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simmo_2

1/5 betfair now, he must be gone

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I don''t understand betting but I suspect that this could be a gut response from angry City fans. I would not be unhappy now if this is true. I just hope that the replacement will be an improvement.

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Shortening odds doesn''t mean it''s going to happen,

It means people are betting on it. Probably a load of Norwich fans. Quite probably no one with any inside information.

Perfect sample that springs to mind, Hooper. In jan his odds were this short at one point! and bets were suspended. Didn''t sign.

It could mean something, but could just as easily mean nothing.

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this is just the bookies playing safe, but when it gets closer to the 1-10 mark its a sure thing

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[quote user="the bristol nest"]I don''t understand betting but I suspect that this could be a gut response from angry City fans. I would not be unhappy now if this is true. I just hope that the replacement will be an improvement.[/quote]If these odds are correct they would likely be based on insider knowledge from the betting company that the situation being bet on is likely to happen. If a large number of fans were betting on something unlikely then they would probably increase odds slightly to encourage more bids that way. A scenario you''ll very likely see for England winning the World Cup later in the year as it''s patently not happening so you want to encourage bids and discourage bids for Brazil / Spain / Argentina with low odds.I would think if the board were fully confident in Chris but the fans wanted him gone they would likely stretch the odds the other way, say 5/1 to encourage more punters to hand over their money with little chance of reward.Of course I may be talking rubbish, we''ll see.

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[quote user="Holtcantshoot"][quote user="the bristol nest"]I don''t understand betting but I suspect that this could be a gut response from angry City fans. I would not be unhappy now if this is true. I just hope that the replacement will be an improvement.[/quote]If these odds are correct they would likely be based on insider knowledge from the betting company that the situation being bet on is likely to happen. If a large number of fans were betting on something unlikely then they would probably increase odds slightly to encourage more bids that way. A scenario you''ll very likely see for England winning the World Cup later in the year as it''s patently not happening so you want to encourage bids and discourage bids for Brazil / Spain / Argentina with low odds.I would think if the board were fully confident in Chris but the fans wanted him gone they would likely stretch the odds the other way, say 5/1 to encourage more punters to hand over their money with little chance of reward.Of course I may be talking rubbish, we''ll see.[/quote]

 

If they had inside knbowledge that it was going to happen they wouldn''t offer 4/5. They''d be bankrupt in an hour.

 

 

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bet fair will balance itself out probably giving even odd or 2/1, at the minute they is an opportunity to make money by backing the bet with betvictor and taking (laying) bets on betfair.

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ITT posters who don''t understand betting. Keep your money in your pockets ladies and gentlemen.If OP means the "Specials - Next Manager To Leave Position" market then you should take note of the massive drift out to 1/3 from 1/5. [Why are you using fractional odds by the way? Decimal much cleaner and clearer especially on a modern exchange.] But if you were so inclined you could take note of the fact that a massive £3,695 has been matched on that market. Not Hughton but the market as a whole. Try the relegation market, also on the exchange, where Norwich sit 6th favourites. £954,348 matched on that market, perhaps a better indicator of where we are as a club. Tonight was a cup game. Against a club we always think we can beat but never do.I hate seeing us lose, I hate to see the BBC headline describe us as woeful, I hate the bickering and whining on here and I hate ignorance.All prices and market matched figures correct at time of posting

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="Holtcantshoot"][quote user="the bristol nest"]I don''t understand betting but I suspect that this could be a gut response from angry City fans. I would not be unhappy now if this is true. I just hope that the replacement will be an improvement.[/quote]If these odds are correct they would likely be based on insider knowledge from the betting company that the situation being bet on is likely to happen. If a large number of fans were betting on something unlikely then they would probably increase odds slightly to encourage more bids that way. A scenario you''ll very likely see for England winning the World Cup later in the year as it''s patently not happening so you want to encourage bids and discourage bids for Brazil / Spain / Argentina with low odds.I would think if the board were fully confident in Chris but the fans wanted him gone they would likely stretch the odds the other way, say 5/1 to encourage more punters to hand over their money with little chance of reward.Of course I may be talking rubbish, we''ll see.[/quote]

 

If they had inside knbowledge that it was going to happen they wouldn''t offer 4/5. They''d be bankrupt in an hour.

 

 

[/quote]

exactly !

if it is insider knowledge of it likely to happen then either one/or both would happen

they

would try to place bets with other companies, who would compare their

betting patterns and if they did not match would not take the bet

or

simply close the book ie no more bets

what still is rather disturbing is that there are still folk who imagine that bookies work on the basis of probability rather than making and balancing a book ie a bookie

what I suggest has happened is that (as GP has already said) is fans now believe that Hughton will be sacked so have placed bets, once the odds have been shortened to reflect those bets (not the probability) other fans have followed and the odds have shortened .... blah .. blah .. blah

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[quote user="Your mother"]ITT posters who don''t understand betting. Keep your money in your pockets ladies and gentlemen.If OP means the "Specials - Next Manager To Leave Position" market then you should take note of the massive drift out to 1/3 from 1/5. [Why are you using fractional odds by the way? Decimal much cleaner and clearer especially on a modern exchange.] But if you were so inclined you could take note of the fact that a massive £3,695 has been matched on that market. Not Hughton but the market as a whole. Try the relegation market, also on the exchange, where Norwich sit 6th favourites. £954,348 matched on that market, perhaps a better indicator of where we are as a club. Tonight was a cup game. Against a club we always think we can beat but never do.I hate seeing us lose, I hate to see the BBC headline describe us as woeful, I hate the bickering and whining on here and I hate ignorance.All prices and market matched figures correct at time of posting[/quote]Dry ''em

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You make a little sense My Mother but the players are not motivated to play for this man as shown by tonights performance and many previous. Mike Ashley is a top businessman and he knew Hughton could not motivate or manage a premiership football club.

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[quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="Your mother"]........I hate seeing us lose, I hate to see the BBC headline describe us as woeful, I hate the bickering and whining on here and I hate ignorance.[/quote]Perhaps football''s not for you then ? [;)][/quote]Swap "football" for "pink un messageboard"

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Im under no illusions on how Betting odds operate, but I got 4/1 last night and felt it was a decent bet so took it. But yeah this is just large numbers of City fans thinking with their hearts.

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Took the 4/1 last night too. £100 coming my way hopefully!

At least I can drown my sorrows with something nice to drink on Saturday night!

In an ideal world, he''ll be gone before then, i''ll get my money, we''ll get a new manager and 3 points vs Hull.

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Yeah, thats a fair call. I basically feel that the chances are its going to be one of the two of them. I personally cant see both getting results at the weekend even though west ham are at home as are we. I wouldnt be shocked for both to be sacked this weekend.

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[quote user="Your mother"][quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="Your mother"]........I hate seeing us lose, I hate to see the BBC headline describe us as woeful, I hate the bickering and whining on here and I hate ignorance.[/quote]Perhaps football''s not for you then ? [;)][/quote]Swap "football" for "pink un messageboard"[/quote]You know you love it really......[:D]

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[quote user="skippdogg"]this is just the bookies playing safe, but when it gets closer to the 1-10 mark its a sure thing[/quote]eh ?so there is an amount of money that once bet will cause the board to sack Hughton ! ! !bookies playing safeoh dearthe bookies do not play safe, they merely adjust the odds to ensure where possible they make a profit on any event ... balance the bookthey do not guessor ''know something''or set odds based on probabilitythat''s why they are called bookmakersnot guessmakers

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I like the bit about how the bookies ''must know something'' - they merely mark the odds down to 1/10 ! They know something is going to happen but will continue to take bets ! !Though all you have to do is to put a bit more money down to get a bit less back ! ! !

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]Took the 4/1 last night too. £100 coming my way hopefully!

At least I can drown my sorrows with something nice to drink on Saturday night!

In an ideal world, he''ll be gone before then, i''ll get my money, we''ll get a new manager and 3 points vs Hull.[/quote]

 

Don''t spend it yet Jimmy. Pochettino is now 1/1 and Hoots is now 3 times the price CUSDP was quoting from Victor. I wonder if he''s the bloke on the side of the train.....

 

 

[;)]

 

 

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Does that mean the bookies know a bit less than last night ?or perhaps a bit more so they are now lengthening the oddsmust make all that guessing rather hardwork

ps if the bookies ''must know something'' why don''t they just go and have a bet with another bookie so they make a big pile of money ........which they would need to pay out all the bets they kept taking when ''they knew something''

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That cabbage canary often overbook and fans have to travel outside of the coach

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