed data from the Portuguese League in a March 2012 study, and found ‘firing

the coach does not improve teams’ performance. In fact, it seems that

teams that decided not to fire the coach, even when they also experienced

a spell of underperforming results, recover better than the ones that

replaced the coach.’ The German this;-Sören Salomo and Kai Teichmann of theUniversity of Kiel concluded, ‘although

the dismissal of the manager is supposed to improve team performance

this effect does not seem to be supported by the data on the German

premier soccer league,’ in their 2000 paper, ‘The Relationship of Performance and Managerial Succession in the German Premier Soccer League’, and Anne-Line Balduck and Marc Buelens of the University of Genk agreed their analysis

‘reveals no evidence to attribute the performance recovery following a

change of coach to his/her successor and rejects the hypothesis of the

effectiveness of coach turnover,It''s myth with no foundation in fact.

[Luv The Board. 0]

Out. It''s time we were phelann "glad all over " !

[A Gay Schoolboy 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]So what points would you like to discuss from it that support your viewpoint?[/quote]I''d like to know whether you have the full or abridged version first, no point if we don''t have the same version.

[Hard Cell 0]

Yes out this week and take those other two clowns with him.  Let the players express themselves.

[A Gay Schoolboy 0]

Interesting data from the other leagues, can I have a link to those studies? I want to see if they have the same methology issues as the dutch league one has.

[can u sit down please 0]

REALISTIC candidates:

Tuchel girard Malky hoddle Howe Clark avb jol di matteo bergkamp vBasten phelan Zola bielsa k''mann phelan Lennon guidolin montella rangnick.

Will they do a better job? Nobody can guarantee that, but sometimes you have to take that chance and not play it safe, like we are on the pitch.

If Swansea can attract Laudrup we can attract those listed. This is an attractive job for many. Remember McNally saying when we appt hughton we had apps from Germany and Italy!

[kirku 1,332]

Re:These studies.

The leagues studied follow the European model where a DOF conducts transfer dealings while a coach conducts training and sets up the team etc. This allows greater continuity when coaches are changed.

A manager in England, generally, does the job of both.

Thus, drawing parallels between the two is problematic. Managers in England have more control (ask Mourinho) and therefore have more influence over results.

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

[quote user="can u sit down please"]REALISTIC candidates:

Tuchel girard Malky hoddle Howe Clark avb jol di matteo bergkamp vBasten phelan Zola bielsa k''mann phelan Lennon guidolin montella rangnick.

Will they do a better job? Nobody can guarantee that, but sometimes you have to take that chance and not play it safe, like we are on the pitch.

If Swansea can attract Laudrup we can attract those listed. This is an attractive job for many. Remember McNally saying when we appt hughton we had apps from Germany and Italy![/quote]

There is no way we could attract most of those names! Klinsman is taking USA into the World Cup!!! Van Basten / Bergkamp .... seriously?!

Swansea are a far more attractive club than we are as hard as that is to swallow.

[A Gay Schoolboy 0]

[quote user="can u sit down please"]REALISTIC candidates:

Tuchel girard Malky hoddle Howe Clark avb jol di matteo bergkamp vBasten phelan Zola bielsa k''mann phelan Lennon guidolin montella rangnick.

Will they do a better job? Nobody can guarantee that, but sometimes you have to take that chance and not play it safe, like we are on the pitch.

If Swansea can attract Laudrup we can attract those listed. This is an attractive job for many. Remember McNally saying when we appt hughton we had apps from Germany and Italy![/quote]The question is less ''can we attract them?'' and more ''can we attract them midseason to a relegation battle?''. I think changing manager in summer would lead to us being able to get the type of candidates you mention, now? Doubtful.

[kirku 1,332]

"Tuchel girard Malky hoddle Howe Clark avb jol di matteo bergkamp vBasten phelan Zola bielsa k''mann phelan Lennon guidolin montella rangnick"

Most of those suggestions are either unrealistic or no better than Hughton.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

No.

We have good players coming back from injury and our new players are now bedding in. We will survive this season.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

I have been an Outer for a few months now, with the caveat that there had to be someone availabe who looked like a marked improvement. But that was then. Time has run on, so any change now would run the risk of being too late. Unless the board has lined someone up who could plunge knowledgeably straight into the transfer market. And even then they would not have that many games in which to work some improvement.I would, though, caution against arguing that a change is bound NOT to work, because of some iron law to do with regresssing to the mean. That clubs that keep the manager do as well as those that don''t. I have ploughed the much-quoted Dutch academic survey on which this popular thesis seems mainly to rest. In short, it is probably a handy guide to what might happen to clubs that sack the manager after a four-game "dip" in performance compared with their overall performance that season.And if that was us with Hughton then it might be relevant. But that is not us with Hughton, even though, as it happens, we haven''t had a league win in the last six. The problem is that the longer-term key indicators are all worse than last season, and currently getting worse game by game. It does not look as if we are simply in some short-term Dutch-style blip.

[/quote]It''s not just the Dutch report Purple. Studies have been done in the German, Spanish, Italian, Portugese and Turkish Leagues and all show no observable effect.The Italian study says this;-using data from the Colombian first-division soccer league between

2003 and 2010 we do not detect any improvement in team performance

following the hiring of a new coach. We find that a new coach does not

statistically change the number of points, the score difference, or the

numbers of goals scored and allowed. Our results call into question the

commonsensical view that managerial turnover is efficient.The Portugese this;-Sandra Maximiano from Purdue University analysed data from the Portuguese League in a March 2012 study, and found ‘firing

the coach does not improve teams’ performance. In fact, it seems that

teams that decided not to fire the coach, even when they also experienced

a spell of underperforming results, recover better than the ones that

replaced the coach.’ The German this;-Sören Salomo and Kai Teichmann of theUniversity of Kiel concluded, ‘although

the dismissal of the manager is supposed to improve team performance

this effect does not seem to be supported by the data on the German

premier soccer league,’ in their 2000 paper, ‘The Relationship of Performance and Managerial Succession in the German Premier Soccer League’, and Anne-Line Balduck and Marc Buelens of the University of Genk agreed their analysis

‘reveals no evidence to attribute the performance recovery following a

change of coach to his/her successor and rejects the hypothesis of the

effectiveness of coach turnover,It''s myth with no foundation in fact.[/quote]Except that the only survey I have read, which is the Dutch one, is irrelevant to Norwich City''s case in the here and now. It is perfectly possible those other surveys, if read as opposed to being very briefly summarised, would prove equally irrelevant. Certainly the quote from the Portuguese study, talking about a short spell of bad results, strongly suggests it is also looking at similarly short-term data. Indeed it is highly likely that such surveys CAN only look at short-term data, because of the contextual variables involved over a longer period. Indeed, the Dutch authors effectively admit this is why they can only go on four-game dips.Added to which is the insuperable problem that the logical conclusion of such surveys has to be that all managers are the same, with none more talented than any other. And that simply is not true. Do you believe that? That Bryan Gunn was as talented as Paul Lambert?A contradiction which the authors of The Numbers Game fail to discern. Because in one breath they accept the Dutch thesis - "sacking managers...is an expensive illusion." - and in the next rubbish the notion by admitting that over a season a more talented manager can greatly influence how a team performs.

[ricardo 7,345]

[quote user="Dandy Mountfarto"]Interesting data from the other leagues, can I have a link to those studies? I want to see if they have the same methology issues as the dutch league one has.[/quote]This is the Italian studyhttp://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11030/

[can u sit down please 0]

Tell me, why are they unrealistic? Are we suffering from "small Norwich syndrome" in thinking we can''t attract anyone?

Like is said, if Swansea can attract Laudrup, what''s stopping us?

I''d argue that most on that list are better than Hughtin and his below 30% win ratio.

We''ve already missed out on poyet,sherwood and solskjaer we''ll prob miss out in a few of those too.

[TIL 1010 4,722]

[quote user="Cantiaci Canary"] Swansea are a far more attractive club than we are as hard as that is to swallow.[/quote]

Seriously ? Why ? [*-)]

[can u sit down please 0]

Far more attractive than us.

[kirku 1,332]

Ricardo:

I found this quote, from your article, very apt in regards to your ''right/wrong'' stance.

"Testing empirically in a rigorous way these countervailing forces and understanding

whether firing the coach helps to improve team outcomes is difficult because it is unknown

what would have happened if the old coach had led the team."