11 clubs, 17 games, 6 points

[Making Plans 936]

And we sit right in the middle - 5 relegation contenders above us and 5 relegation contenders below us.It''s in our hands, we can move up or go down.What we need -The last 4 gamesLets get them out of the way & right them off. All the other 10 teams involved in the relegation battle have got to play at least 3 of them again & the way things are going, it''s unlikely, although not impossible, that no team from the bottom will beat those any 4 teams.6 pointer home games.The bottom line is that we need to beat Hull, Stoke, WBA and Sunderland - they are 4 must win games.Unfortunately we''ve already played the other relegation rivals at Carrow Road and we didn''t beat enough of them.Other home gamesThe remainder of our home games are all against teams in the top 9. A point against Newcastle wouldn''t be a disaster and if we could pick up another draw with Spurs that would be about the best we could hope for. Nothing from Man C.6 pointer away gamesThese are must not lose games and we have Cardiff, Fulham, West Ham, Swansea & Villa to play. Four draws would be ok.It would be nice to pick up a win somewhere, although on current form I can''t see that happening. That is unless we get the Fulham monkey off our back by beating them in the Cup tonight.Other away gamesIt wouldn''t be impossible to get a draw at Southampton who are not what they were earlier in the season but that would be a bonus.So, in summary - 4 home wins & 2 home draws gives us 14 points.4 away draws gets us another 4 pointsNothing from our home games with Man C or Southampton and one defeat on the road in a 6 pointer game.Nothing from the last 4 games with Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool or Chelsea.I make that 14 points for a total of 35 and with so many teams involved this season, that might just be enough.

[Making Plans 936]

Edit - I make that 18 points for a total of 39 and with so many teams involved this season, that might just be enough.

[SeattleCanary 0]

[quote user="Making Plans"]Edit - I make that 18 points for a total of 39 and with so many teams involved this season, that might just be enough.[/quote]

The sad thing is you''re being generous with the predictions, as was I when I looked at the fixtures yesterday. I picked about the same results as you did, but I know deep down thats saying we are going to be unbeaten in the next 13 games more or less (bar Man C) and I have a bad feeling we aren''t going to win those necessary 4 home games.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

Problem is we have 1 win in 7 games now and on paper the opposition has not been that intimidating. 36 points should be fine but where are those 16 points coming from? playing like we are unless we fluke the odd upset its looking more like 30 points . Things can change quicky but concern is starting to turn to panic. Palace and Sunderland are playing far better than us at the moment. We must have the worst form over the last 5 games of anyone

[Joanna Grey 0]

Yorkshire Canary wrote the following post at 14/01/2014 6:47 AM:

"We must have the worst form over the last 5 games of anyone "

No, the two Welsh Clubs are just as bad.

[lake district canary 4,531]

17 games.   51 points to aim for.  Every game is winnable.

[ricardo 7,347]

A total of 39 points will be more than enough.

[SeattleCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]A total of 39 points will be more than enough.[/quote]

On that assumption, do you believe we will win 6 and draw 1 of the 12 winnable games from our 17 remaining then?

I''d suggest we might cause an upset in one of the other 5 games, but I see little evidence over the first half of the season to give me hope.

[Making Plans 936]

[quote user="Making Plans"]Edit - I make that 18 points for a total of 39 and with so many teams involved this season, that might just be enough.[/quote]Third time lucky - that should of course read "18 points for a total of 38"[quote user="SeattleCanary"]The sad thing is you''re being generous with the predictions[/quote]They

are not really predictions - I was simply looking to see (a) what we

need to do and (b) where our best chances of achieving what we need to

do are.

[ricardo 7,347]

[quote user="SeattleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"]A total of 39 points will be more than enough.[/quote]

On that assumption, do you believe we will win 6 and draw 1 of the 12 winnable games from our 17 remaining then?

I''d suggest we might cause an upset in one of the other 5 games, but I see little evidence over the first half of the season to give me hope.

[/quote]I have no idea. The only certainty is that a lot fewer than 40 points will see us safe. Personally I think we look like getting 38 points.There are many ways to that without needing to win 6 games.eg.    3 wins 9 draws 5 losses4 wins 6 draws 7 losses5 wins 3 draws  9 lossesNone of these look impossible and it''s quite possible that even 35 or 36 points will be safe.

[SeattleCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]I have no idea. The only certainty is that a lot fewer than 40 points will see us safe. Personally I think we look like getting 38 points.There are many ways to that without needing to win 6 games.eg.    3 wins 9 draws 5 losses4 wins 6 draws 7 losses5 wins 3 draws  9 lossesNone of these look impossible and it''s quite possible that even 35 or 36 points will be safe.[/quote]

Agreed. Those 5 games in March are going to be absolutely crucial in us taking points off of the teams around us.

[Alfie54 76]

And importantly if we can we a few games we can get some momentum and confidence, unfortunately the opposite is also true!

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I''d more or less agree with the predictions, although it''ll end up working out that we''ll lose one of the "must win" games and win one of the "impossible" games. Football is funny like that.

[Indy_Bones 441]

[quote user="lake district canary"]17 games.   51 points to aim for.  Every game is winnable.[/quote]Oh Christ, give it a break LDC, it''s getting beyond a joke.On one hand you''re stating that changing the manager is stupid and a gamble, and are then suggesting that we can get maximum points from our remaining games despite winning 1 in the last 7...Every game is NOT winnable, even Arsenal didn''t manage that in their unbeaten season, so please stop posting total drivel FFS!.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="Indy_Bones"][quote user="lake district canary"]17 games.   51 points to aim for.  Every game is winnable.[/quote]Oh Christ, give it a break LDC, it''s getting beyond a joke.On one hand you''re stating that changing the manager is stupid and a gamble, and are then suggesting that we can get maximum points from our remaining games despite winning 1 in the last 7...Every game is NOT winnable, even Arsenal didn''t manage that in their unbeaten season, so please stop posting total drivel FFS!.[/quote]

I sometimes think I speak a different language...............I didn''t say we would win every match, did I ????

If you are going attack my posts at least have the decency to read them  properly and get the meaning of the post before you reply.  

Every match is winnable - ie - there is the potential to win every match we start.  We will win some we will lose some we will draw some. Its not that hard to understand, is it??

[:(]

[SwindonCanary 455]

Just taking one game at a time !

[TIL 1010 4,722]

17 games left and you can write 5 of them off for starters......Man City Arsenal and Liverpool at home plus Man Utd and Chelsea away. If anybody seriously thinks there are points to be had in those games are deluded.

Ricardo says that 37/38 points will be more than enough so let''s cut it back to 36 which means we need another 16 points from 12 games. Our home defeat to Fulham was excused by many as they are our bogey team so how many points will we get in the away game ?

As I have said before games are running out where vital wins are a necessity and if it comes down to the for and against column at the death the picture is not pretty at the moment.

Over to you Lakey to awaken me from what I consider to be stark reality.

[Aggy 752]

The thing with a lot of this is that looking at our recent run, yes, we''ve been poor against some average sides. Unfortunately, the sides below us have had a good run and have closed the gap to 2 or 3 points. What is especially worrying is that none of the relegation placed teams are out of it. Usually by now there are one or two teams who look certs to go down, so you end up with 8 or 9 teams battling it out for that last spot; ie; around a 1 in 8 chance of relegation. At the moment, it''s 9 or 10 going for 3 relegation spots, so a 1 in 3 chance. (I know the odds wouldn''t be worked out exactly like that because of the points teams have already got, but I''m just talking about teams vs relegation places).

However, whilst we''ve been poor in the last 6 games or so, we''re still 5th from bottom, and most of those below us have been in very good form by their standards. So are they going to continue in that good form whilst we continue our poor form? Possibly, but that''s not normally how it happens - usually teams fluctuate.

So it might be close now, but chances are that the teams who have been reasonably comfortable all season - Hull, Swansea, WBA - will have form which levels out and sees them finish reasonably comfortably. Those who have been in the mire for the most part will probably level out in form to stay in it - Sunderland and Palace. The rest, who have been bobbing in and out, will probably find only enough form across the whole of the second half of the season to continue bobbing in and out of relegation places - us, West Ham, Fulham, Cardiff.

If you asked me to stick my neck out and predict, I would say we will be ok. I think we will probably finish 15th or 16th - one of the clubs above us might plummet, and either West Ham or Fulham might find late miraculous form and leapfrog us. We might even drop into the relegation zone at times between now and the end of the season. But I can''t see three of the five below us maintaining good enough form to stay above us.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="TIL 1010"]

17 games left and you can write 5 of them off for starters......Man City Arsenal and Liverpool at home plus Man Utd and Chelsea away. If anybody seriously thinks there are points to be had in those games are deluded.

Ricardo says that 37/38 points will be more than enough so let''s cut it back to 36 which means we need another 16 points from 12 games. Our home defeat to Fulham was excused by many as they are our bogey team so how many points will we get in the away game ?

As I have said before games are running out where vital wins are a necessity and if it comes down to the for and against column at the death the picture is not pretty at the moment.

Over to you Lakey to awaken me from what I consider to be stark reality.

[/quote]

Stark reality will be different from what we think, that is for sure.   The last two seasons saw us beat or draw with every top six club at some point.  The stark reality is that we on a PL roller coaster that is hard to predict.   Trying to pin down what may happen is hard to say.    However, that shear unpredictability could work in our favour.   We are not a million miles off being a good team.    If you read Parma or Lavanches posts, they describe much better than me the good things there are going on within the set up at the moment.  

It needs to improve, without a doubt - but we have Howson, Pilks, Tettey, Guitierez to come in - all of whom might go straight into the first team.  So I''m still positive, but it isn''t going to be easy.  

I wouldn''t write off those last four games either.   Deluded?    I don''t think so - we have beaten Man City - and we gave them a good game at CR last season as well as the win away - we beat Arsenal last season too.   I''m not saying it will happen but writing those games off is a bit premature imo. 

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

The key determinant IMO, is which of those 11 teams are likely to get better over the rest of the season. All of the promoted teams have to keep ''punching above their weight'' just to stay where they are. Sunderland have improved of late, but is it bounce and will it last? I also don''t see where Fulham''s improvement is going to come from but at least West Ham have the promise of Carroll getting fit. I can''t see where Stoke''s improvement is going to come from whereas I can with Swansea and WBA. To survive then, City have to improve more than at least 3 of the others, and I feel there is a good chance of that happening as the injured players return and Gutierrez and any other players coming in also strengthen the squad. That leaves me feeling reasonably confident, but the improvement needs to start with Hull, who have a dire away record.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

It seems strange to think that the likes of Swansea are in the mire nearly as much as us.

1 win versus Hull and if they don''t win, we''re in a better position, like it or not.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

It''s strange because nearly everyone would be happy if we were just 3 points off top half but none of us are happy that we''re 3 points off bottom.

 

 

[TIL 1010 4,722]

[quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="TIL 1010"]

17 games left and you can write 5 of them off for starters......Man City Arsenal and Liverpool at home plus Man Utd and Chelsea away. If anybody seriously thinks there are points to be had in those games are deluded.

Ricardo says that 37/38 points will be more than enough so let''s cut it back to 36 which means we need another 16 points from 12 games. Our home defeat to Fulham was excused by many as they are our bogey team so how many points will we get in the away game ?

As I have said before games are running out where vital wins are a necessity and if it comes down to the for and against column at the death the picture is not pretty at the moment.

Over to you Lakey to awaken me from what I consider to be stark reality.

[/quote]


Stark reality will be different from what we think, that is for sure.   The last two seasons saw us beat or draw with every top six club at some point.  The stark reality is that we on a PL roller coaster that is hard to predict.   Trying to pin down what may happen is hard to say.    However, that shear unpredictability could work in our favour.   We are not a million miles off being a good team.    If you read Parma or Lavanches posts, they describe much better than me the good things there are going on within the set up at the moment.  


It needs to improve, without a doubt - but we have Howson, Pilks, Tettey, Guitierez to come in - all of whom might go straight into the first team.  So I''m still positive, but it isn''t going to be easy.  


I wouldn''t write off those last four games either.   Deluded?    I don''t think so - we have beaten Man City - and we gave them a good game at CR last season as well as the win away - we beat Arsenal last season too.   I''m not saying it will happen but writing those games off is a bit premature imo. 


[/quote]

Lakey for goodness sake wake up and smell the coffee. Last season was then but this is now we are talking about.

[splutcho 173]

Have a feeling it''ll be a ridiculously low total to stay up this year. I think 5 wins will do it, but it''s gonna be tight.

There''s no way we will win all 4 of those "must win" games at home, and it''s probable we won''t remain unbeaten in those "must not lose" games. On the other hand, it''s also unlikely we won''t win at least one of them.

I think we''ll just stay up, just not the way the OP has it down, but if come the end of the season we''ve only survived by a point or two, I''d think the time had come for CH to go. Kind of what Stoke did last summer with Pulis, except not with some donkey coming in.

[splutcho 173]

Also if people are so certain that there is absolutely no way we won''t lose to anyone in the top 6 or 7, I''d advise getting down the bookies sharpish because I''d imagine there''s pretty nice odds on that.

[can u sit down please 0]

[quote user="lake district canary"]17 games.   51 points to aim for.  Every game is winnable.

[/quote]

Shame clueless chris doesn''t agree

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="TIL 1010"]

Lakey for goodness sake wake up and smell the coffee. Last season was then but this is now we are talking about.

[/quote]In a small way, Tilly, I do think  Lakey is right. The chances are that, over the remainder of this season it is highly likely that we will win one (or, whisper it quietly, maybe two) of those "unwinnable" games. It happens to every team, every season. Last season did Reading not beat Everton, and QPR won some other ''write off'' match? It WILL happen.No, what concerns me more is our failure to back this up by winning the more regulation games. Or even getting a draw. Away at Hull, and Palace, Home to Fulham, Cardiff  and Swansea are amongst this season''s litany of examples of this so far. If we carry on tossing these sort of points away with such gay abandon, we will negate all the good work done in the unexpected wins I referred to earlier.As for the points total required ? Well, who knows. I''m sticking by the well tried and trusted 40 pts, as a ''belt and braces'' approach. Rick may well  be right. Rather not put it to the test, and we are quite capable of getting there. But, if we do not take a decent percentage of the ''regulation ''points, we will not have a snowball in hell''s chance. And, at the risk of stating the bleedin'' obvious, the first up of these regulation fixtures is this Sat v Hull.....

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="TIL 1010"][quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="TIL 1010"]

17 games left and you can write 5 of them off for starters......Man City Arsenal and Liverpool at home plus Man Utd and Chelsea away. If anybody seriously thinks there are points to be had in those games are deluded.

Ricardo says that 37/38 points will be more than enough so let''s cut it back to 36 which means we need another 16 points from 12 games. Our home defeat to Fulham was excused by many as they are our bogey team so how many points will we get in the away game ?

As I have said before games are running out where vital wins are a necessity and if it comes down to the for and against column at the death the picture is not pretty at the moment.

Over to you Lakey to awaken me from what I consider to be stark reality.

[/quote]Stark reality will be different from what we think, that is for sure.   The last two seasons saw us beat or draw with every top six club at some point.  The stark reality is that we on a PL roller coaster that is hard to predict.   Trying to pin down what may happen is hard to say.    However, that shear unpredictability could work in our favour.   We are not a million miles off being a good team.    If you read Parma or Lavanches posts, they describe much better than me the good things there are going on within the set up at the moment.   It needs to improve, without a doubt - but we have Howson, Pilks, Tettey, Guitierez to come in - all of whom might go straight into the first team.  So I''m still positive, but it isn''t going to be easy.   I wouldn''t write off those last four games either.   Deluded?    I don''t think so - we have beaten Man City - and we gave them a good game at CR last season as well as the win away - we beat Arsenal last season too.   I''m not saying it will happen but writing those games off is a bit premature imo. 

[/quote]

Lakey for goodness sake wake up and smell the coffee. Last season was then but this is now we are talking about.

[/quote]

Ok, last season was last season.   This season up to now was this season.   From now on is unknown territory.  It could go either way, but I would prefer to carry on thinking we will improve. We have to.

[Making Plans 936]

[quote user="lake district canary"]The stark reality is that we on a PL roller coaster that is hard to predict.  [/quote]It''s the only Roller Coaster I know with no ups

[TIL 1010 4,722]

I detect a movement in your stance Lakey as a few short weeks ago you were positive things would improve but now you prefer to keep thinking things will improve. You were throwing around the word positivity like confetti but you appear to be drifting towards hoping.

Welcome to the real world. It is painful for all of us but like Ricardo I have seen the ups and downs,the comings and goings of managers and star players and it gives me no pleasure to say that I can smell when all is not right at my football club....... that time is now.