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YankeeCanary

No Matter How You See Things....We're In A Tough Spot

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Last season we had 25 points for the first 19 games. Obviously, we struggled for results during the second half of the season where the first 15 matches of that back half yielded only 13 points, pulling out wins during the final two matches to give us 19 points during the second half of the season.

This season it looks more than likely we will reach the halfway stage with 19 points. Of course, it''s possible that we will get something from the game against

Manchester United but I suspect there isn''t a soul on this forum who

believes we will.

We all have opinions on how we are playing, who is performing, who''s not, is the Hughton team the best one for Norwich or not etc., etc. We all know our final four games this season are against Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. Regardless of various and differing opinions as to whether we are improving or not, I cannot believe there is one single individual who wants us to arrive at the point of tackling those last four games with no more than 34 points secured ( even though it is likely there will be  at least a couple of teams below us with less points than that). Particularly so because when it comes to the teams at the top of the table, the differential between the 1st and 5th position, at the moment, is a mere 5 points. Last season the differential at the halfway point was 13 points. If it remains closer to what it is now they will all be pushing hard until the end of the season. Yet, the high probability is that we will have likely won only 5 matches out of 19 during the first half of this season and we will need to win 5 out of 15 ( equivalent ) simply to arrive at the 34 point tally before tackling those final four.. 

If we lose on Saturday obviously we then will have demonstrated that for the past 38 Premier matches we have yielded exactly a point a game over 38 matches, leaving 15 games to put points on the board before we head into what must surely be the most challenging four match finish anyone could have concocted if they were trying to do so in advance of the fixtures being announced.  There is currently no evidence to suggest we will achieve any greater point yield over those 15 games than we have over the previous 38 matches ( assuming a loss to Manchester United ). Or is there?

For me, I''m off the fence that I have been on for some time. I now firmly believe The Hughton team have shown for some considerable time that they are not getting the best out of the players we have at our disposal for whatever reasons, even taking injuries into account. If the Board have one or two other candidates in mind that they feel meet the grade then I think it is time to take the plunge. We have had opportunities to give ourselves some breathing room in the standings and we have squandered them. We now find ourselves in a position where a couple of "wrong" results will have us either occupying a relegation place or breathing heavily.

  

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Of course, I should have stated , "There is currently no evidence to suggest we will achieve any greater average point yield per game over those 15 games than we have over the previous 38 matches"

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Reading sensible posts like this and Gingerpele''s is far more depressing than the usuals wailing.

Being a fence sitter I can clearly see both sides.

Hughton is obviously being hamstrung by the players he has available. But he also hamstrings himself by his use of players available.

Yes we have spent the most money ever for us. But a lot of teams have as well. We''re paying a lot to stand still.

But then again does Hughton know what to do with some of the signings. Is he playing some simply because they cost a lot. Are some just getting games because they were good last season and he''s hoping they''ll regain form.

Dark and hard times and the board really need to consider the options. Currently we risk relegation with or without Hughton.

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A lot of teams won''t get 40 points this year because there is a big disconnect between the top 10 and the bottom 10.I expect 38 points will be well safe this season.

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I think 36 or 37 could be safe but we have to take into account our poor goal difference. Whatever way you look at it, its going to be very close and nervy going into that last 4 games.

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the rich are getting richer and the rest are scrapping for their prem lives,  with many sides within the relegation zone come the last weekend - it will be that tight for many of the "other"12 sides,  not just city.

 

What I have no doubt about is that we do possess the quality in the sqaud and managerial ability to better last seasons finishing position.   We also have enough injuries,  inconsistent performers & odd tactical choices to relegate us.    Get our seasoned pros fit and the novices (Fer, Redmond, Hooper, RvW etc) to improve their consistency and we will be fine. 

 

My view is this team is one that thrives on confidence more than most,   a couple of small runs is all we need to survive.    Its another tough season (and next year will be no easier - even if we spend a soton/cardiffesque £50m in the summer)

 

I remain ambivalent on CH (under him I think we will not be relegated,  but nor will we be thrilled in most games we watch)

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Looking at it like that its brown trousers time. Cant see the board changing the manager though. Think the footballing world would condemn them if they did. If we were in the relegation zone then they''d have something to point to, but in terms of results, he is achieving enough compared to his rivals to be considered to be doing his job. Think the West Ham and West Brom games were pivotal. Some significant good fortune in both of those games. Wonder if Steve Clarke would still be in his job had West Brom brought their shooting boots...  What do you point to to change the manager? Not in the middle of a bad run, opportunity not taken after heavy defeats, not in the relegation zone

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It has been clear for a few weeks now how this season will shape up, clearly there will be something like ten clubs fighting it out over those three drop places, City are one of them no doubt. It will be tough, yes we spent a lot of money just to stand still, but things havnt been helped by key players getting long term knocks. It''s amazing to think that a win yesterday would have put us in tenth place, but that''s what''s happend and its mainly down to the extended number of clubs at the top end contending this season. Oh, I actually believe that we do stand a good chance of getting a point or even a narrow win against Manure, they are not the team they were and an average Hull City/Tigers side (yes I know they beat us, and we too are average) ran them very close so why cant we do better.........we do have players who can step-up, it would be better if Howson was fit...thought we really missed him yesterday, but I still fancy a point at least.....come on BELIEVE!!!!  Nurse, get me another Sherry...     

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[quote user="ricardo"]A lot of teams won''t get 40 points this year because there is a big disconnect between the top 10 and the bottom 10.I expect 38 points will be well safe this season.[/quote]Not sure where they''re going to come from though. Who''s got a crystal ball?

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Zipper writes, "and the novices (Fer, Redmond, Hooper, RvW etc) to improve their consistency and we will be fine."These players, while new to us, are not novices Zipper. Even Nathan Redmond, young as he is, will be 20 in a little more than a couple of months. Further, he has had the benefit of working with Hughton at Birmingham as well. I don''t want to sound hard on Nathan because, despite mental errors, he is working hard. Someone on another thread pointed out a day or two ago that Redmond is way up near the top of the Premier list in creating chances. If that''s true, then we need to at least play him more on the right wing so that balls ( like the great ball he swung in from the right against Fulham ) are curling away rather than towards the goalkeeper. We have our strikers back. It''s their job to be coached to look for such balls aggressively. We all know that Redmond scored a great goal against Southampton coming in from the left but other teams are on to this and it''s a far smaller percentage play than having him repeatedly doing what he does from the right. It''s not good enough to just say we have to improve our consistency. We need to maximize the creation of the things we are capable of doing and put more chances away. This is what would help other players grow in confidence.  All savvy observers understand the points made by Ricardo and JF. It''s really stating the obvious. The question is do we stand a better chance of reaching that level with a change of management. I now believe we do. We shall see.

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Yes, we are in a tough spot, as our 7 or 8 other teams. That was always going to be the case, and if we stay up we will be in a similar spot next year too. And the reason is wages.

We may have spent more on transfer fees than normal, but we will still be paying amongst the lowest salaries in the league.

We will not pay the wages of even one of Scott Parker, Berbatov, Riise, Senderos, Richardson or Bent, never mind all of them. Fulham should never have been anywhere near the bottom 3 with the squad and resources at their disposal. That''s how bad Jol was.

The issue with Hughton is really to do with style (or lack of it) isn''t it? That''s why people still want him out even when we are winning games. The trouble is I doubt if anyone else who would take a significantly different approach with our resources. Malky certainly wouldn''t - Cardiff were very defensive under him and awful timewasters. Lambert really did seem to be the exception in his approach.

Personally I think we have to bite the bullet for now and, whatever happens, make a change in the summer.

Apart from anything else we would be a far more attractive proposition for new managers either as a Prem club that''s been there for 3 years or as a top Championship team with a squad capable of bouncing back.

I can not see any manager currently doing well wanting to come here in mid-season to join a relegation dogfight (even if their employers allowed them to talk to us, which is unlikely). PS does anyone have a clue why this won''t show proper paragraph breaks any more? Used to post through "compatability" mode but that seems to have disappeared, and shift+return doesn''t work either.

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My fear is that we will continue to coast on roughly the same points as games played and then find ourselves 3/4 points off the drop with those dreaded final 4 matches.

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All savvy observers understand the points made by Ricardo and JF. It''s really stating the obvious. The question is do we stand a better chance of reaching that level with a change of management. I now believe we do. We shall see.

Thats the big gamble isn''t it, stick or twist? I am firmly in the twist camp and believe that a fresh impetus of ideas and approach will breath new life into the team and also the matchday crowd, where the atmosphere now is a poor as I can ever remember. But that is not a certainty and neither is it a certainty that Hughton will take us down. I feel that a big defeat tomorrow would be the ideal time to make that change but I don''t see the board doing that and feel he is here for the season now.

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The thing for me though, is last season, when we won games, I could see that it was a direct result of Hughton''s tactics. We ground out victories against Arsenal and Man Utd by manageing to get the goal, but then defending wonderfully. We should have won against Arsenal at The Emirates too until the ref stepped in. In those games we had those teams beat because they couldnt break us down. Arsenal were dead and buried, running out of ideas, getting frustrated, unable to string passes together. So whilst I didnt enjoy the football last season, I could at least see that we had a defence to be proud of, and that we were winning games due to that strength. But this season, I can think of a single game where I feel we have one BECAUSE of Hughton''s game plan. The two games that come to my mind are West Ham, where we were awful and coasting to defeat until Jaaskalinen gifted us a penalty and the impetus of scoring changed the game. West Brom should have put us to bed, we held the one goal lead out of luck and their wastefulness with the second goal flattering to deceive as they pushed for an equaliser.

Last season I could see the game plan and when it worked, there was the feeling of mission accomplished. I dont know what were supposed to be good at now or what the gameplan is. I think we were very fortunate to win both of those games, on the balance of play we probably deserved to lose them both and we''d have 6 points less and feeling a lot less comfortable. Neither of those games were resounding vindications for Hughtons tactics/gameplan

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Good post Yankee and there''s no doubt that we are in a tough spot. But then so are half the league. A blanket consisting of just 7 points covers the whole bottom half and we are just 2 points from being top half coming up to the halfway stage.

 

Does anybody think we should be better than mid-table or are we where we''re expected to be. It would be nice to sit comfortably in the top half but I don''t expect it. We are where I expected us to be. Because to be fair we are pushing for top half in a league where there''s nothing much between 11 teams. Or we are flirting with relegation in a league where there''s nothing much between 11 teams. I guess the last result determines which of those views  is most prevalent at the time.

 

 

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I don''t think a big defeat tomorrow would prompt an immediate change because whatever the result the more significant game is at Palace on NYD. Preparing for that one with a caretaker in charge would be crazy.

But after that there''s 10 days to the next league game - and that''s at Goodison , so not really one we''d expect anything from - and nearly 3 weeks before Hull arrive for another key game.

So potentially there could be a change before then, with the transfer window still open, and at least some chance of a new man having time to prepare a team.

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[quote user="Absent Friend"]I don''t think a big defeat tomorrow would prompt an immediate change because whatever the result the more significant game is at Palace on NYD. Preparing for that one with a caretaker in charge would be crazy.

But after that there''s 10 days to the next league game - and that''s at Goodison , so not really one we''d expect anything from - and nearly 3 weeks before Hull arrive for another key game.

So potentially there could be a change before then, with the transfer window still open, and at least some chance of a new man having time to prepare a team.[/quote]You''re whistling in the dark, CH will still be here in May.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Absent Friend"]I don''t think a big defeat tomorrow would prompt an immediate change because whatever the result the more significant game is at Palace on NYD. Preparing for that one with a caretaker in charge would be crazy. But after that there''s 10 days to the next league game - and that''s at Goodison , so not really one we''d expect anything from - and nearly 3 weeks before Hull arrive for another key game. So potentially there could be a change before then, with the transfer window still open, and at least some chance of a new man having time to prepare a team.[/quote]

You''re whistling in the dark, CH will still be here in May.
[/quote]

 

Lose at Palarse, and add that to defeats to Man Utd (a given on yesterdays performance) and Fulham, and I''m not so sure CH is as secure as you may think. With that run of results we would almost certainly be bottom three, and it would also give a new manager most of the January window to try and do some business. I''m not sure that the board would sit on their hands in those circumstances.

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When I began this thread, just before Christmas, I said there was no clear evidence to suggest we would achieve beyond  a point a game in advance of having to face the tough last four games of the season. Unfortunately, not only is that trend line still the case, but we have also now reached the point where our fate, at the moment, is no longer in our own hands. We currently depend upon the poor results of others to avoid the drop.  Further, at the top end of the table and, given our last four games, it is continuing to look like all those teams will have something to fight for as the end of the season approaches.

 

It is clear that we have had more than enough opportunities to avoid putting ourselves in the position we are in, and we have squandered them. The good news is that we at least have enough teams still below us and we have the opportunity of some winnable games coming up to improve our station. However, the question is do the players and the management team have the heart required to go after a win? I remember another poster, Parma, stating a while back that quote, "draws were just as important as wins", unquote. It wasn''t true then and it''s not true now. We need a win against Sunderland next Saturday. We need management and the players to come out of the dressing room and go out on to the field both in our setup and aggressiveness to seek that win. Of course we could lose the game by being aggressive but, and I feel I''m not alone in this thought, I would rather we either lose or tie in a manner that demonstrates a passion to win than achieve a similar result by being  overly cautious. We''ve squandered too many opportunities by playing that card. I want the Sunderland players to leave the field after the match next week with their heads down knowing that, although they have three games in hand on us, they are a huge seven points back. OTBC.

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Looking through this thread I see that my 2 comments in December (points totals and fate of CH) have been remarkably prescient.That being the case I will make another............Anything less than 3 points against Sunderland will mean that it''s more likely than not, we will be playing Championship footy next season.

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[quote user="ricardo"]Looking through this thread I see that my 2 comments in December (points totals and fate of CH) have been remarkably prescient.That being the case I will make another............Anything less than 3 points against Sunderland will mean that it''s more likely than not, we will be playing Championship footy next season.[/quote]

I think we are already staring championship football in the face. Too many chances gone begging, going right back to Hull away (the first of many chances squandered this season).

The simple truth is we are not good enough for this league. We''ve struggled against promoted teams and been hammered against the bigger teams. Can''t defend, or score. I for one hold the management responsible for it (as I would be in my job).

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Yankee was right in hos OP and there has been no improvement since that time. Luckily for us what I said then remains true and we are in much the same league position. Coming up for 3 months later and we''ve won another 10 points. In the same period Fulham have won 8, Cardiff 8, Swansea 9, Hull 10, WBA 11, Sunderland 12, Palace 12, West Ham 13 and Stoke 13. The whole bottom half has hardly changed. During that time West Ham had a run of 4 wins on the trot and yet they only picked up 3 points more than us over the period.

 

I think the feeling that we don''t deserve to be out of the bottom three annoys many fans. On face value we don''t but very rarely do any of the bottom half clubs seem to cash in on the poor form of those around them. But the fact that other clubs haven''t taken advantage of our poor form has probably stopped the board gambling on the dead cat bounce. If there is such a thing. Because the three clubs with less points than us over that period have already had their dead cat bounce and in Fulham''s case twice.

 

 

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