ricardo 7,239 Posted November 25, 2013 Last year at this stage of the season I made my first relegation prediction stating that NCFC would not be relegated and based on my research of the whole of Premier League history I laid my cards on the table and predicted that it would be 3 from 5 (Villa, Southampton, Wigan, Reading, QPR.). This proved to be spot on, we were safe and 3 of those 5 did indeed go down.This is what my research tells me:-In 21 seasons of the Premier League 64 teams have been relegated (4 in 94/95 due to reduction in number of clubs). Of those 64 subsequently relegated clubs 54, ( 84%) had averaged a point a game or less after 12 matches played.In 11 of those 21 seasons all 3 subsequently relegated clubs had averaged less than a point a game after 12 matches and in the other 10 seasons, 2 out of 3 were relegated.The teams with less than a point a game this season are:-Norwich 11 pointsW Ham 10 pointsFulham 10 pointsPalace 7 pointsSunderland 7 pointsSo unless this season differs from every other Premiership season there is a 100% chance of 2 of these 5 being relegated and a better than 50% chance that all 3 will come from this group.The only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93 Middsboro 16 points94/95 Norwich 19 points96/97 Middsboro 13 points97/98 Palace 15 points98/99 Charlton 15 points00/01 Man City 14 points07/08 Reading 13 points08/09 Middsboro 17 points09/10 Hull City 16 points10/11 Blackpool 14 pointsPoints to consider this season:-1. People often say that there is always a team that drops into the relegation positions late on. This is not born out by the facts. 84% of relegated teams have accumulated only 12 points or less after 12 games. 2. This season the gap to the next group of clubs, (Cardiff, Hull,Stoke and perhaps Villa) is still very tight and 2 of them are promoted clubs that have had unexpectedly good starts.3. Last season Villa and Southampton had less points at this stage than we have now and both survived.4. Relegated clubs usually have the worst goal differences and in this respect its not a good omen for us.My conclusion from this is that in May 2014 its going to be touch and go whether we get a further season in the Premier League. At the moment all we can be certain of is that 2 of the present bottom 5 will be playing Championship football next season.I''ll have another look at Xmas when I feel pretty sure that I can put names to at least 2 of them with 100% certainty. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBFLECK 131 Posted November 25, 2013 Well all I can say is that I just don''t feel confident about survival this season at all. I hope that I am proved wrong, but it is just so depressing watching City at the moment. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted November 25, 2013 If I had to choose 3 from that 5 then it would be Palace, Sunderland and Us i''m afraid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="JF"]If I had to choose 3 from that 5 then it would be Palace, Sunderland and Us i''m afraid.[/quote]but don''t forget that in nearly half the seasons the third club isn''t in this group so its by no means all black at this stage. Remember, nobody gets relegated in November.Its still to early for anything other than generalizations but Palace and Sunderland already have awesome tasks ahead of them. They are already looking at better than 1.25 points a game in order to reach 40 points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,351 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"]The only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93 Middsboro 16 points94/95 Norwich 19 points96/97 Middsboro 13 points97/98 Palace 15 points98/99 Charlton 15 points00/01 Man City 14 points07/08 Reading 13 points08/09 Middsboro 17 points09/10 Hull City 16 points10/11 Blackpool 14 points[/quote] Hull for the double then Rickyyyy. They''ve only got 14 points this time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 25, 2013 We''ve plenty of straws left to clutch at Nigel, of the 7 clubs we haven''t played yet, 3 are below us (the bottom 3). It could all look very different by Xmas. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Juler 141 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"]At the moment all we can be certain of is that 2 of the present bottom 5 will be playing Championship football next season.[/quote]Some interesting statistics, however I''d not use the word "certain". Using your logic Wigan were certain to go down when they were bottom at New Year, however they managed to escape, so I''d agree with "most likely", but "certain" is a little too strong for my liking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="Matt Juler"][quote user="ricardo"]At the moment all we can be certain of is that 2 of the present bottom 5 will be playing Championship football next season.[/quote]Some interesting statistics, however I''d not use the word "certain". Using your logic Wigan were certain to go down when they were bottom at New Year, however they managed to escape, so I''d agree with "most likely", but "certain" is a little too strong for my liking.[/quote]Errr, but they didn''t.Not in this Universe anyway.[;)] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted November 25, 2013 Fair analysis. We''ve definitely had a tough start with only 2 teams left to play from the top9 in the table going through to halfway. The key is to take advantage of the easier fixtures coming up.No denying its a concern. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Brightside 0 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"][quote user="JF"]If I had to choose 3 from that 5 then it would be Palace, Sunderland and Us i''m afraid.[/quote]but don''t forget that in nearly half the seasons the third club isn''t in this group so its by no means all black at this stage. Remember, nobody gets relegated in November.Its still to early for anything other than generalizations but Palace and Sunderland already have awesome tasks ahead of them. They are already looking at better than 1.25 points a game in order to reach 40 points.[/quote]At the moment I would put all of the bottom 5 in real danger and with 26 games to go and us all needing more than one point per game to reach 38/40 points any of us could face the drop. The thing that at present puts us in real trouble is our proven inability to adapt and implement positive changes in order to get the results and points we need. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,447 Posted November 25, 2013 I''ve watched the permutations for 30 years now and a great guide is the situation at 30th November. I agree about the point per game rule. You ate correct Ricardo. It means for me Saturday means mote than anything because anything but a win means a high chance of relegation. Win, and its a chance to do well. A draw will simply not be enough. And I will actually lose faith in this present Board if there is no action at the weekend if we don''t get a positive result. It''s a poor situation because as other posters have noted its dreadful that fans and manager lurch from one fixture to the next as ''must win'' games. That is now way to keep going and not healthy for our club. I hope the Board acts and soon. We shouldn''t be in a situation where our investment is,being wasted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellowfuture 71 Posted November 25, 2013 Interesting analysis Ricardo, I followed your predictions with interest last season, your logic was good good and your analysis spot on.I agree it is going to be a tough season, not just for us but for a number of teams who have all invested and improved their squads.I think we have a better squad than most of those in the mix and despite our current injury problems, the depth of our squad and having money available in January I believe will see us through.We have had a really tough start to the season, some very poor results but also some encouraging performances, we are not far away from finding some consistency if individual errors can be cut out.I expect a win on Saturday and a lifting of spirits amongst our support. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
havemyhowsonit 0 Posted November 25, 2013 Past stats don''t make any difference to this season we are in. We have 11 points in 16th place. That''s all that matters Keep playing the way we have been no stat will save us from the bottom 3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 25, 2013 [quote user="alartz"]Past stats don''t make any difference to this season we are in. We have 11 points in 16th place. That''s all that matters Keep playing the way we have been no stat will save us from the bottom 3.[/quote]If stats meant nothing the bookmakers couldn''t make a book, so obviously they do mean something.I''ve put my cards on the table and told you at least 2 of the present bottom 5 will be relegated with 100% certainty. It is entirely possible that we will be one of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YankeeCanary 0 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"][quote user="alartz"]Past stats don''t make any difference to this season we are in. We have 11 points in 16th place. That''s all that matters Keep playing the way we have been no stat will save us from the bottom 3.[/quote]If stats meant nothing the bookmakers couldn''t make a book, so obviously they do mean something.I''ve put my cards on the table and told you at least 2 of the present bottom 5 will be relegated with 100% certainty. It is entirely possible that we will be one of them.[/quote] Yes, Ricardo, you have put your cards on the table but.....they are different cards than you have played earlier in the season when you were fairly strong in your opinion that we would not be one of them. You have two packs of cards, don''t you? [:D] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
William Darby 0 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"][quote user="alartz"]Past stats don''t make any difference to this season we are in. We have 11 points in 16th place. That''s all that matters Keep playing the way we have been no stat will save us from the bottom 3.[/quote]If stats meant nothing the bookmakers couldn''t make a book, so obviously they do mean something.I''ve put my cards on the table and told you at least 2 of the present bottom 5 will be relegated with 100% certainty. It is entirely possible that we will be one of them.[/quote]That''s brave mate. IMO Hull Stoke or Cardiff could easily slip down. Plus (it''s a bit of a cliche) nothing is 100% certain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dubai Mark 0 Posted November 26, 2013 Good stuff Ricardo and I dont see it that you have two packs of cards, surely you were saying how you saw it then, and this is about facts and you are simply now commenting on the situation right now. I certainly thought that we would be clear of the drop zone this season based on the signings the club had made, but to be honest at that time I was not really considering the fact that other clubs were also strengthening what were probably better squads in the first place, so I am having to adjust my expectations a little unfortunately based on what has happened so far.Anyway, this season seems to be shaping up to be one where there could well be something like eight clubs battling to keep out of the bottom three and we are certainly one of them right now. When thinking clearly, and looking at the bigger picture and problems other clubs have, whilst this coming Saturday regardless of the result at Newcastle United was always going to be a crucial match (possibly "the" crucial match), even if we lose (please no), it will not mean we will get relegated....just trying to be positive there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,232 Posted November 26, 2013 Still 2/3 of the season to go and our fate will be sealed in the next 21 games. Our last 5 games are on paper the worst you can really want to have if you are battling relegation. So to reach that mystical 40 points we would need to pick up 29 points in 21 games, that would require a 1.4 points per game average, something of a tough ask. I know over the course of the season that all teams play the same big clubs but when you play them in the season has a big bearing on the result too. I tend to agree that there will probably be more twists through this year and Hull, Stoke & Cardiff will be in that mis too after Christmas so I think you can take your pick of 3 from 8or 9 clubs. Good piece though ricardo. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reggie Strayshun 0 Posted November 26, 2013 I''ve been thinking much along the same lines for some time, Indy . Unless you are one of the usual happy clapper suspects, the likelihood of us picking up more than a point from the last five games is pretty low. so we have another 21 games to reach the 40 point mark.On the basis that Clueles Chris appears to have written off our away fixtures, that is , in fact 11 games. So we have to win nearly all our home games to achieve that. It aint going to happen. Unless there are big changes either in mood or personnel, it''s NCFC for the drop along with Palace and one other. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scottlarock 3 Posted November 26, 2013 Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="Scottlarock"]Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word.[/quote]Well its a free country and anyone could have researched the same info given a bit of time. For my part what it showed is that the pattern for the season is very quickly set in stone with very little movement of clubs up or down the ladder.After 12 games there are usually between 5 and 7 teams on less than a point a game so it is also true to say that about half those in that position will survive. eg Villa and Southampton were down on 8 and 9 points but both survived. It is by no means all black for NCFC at this stage but we should certainly be concerned. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="alartz"]Past stats don''t make any difference to this season we are in. We have 11 points in 16th place. That''s all that matters Keep playing the way we have been no stat will save us from the bottom 3.[/quote]If stats meant nothing the bookmakers couldn''t make a book, so obviously they do mean something.I''ve put my cards on the table and told you at least 2 of the present bottom 5 will be relegated with 100% certainty. It is entirely possible that we will be one of them.[/quote] Yes, Ricardo, you have put your cards on the table but.....they are different cards than you have played earlier in the season when you were fairly strong in your opinion that we would not be one of them. You have two packs of cards, don''t you? [:D] [/quote]Thats right, the first is based on gut feeling and no doubt a little wishful thinking.The second is based on the data.At this stage we need to be concerned, but its by no means desperation stakes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yelloow Since 72 53 Posted November 26, 2013 I think your analysis is about right, Ricky. Like others, I''d still include Cardiff and Hull in the mix, because promoted teams often do better in the first half of the season than the second. A lot will also depend on injuries for all the teams in the mix. I don''t make any predictions until half the season has been played out and a larger number of games is used to form the judgement. Perhaps I''m not as brave as you Ricky! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJP 79 Posted November 26, 2013 I''d be very surprised if Palace and Sunderland are playing Premier League football next season. Then it''s one from the six teams above them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chelmsford Canary 0 Posted November 26, 2013 West HamFulhamPalace I think Sunderland will do enough, and same for ourselves. Hull and Cardiff will be dragged further down but be ok. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
William Darby 0 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="Scottlarock"]Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word.[/quote]I heard this too. The Moose recited it verbatim. It went through my mind, either...A) The Moose reads the Pink unB) Rick cut and pasted from elsewhere and said it was his work.[:)] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="John from the Tomorrow People"][quote user="Scottlarock"]Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word.[/quote]I heard this too. The Moose recited it verbatim. It went through my mind, either...A) The Moose reads the Pink unB) Rick cut and pasted from elsewhere and said it was his work.[:)] [/quote]I don''t cut and paste and a simple search for "Rickys Early Relegation Predictions" will show you my post from last year at this time.Whoever he is has used my research. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,232 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="John from the Tomorrow People"][quote user="Scottlarock"]Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word.[/quote]I heard this too. The Moose recited it verbatim. It went through my mind, either...A) The Moose reads the Pink unB) Rick cut and pasted from elsewhere and said it was his work.[:)] [/quote]Or C) Ricardo is The Moose! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="Indy"][quote user="John from the Tomorrow People"][quote user="Scottlarock"]Ricardo......this post was just used word for word, stat for stat on Talk sport this morning, not for a Norwich purpose, a general relegation round up. It was practically recited word for word.[/quote]I heard this too. The Moose recited it verbatim. It went through my mind, either...A) The Moose reads the Pink unB) Rick cut and pasted from elsewhere and said it was his work.[:)] [/quote]Or C) Ricardo is The Moose![/quote]I could stand in a pond with water weed hanging off my ears if its any help.[:D] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lappinitup 629 Posted November 26, 2013 [quote user="ricardo"]I could stand in a pond with water weed hanging off my ears if its any help.[:D][/quote]If the pond was filled with Peroni and the weed was the right sort, I think I''d join you Ricky. [:D] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites